Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Love It When Family Argues

This is what we have .... calling the opposition:

Pondan (effeminate)
Bangsat (bastard)
Bapok (transvestite)

First of all, is there anything wrong in being a bapok or pondan? It reflects totally on the prejudices, warped mind, uneducated misfits of those who utter those words and wanted them somehow to be "cruel and mocking" to the other person.

Of course Nga was wrong to call someone metallic black, ...  ingenious, but unnecessary. Good that he has apologised publicly. 

These are the people from the ruling party, aren't we glad we have such refined fuckers. You fucking morons, if you want to scold, scold properly .. you fucking mangkuks yang berhayun....

p/s  the language is getting coarser, the racial card is played a lot more, scare tactics abound... election must be fucking near

Going Holistic, Organic and Vegan ......

p/s  Guys, we know we all watch Nigellea Lawson cook on TV, but why the food sound so sexy and R rated when she describes her ingredients and when she eats??!!

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Shortlist For Shorting Stocks (Updated)

Well this was posted back in June 2011, which in itself was an update from December 2010. Almost 6 months now, KNM is now 97 sen which meant that it lost more than 50% (so how, Simon, where are the back stoppers ... just a shoutout to one of the commentators). Of course if taken with the original posting, the stock would be considered decimated from the RM2.89 level when i first wrote the shorting post.

Green Packet is more resilient. Its now at 59 sen, meaning it lost just 21%.

Would these two still be worth shorting at current level? Even if they were worth shorting, are they still the best stocks to short from the whole of Bursa?

The answers is Yes and Yes. Green Packet is more an Angry Bird stock, you have to keep hitting the walls, and the walls are creaking and moving ... you sometimes have to wait for the egg to explode for the thing to crumble.

Friday, June 03, 2011

I think this was posted last year 29 December. KNM closed yesterday at RM2.01. Green Packet closed at 0.75. GPacket is doing very well price wise, we'll see, we'll see... Anyways, some friends visited a recent exhibition in KL where KNM had a booth. The picture may tell a wonderful story of the company ... (click for larger image to read the inscriptions).


29 December 2010

Unfortunately, we don't get to short stocks in Malaysia, and in many markets actually. When we think of shorting stocks, it is very easy to pick the highly speculative ones with zero fundamentals. Its a no brainer to lump stocks such as Maxbiz, Compugates or Tejari and the likes to the category of stocks to short. In fact, if you try to short these stocks, they will come back to bite you as they are highly speculative and share prices could double or triple for no reason if they "manage" the stock price well enough.

A genuine stock shorting process involves company that is running on supposedly good fundamentals, but you do not think that that is the case in reality. Some will ask, why even talk about them and make enemies. I think its pathetic to only talk about good stocks. Sometimes its good to have an opinion of stocks you do not like.

However, to save myself, I will not elaborate on why I think they are my favourite stocks to short, but let me assure you that I stand behind my views 100%. I will check back on their respective share prices every 3 months and see how they fare. I think both are excellent stocks to short on a 1-2 year time horizon.

The stocks on my list that no one wants to be in:

KNM ($2.89)

Green Packet ($0.71)

I am sure plenty will differ in their views, and thats what makes a good liquid market place, there are always buyers and sellers. If you go long, please rub it in my nose 3,6,9,12 months down the road if they continue to perform well. I will accept the dressing down gleefully.

NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

No Point Diversifying?

There are still some who think it is worthwhile to diversify their stock holdings into various countries. If we were to look at the falls from highs to lows during the subprime crisis (USA) in 2008-2009, and the recent sell down owing to the Euro-crisis (July till now), there is really nowhere to hide.

The drop from highs to lows during the USA Subprime mess:

United States (SPY): -47%
Canada (EWC): -54%
Mexico (EWW): -59%
Brazil (EWZ): -59%
Chile (ECH): -51%
Comment: The US markets actually held up pretty well, it is their neighbours that fared poorly. I guess if you are smallish and is largely dependent on trade/tourism/consumption by the bigger affected country, you will be marked down heavily.
Germany (EWG): -54%
France (EWQ): -51%
Italy (EWI): -60%
Netherlands (EWN): -57%
Spain (EWP): -57%
Austria (EWO): -64%
Belgium (EWK): -62%
Comment: Surprisingly, Europe fared a lot worse that the US. There could be a multiple of factors, some of the subprime mess did occur in EU nations and a large number of big EU banks were involved as well. However, methinks the biggest pull down must be due to a selling of equity positions to stem the tide of outflow of funds to compensate those who withdrew monies from managed funds. Again, the smaller you are, the bigger the hits (Austria, Belgium, Italy).
United Kingdom (EWU): -53%
Switzerland (EWL): -44%
Sweden (EWD): -50%
Russia (RSX): -74%
Comment: Herein lies the big difference for countries which chose NOT to be in the EU. They did remarkably better. Yes, they did not have as large a banking exposure (even though UK did) but each country gets their report card assessment based on their own economics and their ability to adjust and tweak their financial levers - something the EU countries could not do so easily. Russia is a completely different kettle of fish of course.
Turkey (TUR): -66%
Israel (EIS): -40%
South Africa (EZA): -53%
China (FXI): -52%
Japan (EWJ): -39%
Hong Kong (EWH): -48%
Taiwan (EWT): -46%
Malaysia (EWM): -34%
Singapore (EWS): -53%
South Korea (EWY): -57%
Australia (EWA): -54%
India (EPI): -54%
Thailand (THD): -51%
Comment: Most also will fall in tandem. Japan fell the least, probably because it was already falling for the past 15 years and did not really perk up prior to the crisis. Plus the yen was seen as the next best safe haven after the USD. Malaysia fell the least after Japan, wonderful fundamentals? I believe it says a lot about the "lack of foreign institutional investors" in Malaysian stocks. Secondly, the way big local funds have been controlling more and more of the indexed stocks. Both are highly not positives.
The drop from highs to lows from July 2011 till now:
United States (SPY): -21%
Canada (EWC): -28%
Mexico (EWW): -27%
Brazil (EWZ): -34%
Chile (ECH): -37%
Argentina (ARGT): -41%
Colombia (GXG): -23%
Peru (EPU): -25%
Comment: The Euro-crisis is just dragging along everything.
Germany (EWG): -38%
France (EWQ): -36%
Italy (EWI): -39%
Netherlands (EWN): -30%
Spain (EWP): -32%
Austria (EWO): -44%
Belgium (EWK): -29%
Ireland (EIRL): -27%
United Kingdom (EWU): -23%
Switzerland (EWL): -23%
Sweden (EWD): -34%
Russia (RSX): -42%
Norway (NORW): -35%
Poland (EPOL): -41%
Comment: This time around a Euro-crisis will drag also those which chose not to be in the union, so the markets are affected whether you are in it or not, at least the country would not be burdened with "funding the bailout".
Turkey (TUR): -33%
Israel (EIS): -32%
South Africa (EZA): -25%
Egypt (EGPT): -38%
China (FXI): -34%
Japan (EWJ): -19%
Hong Kong (EWH): -30%
Taiwan (EWT): -26%
Malaysia (EWM): -23%
Singapore (EWS): -30%
South Korea (EWY): -34%
Australia (EWA): -28%
India (EPI): -33%
Thailand (THD): -32%
Indonesia (IDX): -58%
New Zealand (ENZL): -24%
Vietnam (VNM): -26%

So, there is really no good reason to diversify anymore? I guess you must still diversify, but NOT across countries. You need to diversify and pick the industries. If you are in developed nations banking, you are dead. But if you are in palm oil, you are still OK.  Diversification has a lot more to do with the industries you select rather than the countries you invest in. 

The other thing to remember is that correlation will be very high during the initial weeks and months of extreme volatility, investors will only try to distinguish between valuations proper after the volatility has subsided.

Diversification for currencies exposure, thats a potent subject. I think its only worthwhile to consider that if your portfolio is more than a couple of million USD. Safest havens: the HKD, the SGD, the Ringgit. HKD because it is still stupidly pegged to the bloated USD, thus undervaluing the real HKD effectively. Very soon, they will have to switch the HKD peg to a basket of currencies which will include the yuan, the euro and the yen - which in effect will be a sizable revaluation.

Monday, November 28, 2011

Attitude - The Critical Factor In Being A Success

I was surfing the net and came across this exceptional episode of 60 Minutes where they spoke to people, well kids really, whose family had lost their homes to foreclosure, and unemployment benefits ran out, losing almost everything they have, ... and having to live in a truck or a car because many of the shelters are already full.

You do not need a subprime crisis to find homeless people, people whose livelihood had been so broken up by things that happen around them. If you had not tasted hardships, you may not truly appreciate the things and people you have around you.

What is most wonderful is the attitude shown by the two kids being interviewed. Brings tears to your eyes to know some had to suffer so young. However, it is exactly that kind of attitude that I am sure will bring them success - monetary, relationships and career - in the near future. If you have kids, do your kids have that kind of attitude? Or like some, they just shrivel up into a cocoon, and blame everything around them for causing the misery ... 

I am not much for positive thinking therapy or those -rah-rah rallies by super salesmen to motivate us to excel and achieve. I believe if you have the right attitude, you can climb yourself out of any rut. The attitude that you alone can change your destiny, that you alone can make things better for yourself and those around you, that you alone is enough to make sense of the world again, and that you do not have to be a super human being to do all that. Just accept what life is now, and mark out where you want to be, and pinpoint how you are going to get there.

No one is going to gloss over it all, it will be long suffering at times when we are down, but no amount of self-pity will do anyone any good.

If our kids had that kind of attitude exemplified by the two kids in 60 Minutes, you can die happy knowing that they will do well in life.