Buffett Likes The Mess The US Is In

SMH: Warren Buffett, the world's richest man in the Forbes magazine list, said in a newspaper commentary yesterday that he is buying US stocks even though the American economy is in a "mess".

Mr Buffett, 78, who became known as the Oracle of Omaha because of his fortune-building skills, said he has been buying into US companies even as "fear spreads".

"The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy and the leaks are now turning into a gusher," the head of the Berkshire Hathaway Inc conglomerate wrote in The New York Times.

"In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

"I've been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I'm talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy). If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 per cent in United States equities."

The reason, he said, is a key maxim in his outlook: "A simple rule dictates my buying: be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.

"Most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense," Mr Buffett said.

"These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records five, 10 and 20 years from now."

Mr Buffett stressed he could not predict how the market would ride out its roller-coaster days in the short-term. "What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up."

Mr Buffett has supported Democrat Barack Obama in the race for the White House, but both Senator Obama and his Republican rival, John McCain, say they agree he would make a good treasury secretary.

Mr Buffett, who is noted for his personal frugality despite his huge fortune, has said in the past he believes the financial markets should be more tightly regulated.

Forbes's annual wealth list published in March, shows Mr Buffett's wealth jumped from $US52 billion ($75 billion) last year to $US62 billion, pushing Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates out of first place.

p/s photos: Angelica Lee Sin Je (this is what I meant by Malaysian girls' sweetness and unassuming beauty)

Krugman, Nobel Prize Winner, Makes Prediction

Bloomberg /SMH: The winner of the 2008 Nobel Prize for economics said the US is plunging into a ``nasty recession'' with a ``lot of suffering'' to come, even if policy makers succeed in unfreezing the credit markets. ``That's baked in,'' Princeton University professor and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman said in an interview on ``Night Talk'' with Mike Schneider to be broadcast later today on Bloomberg Television. ``There is a lot of downward momentum.'' He said a rise in the unemployment rate to 7% ``seems almost certain'' and he put the odds of an increase to 8% at ``better than even.'' The jobless rate in September stood at a five-year high of 6.1%.

Signs that the economy is falling into a recession multiplied this week with news that retail sales have fallen for three straight months, single-family housing starts hit a 26- year low and consumer confidence plunged the most on record. Krugman voiced some doubts that the steps that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is taking to combat the credit crisis will succeed and suggested that more might be needed. Paulson rolled out plans this week to use $US250 billion of taxpayer funds to purchase stakes in thousands of financial firms to try to halt a credit freeze that threatens to bankrupt companies and hammer the job market. ``It's not clear there's enough money,'' Krugman said.

He added that Paulson may also have to insist that the banks use the money they're receiving to make new loans if the plan is to work. ``They may need to be much more interventionist than they have been thus far,'' the Princeton professor said.

p/s photos: Pevita Pearce