Thursday, April 29, 2010

Top Equity Strategists' Targets For S&P500

Bespoke Investment has managed to tally the top equity strategists' predictions for the S&P500 for the end of the year. Like them or not, a lot of big funds do listen to them. The underlying bullishness for the 2H of 2010 is still intact, but I think we will go a bit lower before moving back up. Whats surprising is that Goldman Sach's year end target has already been reached technically. Does that mean that they will adopt a more bearish stance from now till year end in their proprietary trades? Barclays, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley have year end targets lower than present levels - if they are right, we are in for a disappointing 2010.

The consensus year-end S&P 500 price target of major Wall Street strategists surveyed by Bloomberg now stands at 1,264, which is up 3.18% from the consensus of 1,225 at the start of the year. A move to the average year-end price target of 1,264 would represent a gain of 13.34% for the full year and a gain of 4.27% from the S&P's current level. UBS, Bank of America, and Credit Suisse are the most recent firms to up their year-end targets. So far this year, 7 of the 13 strategists have increased their estimates. As shown, UBS now has the highest year-end S&P 500 price target at 1,350, followed by Deutsche Bank at 1,325, and JP Morgan, Oppenheimer, HSBC, and Bank of America all at 1,300. Three strategists now have year-end targets that are lower than the S&P 500's current level -- Barclays (1,210), Morgan Stanley (1,200), and Citigroup (1,175).

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