Wednesday, March 05, 2008


1230-1250

That has been my buying entry target levels for a few weeks now, and its coming very soon. Naturally now that I post it, many will want me to justify my call. Well, its my opinion and market reading. I mentioned 1250 in Seng's chatbox a couple of weeks ago, and nobody said anything bearish. Now we can hear 1100 or even 1000 being predicted. It has a lot to do with reading investors' behaviour and sentiment. You don't want to sell at 1400, not at 1350 but at 1250 you really want to sell. That's good enough for me. You cannot really justify buying levels, everyone has one. If you map earnings growth two years out vis-a-vis interest rates less dividend yields, the market is already attractive at 1320, but I still did not see enough bearish calls. Now I am beginning to, and it looks ripe. The additional sums being forecast needed to be written off by banks and mortgage lenders (approximately another US$100bn) has worked its way into share prices somewhat. I see 11,750 as very decent entry levels for Dow stocks.


The current wave down is only slightly related to elections, I mean there are no elections in other markets but they are falling also. There may be some foreign selling ahead of the uncertainty of elections this weekend, but its more overall bad sentiment for stocks in general. I see opposition gaining good ground this time, 22 to maybe 35 or 40 seats. Is that bad or good, who cares. Markets will rebound whatever the result as long as BN is in power. Hope that the stronger preference for opposition will lead to more self-introspection by BN. One can only hope.



11 comments:

pureland said...

Hi Mr Dali

Care to comment about MUI ? Would the 4Q 2007 turn to black send a strong signal that their turnaround story a success ?
Thank you very much

The Rock said...

Hi,

Sort of agree with on entry level. based on last year's 2 crisis, KLSE tend to rebound after 200-300 p crash. My expectation is that market will continue to be jittery until this Friday. If anyone wants to sell, he would have to do it by this FRIday anyway. So hopefully it will drop another 20-50p in the next 2 days.

Based on PERs and Dividend Yields, a no of solid buys have emerged. Some good ones are trading at PER of 12-15X with yield of more than 5-10%. Amazing. And these counters have no exposure to US economy directly.

Also quite amazed that FMR is buying into Gamuda. I wonder if this will turn out to be another case of 'dumb American money' chasing after expensive Asian assets/shares.[as in many cases in China's private equity deals]

Cheers. TheRock

hellthy correction said...

dali,

funnily there is not much call on your side for the call warrants. Suddenly everyone realised that these are only bull mkt instruments? or are they just convertible currencies for those issuing houses? either way....whoever that promotes the use of leveraging (that includes u my fren) deep down definately knows that u dont make money thru gambling (the odds will catch up).

So cut the well informed, learned & know everything crap and stick to creation of wealth thru sustainable ways (warren's way). This im sure u lack not the knowledge.

Salvatore_Dali said...

hellthy,

you sound like you already have a good idea of what you want to do... if you don't like my style, don't read la, I don't charge you anything..

why should i cut the way i write, i like the way i write, i blog because i write the way i write... it may sound cocky to you, don't like it, stuff you... go fly kite... why should i subscribe to warren's way, i think he is good but don't think he is god ... you obviously is a benjamin graham love child, so go n start yr own worship graham blog n i promise i will visit often..

rask3 said...

Uncle Dali,

Ben Graham's love child, lol. Good one.

hellthy correction said...

instead of being professional in your views...u have stoop so low as to ridicule a lesser person such as i. At least you have shown us a side of u which only u and God will ever known. Have a good life dali (or whoever u may me). God bles u.

One humble advise from me.....always turn the other cheek or walk the extra mile....that would be the true opposition!

Salvatore_Dali said...

hellthy,

I WELCOME CONSTRUCTIVE comments... such like doraidd in the Khazanah's case. Look at what u said:

funnily there is not much call on your side for the call warrants. Suddenly everyone realised that these are only bull mkt instruments?
if u want to comment or criticise, at least read all my posting... read the entire first and second week of Jan 2008... I have asked all to sell out of stocks or u r partially blind??? so whats the fuck with the snide remark on call warrants?? when its good, where were u, u just aim at ppl at the time to YOUR CONVENIENCE and pick something ppl say in the past, u r a worm)

or are they just convertible currencies for those issuing houses? either way....whoever that promotes the use of leveraging (that includes u my fren) deep down definately knows that u dont make money thru gambling (the odds will catch up).
(Fucking judgmental... leverage is good if you know how to... if I get a yield higher than bank rates and lock in the risk, isn't leveraging good... u don't like it then shuddup... a stock falling will fall, with or without leverage... what is yr pt??)


So cut the well informed, learned & know everything crap and stick to creation of wealth thru sustainable ways (warren's way). This im sure u lack not the knowledge.
(Now this really pisses me off... IN WHAT FUCKING CAPACITY DO U HAVE THE RIGHT OR STATUS TO DEFINE & TELL ME WHAT I CAN, SHOULD WRITE... when did u proclaim yrself God's right hand man... go lick Buffett ahole... dipstick)

Salvatore_Dali said...

Again, for the rest of the readers, I use profanity for clarity & emphasis. TY.

hellthy correction said...

hahahahahah....a person who angers u control u! hahahhahahah

hellthy correction said...

i suppose i'll be banned from further posting and comments......

Salvatore_Dali said...

as u can see, i didn't ban u... just keep to constructive criticism ... anger is good if u r angry at the right things ... even jesus was angry many times when he walked the earth ...