Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Portfolios According To Outlook For 2009


Based on the global market prognosis written over the last few days, I have compiled stocks which will stand to benefit (should they pan out they way I anticipate). Again, these are not stock recommendations, these are my own shopping list - not a call for readers to buy. Consult your own investment advisers before making any investment decisions.

INTERNATIONAL STOCKS


DryShips Inc. (DRYS) Current price $9.69
52 week High-Low: $116.43-$3.04

Petrochina-H (0857.HK) Current Price HKD6.36
52 week High-Low: HKD12.40-HKD4.05

Toyota ( 7203.JT) Current price 2,900 yen

52 week High-Low: 6,400 yen - 2,585 yen


China Mobile (941:HK) Current price HKD74.50

52 week High-Low: HKD138.98 - HKD58.50


ABG Shipyard (ABGS:IN) Current price 99 rupee

52 week High-Low: 1,132 rupee - 90 rupee


Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (POT:CN) Current price C$81.70

52 week High-Low: C$246.50 - C$61.40


Newfield Exploration (NFX) Current price $18.32

52 week High-Low: $69.77 - $15.45


Li & Fung (494:HK) Current price HKD14.10

52 week High-Low: HKD36.80 - HKD10.82


Yahoo! Inc (YHOO) Current price $12.34
52 week High-Low: $30.25 - $8.94



MALAYSIAN STOCKS


Sapuracrest (SCRES:MK) Current price RM$0.76

52 week High-Low: RM$1.96 - RM$0.52


IOI Corp (IOI:MK) Current price RM$3.50
52 week High-Low: RM$8.60 - RM$2.08


AMMB (AMM:MK) Current price RM$2.42

52 week High-Low: RM$4.12 - RM$1.83


DIGI (DIGI:MK) Current price RM$21.50

52 week High-Low: RM$26.00 - RM$15.50


KNM Group (KNM:MK) Current price RM$0.405

52 week High-Low: RM$2.42 - RM$0.395



HIGH-RISK WARRANTS KICK-ASS PORTFOLIO*


AMMB-CB (May 25/2009) 0.01sen-0.015 sen
P: 57% G: 30x

Ex-Price/Mkt-Price: RM$3.75/RM$2.43


China Mobile-CC (May 5, 2009) 0.015-0.02 sen

P: 47% G: 24x
Ex-Price/Mkt-Price: 52.20/36.50


Petrochina-C8 (May 5, 2009) 0.02-0.03 sen

P: 49% G: 12x
Ex-Price/Mkt-Price: 4.45/3.12


Toyota-C2 (August 3, 2009) 0.05-0.06 sen

P: 73% G: 34x
Ex-Price/Mkt-Price: 4,950y/2,900y


* this is a high risk portfolio which one should not commit more than 10% of their investible funds, it is also likely that the exercise price will not be reached within the time to expiry, its an aggressive trade whereby one may make 100%-300% based on the anticipated recovery before March 2009


p/s photo: Athena Chu Yan


12 comments:

Ivan said...

Hi Dali,

That is great sharing on your secret :D haha . .

Allow me to add some wording...please ensure the cw that you want buy have VOLUME. Else, you may hard to disposel it.

TQ and Happy New year Dali :D

David said...

No Bursa? Bursa's fortune is inextricably linked with trading volume and to sentiment. And if the market does eventually turnaround, Bursa will be among the forerunners during the market upturn.

easystar said...

There are few counters in your list which I have been very interested in, however, Yahoo is one that I will not touch. Short term trading maybe.

Datuk said...

I had done a bit of research on the 2009 economic outlook during my 2 weeks long annual leave. Here are some of my findings:


i) The current worldwide recession is very similar with the 15 years long recession in Japan i.e. the japanese termed it as Balance Sheet Recession as a result of bursting of bubble in the property, equity and comodities markets in US and Western Europe. Thus, making most of the companies carrying with the liabilities more than asset.

ii) The roots of Balance Sheet recession were originated:

a)The free flow of international capitals from the lower return area into the higher return area without proper and effective local regulatory framework. Hence, the capital in flow and out flow will translated into excessive speculations,distorted the fundamental law of demand and supply and accelerated the momentum in prices movement. Along the journey, the gains in the in the up cycle had intensified the greed factors among all investors and speculators....and the mindset has been orientated to anticipate gains without considering the risk factors.

b)The effectiveness of the local central bank to cool down the markets by raising the interest rate had been dampened by the execessive inflow of "hot money". Thus, making the burble continous to ballon.

c) The widespread introduction of new innovative financial products in US (example: loans granted in the sub prime and the exccessive leveraging among financial institutions) without proper regulatory framework had expose the risk of capital inadequacy ratio among the financial institutions when the burble is busting. That's why out of sudden we are hearing all giants.....facing the problem of capital adequacy ratio.

Subsuquent to the so called Balance Sheet Recession.....all companies (and individual) will struggling to change their focus from profit maximization to minimizing debt. Under such scenario, do not expect the private behaviours to be responsive with the public monetary policies.Subsequently, the lowering of interest rate by the central banks will not be effective to increase the aggregate demand.

The only effective way is to boost up the aggregate demands by using the fiscal measure in term of gov. spending and taxe reduction. Howvever, unlike in Japan 15 years ago (carried with hugh surplus)....the options for US gov. to explore further fiscal stimulus are quite limited as they already carried with decade long of budget defisit.

In China, Japan and western europe....the current conditions although not as bad but none can replace the roles of US in supporting the prosperity cycle as we witnessed in the last 20 years.

So, be prepared to face this "L shape" great balance sheet reccesion! My estimation is 2009& 2010 would be the toughest operating environments since 1930s and many private entities are expected to be in bankruptcies.

Hence, my criteria for selecting companies to be invested:

I) Without debt and carry net cash for at least 30% of face value.

II) Must be at least in oligopolistic industry i.e 2-3 players dominance the entire market.

III) Valution wide....below the previous histrorical bear cycle and earning for 2009 has been down graded accordingly.

IV) Only invsted in the industry that i have some substantial experiences or well connected to.

Honestly speaking, only 6 companies survive in my list.

Good Day.

hng said...

Dear Datuk
May i know your 6 companies name thant fit into your criteria?

According to my analysis, there are company listed in bursa are in net cash namely: Ken, Paramount, Yilai, Zhulian, ALCOM, CCM Duopharma, Resort, Y.S.P. Others company also include JT Inter, Guiness, Carlsberg, Amway PetDag, Bintulu Port, Asiatic and bursa

Eric How, said...

I agree with Dali's pick for Sapcres.
I think 8575,Sapcres is a good buy. This company got many project......0.740 gonna be a good investment for 1 year....
Happy New Year all!
For a better year ahead. Cheers...

Eric How, said...

I agree with Dali's pick on Sapcres.
Sapcres,8575 got many project even in overseas.....
I personally think 0.700 is a good investment for 1 year.
Hope the coming year gonna be a better ahead. Cheers.......
Hapi New Year all...

Beginner said...

Hi Sifu

Advance Happy New Year.

Thanks for having a great blog esp from someone that is very knowledgeable not just in finance but in music, cigars, politics, psychology and etc.

Also, great babes and more importantly educating readers.

Would like to tap ur brains on KNM. Why KNM esp with low NTA of around RM 0.10-0.20. High goodwill and cancellation of contracts.

Cheers fr Beginner

wang said...

it seems dali has no idea what is happening to KNM.. I wonder why he still recommends this counter among his top picks... You know what they say? share price never lies... dali, quickly retract ur call before its too late... hahaha... anyway, its a typical fund manager's blind favorite...sigh...

wang said...

check KNM account please... a fraud is brewing... dali...

Ivan said...

Halo Dali,

Seem like a lot of reader love to know what is your secret to choice KNM....

Happy New Year & cheer !

sopsky said...

dali,

some updates.

DryShips Announces Violations

After market close yesterday, DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) announced that it was in violation of certain loan covenants in its loan agreements and that it would sell up to $500 million new common shares. As to the breaching of loan covenants, DRYS is in negotiations for the waiver and amendment of certain financial and other covenants contained in these loan agreements.

If DRYS is unsuccessful in these negotiations, the banks can foreclose on these vessels. In our view, this is not likely to occur as DRYS is in a better position to operate these vessels than the banks in question. Nevertheless, it is a possibility.