Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Temasek, Tide's Out, Skimpy Speedo
I usually do not bash Temasek (that much) except for when they irked the Thais and then the Indonesians. Temasek lost almost US$2 billion of a badly-timed US$3 billion in Shin Corp at a peak of 49.25 baht (Shin shares are now trading at around 15 baht) in 2006. The investment was not a bad one but the way they handled it (same in Indonesia) was appalling.
Being neighbours, Temasek should have known that certain assets will be viewed as sensitive and incursions will be seen as colonisation somewhat. You cannot stand behind the guise of being a professional asset manager when you are buying critical companies. Its the arrogance, its the attitude, we've got the money, so we can buy ... just like the way Singaporeans do not know how they appear in the eyes of their neighbours everytime they go traveling in the region ... we all cringe when some bloody tourists would exclaim "Waahhh, so Cheeaappp"... we know they have to be Singaporeans.
Its CEO, Ho Ching committed S$401 million in ASX -listed Centres at near the peak price of A$7.30 and then averaged down at between A$1.20 and A$4.00, bringing its commitment to over S$500 million. That investment is now essentially worthless although Temasek has yet to write it down. If you examine the biggest bust ups owing to the current financial crisis in Australia, its not the usual mining company or even the highly leveraged Macquarie or Babcock & Brown which are hogging the headlines. Its ABC Learning Centres - the company is not very big, but the audacity, excesses and sheer inept management in the company that brought about its implosion are now fodder for bar talk. Temasek does not have many Australian listed assets, hence it must be close to striking the lottery for them to be persuaded to pick ABC Learning Centres. What is galling is that with the many highly paid experts in Temasek, they did not manage to uncover anything in the due diligence. Though I was loathed to believe it when Buffett said "its dumb money", but I am persuaded now.
The company also bought 19% of LSE- listed Standard Chartered in 2006 only to see the market value of that stake melt 55% by November 21st. More bank stakes include a 975 million pound stake in Barclays Bank bought at the peak of 740 pence (with a further 100 million to subscribe for a rights issue at 282 pence), which have now sunk over 70% at 138 pence.
Their stake in Merrill Lynch got converted into Bank of America, that was OK, but there are rumours that Bank of America might not be able to go through with the buyout because Merrill's assets are too toxic. Most heinous of all is its US$6.88 billion stake in Citigroup bought with a minimum conversion price of $31.34. has since plunged 88% to $3.71 (even though it has now rebounded to $6.30), single-handedly delivering almost S$9 billion of red ink to Temasek's books.
What all this showed is that NO ONE in the whole of Temasek saw the early subprime imploding, or the credit excesses, or the CDOs danger, or the CDS potential liability. NO ONE. You mean no one warned about even ONE OF THE ITEMS? Well, obviously not in the past 12 months, not in the past 24 months, heck, not even in the past 5 years. I am not trying to be hindsight harry here. The point I am trying to make is that Temasek has chalked up supernormal gains every year from 2004-2007 thanks largely to their global banking stakes. China, the US, India, Indonesia... you name it..they have a bank or two there. Many have lauded Temasek's superior performance then, what about now? This showed me one major fault with Temasek: its outperformance was largely the wave and trend which carried them rather than from superior stock-picking or market strategy.
If you cannot read sectors properly or have solid equity strategy or stock picking skills or market timing ... what have you then... just a bunch of overpaid people. Which is why I always say that most analysts, economists and investment bankers have one big fear when they go off to bed at night... they all have the same nightmare (I hope no one finds out how average I am!!!). Good night and sleep tight.
Overall, the paper loss on these investments has exceeded S$35 billion as of October 21st. On a population of 3m, that works out to be about S$11,666 for every man, woman and child - a household of 4 might have had S$46,666. Could be worse I guess, could have been from my country.
p/s photo: Son Dam Bi
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