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Showing posts from March, 2019

Quietly Steadfastly .. Change Is A' Coming

Pelham Blue's Letter To Sc (Parody)

Have to admit, this person is certainly funnier than me, so, here's the link, it is hilarious:

Dear Securities Commission of Malaysia,

I am writing to register my complaint about the conduct of some investment banks and their analysts, whose recent downgrade of my favorite stock has caused the price to drop considerably.
I am of course writing about TalkCock Industries (TCO), an investment education company that had gone through tough times but whose financials have been recovering. The stock fell to RM1 recently, after gaining 250% since January to RM1.80. 
I have repeatedly told readers of my blog that TCO is worth at least RM4. How did I come up with this? Simple - my 'platinum rule' is when the company records three consecutive quarters of profit recovery. Never mind that the sector is cyclical, vulnerable to broader market factors, and that the company has yet to prove that talking coc…

Do Good, Be Good .... Why

Look at the poster ... its what I call CRAP!!!

Why write this? Well, if other people feel so freely to share their convictions, I think I also need to share my convictions.

Problems I have with organised self-delusional groups: 
a) there is something inherently wrong or misdeeds you or your forefathers have done, so shut up and make the best of it;
b) all these units of charm offensive promises you something in return.

Original Sin/Previous Lives - Imagine you have a 5 year old kid going to kindergarten for the first day. He sat down, the teacher comes over and gave him one tight slap. He cries why ... the teacher said "oh, its something your forefathers did or you did in your previous life". What kind of logic? Well, in every organised charm offensive, there has to be something that you can never question, something you are "guilty of" and there is nothing you can argue or question its logic. It is only by getting you to be "you might not know it but you have alre…

KYY Jabs With Analysts - Commentary

KYY's comments about the broking firms/analysts who might be deliberately pushing down Dayang's prices were uncalled for, over the top, childish, naive and petulant.

1) You may attack a research report, BUT on merits, please. You may dissect their assumptions and projections - if you find fault with them,  call them out as weak research. To jump to "pushing down prices" is WAY, WAY, BELOW THE BELT. It is like your own kid who comes home past the 10pm curfew, say 1am, and immediately you jump to the conclusion that he must prove that he has not been doing drugs.

2) Why must all research agree with your market position? If all research analysts must follow KYY's golden principles, then no need to have other opinions. And yet when the negative research reports came out, there was only one point argument made by KYY as to why the analysts must be weak to not see the lofty and positive projections by KYY as being close to prophetic.

3) Why write to SC??? If an investor f…

A Most Important Blueprint

The local bourse went into a groggy sleep today. That was a surprise considering our PM's speech at Invest Malaysia 2019. The bulk of the recommendations and initiatives were SPOT ON to reinvigorate Malaysia domestic economy, export competitiveness and capital markets. I couldn't have scripted a better blueprint, I think. Seriously, I think the markets should be up 20-30 points today, headed to 1850 by end April.

PM Tun Mahathir’s speech at Invest Malaysia 2019:

*Friendly ties with Singapore and China – growth partner. Key trading and investment partner. 

*GLC not to crowd out private sector – become a catalytic role in driving growth. (This is important but to actually see it, in reality, is another thing, a good initiative if carried out effectively).

*Fix and strengthen government – Cabinet committee set up for anti-corruption. (Just give MACC more teeth and more protection and/or reward for whistleblowers).

*No political appointees in GLCs. (Major... implement well).

*Change in …

Malaysia's Surprising FDI

Foreign Direct investments, to me, is the singular most important macro indicator for the mid-long term outlook for the economy. Following the stupendous May election result, many were optimistic over the reforms and plugging of leakages to the system. However as the months dragged on, nothing seems to be moving. All we saw was a prolonged process of getting the culprits to their destinies. 

Some GLC heads and other high ranking officers were removed, but nothing concrete was moving the real economy. The stock market went into a slow death mode. Projects were canceled
 and still,  more inertia seems to be bugging most ministries.

Even the most apologetic among the supporters were murmuring. Things seemed to be finally moving just before CNY this year. The following bit of news will surely spark a lot of things. A 48% jump to RM80.5bn in FDI for 2018, largely came about in the second half of 2018 - which speaks volumes about the confidence foreign long term investors have in the new gover…

A Way Out For MAS

How many times, how much longer should we keep bailing MAS? How much have we spent... RM26bn!!! If you take from year 2000, that is more than RM1bn a year to keep this thing afloat.

We see a figure like RM26bn and it does not make much impact because we have no frame of reference. What is RM26bn? 

Let's say the 1MDB, which was a financial crime and CBT, cost us Malaysians RM5bn. Then MAS would have meant going through about 5x 1MDB disaster. To be fair, MAS is a business and while the comparison is not entirely apples vs apples, there is still some painful truth in comparing it to 1MDB.

a) There is no shame in not having a national airline but there is a lot of shame and fiscal irresponsibility when we keep losing more than RM1bn a year for the past 20 years.

b) It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that MAS is almost unfixable owing to the: i) the union and their contracts (back in 2015 20,000 employees were terminated and 14,000 rehired, were the terms too generous our is it…

ECRL Theme To The Fore

Our government has given out soundbites that offered a more conciliatory stance towards restarting ECRL. For those who have missed the large re-rating upwards of oil & gas plays, these stocks under ECRL theme may be worth doing more research into.

The mini bull run seems to have gotten some legs, thanks to the upcoming Samurai bond and PM's visit to China in April. 

The last two by-elections, which the rakyat handed a sound thumping to the ruling government, was actually a good thing. To me, they are not really racially based swings but more dissatisfaction from the general populace over the "excessive handbraking in the real economy" by the ruling government.

While we want to eradicate corruption, primarily by cronies of the previous government, the collateral damage has been excessive to bystanders. Coming at a time which coincided with the US-China trade war spat just made things worse over the last 12 months.

Just imagine the number of subcontractors and workers link…