Dan Fogelberg

My karaoke sessions will never be the same. The quite brilliant Dan Fogelberg who has written & sung classics such as Longer, Same Auld Lang Syne, Run For The Roses, Leader of The Band, etc. has passed away yesterday after losing the battle with prostate cancer. Loved his songs, loved his intimate country singing tone. His personal and heartfelt lyrics - a beautiful soul. He was only 56, too soon, too young. Plus, he was a damn good looking guy too. One person said: If ever there was an appropriate time for a grown man to cry, this is it.

Live unplugged, Leader Of The Band:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cy3GHCy49Dw

Live, Same Auld Lang Syne, about old loves and memories:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhjYbfK9vrk&feature=related


p/s OMG, one of my friends just commented to me that I sounded "gayish" just by the things I wrote above ... rereading it, oh no... it does sound gayish ... sigh... so what... so be it

Fung My Shui ...

After reading the headline, either you are laughing already, or you didn't get the joke. The headline is mimicking the often used phrase Kxxx My Axx.

I know I will offend and ridicule a lot of readers, especially for an Asia based blog. I did my fair share of introspection into FS in the past, and found that most of the bs is bs, and some of the sounder ideas were basically common sense. Digging deeper, FS only took on a new life over the last 100 years or so, sort of something that was invented due to necessity, a lot like accounting. The only record of FS and its application a few hundred years ago was due to being used to position burial sites. Somehow, that grew in the number of bull shitters into various tangents, with the appearance of different schools of thought. FS in particular is easy to flourish in the Chinese culture because there is no need for verification. Almost everything is based on presumptions, inventions and airy fairy stuff. If there was no compass, I think all FS masters would not exist. You can then extend the compass into a more complex lo pan, how... just name the quadrants and spaces with innovative ideas.

What's the deal with various animal years? How did fan tai shui came about? Did anybody care to check? 99% of ideas are from hearsay, from white bearded gurus, mostly self proclaiming proselytizers, mainly self-promoters. Many would be effective politicians as the better ones are usually charismatic, good oraters and persuasive snake charmers - not exactly a benchmark for solid stuff. Successful FS masters would also probably succeed in the political field or as a management consultant - all able to turn bs into a fine art.

FS easily flourished in a Chinese culture because the culture accepts almost everything that comes along the way, especially things handed down from generations past, with no questioning of the validity side of things. You can have many gods, demi-gods, semi-gods, super duper dead heroes being elevated to sainthood, purveyors of various areas of business sectors, and even every section of the house - who is to know that they dissect the otherworld and spiritual world into such compact and organised structure. C'mon, they do a much better job than Lord of The Rings or Harry Potter, but they are mainly fiction.

FS also succeeds in Chinese culture because there is really a very vague understanding of after life - anything goes. There is no main god and religion is wishy-washy. Taosim is neither here nor there. The culture can accept bits of Taoism, multi level gods and bits of Buddhism without ever anyone questioning why. All cultures will try to explain their fate and destiny. When there is no strong religion as a backdrop, cultural ways dominate. Nobody likes to take PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY for their actions - they all want to evade bad luck and put failures or bad experiences down to other reasons other than themselves. FS serves that purpose very nicely. You did not lose that job because there was no water feature in your East area of your office - you probably fucked up, but that is much harder to swallow. When you want to ascribe things to blame on or rely on the supernatural to move ahead in life, you are unlikely to experience personal growth and probably lack application in life - don't be a lazy whiny bastard.

FS masters also know how to protect theselves to explain the unanswerables. They often cite the "grand rule": yat mange, yee wharn, sarm fung shui ... or loosely translated: number one is llife destiny you are born with, number two is the luck you are born with, then number three fung shui ... Which means if your life does not improve even after doing this and that according to fung shui, well tough-titties. What a wonderful thing to be involved in, no one can say you got it wrong. People who seek out FS tend to be at wit's end in coming terms with their problems: be it financial problems, bad bosses, career stagnating, argumentative household, philandering husbands, back-stabbing friends, etc. Well, we need to deal with the problems straight up: lose your a-hole friends, geld your husband (he's a prick), move to a new job, examine your effective contribution in your work, communicate with your family members better (be a friend not only a parent), etc. These common problems are a result of more deep-seated issues which some of us are unwilling to face up to or try to solve.

People will cite the Lamborghini with the good luck number plate, and cite the huge sums rich people dole out for FS readings. Errr ..., they had to build their wealth first ... I don't think there was a tycoon who got rich by positioning a fucking water feature in their garden, and said the rest was history!!! Rich people will use FS more as it is better to be safe than sorry, a wealth protection insurance - hey, go buy a huge annuity, its much better.

What about those lucky bastards born with a golden spoon and never having to raise a finger in their life, and they are useless dim witted fools at the same time? Why are you not Li Ka Shing's son or daughter? There are many unanswerables in the world, but FS is definitely not the answer. Live your life as well as you can, take responsibility for your own actions, spend time to discover your spiritual side, explore religions, take ultimate care of your soul as best you can. I was moved to write on this because I read a FS guru's prediction for 2008: "... advisable to invest in a good burglar system, be careful when you carry cash ..." C'mon!!! I can also add: "don't fuck your best friend's wife" ... what's the difference??!! More from the guru: "... avoid herd mentality and stick to fundamentals ..." and may I add, your mother is probably a woman.

China Rail-CW

It takes 6 months for us to come out with 4 or 5 China Mobile or Petrochina covered warrants. Guess how many covered warrants were issued in one day for one H-share company in HK?

46 ... forty-six warrants of China Railway Group started trading today, breaking the record of China Merchants Bank which had 38 warrants issued in one day last year. China Railway's share price yesterday surged to a record high HK$9.11 and hit a low of HK$8.45, with intraday volatility getting as high as 78 percent. The stock closed at HK$8.68, down 4 HK cents or 0.46 percent. Since its listing last Friday, China Railway has traded lowest at HK$6.70 from an IPO price of HK$5.78. Thanks to the 46 covered warrants, hedging activity and rebalancing will cause China Railway to trade actively and should account for at least half the trading volume.

The warrants' exercise prices range from HK$5.68 to HK$10.80 and are all call options, most of which are either at the price or near the price. Expiry dates range from six to 20 months. However, it almost look more like a stock call option with exercise price at HK$6, others at HK$7 and HK$8. Ho added that as the market is not bullish these days, it is difficult to estimate the response towards the warrants.

China Railway did not get perked up in a share price jump despite the numerous covered warrants being issued because the current environment was not as bullish - and many issuers probably hedged via some other instruments to control the gamma risk. Unlike China Merchants Bank and China Communications Construction which were listed in a bullish environment last year, their options and shares were well received. As a result, issuers have to buy more shares from the market for hedging, that caused both shares to jump appreciably.

China Railway is also allowed to be short-sold starting today. Short-selling does not mean the share price will be volatile as it may not be easy to borrow shares for short-selling. Having that many same call warrants with minor changes in the exercise price and time to expiry will mean that pricing will be aggressive, and the issuers themselves will be trading each other's issues even more aggressively. In fact, I would not be surprised if issuers account for more than 60%-70% of actual total volume for the entirety trading volume for these covered warrants.

Long way for local brokers before they catch up/on HK.

The Federal Reserve Wants You To Know:

It is obvious that the Fed has pissed everyone one off with its 25 basis points cut, when almost 99% were wanting 50bp at least. Well, its a lot like kindergarten, howling kids asking for more candies and crayons, well you don't just give them all they want.

The Fed is basically telling all that Federal Reserve won't be bullied, coerced, pressured into doing things that Wall Street or global investors want, no matter how compelling the reasons are.

The Federal Reserve also want us all to know that stock markets is definitely not a top priority, neither is the likelihood of a recession as that is too vague a notion to manage. The Fed wants you to know that they really ONLY look at sustainable employment growth and price stability (keeping inflationary pressures in check) , and after those priorities would they consider long term growth rates for the economy.

The Federal Reserve also wants you to know that their lack of mention of the persistently weak USD should send loud signals to global investors. Weaker USD is a desired thing, but not a free fall. The Fed is not going to bailout every single mistakes from the excesses of Wall Street.

This Fed has a bit more balls and Bernanke is trying to make a stand and create a reputation for his tenure - and succeeding. So, don't go looking to the Fed for Christmas presents. Even though Bernanke has a nice white beard, he's not Santa Claus.

A Message By George Carlin

I even have a book by Carlin, he is a top comedian by profession but also a brilliant writer. His funny diatribe are usually laced with profanity but still very funny. Some of his funnier books include: When Will Jesus Bring The Porkchops? and Brain Droppings.

Some of his famous sacarsm comedic stylings:

Honesty may be the best policy, but it's important to remember that apparently, by elimination, dishonesty is the second-best policy.

I'm not concerned about all hell breaking loose, but that a PART of hell will break loose... it'll be much harder to detect.

If it's true that our species is alone in the universe, then I'd have to say that the universe aimed rather low and settled for very little.

It's never just a game when you're winning.

and my favourite:

Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.

George Carlin

To get a sense of his genius, watch his 1 hr stand up routine Life Is Worth Losing:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7068677712290004125

A good friend of mine sent me Carlin's message below, possibly following the death of his wife, nothing to do with finance or business... but read my banner, it makes my world go around... After watching his comedic talents, now marvel at what he wrote below - brashness and sacarsm do not equate to a harsh person but a most tender soul bent on pointing out our flaws, so that we all can call a spade a spade and live life as we should to the full.

~~~~~~~~~~~~
The paradox of our time in history is that we have taller buildings but shorter tempers, wider Freeways , but narrower viewpoints. We spend more, but have less, we buy more, but enjoy less. We have bigger houses and smaller families, more conveniences, but less time. We have more degrees but less sense, more knowledge, but less judgment, more experts, yet more problems, more medicine, but less wellness. We drink too much, smoke too much, spend too recklessly, laugh too little, drive too fast, get too angry, stay up too late, get up too tired, read too little, watch TV too much, and pray too seldom. We have multiplied our possessions, but reduced our values. We talk too much, love too seldom, and hate too often. We've learned how to make a living, but not a life. We've added years to life not life to years. We've been all the way to the moon and back, but have trouble crossing the street to meet a new neighbor. We conquered outer space but not inner space. We've done larger things, but not better things. We've cleaned up the air, but polluted the soul. We've conquered the atom, but not our prejudice. We write more, but learn less. We plan more, but accomplish less. We've learned to rush, but not to wait. We build more computers to hold more information, to produce more copies than ever, but we communicate less and less. These are the times of fast foods and slow digestion, big men and small character, steep profits and shallow relationships. These are the days of two incomes but more divorce, fancier houses, but broken homes. These are days of quick trips, disposable diapers, throwaway morality, one night stands, overweight bodies, and pills that do everything from cheer, to quiet, to kill. It is a time when there is much in the showroom window and nothing in the stockroom. A time when technology can bring this letter to you, and a time when you can choose either to share this insight, or to just hit delete... Remember; spend some time with your loved ones, because they are not going to be around forever. Remember, say a kind word to someone who looks up to you in awe, because that little person soon will grow up and leave your side. Remember, to give a warm hug to the one next to you, because that is the only treasure you can give with your heart and it doesn't cost a cent. Remember, to say, "I love you" to your partner and your loved ones, but most of all mean it. A kiss and an embrace will mend hurt when it comes from deep inside of you. Remember to hold hands and cherish the moment for someday that person will not be there again. Give time to love, give time to speak! And give time to share the precious thoughts in your mind. AND ALWAYS REMEMBER: Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away.

George Carlin

King Pie Fan Club

I am glad to hear of so many like-minded fans ...

sqkanji said...

Hi Dali,

I agree with u. They sell the best pies in KL and served them hot. My fav is mutton curry!.

2:04 PM

Jomaropol said...

Haha Dali, back to your food reviews again. King's Pie is a family biz, and yeap the daughter's married.

Like you I share a passion for pie, when I was in Australia, I would walk to the nearest Petrol kiosk every other night and get one of those meat pies, to microwave it back home and wolf it down.

I was missing pies for years until the King showed up. Thank goodness for King's pie. Only wish that they have a way of tah pauing the mustard to go with those juicy pies.

2:29 PM

Vronique said...

Hey S. Dali - my whole office LOVES the FRIES! I would call it "chips", as its really good ol' satisfying comfort food! Nobody can resist it.....

3:21 PM

Emerging Markets Headed Higher

An examination of most emerging markets showed that many are bottoming out and are forming strong consolidation levels to rally from. Many have been oversold over the subprime mess. Even the clouds are clearing for US markets, and that should be a green light for a next upwave for most markets.

China has finally had a meaningful correction and uptrend for the longer term is still intact. Good base building has been happening over the past week, which was why I promoted the China dolls again. On any indicators, China markets have been way oversold. Even though higher rates, inflationary pressure and lending restrictions have restrained players, but buying has been building up. Brazil is the next market showing very bullish signs as well, followed by Korea.

The more battered Taiwan may rebound but its still showing some mid term weakness. Malaysia and Singapore would fall into this category, there will be some upside but inherent strength would be lacking as foreign funds are finding better markets for true exposure.

While among the bigger markets, HK is still getting plenty of attention and would be the best long market for the next 3 months at least.

Carry On Carry Trades

After the slight scare with the subprime mess, which caused the USD to tumble, or more importantly causing the yen and swiss franc to rise - carry trades seem to be increasing again. The main target currencies were the Australian dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Indian rupee, New Zealand dollar and Philippine peso - i.e. carry trade was borrowing in yen or swiss franc to invest in the above mentioned currencies.

Yen-funded carry trades provided higher returns than those using Swiss franc loans because of the Asian country's lower main interest rate. The recent rise vs the USD from 120 yen to 109 yen would have scared many carry traders, but most would have been able to unwind to lock in gains. Now that the yen has stabilised, we are seeing more carry trades reopening positions because carry trades despite the inherent risks allow them to lock in 10%-12% gains per annum. For example by borrowing in yen and buying AUD, these trades can produce an annualised gain of 12%. One can borrow in yen at 0.5% and buying AUD will yield 6.5%.

In fact, if measured in volatility, these carry trades have a lower volatlity than stocks even. Of course, the danger is the sudden divergence in currency movements. The losses would be magnified if yen strengthens and AUD weakens. However, the recent risks and losses have been less than generally anticipated because when yen strengthens, the AUD and other targeted currencies also strengthen. There was only one losing currency and that is USD.

Not all carry trades are the same. The danger is the "underlying fundamentals" of the target currency. All things being equal, the following target currencies are ranked according to inherent strength in economic findamentals:

1) Australian dollar

2) Indian rupee

3) Thai baht

4) Indian rupee

5) Phillippine peso

6) Indonesian rupiah

7) NZ dollar

The lower the ranking the bigger the danger of the target currency collapsing. What carry traders don't want is a strngthening yen/swiss franc and a collapsing Kiwi dollar/ rupiah. Private investors dabbling in carry trades, do realign your strategies.

The yuan would have been the ultimate carry trade on a 6-12 months view. Borrow in yen at 0.5% and just park in yuan bonds or deposits giving you 3%-4% p.a. The beauty is the expected rise in yuan value on a 6-12 month basis. Alas, its difficult to get hold of yuan papers.

As a matter of fact, borrowing in yen and buying HKD in blue chip stocks (with 3-4% dividend yield) or good REITs would be an excellent trade on a 6-12 view. Even though USD may weaken further, thus weakening HKD owing to its USD-peg, the structural shift actually would push HKD stocks higher. Its atrade with a high level of risk though. Worth mentioning anyway.

Chinese Tidbits

Sinopec - Sinopec Group, and the Iranian oil ministry on Sunday signed a contract on the development of the Yadavaran oilfield in southwestern Iran. The initial estimation of the project's cost is about US$2 billion. The first phase to produce 85,000 barrels per day will be carried out in four years and the second phase to produce another 100,000 bpd will be carried out in another three years. According to Iranian estimates, the Yadavaran field has in-place oil reserves of 18.3 billion barrels and gas reserves amounting to 12.5 trillion cubic feet, of which 3.2 billion barrels and 2.7 trillion cubic feet are recoverable respectively.

Blackstone & CIC - Private equity firm Blackstone Group is assembling a consortium for the purpose of submitting a counterbid for Australian miner Rio Tinto, currently the target of a hostile offer by BHP Billiton. The consortium is said to include China Investment Corp., China's US$200 billion sovereign wealth fund. Rio is planning to defend itself from Billiton's three-for-one offer by selling up to US$30 billion in assets, possibly including the talc business, two uranium projects, the Northparkes copper and gold mine in Australia and the US Greens Creek zinc, lead and silver mine. Blackstone wants to buy the company and break it up completely. Blackstone's primary target is Rio's iron ore operations, which Blackstone values at a minimum US$110 billion based on existing reserves -- though further mineralization in the Pilbara in Australia and at the Simandou project in Guinea could push that figure considerably higher. The Chinese steel industry is a massive consumer of iron ore and has expressed concern that a Rio-Billiton combination could control the market. Blackstone has close ties to China, feeding speculation that China is involved in the pending bid: China Investment Corp. bought a 10% stake in Blackstone for US$3 billion just prior to its IPO.

QDII To Triple In Size - China plans to triple the quota for foreign investors to invest in the country's stock and bond markets under its qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) scheme. The ceiling will be increased to US$30 billion from the current US$10 billion. To date, a total of 49 institutions have acquired QFII quotas, and the value of their portfolio has increased to 200 billion yuan (US$26.5 billion). The QDII program is supposed to help investors reduce risks by widening the investment channels of domestic capitals, and to help expand Chinese residents' investment in overseas stocks.

King Pie - Its Really Good!

I have to get more people to try out King Pie cause I am scared that mediocre business may force them to close shop. Although I think they are doing OK, but the rents must be killing them, hence I need to rally more people to at least try out my favourite pie shop.

Pies are not big with Malaysians. Its great with foreigners. I had plenty of meat pies in Australia, including the 4/20 and the famous kiosk in Woolloomooloo - all still pretty average. There was only one decent pie place, and that was at Pitt Street Hilton, but even that changed hands.

I must say that King Pie bakes the best pies I have ever tasted. Its the flaky outside pastry, yet there is a thin doughy part after that, and succulent, generous meat/sauces. I am there at least once if not twice a week. Now they are at Suria KLCC (just outside KFC), Tesco Mutiara Damansara and 1Utama (opposite Laksa Shack). Its always warm/hot, and they discard pies not sold after a couple of hours (really!!!).

The franchise is from South Africa and I hope it continues to well in Malaysia. Here I have to qualify that I am not an investor in King Pie (M), or dating the owner, or his/her daughter, or even know who the owners are.

Their best seller is Chicken Mushroom, but my favourite is Pepper Steak. Other pies that must be sampled include: Mutton Curry (seriously), Steak & Cheese, Spinach & Cheese ... The other item you must order is their fries. The only trouble is you have to wait 4 minutes each time cause they are microwaved the moment you order. Surprisingly, it comes out as the closest thing to the best french fries ever (I am not kidding)... What makes good french fries, cannot be too thin, it has to have some size, and because its not fried in oil, its not oily... its piping hot and a bit crunchy on the exterior (good bite feel) and soft in the middle. You can taste the "potato-ness". Its certainly the best fries in the country.

The attention to detail and ingredients selection (e.g. they only use topside beef) helps them to come up with a superior product. Give them a go!

Decoding China's Pulse

Important Chinese bigwigs at a just concluded economic conference identified five major problems in the national economy in a bid to better steer the country's economic growth in the coming year. The three-day Central Economic Work Conference that ended on Wednesday cited overheating risks, inflation pressure, a weak agriculture sector, arduous energy conservation and emission reduction tasks and prominent issues on welfare of the general public as key concerns of Chinese authorities.

It emphasized that it would be of great significance to properly guide the national economy in 2008, which is the first year for China to implement policies mapped out at the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), during which the country's new leadership was selected.
China will host the Olympic Games in August next year, for which the government is going all out in preparation to guarantee the success of the major event.The meeting has also outlined policies to be adopted to ensure problems could be properly solved, such as the prevention of overheating economy and guarding against a shift from structural price rises to evident inflation.

Overheating Risks - A liquidity issue which channels itself into property and stock markets. To rein in these risks is very difficult. Beijing have been raising bank's reserve requirements and stopped banks from lending till end 2008.

Inflationary Pressures - Another liquidity issue. Can be combated by subsidy from the government or price controls.

Weak Agriculture Sector - A planning problem.

Energy Conservation & Emission Risks - Putting in measures which would eventually lead to more rules and regulations, thus increasing the cost of doing business - but a desired development.

General Public Welfare - General workers salaries not catching up fast enough with prices, and the still troublesome unemployment in more remote areas of China. Another planning issue.

We have to remind ourselves that although most of us know China intimately through their stock markets, the authorities have larger fishes to fry. Just because we view their stock marets with "importance", listed equity is still a small proportion of the real economy. If there is no overheating risks, they would certainly do nothing to stop Chinese equity markets from rising further.

Their property markets have been subdued somewhat, as these larger committments are easier to control via fiscal measures. Stock markets are more difficult to rein in as funds can move in and out.

Looking at the above factors, chances are this is only a temporary pause for the bull run because liquidity is still intact. As companies keep churning out decent results, it is likely to reignite the market's run. Raising the reserve requirement stems the banking side, but liquidity is already there. Raising bank lending rates also will hurt property side more but not stocks because the gap between deposit rates and BLR is still too wide, about 4 percentage points. Unless that gap is about 2 percentage points, only then will hikes in BLR attract real funds into deposits and away from stocks. Hence the hike in interest rate over the weekend is rather a non-event, in fact it could prompt some to re-enter the equity markets because another hike may be a few months away.

Beijing still have many fiscal measures it could implement if things really get out of hand - such as raising transaction fees or even taxing capital gains. These measures are not likely to be implemented till maybe the all time highs have been breached again. Hence on balance, the bull run should continue soon and things should be "safe" at least till it nears their all time highs. China dolls, come to papa ...

GOOD TRADING BUYS

( but watch those expiring in 2-3 months time, and get out when time to expiry is near)

CCCC-C3 0.23

CCCC-C4 0.16

China Life-C3 0.17

China Life-C4 0.48

China Merchant-C1 0.12

CNOOC-C1 0.36

Chalco-C1 0.14

China Construction Bank-C1 0.12

Shenhua-C1 0.37

STRONG BUYS

China Mobile-C5 0.51

China Coal-C1 0.13

ICBC-C4 0.23

Petrochina-C4 0.43

Sinopec-C2 0.17

Sinopec-C3 0.15

Extended Hols Eliminated in China

As mainland visitors tend to visit Hong Kong in large numbers during the so-called Golden Weeks, the move by China's State Coulcil to reduce the long May Day vacation to just one day, will not be a welcomed move. The State Council on Friday decided to cut the three-day long May Day Golden Week holiday to one day, despite most respondents in a nationwide survey objecting to the proposal during last month's nine-day consultation period.

Not only will the May Day holiday be shortened, but the council is also considering reducing the three-day National Day holiday as well to one day. About 80 percent of the respondents rejected the plan according to China News Agency.

In order to encourage more consumer spending, the May Day holiday has been a three-day vacation since 2000. However, on November 9 the government announced a proposal to shorten the May Day holiday. Under the plan, the May Day holiday will be reduced to one day, and the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, Dragon Boat Festival and the Mid-Autumn Festival will be added to the national holiday calendar. The total number of annual public holidays will increase by one day to 11.

The Spring Festival and the National Day Golden Weeks will both remain three days long. Late Friday, the Xinhua News Agency reported the State Council had "principally" approved the proposal during a standing committee meeting, and it is pending revision before an official announcement. Though the intention is noble, but one must remember that the majority of people working in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen are from other parts of China. They really look forward to the extended holidays to go home for holidays. The move will not be popular. This will also affect HK retail and tourism adversely as many will take the opportunity during the May Week and National Day week to travel to HK. Though officially, the top brass in HK will not be saying that that is a bad move - there will be great dissatisfaction among the business crowd in HK. This will also piss off most mainland Chinese - wait for more displeasure. Pretty bad and illogical move by China, those in the State council could face a hard time in the days ahead.

Best Racing Day

Followers of horse racing should now regard the HK International Invitational races as probably the best one day program in the world, with mega prizemoney stakes to boot. This is still the best competitive field yet. Not to mention the cream of the best jockeys in the world also riding.

HK SPRINT 1200m Group One HK$12,000,000

1 ABSOLUTE CHAMPION (3) B PREBBLE 7-1
2 BENBAUN (2) P SMULLEN 15-1
3 SACRED KINGDOM (6) G MOSSE 2.25-1
4 MARCHAND D'OR (5) D BONILLA 31-1
5 SCINTILLATION (7) E SAINT-MARTIN 41-1
6 TIZA (11) C SOUMILLON 76-1
7 DESERT LORD (9) N CALLAN 61-1
8 WHY BE (13) N CALLOW 51-1
9 ROYAL DELIGHT (4) S DYE 21-1
10 SUNNY SING (1) D BEADMAN 31-1
11 SUNNY POWER (10) Y T CHENG 28-1
12 GREEN BIRDIE (8) L DETTORI 29-1
3 MISS ANDRETTI (12) C NEWITT 4-1

Comment: Probably the most competitive race among the 4 with the untouchable Miss Andretti from OZ. However, the fact that the horse has drawn a ridiculous barrier even things out enormously for the probably favourite Sacred Kingdom. The dark horse would be Royal Delight which broke the course record in his last start, a vastly improved horse. A repeat of that performance will bring in the longshot. Absolute Champion does not look like the horse it was last year, and may be now suited to 1400m or 1600m. Finally a horse bring invited from Malaysia/S'pore in the kampung champ Why Be - its probably 4 lengths better than the top horses running in both countries at set weights over 1200m - a bad barrier is nothing and should see Why Be at least leading till round the bend, and thats all she wrote.

HK VASE 2400m Group One HK$14,000,000

1 DYLAN THOMAS (7) J MURTAGH 2.5-1
2 QUIJANO (1) A STARKE 14-1
3 RED ROCKS (8) L DETTORI 11-1
4 DOCTOR DINO (4) O PESLIER 10-1
5 BUSSONI (6) C SOUMILLON 26-1
6 EGERTON (3) T MUNDRY 41-1
7 VITAL KING (9) B PREBBLE 9-1
8 ARCH REBEL (10) F BERRY 71-1
9 KOCAB (2) S PASQUIER 41-1
10 VIVA MACAU (13) D BEADMAN 12-1
11 HAWKES BAY (11) G MOSSE 31-1
12 EVER BRIGHT (5) O DOLEUZE 18-1
13 MACLEYA (12) R MOORE 21-1

Comment: A one horse race? The appearance of Dylan Thomas, Europe's Horse of the Year, almost took all the interest from other fancied runners. There is always a niggling doubt about foreign invaders being acclimitised soon enough to get back their condition. The horse was worked hard every day, which may indicate that the horse is still not within top condition yet. Hence I am willing to back the under-rated Vital King by another very under-rated NZ trainer Paul O'Sullivan as the horse will finish very well as Paul seems to have been targeting this race for the horse in its last 2 starts.

HK MILE 1600m Group One HK$16,000,000

1 KONGO RIKISHIO (1) S FUJITA 3-1
2 SPIRITO DEL VENTO (13) O PESLIER 21-1
3 THE DUKE (3) G BOSS 25-1
4 ABLE ONE (2)M KINANE 15-1
5 AL QASI (10) R MOORE 56-1
6 FLORAL PEGASUS (11) G MOSSE 11-1
7 GOOD BA BA (6) O DOLEUZE 7-1
8 JOYFUL WINNER (7) D BEADMAN 17-1
9 DOWN TOWN (4) D WHYTE 11-1
10 EXCELLENT ART (5) J MURTAGH 6-1
11 CREACHADOIR (12) L DETTORI 22-1
12 VISIONARIO (8) N CALLAN 36-1
13 DARJINA (9) C SOUMILLON 5-1

Comment: Probably the best race in terms of a large number of fancied runners. The Japanese Kongo R will try to lead all the way. Excellent Art is a lucky but over rated horse. I would stake a bet on the improving Spirito Del Vento to finish all over Kongo R. If Downtown can settle well at the paddock and not take the lead till the last 400m, its a decent chance.

HK CUP 2000m Group One HK$20,000,000

1 RAMONTI (4) L DETTORI 11-1
2 VENGEANCE OF RAIN (7) A DELPECH 10-1
3 VIVA PATACA (3) M KINANE 1.4-1
4 SHADOW GATE (2) K TANAKA 17-1
5 ART TRADER (1) D BEADMAN 20-1
6 ROYAL PRINCE (6) B PREBBLE 13-1
7MUSICAL WAY (5) R THOMAS 45-1

Comment: The presence of Viva Pataca scared most of the internationals and locals away, hence the very small field. Haphazard pace is likely in this small field as there are no clear leaders. Royal Prince is a good longshot as I expect Tony Cruz to have the horse ripe for an all the way lead performance. Viva Pataca may/may not cut him down in the end. Vengeance of Rain looks to be past his peak.