- IMF (July): The global economy is beginning to emerge from the recession "but stabilization is uneven and the recovery is expected to be sluggish." Economic growth may be 0.5 percentage points higher than projected in April 2009 or a 1.4% contraction in 2009 and 2.5% growth in 2010. Advanced economies will contract by 3.8% in 2009 - the U.S. by 2.4% (slightly less than in April), eurozone by 4.8%, Japan by 6%, UK by 4.3%, Canada by 2.3%. Eurozone will continue to contract in 2010 (0.3) while U.S. (0.6%) Canada (1.4), Japan (1.7%) and UK (0.2%) have below potential growth
- IMF: Emerging markets will slow sharply, growing by only 1.5% in 2009 before rebounding to 4.7% in 2010 (lower than the 6% in 2008). China to grow 7.5% in 2009 (8.5% in 2010) India 5.4% (6.5%). Asean to contract by 0.3% in 2009 before growing 3.7%) Latin America (-2.6), Eastern Europe (-5) and CIS (-5.8) to all face contractions in 2009 and sluggish growth in 2010 while the Middle east grows only 2%
- OECD (June): now expects a 4.1% contraction in the OECD area for 2009 (from the 4.3% expected in March) followed by a 0.7% growth in 2010. Thanks to a strong economic policy effort, OECD activity now looks to be approaching its nadir but the ensuing recovery is likely to be both weak and fragile. Recovery will take hold in a staggered manner across countries, reflecting differential policy stimulus and the force of headwinds from balance sheet vulnerabilities. A recovery appears to be in motion in most large non-OECD countries. The U.S. may bottom in H2 2009 and show marginally positive growth (as will Japan). Signs of impending recovery in the euro area are not yet as clearly visible and recovery may be sluggish.
- World Bank (June): Global GDP, after falling by a record 2.9% in 2009, is expected to recover by a modest 2.0% 2010 and by 3.2% in 2011 as banking sector consolidation, continuing negative wealth effects, elevated unemployment rates, and risk aversion are expected to weigh on demand throughout the forecast period. Despite higher growth rates in developing countries (given stronger underlying productivity and population growth), output will remain subdued. Given output losses to date—and because GDP will reach its potential growth rate only by 2011—the output gap (the gap between actual GDP and its potential), unemployment, and disinflationary pressures are projected to build over 2009 to 2011.
- UN (May): The world economy (World Global Product) is expected to shrink by 2.6% in 2009 after a nearly 4% annual increase in 2004-2007. Despite an expected recovery (1.2% growth) in 2010, risks are on the downside in 2010. World income per capita is expected to decline by 3.7% in 2009. In a more optimistic scenario, in which the financial and credit markets are healed in 2009, world GDP could rise 2.3% in 2010.
- In April's World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasts that real global economic activity will contract by 1.3% in 2009 (1.8ppts lower than January's 0.5% growth prediction and 3ppts lower than in November 2008) before staging a modest recovery in 2010. In June (Reuters) it reportedly raised its forecast, suggesting global growth of 2.4% (up from 1.9% in 2010).
- Citigroup: Recessions — in terms of declining GDP — are ending, or soon should, in many countries, and our growth forecasts have edged up in recent months in many regions. with low inflation, most major countries can afford to keep low interest rates and extensive unconventional stimulus in place for an extended period with the RBA being among the first to hike rates. Global growth is likely to contract by 2% in 2009 before increasing by 2.9% in 2010 (based on PPP weights)
- Signs of stabilization―though scattered and sometimes contradictory―have begun to emerge. However, it is still too early to say that a sustained recovery is imminent. Global industrial production is currently down about 13% over last year, and while it may rise in the coming months due to inventory correction, the future remains murky. GDP forecasts for 2009 are still being marked down to reflect a weaker-than-expected start to the year.
- BNP: A deeper and sharper inventory reduction, stabilization of financial confidence and policy actions may have helped bring about green shoots earlier than expected, but they may be transitory given that the countries that have had a mercantilist growth strategy have not sufficiently stimulated domestic demand to offset the hurt from falling exports.
- RGE Monitor (April): Global economic activity is expected to contract by 1.9% in 2009. Advanced economies are expected to contract 4% in 2009. Japan and the eurozone will suffer the sharpest downturns. U.S. GDP will continue to contract, albeit at a slower pace throughout 2009, with negative growth in every quarter. Emerging markets will slow down sharply from the stellar growth rates of the past few years, with the BRIC economies growing less than half their 2008 pace of 7.5%.
- Morgan Stanley: Massive global policy action has moved us further away from a Great Depression-type scenario, and the risks of contracting output and structural deflation have waned. Global output will probably start growing in 3Q09, with G10 output growth turning positive in 4Q. Growth for 2009 as a whole will stay firmly in negative territory for all regions except Asia excluding Japan (AXJ) (where China and India will keep growth in positive territory).
- The global economy remains weak across the board, with no significant signs of improvement. Moreover, growth in 2010 is not a foregone conclusion.
- Goldman: Growth in the emerging world may likely keep the global economy from contracting in 2009, but risks are tilted to the downside. The global economy may expand by about 1% y/y in 2009, down from about 3.2% in 2008. Most of that growth will come from Brazil, Russia, India and China as domestic demand growth will offset declining exports. China alone may contribute more than 60% to global growth in 2009
- Citi: The nadir for growth in most regions remains late this year with 1.7% global growth expected, with shallow recoveries expected in 2010. The deepening global recession is creating greater challenges to policy making. Markets will face more challenges to growth after the recession due to a rise in the cost of financial inter-mediation and the potential to draw the wrong lessons from the crisis.
- The global financial crisis is bringing an end to the vendor financing model, whereby excess consumption in the US was financed by a savings glut in the emerging world. The market will ensure this adjustment finally happens.
Analysts are now revising upward their growth estimates, suggesting that the contraction of growth will be slightly less severe than was expected in February and March. However, they remain divided about whether the recovery will begin in the latter half of 2009 or be delayed until 2010. Consensus now suggests that the U.S. economy might bottom in H2 2009 and that Chinese acceleration in H2 2009 could be more pronounced. The outlook remains weak for Europe and Japan. However growth may be well below potential in 2010.
p/s photos: Michelle Yip Shuen
i take it mr salvatore doesn't have a maid, or at d very most, is living off d help of parent's maid. Is that a generalization? Perhaps in d same way that u r generalizing. by not letting them roam d streets on weekends, where they r susceptible 2 all imaginable n unimaginable temptations, we r not treating them as family? we r putting them in inhumane work environment? how fast n how easy we humans conclude. forget that we buy things 4 them when we go holiday, ignore d fact that we constantly worry abt whether they hv enuf 2 eat, nevermind all other good things that happen in each household, that we let them hv mth long holidays n laden them wth all sorts of gifts n gold when they go. Scratch that you schedule in some rest time 4 them n worry about over-working them even when u don’t. cancel out everything, simply becos of 1 thing; they don’t get 2 go out on weekends. apparently if you don't let them go out, they r worth less than a human being n it negates all other gd things you do 4 them n d ways you care 4 them? not being able to go out on weekend n suddenly they r being treated so worthless? is this too extreme a generalisation? 1 point agst 100 others. human relations r based on more than 1 factor. but we only see what we want 2 see, don’t we?
it is only a practical solution in d view of the current situation we r faced with, with no protection to employers. perhaps u have not faced with maids sneaking out in d middle of d night 2 hv affairs even when they r not suppose 2 go out? perhaps you hv not had things go missing, even when you hv left them in yr own living room, in broad day light. maybe maids sticking themselves with coathangers in toilet in toilet to abort themselves n then bleed uncontrollably. how abt maids having friendship network so extensive n friends/ ppl trying 2 get all types of info fr them, latching on 2 any n every male worker that enters d house in a most pathetic manner, EVEN when they r not suppose to go out. i could go on and on, but perhaps it's tiresome n u get the idea. the problems exist even with our pathetic supposedly-practical solution at d moment, can u imagine d mayhem if they r allowed 2 mix n roam d streets? they already do not show maturity in d way they handle themselves, r we suppose 2 give them more freedom? if it was your child behaving so irresponsibly, wld u let them do as they please n stay out? How then, are we not being equal? and don't forget, even if you treat them like family, they r not your flesh and blood and do not have to listen 2 your teachings, no matter how u stamp yr feet/nag.
talk about human equality all you want when it doesn't burn too close too home, but it makes u a hypocrite. there are maids out there that may plan 2 rob u when influenced, those that bring men over in yr bed when u r not home, those that wear yr clothes n hook up with any man. exaggerating? i only wish.
When they run off, agents n govt don't care. they hv contagious disease, despite medical check that they r supposed 2 hv undergone, they get pregnant, ntry to abort themselves, leaving themselves half dead n u hv 2 send them 2 hospital, they catch aids fr their roamings, they steal yr things, sell them, d agents n gvt don't care. we r seen as d evil party simply because this is our only choice of protection. When d law doesn’t protect us, don’t strip us further of our protection.
If it’s so tedious, don’t get a maid? Speak when you walk a mile in other’s shoe. Judge only when you have actually lived it.
2:04 PM
Mr. Me,
Thank you for yr posting from the other side. I think yr points are very valid, and if I had implied that "not giving the maid the day off" as being cruel or inhumane, I was wrong, I apologise.
I have had 3 maids before. So, not a hypocrite.
I guess I need to tweak my posting somewhat, but yr points are very valid, I must say. Thanks for sharing.
2:10 PM
p/s photo: Michelle Yip Shuen