Bangkok (Really) Dangerous

The Thais still don't know what they really want. Three years on and they are still at it. As neighbours, we need to keep watch on why they are still at it. The King is still not interfering, and it looks increasingly likely that it will be up to the King to make a call. The shooting of Sondhi Limtongkul (yellow shirts' leader) indicates that things are getting to a boiling point and some of the more extreme members are resorting to desperate measures which does not jive with the spirit of the protests from both sides - many are wondering what have they created. Unrest left to fester will always see bad hats trying increasingly ruthless strategies to win the battle - it is not a nice development.

• The government was once again surrounded by protesters Mar 26-Apr 14, 2009, this time called the Red Shirts, a.k.a. United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD). The protests underscore the ongoing political rift in the country between Thaksin supporters and opponents despite the formation of a new government led by the Democrats.
• Short term risks remain for more clashes and unrest which may spread into the provinces. Prolonged prosecution of the arrested Red Shirts could cause simmering dissent. Thais in the provinces still aspire to democracy in the sense that their majority votes will produce a government of their choosing. It appears the government fully realizes that if it fails to alleviate economic hardships in the months ahead, dissatisfaction could worsen political instability.

Economic Repercussions

• Ongoing political instability will worsen Thailand's looming recession as it may disrupt much-needed fiscal stimulus spending at a time when foreign investor confidence has been fragile since Thaksin was deposed 3 years ago.
• Fitch and Standard & Poor's downgraded Thai sovereignt debt, which would raise the cost of financing a growing budget deficit.
  
• Late 2008 airport blockade cost economy $500 million. Further losses may ensue from damage to tourist confidence. Tourist expenditure is approx. 10% of GDP.

Political Context


• Red Shirts accuse key privy councilors in the current government (i.e. General Prem Tinsulanonda, the king's adviser) of being involved in the overthrow of Dr. Thaksin's government in Sept 2006. They demand the resignation of these individuals and PM Abhisit to restore true democracy in Thailand. Protests are co-led by Jakrapob Penkair, ousted minister facing lese majeste charges
• Street protests revive old battle line between Thaksin opponents (Bangkok elite, assorted royalist groups and elements of the military, Democrat Party, PAD) and Thaksin supporters (poor rural and urban working-class masses, UDD, PTP or Phue Thai Party formerly known as PPP under PM Sundarajev and formerly known as TRT under Thaksin)
• Anti-Thaksin PAD (People's Alliance for Democracy) or the 'Yellow Shirts' claims Thailand's rural majority — who gave landslide election victories to the Thaksin camp — is too poorly educated to responsibly choose their representatives and says they are susceptible to vote buying. PAD wants the country to abandon the system of 'one-person, one-vote', and instead have a mixed system in which most representatives are chosen by profession and social group

Timeline: Political crisis has entered its 3rd year

• Apr 14, 2009: Protest leaders called off rally after being surrounded by troops
• Apr 13 2009: Bangkok erupts in violent clashes between military and protesters
• Apr 12 2009: PM Abhisit declares state of emergency. Thaksin addresses his supporters via phone and video link and calls for peaceful revolution
• Apr 11 2009: Protesters break into ASEAN summit in Pattaya. ASEAN summit canceled
• Mar 26 2009: Government offices in Bangkok surrounded by anti-Abhisit protesters
• Mar 21 2009: PM Abhisit receives 176 no-confidence votes, 246 confidence votes from Parliament after PTP-led censure debate
• Dec 15 2008: Democrat Party's Abhisit Vejjajiva elected as Prime Minister
• Dec 6 2008: The 3 ruling parties reconstituted under new guises. Democrat Party and representatives of smaller parties formed new coalition government of at least 250 MPs. Phue Thai Party (the reincarnation of PPP) said it may contest Democrat bid to form a coalition government
• Dec 3 2008: Airports reopened after they were blockaded by protesters
• Dec 2 2008: Constitutional court disbanded the coalition government (as demanded by protesters) and banned its executives from government for 5 years
• Dec 1 2008: Standard & Poor's lowered economic outlook for Thailand due to chance of another military coup
• Nov 23 2008: Protesters blockade airports, halting cargo and passenger flights
  
• Oct 21 2008: Thaksin found guilty in Ratchadaphisek land case, sentenced to 2yrs in jail
• Oct 20 2008: Top army general called for PM Somchai's resignation
• Oct 6-7 2008: PAD besieged parliament to demand dissolution of House
• Sep 17 2008: Parliament elects Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin's brother-in-law, as new PM
• Sep 14 2008: Emergency rule ends
• Sep 9 2008: Constitution Court disqualified Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej from the premiership on conflict of interest charges related to his role in hosting two television cooking programs while in office. The ruling will dissolve Samak's cabinet in 30 days
• Sep 2 2008: Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej imposed a state of emergency in Bangkok after clashes between anti-government protesters and supporters of the administration broke out after Thailand Election Commission ruled unanimously in favor of ruling party PPP's dissolution on account of electoral fraud by PPP deputy leader Yongyuth
• May 2008: Office Minister Jakrapob Penkair resigns on lese majeste charges that he denounced the monarchy at a speech to the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand
• Jan 2008: PPP forms coalition government after falling short of a majority - only 232 seats secured in 480-seat parliament. None of 7 parties won majority
• 2007: The year under the junta was chock full of surprises for Thai markets, with capital controls, populist rhetoric, economic policy indecision, violence in the muslim south and elsewhere, uncertain timing of return to democracy, elections postponed 2x, draft constitution less democratic than hoped - Senate half appointed, half elected - but passed anyway with only 58% of votes cast

p/s photos: Aum Patcharapa Chaichua

Thai-riffic & Thai-tanic News

The civil unrest in Thailand is getting tiresome. First you the yellow shirts (democracy guys) trying to oust a so called puppet government apparently controlled by the exiled Thaksin Shinawatra. Well they protested and blocked off the airport, and finally succeeded. Now the yellow shirts are happy with the suave new PM, now comes the red shirts, so called Thaksin loyalists, but protesting under the banner of justice as well. Surely there cannot be two camps calling for fuller democracy. Red shirts are more violent and unruly and have started to fight with the army, and this would really piss the army off. The army is a very important factor in Thailand politics as the military has held countless coups, which basically takes over the running of the government pending fresh elections or decisions, before handing back power to the "right person/party".

Surprisingly, the King has not yet said anything. The yellow shirts campaign was based on the loyal followers of the King (yellow being the colour of the King). Once and for all, have a fair elections and the King must come out and say something definitive. I shudder if anything happens to the King now as he is quite old and has not been well of late. Then its really total chaos and probably an immediate military rule, and this time the military could very well govern for a very very long time.
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In other news, before I get to more Thai-riffic developments. Apparently now local police are setting up roadblocks to check cars for pirated DVDs, CDs and VCDs. Need I say more?
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Now for the luckiest guy in Thailand award. This guy married two very beautiful nurses, who happens to be twins as well. Life is good.



Subject: Lucky Man Marries Thai Twins!
(Translated from the Thai Rath Newspaper)

After Mr Wichai (Tao), aged 24, from Samut Songkram province, who earns his living by dealing in old goods, got married to gorgeous twins Ms Sirintara and Ms Thipawan 22, he vouched his sincerest 'equal love' for both of them!

Mr Wichai, just yesterday, got married in a grand ceremony to both twins simultaneously.

On being interviewed by Thai Rath reporters, Mr Wichai declared wholeheartedly that he didn't see much problem in having to perform tiresome marital duties with two wives.

In the engagement ceremony before the wedding, Mr Wichai successfully offered a dowry of eight baht of gold and 80,000 baht EACH for his lovely darlings.

Both families celebrated the marriage with joy and were said to be delighted for the threesome.

Mr Wichai told the press that he had been best of friends with his neighbouring twins since they were children.

'When I grew older, I would walk past their house each morning and try to decide for myself which one I fancied more, but it was darn impossible - I adored BOTH of them - I just couldn't decide which one of them to chat up....!'
He went on to say, 'For three continuous years all three of us would go on dates together, until there was one day when I couldn't stand the frustration any longer and told them, 'I love you and want to marry you BOTH''

The fortunate Mr Wichai, instead of getting a slap in the face, was overjoyed when both girls admitted to having sworn all along that they wished to marry the same man!

'It wasn't easy at first, what with the neighbours gossiping, but our family sympathized, understood, and fully supported our mutual love for the one man' the twins said.

Mr Wichai arranged for his brides to live with him in his family house after the wedding, and his mother has already proudly prepared TWO rooms for the newly-weds.

Our reporters were just gagging to hear the response to this mouth-watering question:-
"And.... what are the sleeping arrangements Mr Wichai?", to which he replied modestly with a beaming smile.

'Absolutely no problems! For the first three nights of the week, I will sleep with Ms Thipawan and the next three will be spent with Ms Sirintara. As for every Saturday, the three of us will sleep together'

Ms Sirintara finally told the press, 'When my twin and I worked as assistant nurses, we promised each other that we would never leave each other's side, and that our future husband would have to either take us both, or leave us.'


p/s photos: Kate Tsui Chi San

Bangkok Update

BANGKOK - LOYALISTS of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra met on Sunday to counter a sudden bid by the main opposition party to form a new government it says will lead Thailand out of political chaos.

The move comes after protesters recently paralysed the capital Bangkok and shut down its main international airport, stranding more than 300,000 travellers and dealing a heavy blow to the country's tourism-dependent economy.

The government was dissolved by a court order on Tuesday for election fraud. A number of members of ousted Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat's People Power Party, who owe their allegiance to Thaksin, regrouped in a new one, the Pheua Thai Party.

Phuea Thai members selected Yongyuth Wichaidit, a former senior Interior Ministry official, on Sunday to head its ranks and grapple with the opposition Democrat Party for the job of prime minister.

The Democrat Party announced on Saturday it had mustered 260 lawmakers in the lower house, enough to form a government with Oxford-educated party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva as the new prime minister.

The house has 400 members from single constituency elections and 80 party list members. At present, 441 seats are occupied with the remaining vacant, which means a coalition needs 221 members to form a government.

Surapong Tovichakchaikul, a Phuea Thai lawmaker, said the party can muster a coalition of at least 226 lawmakers. The counter-claims by the Democrats and Phuea Thai indicated that either party was exaggerating its strength, or some coalition members promised support to both sides.

The political wrangling, taking place during a still chaotic situation after Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi airport reopened on Friday, will not be resolved until Parliament meets within the next 30 days, and the two coalitions will have to prove their majority. No date has been set for the assembly.

The former ruling party said it would not give up the fight and warned of renewed violence.

'Right now the Democrat Party still can't form the government.

Things still haven't settled down. If Phuea Thai forms the government, the yellow-shirted people won't stop. They will come back,' said Chuvit Pitakpornpallop, a Phuea Thai Party MP referring to supporters of the anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy who wear yellow clothing at demonstrations.

He said a government by the Democrats would in turn inflame the 'red shirts,' followers of his own party.

The Democrat Party is supported by the alliance, an activist group that headed mass demonstrations against several recent governments led by Thaksin and his allies. The protests culminated in a weeklong siege of the capital's two airports.

Democrat Party Secretary-General Suthep Thaugsuban told reporters that negotiations with the other parties had been 'the smoothest discussion' he has ever had because everyone realised the country's stability was at stake.

'This was the hardest decision we have made, but the country needs to move forward. We have to think of the country's survival and so we apologise to our MP friends and the people who support us, but we can't work with them anymore,' said Boonjong Wongtrairat, a representative of a faction of 37 MPs who defected from the government camp.

Sombat Chanthonwong, a political science professor at Bangkok's Thammasat University, said many would find it difficult to accept Abhisit as the new prime minister because he did not emerge from an electoral contest.

'How can we have a prime minister who doesn't come from a democratic process? I don't get it,' he said.

British-born Abhisit, 44, is an articulate, sophisticated politician but critics say he is out of touch with ordinary people, particularly the rural majority, and lacks charisma.

His party's supporters include Bangkok's middle class, influential military figures and foreign investors who see him as a stabilising force.

Thaksin is still popular among the rural masses, reflecting the deep divide between the urban elite and the country's poor.

The political developments came as the country's main international airport was being restored, although an airport public relations official said on Saturday it could be at least a month before traffic was back to normal. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because she was not authorised to speak to the media. -- AP

p/s photos: Amigi Feng Yuan Zhen

Some Respite For Thailand

AP: Thailand's opposition Democrat Party said Saturday it has gathered enough support to form a new government, raising hopes that the country can emerge from a paralyzing six-month political crisis.

Democrat Party Secretary-General Suthep Thaugsuban gathered with other Thai members of Parliament for a meeting Dec. 6 in Bangkok.

Party Secretary-General Suthep Thaugsuban announced that his party has the backing of 260 lawmakers in Parliament's 400-seat lower house, giving it a majority and allowing it to form a government.

But given the chaos of recent months and deep political and social rifts, the apparent Democrat triumph will not be assured until Parliament meets within the next 30 days to vote on whether to endorse party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva as the new prime minister.

An activist group, the People's Alliance for Democracy, has spearheaded mass demonstrations against several recent governments led by exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his allies which culminated in a weeklong siege of the capital's two airports.

The Democrat Party remained on the sidelines of the protests, but sided with the alliance.

The sudden rise of the opposition party came amid anxiety over the illness of 81-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej, regarded as a cornerstone of stability, and fears that a new prime minister close to Mr. Thaksin could again ignite mass protests.

Mr. Thaksin, a former telecommunications billionaire who was ousted by a 2006 military coup for alleged pervasive corruption and abuse of power, remains at the center of the country's instability.

Politicians who switched from the pro-Thaksin camp to the Democrats said they did so because the outgoing government was clearly unable to run the country.

"All parties agreed that this is the best way for tackling the national crisis. We have selected the best choice for Thailand," said Ranongrak Suwanchawee from the Phrua Phendin party, one of four in the former ruling coalition to join the opposition.

Thailand Seeks a Way Out

As political unrest has grown in recent months, Thailand's economy has suffered.

Mr. Abhisit, 44, born and educated in England, is an articulate, sophisticated politician but critics say he is out of touch with ordinary people, particularly the rural majority, and lacks charisma. His party's supporters include Bangkok's middle class, influential military figures and foreign investors who see him as a stabilizing force.

Friday's official reopening of Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi international airport, still partially crippled after the siege by anti-government protesters, had raised hopes Thailand was emerging from the chaos of the past months. However, many Thais were also following with trepidation the health of the revered monarch. The palace announced Friday night that the king was suffering from an inflamed throat and fever after he failed to give his annual birthday address.

The siege of the capital's two airports by the protest alliance trapped more than 300,000 travelers and dealt a heavy blow to the country's tourism-dependent economy. Suvarnabhumi was operating at only about 50% capacity Friday. An airport public relations official said operations were stepped up Saturday, but it could be at least a month before all flights were back to normal. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to speak to the media.

A number of members of ousted Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat's People Power Party have regrouped in a new party, Pheua Thai, which called an emergency meeting Saturday evening when it learned that some of its members were switching to the Democrat camp, The Nation newspaper said on its Web site. It quoted a former People Power Party member as saying 37 of the party's lawmakers would support the Democrat Party in its effort to lead a coalition.

Thaksin and his ex-wife, a highly influential figure during his years in power, are hated by many of the country's elite, who charge that they were trying to usurp royal authority. Their November divorce is widely regarded as a ploy to reduce their individual legal liabilities and preserve the family fortune.

But Mr. Thaksin is still popular among the rural masses, reflecting the deep divide between the urban elite and the country's poor.

Friday night's celebrations of King Bhumibol's birthday -- marked by fireworks and crowds of people holding candles -- were dampened by the news of his illness. The king's traditional birthday remarks had been eagerly anticipated this year because of sharpening social and regional divisions fostered by the militant campaign to purge the country of Mr. Thaksin's influence.

The monarch has historically been the country's sole unifying figure in times of crisis. The protesters have repeatedly claimed defense of the throne as one of their motivations.

p/s photos: Kou Shibasaki