Friday, November 28, 2008

Rankings Of Yearly S&P500 Performance

As of the market close last Thursday, Nov. 20, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was down 48.8% for the year to date.

Had the markets called it a year at that point, 2008 would have gone down as the worst year in the history of the S&P index, which goes back (in one form or another) to 1926.

The only year that even came close was 1931, in the teeth of the Great Depression, when the S&P lost 43.3%. Here are the 20 worst years in history, based on Yale’s NYSE index until 1925, and for the S&P from 1926 onward:

1941 -11.6%
2001 -11.9%
1893 -12.3%
1857 -13.2%
1837 -13.4%
1828 -13.6%
1831 -14.0%
1973 -14.7%
1920 -15.0%
1841 -16.1%
1917 -16.4%
1884 -18.5%
1839 -19.0%
1907 -21.8%
2002 -22.1%
1930 -24.9%
1974 -26.5%
1937 -35.0%
1931 -43.3%
2008* -48.8%
*Through Nov. 20.

The closest carnage to 2008 was 1974 when the S&P500 lost 26.5%, the next closest was 2002 when it dipped just 22.1%. Aaah!!! The good old days.

Many people have been saying that the current financial crisis will be at least as bad as the Great Depression. But I’m not sure many people realize that the stock market has already had the worst year in all of American history.Take from this what you may.

p/s photos: Elanne Kong Yeuk Lam


Ivan said...

So, after the nov 30 ( hedge fund sell off), will the market will be ok?

CNY, Chrismas coming, window dressing will come or not?
I thought it will not come on 4Q 2008 but. . .

We know that the market is far from bottom , but s/term (2 mths) rebound may come?
any idea?

solomon said...

History as it is. Have to look forward from here.

There is always up and down like life.

Whether u want a worst than great depression to arrive at your door steps, it is up to us. Stimulus plan must come along with stability of jobs and wealth generation whether it is in equities or other mean, then the private consumption will rise.

Basically, consumer want to see the feel good factor before they willing to spend/invest. So, I reckoned if the govt funds want to see this next year, it shd consider pushing the mkt next week?? Perhaps, start off with construction stocks like MRCB or O&G like Scomi if oil price rise back to USD70 before year end.

Maybe not at all, will see.

Gamelion said...

Even in 1931, the teeth of the Great Depression, where the S&P lost 43.3%
is the greatest buy of all time since the US Stock Exchange being first establish because the dollar then is backed by SOLID PHYSICAL GOLD (actually during that time you can freely converted your dollar into physical gold). Today S&P 500 lost the greatest is no big deal and OMG !!! today dollar is back by toilet paper or at the mercy of foreign countries !!

mych said...

In the great Depression era, there were no sub prime high yield toilet paper sold world wide, hence the issue of US depression was contained in US without loss to other world citizens/gov..


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