Wednesday, December 29, 2010

2011 Prediction For Markets


As the year draws to a close, I get more and more queries as to what's in store for 2011. My view is that I think we will have a super bull market in most of Asia and other emerging markets.

What we had in 2010 is by and large still muted and did not have the requisite liquidity participation by private investors. 2010 was largely dominated by funds flow and institutional rebalancing.


In Malaysia, retail participation was still low. There is no doubt that there is ample liquidity on the sidelines, although much of it is actually in properties. Those in it would have had a fantastic run over the last 4-5 years, more incredibly brushing aside the global financial crisis merrily along the way.


Having a view is easy, justifying it is harder. Even if I can justify it brilliantly, if it does not come true, its pretty pathetic to me. Hence predicting and having it come to reality is more important than justifying or arguing it well.


So, what is the basis for my views, they are not that important anyway, I could b.s. my way very well. I think its more important that the weight you attribute to a person's view is their track record and the integrity of commentary. Its been nearly 6 years, not every post was a gem, but I hope the readers will be able say to themselves "enough said, say no more".


But I am only confident of the first 6 months, I cannot tell for the second half because I believe markets will overshoot in the first half, and that could bring the markets to highly vulnerable levels then, which would make prediction useless.

9 comments:

Buyer said...

Hey S.Dali,

Looking forward your 2011 talk/seminar.. :-)


Regards,
Buyer

offstonee said...

My next year prediction is rather bearish, the main problem will be food inflation that will further trigger the rise of interest rate, this will dampen the stock market and property bubble.

We are entering the final stage of hot money effect rather than sustainable foreign investment.

kl said...

Retailers, especially the less informed, have lost faith in speculative equity activities. In smaller towns where many have surplus cash from their swiftlet, oil palm and rubber cultivation, they reinvest in more land. Property prices are sky high around these areas. They say the stock market is a con game; here today, gone tomorrow. Land will always be there. Who can blame them for thinking this way? So, will there be a retail equity boom in 2011? Maybe, but not a super run unless the monied retailers participate.

value investing in malaysia said...

Dali,

any update on Evergreen?

solomon said...

My best bet is the worst IPO- JCY. Perhaps nothing to lose from here.

Been back to Ipoh, purchasing power of consumer are getting momentum....yau cha kui for Rm1.50 still can get people to buy.....slowly it will catch up with KL, Especially with the Electric railway

sctanlam said...

tks Dali. have been following you for some time. take heart no one is perfect. you are one the best. happy new year and cheers.

soonyeah said...

Dali,

So far it has been a good reading from your blog.

Every thing you like... will shot up until now I got no chance to buy except looking at the sideline.

Nobody can 100% predict the future. If you can justified your view with facts and figure, that is good enough. I believe you did well on that. So please keep it up.

BTW, what is going on IJM today ? Like Freefalling. Marriage not successful ??

steven said...

What can you say about YTLE and it price target?

Hirofumi said...

Hi Dali,

Happy New Year mate!!!

Im just curious, what is your take on the Hang Seng???

Hmmm

Thanks!