Friday, September 30, 2011

AFG Worth Re-Entering Now


Now that Maybank and CIMB have left RHB alone, RHB is going after OSK. The EON Bank saga is finally over. There seems to be a timetable for banking mergers to be completed?!!?



Whatever it is AFG looks like a great candidate for re-entry at current prices.

 As a stock it is relatively safe, it has one of the more stable net dividend yields of over 4%. The other decent counters in that category include: Maxis (net yield of 7.2%), Sunway REIT (6.1%), DIGI (5.8%), Public Bank (4.2%), Malaysian Airports (4.0%) and the Alliance Finance Group (4.0%).



Despite the weak markets for the last few weeks, the stock price never went below RM3.00. The buying has been very keen in waves over the last few days, especially Friday. My gut feel is that AFG should announce a big deal very soon.





Undeservedly, it has probably the lowest PER for 2011 earnings at around 10.6x, maybe its due to its size. It certainly traded at the lowest Price to Book ratio of just 1.3x. Public Bank trades at 3x, CIMB at 2.2x, Maybank at 1.8x, while AMMB and RHB are both around 1.6x.

One sure thing is that given its size (smallish) and it cheap pricing, some foreign banks should be very keen to acquire AFG to get a foothold in Malaysia’s lucrative consumer banking sector.

The other factor could be that its Singapore investment arm holding the cards. Langkah Bahagia's interest in AFG is through a company called Vertical Theme, which is a joint venture between it (51 per cent) and Singapore state investment firm Temasek Holdings (41 per cent), that together own 29 per cent of AFG. First one must get the nod from Singapore, and then get the second nod from Bank Negara as an approved bidder.

In all likelihood, it needs to get bigger very fast or else will lose out even as a smaller nimbler player. If you consider the 4 major Singapore banks, only DBS Bank does not have an exposure in Malaysia, guess who owns DBS Bank. The other potential has to be Keppel Bank.



The key question is if DBS Bank really buys AFG, isn't the upside dictated by the terms of the deal? What if the deal is a market price thing, e.g. swap shares or transacted at RM3.40 ... what will happen then? We have to remember that it is highly unlikely that DBS would want to do a G.O., and neither is that palatable to Bank Negara. DBS may ask for a waiver from doing a mandatory G.O. if its crosses the 32% threshold, it will want to cross that because for accounting reasons and control purposes. Without a G.O., will the share price run then? Yes, because its DBS Bank, with its foothold investors will expect an aggressive move into the big leagues. Finally, a bank to be an alternative to the mega-deals besides CIMB/Maybank. As things stand now, DBS is already offering mega sized funding via offshore units to Malaysian public entities, one can just imagine the muscle with the banking license. Then you have to think of EPF, whom I am certain will keep upping its stake in AFG. Its only fair to allow Malaysian public interest to be represented in a foreign own "controlled financial industry". EPF would see to it that it gets a hefty slice of the action going forward. Put all that together, even if the deal is a market price deal, you can be assured of a major re-rating in the event of a deal.

I like the volume build up. Even if nothing eventuates in the short term, holders are relatively sheltered by its low P/B ratio and high net dividend yield. But if there is a M&A exercise, you can be sure that pricing will have to be at least 1.6x-1.7x minimum or RM4.96 - RM5.27. You do the math and the risk-reward yourself. Maybe the pricing may have been affected owing to the recent market turmoil. Even factoring another 10% discount you are looking at RM4.50 as a fair dealing price.

NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.



Thursday, September 29, 2011

Dialog Looking Good For A Pick-Up

Well, how long has it been since I have written about a stock? Better off not doing anything over the last 2 months. So, even when I write about this, I know very well, probably no one will care to follow, maybe only after it has rise another 20%.


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Following the slump, there are plenty of cheap(er) valuations but which to follow. The money will always follow the big money. Speculative stocks (i.e. syndicate controlled) will be hard pressed until the broader market recovers. Big money means, big funds, what would they be looking at. They will scan all available research, maybe stay away from GLCs for the time being with elections so near. Looking for a lot of comfort on the upside and downside. Plus there must be sufficient liquidity.


Dialog ticks all boxes. Target prices set by most houses are close to RM3.00 after having scan recent reports (issued over last 2 weeks). Its now at 30% discount to NAV, a pretty safe range considering its average discount was closer to 14%. great liquidity.


Key potential catalysts besides the above: additional capacity (end user) at Tanjung langsat; and EPCC contract from Petronas' RM60bn Rapid project.





Dialog Group Bhd (Dialog), an oil and gas industry player, announced that its subsidiary Dialog Engineering & Construction Sdn Bhd (DECSB) had signed an engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) contract and alliance agreement with Pengerang Independent Terminals Sdn Bhd (PITSB).


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A research report by OSK Research Sdn Bhd (OSK Research) indicated that the job scope estimated at RM1.9 billion included provision of the EPCC on an alliancing basis for the first phase of the independent deepwater petroleum terminal at Pengerang, Johore, and was expected to be completed by 2014.


The report quoted, “PITSB is a special purpose vehicle which will be 90 per cent owned by Pengerang Terminals Sdn Bhd (PTSB) and the balance 10 per cent owned by the State Secretary of Johore. PTSB is the joint venture company between Dialog and Vopak, with 51 per cent and 49 per cent ownership respectively.


DECSB, on the other hand, had successfully built a tank terminal, including terminal facilities in Kertih, Terengganu and Tanjung Langsat, Johore,” the report added.


There would be three phases of development and the deepwater petroleum terminal would ultimately have a total capacity of five million cubic meters and six vessel berths. The entire terminal would be on contiguous onshore and seabed land between Tanjung Ayam and Tanjung Kapal, Pengerang.


There would also be a harbour port, jetty and other marine facilities with water depth of up to 26 metres, which would facilitate the handling ultra large crude carriers (ULCCs) and very large crude carriers (VLCCs).


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This terminal would be used for handling, storage, processing and distribution of crude oil, petroleum, petrochemicals and other chemical products.


Dialog was in a net cash position of RM282 million as at Mar 31, 2011. Dialog had yet to determine the ratio for these two means of financing. OSK Research did not think there would be high borrowings since the RM1.9 billion cost would be spread over a period of three to four years.


Also, with the EPCC job awarded back to Dialog’s 100 per cent subsidiary, DECSB, the cash would ultimately flow back to the group. The job award was regarded as being in line with management guidance of its EPCC division securing about RM500 million worth of contracts per annum.


The research house continued to regard the company as one of the most defensive oil and gas stocks in its sector, and one that possessed a steady business model as well as being in a net cash position.


Furthermore, the analyst opined that as Dialog constructed and managed more terminals, it would be enjoying more recurring income and good cash flow as well.


Based on a sum-of-parts valuation, the research pegged fair value for the company at an unchanged at RM3.12 per share.

Where We Are Right Now

This aptly summarises where we are right now, quite brilliantly. Got this from my friend, no source recorded.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Why Investing Is So Difficult? (Updated)



This was posted back in January, thought I should add a few more pointers. The market can be mad or even maddening but we cannot afford to be either. Successful people have that quiet confidence about them, and in the way they carry out each project. Confidence can be in your own abilities and with a distinct minimal fear of failure.


Maya Karin


The trouble is when you make investment choices based on "madness" or rage. Then there is over confidence, or rather a blatant disregard of the consequences (can only focus on the positive consequences), and an abject disregard of the fear of failure. Both scenarios are terrible choices.


Again, the key word is "choice", its a choice we make. The quiet confidence that people have stems from how they faced previous successes and failures. They take both into their strides, never letting one to bog them down or lift them up too high from learning more. Too many people just dwell on their failures too long, always thinking "what if". This is a sickness, too many people face failures by dwelling in depression, its a kind of self pity treatment ... oh, woe is me, look how sad and broken I am ... Successful people also have their share of failures, its how they deal with them that separates them from the boys.


Warren Buffett says the investor's greatest enemy is themselves. Every investor will have their own tale of letting emotions get the better of them, whether it's getting sucked into the hype or failing to cut your losses.


The markets are bizarre and silly. How else to explain a financial history littered with booms and busts? To believe the market is always rational is like saying people never let their emotions - greed, fear, whatever - get the better of common sense. Once you accept that basic truth, it's time to recognise your own biases and mental rules of thumb, which can lead you to make poor decisions.

Let's start with a basic question: are you a better-than-average investor? Most of us will answer: of course I am. And it's not just amateurs. If you are NOT, why are you still dabbling in the markets? If you think you are, do you know why? If you cannot answer one of the two or both, you should not be playing shares.

If you think you are, surveys showed that more than 70% tend to believe they are better than the average investor. Nothing wrong with a bit of self-belief, is there? In fact, being overly optimistic about one's own abilities is one of the most prevalent mental biases and also one of the most dangerous one. That's because overconfidence can lead to overtrading, which studies have shown leads to individual investors drastically underperforming the market. 


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Seriously, we all cannot be better than average ... certainly a large portion of us are very wrong! So, being realistic about your own abilities is important, yet it's something that eludes most of us. It's also against our nature to be contrarian. Uncomfortable alone, we seek the safety of the crowd, sometimes with disastrous consequences.


Psychologists use a theory known as "cognitive dissonance" to help explain the persistence of booms and busts. It means most of us feel anxious when faced with conflicting beliefs. So, to assuage this feeling, we tend to gravitate towards new information that supports what we want to believe. To get rid of this nasty feeling of dissonance we may also change our previous feelings or thoughts on a subject.

For example, you may have been the most rational of property investors, insisting on a reasonable rental yield before buying. But as the property market inflated, you started looking for reasons to no longer stick to your investing rules: for example, by saying that property was in a "new paradigm" where the old rules no longer apply. Its the same old argument, "this time its different", ... they are never different, just new idiots blowing the same horn every few years.

Human psychology is very important to investing. Why do you think so many people hold on to stocks that are dogs, and never let their profits run. They take minimal gains but ride the down trend in losses like piss poor performing CEOs. Its BECAUSE, we hate losses more than we LOVE gains. Its BECAUSE we remember LOSSES more than gains. You make RM10,000 ... ha-ha, you are happy for a couple of days ... you lose RM10,000 .. you are miserable for a whole month, always thinking what RM10,000 could have bought you and your family. If you have that mentality still, don't play stocks.

We tend not to let our profits ride, or is too quick to take profits ... because we fear LOSSES more than we like GAINS. You have that mentality, go shop at pasar malam, stop playing stocks.


I was having a fantastic discussion about investing with a close friend and thought I should blog about it. It has to do with book smarts and investing. We see many people subscribing to technical charting software (expensively) to try to beat the market, maybe they have given up on trying to understand and beat the market on fundamentals after years of trying.




How does one become a better than average investor, don't even say super market player? I doubt very much one can be great by studying the books. I mean we get tons of super brainy people graduating with honours in corporate finance and/or MBA all the time ... and say these people go on to study religiously the ways and strategies of Buffett, Soros, Graham-Doddsville, Ben Graham, Peter Lynch, Bruce Berkowitz, etc... - can they then be superior investors?

I don't have to answer that because the reality is for all to see, an emphatic NOOOOO. Investing is quite silly and befuddling. We try to regard it as a "subject" that can be studied, I mean if a person is brainy and wants to be a doctor, you will eventually be one by getting the degree, and if one wants to be a surgeon, he can go for more studies and training, and he will be a surgeon, he can be a better surgeon by learning all the time about the latest equipment and research findings and hone his/her skills .... you put in so much, you get so much output and benefits ... but the same cannot be said about investing, its not like you put in so much, you will end up a better investor!!!



I think investing is a like a growing mass of blob or astronomy, the more you know, the more you don't know. Does it mean that if you are a superior analyst for 20 years that you will see a similar track record when you become a fund manager? No. Does it mean if you are a brilliant performer when your portfolio is $2mn that you can then manage similar returns with a $200m portfolio? No.

For many people, we just want to beat the market consistently. Is that a futile effort? I don't think so. I believe there are many that can beat the markets consistently but must also be cognizant of a few truths:

a) no matter how good you are in investing, you will never have a perfect batting record, I believe superior investors will make money in 6 or 7 out of every 10 trades ... if you are not so good your averages will dwindle.

b) if (a) is a truth, then we must let our profits run and know how to minimise our losses, we must not let our losses get us down or get angry and try to average down aggressively again and again - that's like not acknowledging the first time you bought was a mistake (timing wise or valuation wise) and just stubbornly holding on to the hope that you are still right.


c) cutting your losses is something many "aunties" (I use that term not to describe all aunties but male/female who just cannot bear to cut losses) will never do, they just keep holding and holding until they have 30 stocks in the portfolio.

d) you must know that the market is bigger than any kind of technicals or fundamentals, even Public Bank will go down if the overall market is going down, can always buy back later ... e.g. if you hold a stock at entry price of RM3.00 and it went to RM3.60 but you did not sell, it goes back to RM3.00 and you hate yourself, but you know its a good stock so you hold on, then the market turns and it goes to RM2.60, you hate yourself even more but is unwilling to cut, it then goes to RM2.20 and you have no more money to average down ... yes if fundamentals is intact it will go back to RM3.00 but what was the opportunity cost??? It may have taken 3 or 6 months to see that thing climb back. If you had cut at RM2.80 ... you could have bought back at RM2.30 and ride it on the way up. Another point, if you had cut at RM2.80 and did not buy at RM2.20 and then recovers swiftly to RM3.00, even at RM3.10 or RM3.20 you should still go back in (something the majority will NEVER get themselves to do) ... which leads to my next reality.

e) The same stock may be RM2.20 or RM3.00 or RM3.50 and still look good depending on the state of the markets. Buying when it recovers back to RM3.20 may be a good move because the overall condition of the market has improved markedly. Selling the same stock at a loss at RM2.50 my be a good move because the downside or downtrend looks to be quite prolonged.

f) Fixating our basis of fair value. We use anchor and adjust too much in investing. If we had bought SP Setia-WB at RM2.00 and did not sell at RM2.30, we still use RM2.00 as your ultimate reference price, hence when it dips to RM1.50, you think its a good buy because to you this thing cost RM2.00 a couple of weeks ago. You know, and only you know RM2.00 was a "fair price" because the share price has NO recollection that its fair value was RM2.00. Fair value is a moving term, its not formed in an unmovable statue carving. Fair value is dependent of the state of markets. If it has fallen to RM1.50, then RM1.50 is your only reference price, not RM2.00. (p/s SP Setia-WB has gone to below 40 sen ... where is "fair value" now?)



g) never belittle a trend, be it upside or downside, is it better to buy at RM1.80 and then later at RM1.50 and then later at RM1.20 ... 3 times in a down trending market as they all represent value? Or is it better to buy after it has hit a low of RM1.20 and then moved back up to RM1.80, and then only buy at RM1.80 - its the latter of course because when you buy at RM1.80 in the latter's case the trend is favourable and market conditions have improved. Must learn not to say "aiyah, it was RM1.30, wanted to buy then but did not" ... that is always only uttered by the usual market losers, I can guarantee you that.

h) Woulda, coulda, shoulda ... stop thinking like the people talking rots at kopitiams because those sentiments will never get you anywhere and always uttered by people who will fail at most things they do in life. Learn, keep learning, give yourself the integrity of bypassing the "woulda, coulda, shoulda", move on ... what you did not do means diddlysquat to you and to all.

So, if you think certain books or courses can help you be a better investor, by all means do it, there is no magic "model" that is out there. If there is, you better believe that it will be selling for millions of dollars. Investing is a large unknown just like your brainpower usage rate, you might know 3% of the whole thing but if something can help you get to 4%, and improve your batting average, how can that hurt.

So, in the end all the gurus are just people who have 5%-6% knowledge of the topic compared to the average investor who may be at 3% ... overall, in that light no one is a guru, not even Buffett.

The market does not owe us a living. How to be surefire winner in the markets - don't be a buyer of shares, be an issuer of shares ... ; )

Monday, September 26, 2011

Papa Said There Will Be Times Like These

Some have written to say why no updates ... markets like these what to write home la ... Nothing good to say, say nothing la. One thing is clear, its very difficult for markets to rise but when they fall, its very quick indeed. All I can say is that the sharper and faster the falls, the more pressure is put on EU to come up with a thorough solution. Till now, much of it have been band-aid types.




Following on before when I said EU will not let Greece default, well, now after thinking through, I think it will be best to let Greece default. However, before they do that, they MUST do a backstop for other troubled nations like Italy, Portugal, Spain ... You know that when Greece defaults, the contagion effects will paralyse the markets even more ... I am sure the EU knows that. Hence a super fund must be established to soak up all the next in line PIIGS sovereign bonds, provide sufficient funds to stave off any potential bank runs in PIIGS.


Currently the EU has set aside only 440bn euros to do that. Maybe enough for Greece but not the contagion effects. The rescue fund would now have to morph into a US TARP like fund, whereby in the event Greece defaults, the PIIGS can tap the fund to soothe fears.


Greece will have to be allowed to default because the political scene is not encouraging to push through the needed austerity measures. By means of a default, it just means allowing the country to negotiate a huge haircut on outstanding bonds and loans. Most creditors took a small haircut already but obviously the repayment is still way too large, we should be looking at 60 cents to the dollar - only by lowering Greece outstanding would that come to some sort of workability.


A US style TARP for EU should be in the region of 1.5 trillion euros. Its now not a matter of how much resources you want to commit, its a matter of restoring confidence. Confidence can be bought but not in drips and trickle, it has to do with perception. Hence the TARP fund must be sizable, whether you end up using it is another issue.





The bear is growling very loudly, but thankfully for Asia and much of Latin America, its only in share prices and not (yet) into the real economy. We should be grateful and thankful that we are seeing a full blown global market correction but not devastatingly affected. However, we need to consider why we are not affected, LUCK? Are we doing things properly enough to minimise the next correction? What if the correction was in China?


As a small country, we are at the mercy of global and regional markets. All the more reason that we need to shore up our finances and reinvest properly. We all know that leakages and wastage in Malaysia over the past 30 years, if properly invested in people and industry, would have put us at least just beneath HK and Singapore. We are lucky enough that DESPITE the wastages and leakages, we are still around, dropping but still around.  How much longer can we still do that?

Sunday, September 25, 2011

The Bike I Want!

Finally, the bike I want is on the road ... the Tron bike and almost all electric. Looks to be a bit hard to ride, but hey, gaya mesti ada ...


Thursday, September 22, 2011

Something Different

I was browsing through my links and came across this wonderfully beautiful tribute to two ladies. Both were recently featured in The Star as historical "articles". Am I the only one here who thinks that those 30-40 year old articles were wonderful reads, much much better than what we get nowadays. I digress.


It so happened that the blogger knew the two ladies well, Adele Koh and Jean Pereira. Go to the link and have a read, the song at the end was touchingly apt.


http://zorro-zorro-unmasked.blogspot.com/2011/09/remembering-adele-koh-and-jean-periera.html

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Dilbert@Malaysia ... scene at a number of public listed CEO offices

What Change Are We Asking For?

We are all clamouring for change and reforms, but in many of us its the ABU mentality that pervades our thinking (not that its a bad thing). ABU, anything but UMNO. That can be the initial source of aggravation or anger or disillusionment. Let's not be swayed by the so called repeal of ISA laws, to me and to many, that is just the tip of the iceberg of resentment.


We must also know what kind of change we are propagating, we are not lunatics protesting at the asylum, although that might not be a far fetched scenario. We need to be knowing of what we are fighting for, what we are demanding, whether its achievable within our life time and realistic enough within the context of our makeup and history.


The Bill of Rights promoted by RPK's Civil Liberties unit is wonderful, but even RPK knows that they are a bit of a reach given where we are, even if opposition wins the next elections conclusively. Still, its a fantastic blueprint to support where we are going. Bersih's mandate has more to do with immediacy, making sure the voting process is clear and transparent - at least after all that we can say we deserve the government elected.


For me, and this is my humble view only. If I am elected Prime Minister (naturally of the opposition, and them winning), these are the top things on my list of priorities:


1) Abolish the MACC, and replace with a totally new unit with teeth and independence
2) Restore the independence of the judiciary, together with a working group from the Law Society, formulate the steps to restore that independence
3) Reform and rework the standing, independence and stature of our Police force. To that end a formidable unit similar to HK's ICAC be set up, reporting only to the courts, not even to the Parliament
4) Put  through a rule that no political parties or its affiliates or GLCs can own any newspaper or media apparatus, they have 12 months to sell down their stakes to zero of have their stakes repossessed by the government for $0
5) Publishing licenses to be made available to any corporation with RM20m in paid up
6) All local universities will be temporarily suspended until they pass the "relevance test" (ability to make the top 200 universities ranking in the world). Qualified students would be subsidised to enter "proven local universities" (Sunway, HELP, etc.) until the whole situation clears up
7) Local education system to revert to teaching science and maths in English, passing English at O Levels is mandatory before progressing to any local universities
8) Removal of gas, fuel and electricity subsidies for corporations over a 3 year period
9) Federal budget grants for all states will be in accordance to population of each state, except where the resource is mined/or sourced from that state, in which case that state can keep 20% of royalties in addition
10) Salaries for civil service will be reviewed to be in step with private sector, as such 20% of lowest performers will be weeded out over a 3 year period, and a corresponding 20%-30% increase in salaries can be afforded for those remaining in civil service. Naturally if we are to put in place strict laws against corruption and assuming the enforcement is strong and independent, we should make all ministerial salaries fair (e.g. RM40,000-80,000 a month, and double that for DPM and PM)
11) A 40% quota for all senior and top management positions in GLCs and civil service reserved for non-bumis effective till 2025
12) A proper resolution to how we treat and regard our indigenous people, with reserve land and basic housing, without trampling over their culture
13) Full transparency on all government contracts, tenders
14) The gradual removal of subsidies or protection for certain  industries (e.g. cement, steel, autos) over a 3 year period - if we cannot produce as cheaply or efficiently as somewhere else, why bother producing? The world is flat, if HK or Singapore can survive without those industries, we can


You would have noticed that I have not broached the topic on full equality as I think that needs a longer process. As a Malaysian, I want all to climb up the ladders of success together, not leaving any groupings behind.  Before anyone starts to say that these are fine objectives but difficult to implement, we have to start somewhere, you would be surprised what we can do in the end.


Bersih 2.0′s calls consist of 8 points. In summary, they are:
1. Clean the electoral roll
2. Reform postal ballot
3. Use of indelible ink
4. Minimum 21 days campaign period
5. Free and fair access to media
6. Strengthen public institutions
7. Stop corruption
8. Stop dirty politics



Raja Petra Kamarudin
I. Equality
1. Everyone is equal before the law and has the right to equal protection and benefit of the law.
2. Equality includes the full and equal enjoyment of all rights and freedoms. To promote the achievement of equality, legislative and other measures designed to protect or advance persons, or categories of persons, disadvantaged by unfair discrimination may be taken. 
3. The state may not unfairly discriminate directly or indirectly against anyone on one or more grounds, including race, gender, sex, pregnancy, marital status, ethnic or social origin, colour, sexual orientation, age, disability, religion, conscience, belief, culture, language and birth.

II. Freedom and security of the person
Everyone has the right to freedom and security of the person, which includes the right: ­
i. not to be deprived of freedom arbitrarily or without just cause;
ii. not to be detained without trial;
iii. to be free from all forms of violence from either public or private sources;
iv. not to be tortured in any way;
v. not to be treated or punished in a cruel, inhuman or degrading way.

III. Privacy
Everyone has the right to privacy, which includes the right not to have: ­
i. their person or home searched;
ii. their property searched;
iii. their possessions seized;
iv. the privacy of their communications infringed.

IV. Freedom of religion, belief and opinion
1. Everyone has the right to freedom of conscience, religion, thought, belief and opinion.
2. Religious observances may be conducted at state or state-aided institutions, provided that: ­
i. those observances follow rules made by the appropriate public authorities;
ii. they are conducted on an equitable basis;
iii. attendance at them is free and voluntary and without compulsion or force.

V. Freedom of expression
1. Everyone has the right to freedom of expression, which includes: ­
i. freedom of the press and other media;
ii. freedom to receive or impart information or ideas;
iii. freedom of artistic creativity;
iv. academic freedom and freedom of scientific research.
2. The right in subsection (1) above does not extend to: ­
i. propaganda for war;
ii. incitement of imminent violence;
iii. advocacy of hatred that is based on race, ethnicity, gender or religion, and that constitutes incitement to cause harm.

VI. Freedom of assembly, demonstration, picket and petition
Everyone has the right, peacefully and unarmed, to assemble, to demonstrate, to picket and to present petitions.

VII. Freedom of association
Everyone has the right to freedom of association.


VIII. Political rights
1. Every citizen is free to make political choices, which includes the right: ­
i. to form a political party;
ii. to participate in the activities of, or recruit members for, a political party;
iii. to campaign for a political party or cause.
2. Every citizen has the right to free, fair and regular elections for any legislative body established in terms of the Constitution.
3. Every adult citizen has the right: ­
i. to vote in elections for any legislative body established in terms of the Constitution, and to do so in secret;
ii. to stand for public office and, if elected, to hold office.

IX. Citizenship 
No citizen may be deprived of citizenship.

X. Freedom of movement and residence
1. Everyone has the right to freedom of movement.
2. Everyone has the right to leave the country.
3. Every citizen has the right to enter, to remain in and to reside anywhere in, the country.
4. Every citizen has the right to a passport.

XI. Labour relations
1. Everyone has the right to fair labour practices.
2. Every worker has the right: ­
i. to form and join a trade union;
ii. to participate in the activities and programmes of a trade union;
iii. to strike.
3. Every employer has the right: ­
i. to form and join an employers' organisation;
ii. to participate in the activities and programmes of an employers' organisation.
4. Every trade union and every employers' organisation has the right: ­
 i. to determine its own administration, programmes and activities;
 ii. to organise;
iii. to form and join a federation.
5. Every trade union, employers' organisation and employer has the right to engage in collective bargaining.

XII. Arrested, detained and accused persons
1. Everyone who is arrested for allegedly committing an offence has the right: ­
i. to remain silent;
ii. to be informed promptly: ­
            a. of the right to remain silent; and
            b. of the consequences of not remaining silent;
iii. not to be compelled to make any confession or admission that could be used in evidence against that person;
iv. to be brought before a court as soon as reasonably possible, but not later than: ­
            a. 24 hours after the arrest; or
            b. the end of the first court day after the expiry of the 24 hours, if the 24 hours expire outside ordinary court hours or on a day which is not an ordinary court day;
v. at the first court appearance after being arrested, to be charged or to be informed of the reason for the detention to continue, or to be released.
2. Everyone who is detained, including every sentenced prisoner, has the right: ­
i. to be informed promptly of the reason for being detained;
ii. to choose, and to consult with, a legal practitioner, and to be informed of this right promptly;
iii. to have a legal practitioner assigned to the detained person by the state and at state expense, if substantial injustice would otherwise result, and to be informed of this right promptly;
iv. to challenge the lawfulness of the detention in person before a court and, if the detention is unlawful, to be released;
v. to conditions of detention that are consistent with human dignity, including at least exercise and the provision, at state expense, of adequate accommodation, nutrition, reading material and medical treatment;
vi. to communicate with, and be visited by, that person's ­
            a. spouse or partner;
            b. next of kin;
            c. chosen religious counsellor; and
            d. chosen medical practitioner.
3. Every accused person has a right to a fair trial, which includes the right: ­
i. to be informed of the charge with sufficient detail to answer it;
ii. to have adequate time and facilities to prepare a defence;
iii. to a public trial before an ordinary court;
iv. to have their trial begin and conclude without unreasonable delay;
v. to be present when being tried;
vi. to choose, and be represented by, a legal practitioner, and to be informed of this right promptly;
vii. to have a legal practitioner assigned to the accused person by the state and at state expense, if substantial injustice would otherwise result, and to be informed of this right promptly;
viii. to be presumed innocent, to remain silent, and not to testify during the proceedings;
ix. to adduce and challenge evidence;
x. not to be compelled to give self-incriminating evidence;
xi. to be tried in a language that the accused person understands or, if that is not practicable, to have the proceedings interpreted in that language;
xii. not to be convicted for an act or omission that was not an offence under either national or international law at the time it was committed or omitted;
xiii. not to be tried for an offence in respect of an act or omission for which that person has previously been either acquitted or convicted;
xiv. to the benefit of the least severe of the prescribed punishments if the prescribed punishment for the offence has been changed between the time that the offence was committed and the time of sentencing;
xv. of appeal to, or review by, a higher court.
4. Whenever this section requires information to be given to a person, that information must be given in a language that the person understands.
5. Evidence obtained in a manner that violates any right in the Bill of Rights must be excluded if the admission of that evidence would render the trial unfair or otherwise be detrimental to the administration of justice.

XIII. State of emergency
 A state of emergency may be declared only in terms of an Act of Parliament, and only when: ­
1. the nation is threatened by war, invasion, general insurrection, disorder, natural disaster or other public emergency; and
2. the declaration is necessary to restore peace and order.