On My Way Back

Its been a tiring 8 days in the Land of the Rising Sun ... now stuck at Changi on my way back to KL. Read The Straits Times and thought it was very funny to see UOB Kay Hian circulating a memo to thier staff on "how to do self exclusion" from the 2 integrated resorts. You can actually apply to have yourself barred from entering the two casinos, or your parents or spouse could do that for you as well, provided there are sufficient proof that you are a problem gambler.

Now, why would a top local broking house do that? Its a bit embarressing. A gentle reminder? Or do you already know of problem gamblers within your midst? Must be some over-power-hungry HR staffer trying to win brownie points.

As if you didn't already know that stocks investing is almost like going to the casino - except that we don't yell picture picture loudly ... we do yell profanities though, whether they are going up or down. Or is it that the broking house knows that more money lost at casinos will translate to less funds available for stock punting or "remisiers' collateral".

Anyways, came across The Black Swan book by Taleb again, I have one big black swan but this black swan is a positive one not a dangerous one. I think most people would have the US economy sputtering at 2%-3% growth in 2011 .... the black swan is, how about 5%-6%. Think about it.

My other early prediction in 2010 about CIMB buying Public Bank did not come true, not yet anyway ... temporarily, CIMB may have shifted its target to acquiring Affin Bank @ RM4.50 according to reliable sources. So reliable, that they had to call me up in Tokyo. Traders beware.

I checked prices yesterday with a friend and relayed the story, he said "no-la, CIMB came out with a buy report on Affin". I said, "I knew about the buy report 3 days ago, sometimes things are not so obvious, sometimes they are so obvious you forget to look a bit further.