Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Wedding & Marriage
What we had yesterday from the US was a wedding, but they are in a long drawn out marriage as well. Weddings are joyous occasions, weddings are an event... marriage is a sentence, no, marriage is a life long thing. Weddings are always made up of hyper optimistic people and well-wishers, maybe they know the couple need all the luck they can get.
Pumping an additional US$200bn and then standing by Bear Stearns/JP Morgan for up to US$30bn, basically staved off a mini confidence crisis. Obviously the Fed has spent a lot on this wedding, maybe too much. Somebody has to pay off that via credit cards. There had been too much drinking during the wedding, now the day after, everyone has to trudge back to work and wait for the weekends again.
The chart above shows that the bulk of the recovery was in stocks which had the highest short positions - hence a short covering rally. Another 200-300 points uptick from here will see shorts starting their positions again.