Skip to main content

Morgan Stanley (again), My Fav Strategists

Asia/Pacific Equity Strategy

Start Buying Asia-Pac: +10% by Year-End
August 21, 2007

By Malcolm Wood, Ryan Tsai, Corey Ng

We see six reasons to buy Asia-Pac: This has been the largest bull market correction in 20 years, valuations are moderately attractive, earnings momentum and fundamentals are positive, the fallout from the US credit squeeze should be limited, Asia liquidity conditions are still strong, and sentiment has turned pessimistic. We have also raised our year-end index target by 3%, to 480.

Estimating the US Fallout: Impact on Asia Should Be Limited. The credit squeeze should keep growth sluggish in the US. The squeeze should deepen the housing downturn, slow job growth and lift the saving rate. Asia has four offsets to mitigate the US impact: re-directing exports, and gaining export market share; strong economic momentum and fundamentals; the liquidity boom; and potential political stimulus. We would avoid Asia stocks with large US exposure.

Country Strategy - Overweight China, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore. In a context of slowing G7 growth and Fed rate cuts, our preferred markets are China and Hong Kong. In China we see significant upside earnings potential, while Hong Kong should benefit from lower US rates and China capital inflows. We raised Thailand to a neutral weight, given its progress toward elections. We reduced Australia, where liquidity is tight, and valuation unattractive. India stays underweight despite an improving rate outlook, given political uncertainty, high valuation and poor earnings revisions. In our model portfolio we overweight banks, insurers, consumer, property and telcos.


Bee Hong said…
Hi Dali,
Regarding Morgan Stanley's statement: " Asia has four offsets to mitigate the US impact: re-directing exports, and gaining export market share; strong economic momentum and fundamentals; the liquidity boom; and potential political stimulus. We would avoid Asia stocks with large US exposure."

I wonder where else can the 4 mentioned countries channel their exports? since US is probably the biggest goods importer of these 4 countries.

About "..and gaining export market share"... I'm a bit confuse here. China and Malaysia are direct competitors, just like HK and S'pore are both direct competitors. Can we assume that one country gain in export market share is the lost of the other country?

Please shed some lights as my knowledge in macro economy is limited. Thanks!

Popular posts from this blog

My Master, A National Treasure

REPOST:  Its been more than two years since I posted on my sifu. This is probably the most significant posting I had done thus far that does not involve business or politics. My circle of close friends and business colleagues have benefited significantly from his treatment.

My Master, Dr. Law Chin Han (from my iPhone)

Where shall I start? OK, just based on real life experiences of those who are close to me. The entire Tong family (Bukit Kiara Properties) absolutely swear that he is the master of masters when it comes to acupuncture (and dentistry as well). To me, you can probably find many great dentists, but to find a real Master in acupuncture, thats a whole different ballgame.

I am not big aficionado of Chinese medicine or acupuncture initially. I guess you have to go through the whole shebang to appreciate the real life changing effects from a master.

My business partner and very close friend went to him after 15 years of persistent gout problem, he will get his heavy attacks at least…

PUC - An Assessment

PUC has tried to reinvent itself following the untimely passing of its founder last year. His younger brother, who was highly successful in his own right, was running Pictureworks in a number of countries in Asia.

The Shares Price Rise & Possible Catalysts

Share price has broken its all time high comfortably. The rise has been steady and not at all volatile, accompanied by steady volume, which would indicate longer term investors and some funds already accumulating nd not selling back to the market.

Potential Catalyst #1

The just launched Presto app. Tried it and went to the briefing. Its a game changer for PUC for sure. They have already indicated that the e-wallet will be launched only in 1Q2018. Now what is Presto, why Presto. Its very much like Lazada or eBay or Alibaba. Lazada is a platform for retailers to sell, full stop. eBay is more for the personal one man operations. Alibaba is more for wholesalers and distributors.

Presto links retailers/f&b/services originators with en…

How Long Will The Bull Lasts For Malaysia

Are we in a bull run? Of course we are. Not to labour the point but I highlighted the start of the bull run back in January this year... and got a lot of naysayers but never mind:

p/s: needless to say, this is Jing Tian ... beautiful face and a certain kind of freshness in her looks and acting career thus far

I would like to extend my prediction that the bull run for Bursa stocks should continue to run well till the end of the year. What we are seeing for the past 3 weeks was a general lull where volume suddenly shrunk but the general trend is still intact. My reasons for saying so:

a) the overall equity markets globally will be supported by a benign recovery complemented by a timid approach to raising rates by most central banks

b) thanks to a drastic bear run for most commodities, and to a lesser extent some oil & gas players, the undertone for "cost of materials" have been weak and has pr…