Well, this post is written after the plan by FDIC and Treasury on Citigroup. So, where are we now? The first thing was Obama made the right choice in appointing Timothy Geithner (please reread posting on the new Treasury Secretary). The market basically rallied over 4% on Friday over the news. Can the appointment alone charge up markets? Yes, especially in the current market situation where there is little confidence, little direction, high volatility, basically no market leadership.
The best thing for Geithner to do is to grab the markets by the neck and tell them "This is the way ahead, follow me and I will guide you towards the light (no pun intended, obviously)". Geithner, as mentioned before is a market interventionist. He was critical in lining up the JP Morgan / Bear Stearns deal, he was instrumental in getting the funding for AIG, he tried to save Lehman but was dissuaded by higher powers ...
The market basically saw in Tim, a person who will not let things get blown out of his control. It was very easy to predict what he would do in a Citigroup situation. The new rescue package for Citigroup was assembled with Tim's input, and it was a package that tries to cover even the most extreme situation Citigroup could find itself in. Naturally there will be many naysayers that will criticise that the package will not work.
To me, its a very substantive package, watch the shorts try to stampede out of Citigroup in a hurry tonight. Why is the package so good? I did mention that Treasure could follow the UK prescription for Royal Bank of Scotland, whereby they injected capital for actual shares, thus controlling the bank. Instead a softer version was adopted, the Swiss version, on how they bailed out UBS. But in reality, the package is a Swiss UBS package with a subsequent evolvement to the UK RBS method as future losses, above the preset levels, will see the government absorbing the loss in exchange of an equity stake in Citi - so prediction stayed true.
First, there is the additional $20bn capital. Two, the guarantee on $300bn of toxic assets, phew. Thirdly Citi is only liable for the first $29bn of losses, as I mentioned earlier, without the package, Citi would probably have to incur losses totalling at least $50bn for the next 3 quarters. Now that has been largely eliminated.Fourthly, most importantly, confidence is restored. Global bank run on deposits would now start to reverse. Fifthly, no dividends for 3 years (or just 1 cents actually) - this has to come from the government as management has no balls to say no more dividends (Alaweed no happy man, no feel like smiling).
The 8% payment on $7bn to Treasury is a cheap way to raise funds. This move will make it SO MUCH EASIER for Citi to go to sovereign wealth funds to tap additional capital. Mark my words, Citi will easily raise another $10-15bn within weeks, which will further boost its defence system.After the deal, Citi's Tier 1 capital ratio at Sept. 30, on a pro-forma basis assuming the October capital injection and the new capital announced on Sunday, is expected to be 14.8%. Its tangible common equity would be about 9.3% of risk-weighted managed assets, Citi said.We have market leadership. Expect a sharp revival in Citi, and possibly a new bottom at 8,000 for the Dow.p/s photos: Haruna Yabuki
This is probably not a politically correct joke, well not really a joke as it actually did happened, but hey....loosen up. A private banker called up a client telling him that Citi was a great buy below $5. The client half-jokingly said, "What, you kidding, I'd never buy an Indian bank". I guess its not just Vikram Pandit but a huge layer of the bankers at Citi happen to be Indians - I told you it was not politically correct!Anyway, some updates on the probable fate of Citigroup. The shorts are doing it to Citi, make no bones about it. Will Citi go bust? Very unlikely. The bank has $2 trillion worth of assets, the question mark is how much will have to be written down. Hence even below $20bn in market cap, Citi may not find buyers for the whole bank unless they come with Treasury backing and guarantees.
Citi has kind of been off the radar when Lehman and Bear Stearns were collapsing because of their strong deposit base, in particular from outside of the US. It has some $880bn in deposits, but the scare over the last few days probably would have seen at least one third of those deposits being pulled out. I doubt very much Citi can function without some kind of help over the next few days.
The interesting bit was that the company bought back $17.4bn in assets it could not offload under the SIV. If you were really in trouble, would you do that as a priority? Citi saw Alaweed upping his stake from 4% to 5%, that didn't help. Citi got a $25bn injection from TARP, that seems to be insufficient. The estimated further writedowns over the next 3 quarters could come up to another $50bn. Take that with a much reduced deposit base, and Citi would find it very hard to raise funds or have sufficient capital to do business. While HSBC or even Royal Bank of Canada would have the muscle to buy Citigroup now, none will try as they will not get any special treatment from the US.
For JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley to buy, they would probably only do it with guarantees from the Treasury. Following the hoopla over the deal with JP Morgan and Bear Stearns, I doubt the Treasury would want to take that path again.
A seizure by FDIC would be bad news generally as Citi would be broken up and sold in parts. A most likely scenario now would be for Treasury to become the majority shareholder of Citigroup by pumping in at least another $50bn in exchange for new shares. Taking a leaf out of UK's experience with Royal Bank of Scotland, that seems to work. Treasury could then slowly sell down its stake when Citi gets out of trouble a few years down the road.
As it is, Citi is a unique animal. Its reach is far and wide. If it was Bear Stearns or WaMu, nobody outside the US would bat an eyelid. But mention Citigroup, it trades and do business with almost every corner of the globe. The international pressure on Paulson and Bernanke to "save" Citi would be overwhelming. If that route is chosen (as I think is most likely), we should see it trading back at $10 minimum, thanks also to the short squeeze on the shorts. For the time being, that seems to be a realistic solution.p/s photo: Nozomi Sasaki
The most important appointment Obama will make over the next few days will be the Treasury Secretary. The person to replace Henry Paulson. As economics is the most difficult and pressing matter facing Obama, it is imperative that he make the right choice. Markets will rise and fall depending on who he selects.The contenders:a) Lawrence Summers - A renowned Harvard economist who won the John Bates Clark medal for economists under 40 in 1993, and was the Treasury Secretary under Clinton's administration. Has done it before, but under Clinton, no big financial or economic turmoil. Still an OK selection, but better than Robert Rubin definitely. His strong grasp of economics comes in handy. Summers could provide an economic lift, such as improving health care, reducing dependence on foreign energy sources and changing the tax code. He says focusing on those areas will help the economy by creating jobs and preventing families from cutting spending. Summers was among the first economists to call for a second round of economic stimulus based on infrastructure investment, which he says would help create jobs, bolster the construction industry and provide a cash infusion to municipalities. Markets to move up if he is appointed.b) Timothy Geithner - President of New York Federal Reserve Bank. Though not well know, he should be viewed as a good selection as he was one of the early and more aggressive proponents of action to stem the crisis. Geithner would come in with an even more interventionist approach, which is what the market seems to be looking for, to solve the mess. He pushed for quicker action on Fannie & Freddie, and help strategise the bailouts of Bear Stearns and AIG. Market savvy and well regarded by Wall Street. Markets will go up slightly if he is selected.c) Robert Rubin - another former Treasury Secretary under Clinton, ex top dog at Goldman Sachs and now a director for Citigroup. Impressive resume but largely seen as ineffective over the last 5 years. Did not forsee the crisis or counselled Citigroup properly. Was not entirely effective as Treasury Secretary. It would be a poor choice for Obama to select him. Markets will fall of Rubin is selected. Rubin is a trader, not a good economics strategist. d) Paul Volcker - Your favourite and mine as well. Possibly the best Federal Reserve chairman ever. In his 80s, is a towering figure in U.S. monetary policy, famous for vanquishing inflation as former chairman of the Federal Reserve. Age might stop him from taking up the post. I would even just ask him to take up the post for 2 years to help guide the US through the economic landmines ahead for Obama. You can expect a sharp rally if Volcker was selected. His reputation from the 70s was unmatched. He dealth with the OPEC crisis, was brave and committed to tackle issues swiftly. Not prone to do popular stuff but effective measures. Markets will rally the strongest if Volcker is selected.
Others being mentioned include: Jon Corzine, another ex-Goldman Sachs top dog, now the Governor of New Jersey and Jamie Dimon of the unscathed JP Morgan.
p/s photos: Top, Paul Volcker with Obama Baby. Bottom, left to right, Summers, Corzine, Geithner
