Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Everybody Wants To Be Buffett

Lee Shau-kee said his investment strategy will switch to aggressive from defensive in August, and he forecasts the Hang Seng Index to hit 30,000 by that time. "The present moment might not be a good chance to enter the market. As I mentioned before, the right chance to buy more stocks is when [the Hang Seng] is at about 22,000," Lee told reporters yesterday after the annual general meeting of Hong Kong and China Gas.

Lee said the market will be "quiet" in summer, when stocks' performance tends to be unsatisfactory. "I will rather be defensive instead of aggressive," he said. Lee expects the blue-chip index will hover around 27,000 in the summer. "The investment environment will improve in August. When opportunities come, I will invest more."

Recently, Lee added Datang Power (0991) to his long-term investment portfolio, which also includes CITIC Pacific (0267), Country Garden (2007) and China Overseas Land (0688). "They are not alright [for reaping profits] in the coming few months. You've got to hold these stocks for two to three years," he explained.

Meanwhile, Lee sees continuing weakness in the US dollar in the coming 12 months. "Three years ago we already converted the currency of our assets into the Australian dollar when it was at about 70 US cents. With the Aussie dollar having increased to about 95 US cents, the value of our assets has risen about 30 percent.

Comments: Defensive or aggressive, Lee is basically adopting the Sell In May & Go Away strategy. Funny thing is Lee only talks about stuff he made money on - I am sure he has lost some money too, why no reporting on those? You want to be like Warren Buffett, be transparent with your picks. Its Ok l\to lose in stocks, I think you can have a 6 or 7 out of ten strike rate and still make a lot of money - what you have to make sure is that the 3 or 4 times you strike out, you must manage and limit your losses.

p/s photo: Carmen Soo

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