Wednesday, December 29, 2010
2011 Prediction For Markets
As the year draws to a close, I get more and more queries as to what's in store for 2011. My view is that I think we will have a super bull market in most of Asia and other emerging markets.
What we had in 2010 is by and large still muted and did not have the requisite liquidity participation by private investors. 2010 was largely dominated by funds flow and institutional rebalancing.
In Malaysia, retail participation was still low. There is no doubt that there is ample liquidity on the sidelines, although much of it is actually in properties. Those in it would have had a fantastic run over the last 4-5 years, more incredibly brushing aside the global financial crisis merrily along the way.
Having a view is easy, justifying it is harder. Even if I can justify it brilliantly, if it does not come true, its pretty pathetic to me. Hence predicting and having it come to reality is more important than justifying or arguing it well.
So, what is the basis for my views, they are not that important anyway, I could b.s. my way very well. I think its more important that the weight you attribute to a person's view is their track record and the integrity of commentary. Its been nearly 6 years, not every post was a gem, but I hope the readers will be able say to themselves "enough said, say no more".
But I am only confident of the first 6 months, I cannot tell for the second half because I believe markets will overshoot in the first half, and that could bring the markets to highly vulnerable levels then, which would make prediction useless.
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