Monday, November 16, 2020

If It's Not Going Up...


A tip for traders and investors who play trends and sentiment. When you bought a "trading/trend/momentum" stock... if its not going UP... if its still not going up ... if its still not going UP ... then it is going to go down/

That goes for all related counters.

Top Glove Corp Bhd today bought back an additional 9.01 million shares worth RM69.9 million in the open market, marking the fourth consecutive day the rubber glove maker has bought back its own shares. It spent RM279.44 million this week to buy 35.82 million of its own shares, which represents a 3.52% stake in the company.

Friday, November 06, 2020

Goodbye XX%##X

 Well, I am trying damn hard to write something about Trump without using foul language. How about a nice cartoon. I absolutely detests those buggers who said "well the half of population of USA who voted for Trump were not voting for him, but they were voting against the system, the status quo of things"... To that I say, FUCK YOU, there are plenty of other ways to do that, you do not bring an imbecile to such an important position just to say "fuck you to the rest of the world".  ... goodbye XX##%&xx...

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

DILBERT@malaysia ...

This was done by yours truly back in 2010 when the Dilbert website still allowed visitors to do their own mashups of Dilbert comics. Sigh... nearly 10 years already, many things have changed, in particular the reference to Leeds United lol.


Sunday, October 18, 2020

Some Thoughts On AirAsia X


1) Owners of AirAsia X negotiating from a position of power - The owners can just walk away. Post restructuring the company will need to raise RM300m-400m, and borrow another RM200m, to function for the next 2 years. Thus the current controlling shareholders will probably have to pony up RM70-100m eventually. The owners can walk away and restart a new airline, or even takeover Malaysia Airlines-Firefly on a probable "better deal".

2) Mostly leases, planes and maintenance contracts - They are asking for a massive share consolidation (a must), and a never heard of before haircut. To be fair, they did not yet "use" most of these liabilities. Basically to get out of future commitments. It is not a lack of professional integrity but rather a realignment of new reality in light of black swan events.   

3) No ChoiceThe low-cost, medium-haul airline, which has grounded all its flights due to the Covid-19 outbreak, is asking creditors and suppliers to forgo over RM63bil in liability and instead accept a maximum RM200mil in payment.  While the proposal may sound atrocious, there's no other reasonable choice. If you offer too much, say RM500m to creditors, it will have grave difficulty to even raise RM300m later to move forward. Plus you can't really make use of the leases in the foreseeable future. That is why listed companies has to be of limited liability. Creditors have to take on risks as well when lending to clients. I mean, if you break it up now, it has a negative value, i.e. creditors get nothing except those who are secured.

4) Likely Strategy Going Forward - Tune Group Sdn Bhd, which is the investment vehicle owned by Fernandes and Datuk Kamarudin Meranun, is the single largest shareholder of AAX with a 17.8% stake. This is followed by AirAsia Bhd, with a 13.8% stake. The substantial shareholders do not hold a lot of shares now. There is no rush as they are prepared to write them all off should the creditors do not agree to the deal. They can easily up their stakes later upon successful restructuring by taking up new shares issuance to inject funds then.

5) Sour taste in the mouth - The atrocious haircut leaves a sour taste in most investors perception. Like that, anyone also can do business, just don't pay. Well, you have to be big enough and present a "lose a lot or lose everything" to creditors. Can the current controlling shareholders do better?

6) Equity in restructured entity for creditors - I believe a more equitable structure would be to add an equity component for creditors in the new entity. It cannot be to the detriment of the new entity going forward. Plus it shouldn't ask for new capital injection by the creditors. If I was advising the creditors, let go of the existing claim, go for 100% debt forgiveness. Make sure the company (controlling shareholders must raise RM300m, giving partial personal guarantees) within the next 3 months after the restructuring. After the capital injection, creditors must be issued new shares amounting to 20% of the new paid up of new entity. Why 20%? It cannot be more than the controlling shareholder.The figure has to take into account the dilutive effect on existing minority shareholders. I believe that would be a more equitable way moving forward for all parties.

Saturday, October 10, 2020

Tommy le Baker: When Passion, Tenacity, Integrity & Quality Triumphs

Cannot believe its been 10 years for Tommy le Baker. I still remember the hard slogging days when all he had was a hole in the wall (literally). But what stood out was his passion for bread making, his tenacious approach to doing it right and his way. Even when those early days was tough, barely making ends meet .. he soldiered on. He had his small but growing group of supporters and friends, but small nonetheless. You have to swallow your tears when he said in an interview that he knew many of them were patrons just to support his venture. Last thing we want is pity but they are also laced with genuine empathy.

It was always going to be an uphill climb for Tommy. Malaysians are so used to eating "air" and sugar and preservatives ladened bread - they had to be soft and last for a week at least. But that's not real bread. Herein lies his integrity, he does not ever want to "lie" to get better sales for his craft. He could have gone the Lavender or Breadstory way easily and made money and open branches.

As an artiste (musician or baker), your goodwill and followers are slowly accumulated. True talent usually doesn't garner overnight recognition. Jason Axian featured Tommy in 2 magnificent episodes a few years back. It was heart warming yet gut wrenching to trace his journey. Surely Tommy would have had greater success earlier - but it is bread we are talking about, ... not satay, curry laksa or bkt. We are talking of serving a small proportion of the public, and at the same time trying to get the majority to try and realise what real bread tastes like (its vvvg by the way).

So, here I am today at his new place in Kg Attap. A much bigger shophouse. Thankfully he didn't go modern and swanky. Its an old shoplot with no renovation. Please keep it that way. Most of us came for the bread and pastries and sandwiches and coffee. Let's not invite the social media hunters with instagram uploads as their mantra.

Its packed, and be prepared to wait ... wait for tables, wait to order... its worth it. Just as the breads went through proper and long fermentation... we can wait, its not fast food, its slow food done with integrity and superb quality. We can wait ... we should wait... we must have long conversations over coffee. Proper food done slow, we all should slow down and enjoy ... and when you know more of his journey, tenacity and values ... you appreciate the whole thing a lot more.

The handwritten menu.. and everything else tells us a lot about the man and his values: it's me, integrity, passion .. all that you see ... it's me, unvarnished, warts and all, and I am that good.

Now he has a snazzy website that does delivery as well... check it, in particular should MCO be reimposed:

the courtyard...

love the banana muffin

toasted steak sandwich on sourdough

The original posting:

Thursday, September 24, 2020

Countries Stock market's Capitalisation As A % Of GDP

 Why is the figure important ... if you can strip out foreign listings and non related listings (inclusive of SPACs) and maybe some REITs that are foreign or regional in nature, you get a good grasp of how much of your economy is listed. 

The higher the figure, the higher the importance of the stockmarket in feeling and shrinking economic activity. IN a super bull, Malaysian domestic economy would flourish as most people will see a lot of funds swishing around, the same when its a bear market when restaurants business dwindles sharply. The higher the figure, the more attention will the central banks and authorities pay to major fluctuations in share markets.

China, though has a lowly figure of GDP that is listed, is climbing rapidly. HK has a figure higher than 1000% because we have to strip out their China stocks listed on HKEX. If only Hongkongers realise how dependent their financial centre reputation (and business transactions) on mainland China.

Singapore has an awful lot of "foreign component REITs, and that's how their government has shaped their future.

Malaysia, is highly interlinked to our GDP... every time we see a business makes RM4-5m a year, we will try to get them listed. Though now that profit figure hurdle is higher (around RM10m a year), we are still very linked. The vibrancy of our economy has a lot to do with the vibrancy of our stock market. 

148.3 %
United States's Market Capitalization accounted for 148.3 % of its Nominal GDP in Dec 2018, compared with a percentage of 164.8 % in the previous year.

Stock market capitalization as percent of GDP, 2019 - Country rankings:

 The average for 2019 based on 58 countries was 83.64 percent.The highest value was in Hong Kong: 1338.48 percent and the lowest value was in Belarus: 0 percent. The indicator is available from 1975 to 2019. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available. 

p/s images of Candy Law Lam, 55 year old actress

Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Why We Need Testosterone (a message from this site's sponsor)

Why do we need testosterone?

Last updated Wed 6 February 2019 By Markus MacGill Reviewed by Daniel Murrell, MD

What is testosterone? Imbalances Testosterone levels and aging Treatment Outlook

Testosterone is the key male sex hormone that regulates fertility, muscle mass, fat distribution, and red blood cell production.
When levels of testosterone drop below levels that are healthy, they can lead to conditions like hypogonadism or infertility. There are, however, sources from which people with low testosterone can boost their levels.

Low testosterone is becoming more and more common. The number of prescriptions for testosterone supplements has increased fivefold since 2012.

This article will explore what testosterone does and whether men should worry about decreasing levels of the hormone as they grow older.

Fast facts on testosterone
- Testosterone regulates a number of processes in the male body.
- Levels of testosterone tend to drop as men age.
- Prohormone supplements do not have any effect on testosterone levels.
- Testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) is also available. However, this can carry side effects and risks.

What is testosterone?
Testosterone is the male sex hormone.
Testosterone is the hormone responsible for the development of male sexual characteristics. Hormones are chemical messengers that trigger necessary changes in the body. Females also produce testosterone, usually in smaller amounts.

It is a type of androgen produced primarily by the testicles in cells called the Leydig cells.

In men, testosterone is thought to regulate a number of functions alongside sperm production. These include:

- sex drive
- bone mass
- fat distribution
- muscle size and strength
- red blood cell production

Without adequate amounts of testosterone, men become infertile. This is because testosterone assists the development of mature sperm.

Despite being a male sex hormone, testosterone also contributes to sex drive, bone density, and muscle strength in women. However, an excess of testosterone can also cause women to experience male pattern baldness and infertility.

The brain and pituitary gland control testosterone levels. Once produced, the hormone moves through the blood to carry out its various important functions.

Testosterone imbalances
Testosterone test
Testosterone decreases naturally with age. It is important to receive tests to determine whether any imbalances are due to an active condition.
High or low levels of testosterone can lead to dysfunction in the parts of the body normally regulated by the hormone.

When a man has low testosterone, or hypogonadism, he may experience:

reduced sex drive
erectile dysfunction
low sperm count
enlarged or swollen breast tissue
Over time, these symptoms may develop in the following ways:

loss of body hair
loss of muscle bulk
loss of strength
increased body fat

Chronic, or ongoing, low testosterone may lead to osteoporosis, mood swings, reduced energy, and testicular shrinkage.

Causes can include:

- testicular injury, such as castrationi
- infection of the testicles
- medications, such as opiate analgesics
- disorders that affect the hormones, such as pituitary tumors or high prolactin levels
- chronic diseases, including type 2 diabetes, kidney and liver disease, obesity, and HIV/AIDS
- genetic diseases, such as Klinefelter syndrome, Prader-Willi syndrome, - hemochromatosis, Kallman syndrome, and myotonic dystrophy

Too much testosterone, on the other hand, can lead to the triggering of puberty before the age of 9 years. This condition would mainly affect younger men and is much rarer.

In women, however, high testosterone levels can lead to male pattern baldness, a deep voice, and menstrual irregularities, as well as:

- growth and swelling of the clitoris
- changes in body shape
- reduction in breast size
- oily skin
- acne
- facial hair growth around the body, lips, and chin

Recent studies have also linked high testosterone levels in women to the risk of uterine fibroids.

Testosterone imbalances can be detected with a blood test and treated accordingly.

Testosterone levels and aging
Testosterone levels naturally decrease as a man ages.

The effects of gradually lowering testosterone levels as men age have received increasing attention in recent years. It is known as late-onset hypogonadism.

After the age of 40, the concentration of circulating testosterone falls by about 1.6 percent every year for most men. By the age of 60, the low levels of testosterone would lead to a diagnosis of hypogonadism in younger men.

About 4 in 10 men have hypogonadism by the time they reach 45 years old. The number of cases in which older men have been diagnosed as having low testosterone increased 170 percent since 2012.

Low testosterone has been associated with increased mortality in male veterans. Late-onset hypogonadism has become a recognized medical condition, although many of the symptoms are associated with normal aging.

The following are symptoms of late-onset hypogonadism:

- diminished erectile quality, particularly at night
- decreased libido
- mood changes
- reduced cognitive function
- fatigue, depression, and anger
- a decrease in muscle mass and strength
- decreased body hair
- skin changes
- decreased bone mass and bone mineral density
- increase in abdominal fat mass

As well as sexual dysfunction, late-onset hypogonadism has also been associated with metabolic disease and cardiovascular disease.

The degree to which testosterone levels decline varies between men, but a growing number of men experience the effects of reduced testosterone levels. Life expectancy has increased, and many men now live beyond the age of 60 years.

As a result, a higher number of men see the effects of age-related testosterone depletion.

Administering treatment for hypogonadism as the result of a disease differs from treating late-onset hypogonadism in older men.

Testosterone supplements
One proposed treatment for low testosterone comes in the form of testosterone supplements.

One type of testosterone supplement, methyltestosterone, has received approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA). However, guidelines advise doctors not to prescribe this supplement due to the speed with which the liver metabolizes testosterone.

This can lead to liver toxicity. While doctors can legally prescribe the supplement, they generally try to avoid this.

Until stronger evidence is available to support the benefits and safety of testosterone supplementation, only older adults with severe clinical symptoms of low testosterone should be candidates for these supplements.

The FDA have advised that testosterone supplements are not suitable to treat late-onset hypogonadism, and a doctor should only prescribe them for an identifiable cause.

Testosterone replacement therapy
Testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) can help restore some affected functions of low testosterone.

Current research is conflicting. Additional studies into testosterone replacement are necessary for physicians to fully understand its potential risks and benefits, and to identify the individuals that may see the most benefit.

For men, testosterone levels are important to maintain, but they naturally decrease over time. If symptoms of severe or chronic low testosterone are showing, the hormone deficiency may be caused by an active disease or condition.

Treatment can lead to unwanted side effects, so it can be crucial to balance the expected benefits of testosterone supplementation with the risks of the treatment. Often, low testosterone levels come without harmful physical effects and do not require treatment.

Speak to a medical professional, and confirm if treatment is required.

If It's Not Going Up...

  A tip for traders and investors who play trends and sentiment. When you bought a "trading/trend/momentum" stock... if its not go...