Gold Reserves / GDP - Implications

 

One can easily tabulate countries with the largest gold reserves but it is meaningless unless it is expressed as a benchmark against a relevant factor. GDP, or rather nominal GDP is a useful benchmark. It is the value of all goods and services from a country, with no taking into account the differing cost of living in other countries.

The caveat here is that China's gold reserves are actually closer to 4,000 metric tons according to many experts' newsletters. There have been too many big "unknown" transactions over the past 2 years that can only be linked to China, even though officially it was not recorded as so.

If you divide the GDP (in million) by their gold reserves you will get a pretty picture. Naturally the lower the figure the more gold you have covering your GDP. I would put 2.0-4.0 as being in an astute position, a more than adequate coverage should anything resembling a currency crisis comes about. If ever a reversion to some sort of gold standard or linkage to a gold standard following a major currency paradigm shift, those with a good gold stash relative o their economy would be sitting pretty.

Italy 0.85  - the Italian economy is in the doldrums but thankfully their central bank has amassed a sufficient gold arsenal; in the event of a dislocation of the euro, the Italians would swiftly support any kind of SDR (special drawing rights) with links to the gold standard.

Turkey 1.02 - where the economy has been battered by high-interest rates and constant devaluation but fundamentals show that Erdogan has doubled up on gold reserves over the last few years; while economic winds have not been in their favor, they kind of have a last bastion in gold reserves, which may indicate that their currency has been way oversold. The economy has to stop using USD for most of their transactions, the problem being Turkey does not have many friends to do barter trades on major transactions.

Germany 1.28 - solid fundamentals; the central bank here has protected the integrity of their economy no matter how the economic winds blow.

France 1.2 - same here.

Russia 0.89 - a deliberate strategy to buy gold over the last 10 years and more of late, indicates why Russia is championing de-dollarisation. China is definitely an ally in that strategy.

Switzerland 0.835 - is it because the country is the biggest refinery for gold; anyways, the country is a firm believer, and hence their arrogance to keep having their own Swiss franc as a solid currency exposure.

Taiwan 1.86 - for all the gangsterism in politics, the central bank has shrewdly backed itself with more than sufficient gold reserves; a political pawn in the global chess game, it has tried to shield itself from things "they can control".

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You may be able to get away with holding less in gold reserves if you are a commodity-rich country such as Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia the OPEC nations.

Australia 10.0; Malaysia 11.5; Indonesia 17.8; Brazil 16; Mexico 13.8; heck, Canada does not hold any gold reserves even cause its got tons of gold and other commodities in the ground.

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In the comfort zone, 2.0-4.0:

USA 3.3 - for all the talk emanating from the USA in particular, on how gold is a useless thing and the gold standard should never be considered, they are holding a pretty decent amount; of course, their problem is not gold reserves but their unending printing of money and highly excessive debt levels; they do not want others to even consider de-dollarisation as a possibility but their reserves level tells us they are prepared somewhat for it.

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Outside the comfort zone, i.e. more than 4.0 to 8.0:

China 4.8 - just outside the comfort zone but judging from the way China has been buying over the last 5 years, I think they will be headed for 3.0 within a couple of years; the country's disappointment over the US currency's reserves status, exporting of inflation, the exporting of US economic woes to developing countries via their excessive printing and liquidity injections - all points to ganging with Russia to change the status quo.

Japan 5.2 - just outside the comfort zone but I suspect their gold buying will be keener over the coming years once interest rates start to indicate more buoyant activity; the last two years have seen a deliberate strategy to weaken the yen.

India 4.3 - again India ha shored up its buying activity over the last few years and should see a similar strategy for the foreseeable future.

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Danger zone, i.e. more than 8.0:

UK 10.0 - Brown sold UK's gold reserves poorly over the years; neither is it commodity rich; the Brexit as well - I see cloudy days for the British pound over the next few years.

Argentina 11.8 - the peso was devalued 18% a few days ago; more trouble in store (which is why I think Turkish lira is presently way oversold); lacking the gold backing will limit the options you can take to recharge your economy; any printing of money will result in a disastrous and vicious cycle of devaluation.

South Korea 16.0 - This open economy is kind of vulnerable; very export-oriented but has no legs to stand on in the event of a major financial currency crisis; limit your exposure.

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Safe to say this is a crude benchmark but it also should tell us a lot of nuanced economic survival strategies among major nations. In the event of a major currency crisis, those with sufficient gold reserves and other important commodities will have a better seat at the table. I suspect a SDR linked to major currencies/gold and other important commodities will take effect. A de-dollarisation is in effect but not as painful as anticipated in the past for USD.

p/s.   1Q2023 Gold Buying Tally

The Vital Signs Are Good, Even Though Patient Is In ICU

There are signs that the financial regulators and leaders know what is troubling the global capital markets. If they know, then we are on the way to properly restoring calm and sensibility. More importantly, it will ensure a properly functioning capital markets - which is still not evident now as many stocks have dipped below way past what is considered as fair value. Its pointless to point out which stocks are worth buying as there are too many to mention. You would be better off to try and see the road signs that say that the root problems are being addressed. If they are not doing that, then we will be in the doldrums for a while. However, I can see two major signs which say we should be on the right path. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s comments that signaled he wouldn’t let another large bank fail, large institutional traders began doubling down on bets that large banks would skyrocket. At a time when almost everyone is deleveraging, several funds were in essence doubling their leverage on one trade. This is essential as the statement indicates that Paulson now knows what a catastrophe it was to let Lehman Brother fail (please read recent posting on Lehman Brother, The Rosetta Stone). That will be as close you can get to an admission of grave fault by Paulson.

The major hedge fund Citadel had a conference call over the weekend and agreed with my take on Lehman Brothers:

3:55 p.m.: “One effect we’ve all seen is about the diversity of counterparties. Given the diversity of counterparties around the world, clearly the diversity isn’t enough to deal with some of what we’ve seen in the past few weeks.”

3:54 p.m.: Lehman’s bankruptcy caused “the greatest dislocation we’ve seen in money market history”

The second major issue is the flight to safe currencies such as yen and USD. But, this is not a currency crisis. This is a liquidity crisis, a growth crisis, a confidence crisis. As such, probably the first step should not be to intervene to save currencies. People calling for their central bankers to protect their currencies are calling for the wrong antidote. At a time like this, you don't need or rather you don't want a strong currency. Look at the OZ dollar, there is no way the Reserve Bank of Australia can do much to stem the reversal of the massive yen carry trade effects. The RBA can only do one thing to protect the OZ dollar and that is to raise the interest rates, which is already crippling in light of the over speculated property market there. What good is it to bump up rates and protect your currency and then find your economy in tatters with property markets there compounding. You would have a graver, and longer term disaster in the works. Better to allow the currency to find its own footing. At current levels, the OZ should start attracting some FDI into property for sure and should see a strong boost to tourism. I mean the OZ dollar is even cheaper than the Singapore dollar now by nearly 10%.

The source of aggressive capital flows into the dollar and yen is emerging markets, and it is the emerging market central banks, flush with dollar reserves, who could take action to stem the market frenzy. Naturally this cannot be allowed to continue, especially for Japan, which needs a weaker currency to prevent a more severe deflation in its economy. Emerging markets “need to act the same way the U.S. and European Union has acted. That will address the root of the problem. However, those governments’ assertiveness is limited by their experience.

Ahead of the Asia Europe Meeting, which began Friday, Japan and other East Asian leaders agreed to establish an $80-billion joint fund aimed at fighting the global financial crisis. Much of the movement into yen and USD can be said to be coming from emerging markets themselves, and that needed to be reversed. The setting up of the "fund" is a good start. More collaboration will go some way to slowly unwind the weakness in emerging markets' currencies.

p/s photos: Deepika Padukone