Sunday, July 31, 2011

The Vote

The US is seeming going through a do or die vote in the Senate. Do we need to care? I guess we do esp if there was no resolution passed by August 2.

袁泉

Latest Update: In a last-minute stab at compromise, Republican congressional leaders and the White House made significant progress Saturday night toward a deal to avert a government default threatened for early next week, according to officials familiar with the talks.

Under the plan, the nation's debt limit would rise in two steps by a total of about $2.4 trillion and spending would be cut by a slightly larger amount, these officials said. The first stage _ about $1 trillion _ would take place immediately and the second later in the year.

Congress would be required to vote on a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution, but none of the debt limit increase would be contingent on its approval.

One Republican official said the two sides had settled on general concepts, but added there were numerous details to be worked out, and no assurance of a final agreement. A Democratic official said the two sides were "not really" close to a deal, but added that one could come together quickly. They spoke only on condition of anonymity about the private negotiations.

Word of significant progress after weeks of stalemate offered the strongest indication yet that an economy-crippling default might be averted. Without legislation in place by next Tuesday, administration officials say the Treasury will run out of funds to pay all the nation's bills. They say a subsequent default could prove catastrophic for the U.S. economy and send shockwaves around the world.

President Barack Obama is seeking legislation to raise the government's $14.3 trillion debt limit by about $2.4 trillion, enough to tide the Treasury over until after the 2012 elections. Over many weeks, he has agreed to Republican demands that deficits be cut _ without a requirement for tax increases _ in exchange for additional U.S. borrowing authority.

But President Barack Obama has threatened to veto any legislation that would require a second vote in Congress for any additional borrowing authority to take effect, saying that would invite a recurrence of the current crisis in the heat of next year's election campaigns.

First word of an effort to reach a compromise came at mid-afternoon from Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker John Boehner _ Obama's principal Republican antagonist in a contentious new era of divided government. Both GOP leaders said they were in touch with the White House and hopeful of a deal.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid heatedly denied their claims of progress on the Senate floor a short while later, but several hours later said events had changed.

"There are many elements to be finalized...there is still a distance to go," he said in dramatic late-night remarks. "I'm glad to see this move toward cooperation and compromise," he added.

He said he was optimistic any agreement would not include a short-term extension of the nation's debt limit _ a point on which Obama has insisted.

Officials familiar with the discussions said that while the first-step increase in borrowing authority and cuts in spending would happen at once, the next step would be somewhat more complicated.

The additional increase in borrowing authority, about $1.4 trillion, would be linked to creation of a special committee of lawmakers charged with recommending deficit cuts of a slightly larger size. If the panel failed to act, or its proposals were rejected in Congress, automatic spending cuts would take effect to slice spending by slightly more than $1.4 trillion, possibly affecting Medicare and the Pentagon.

The terms under discussion appeared to satisfy key demands made by both sides. Obama would prevail on insisting that after the legislation is passed, Congress would not be required to vote for debt limit increases to take place. Republicans would win spending cuts slightly larger than any debt limit increase and avoid any higher taxes.

Reid said that at the request of White House officials, he was postponing a test vote set for shortly after midnight on his own legislation to raise the debt limit while cutting spending. Republicans opposed his bill, and said in advance they had the votes to block its advance.


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WHAT IFs

If there is no resolution by the said date, we could see some selling in commodities, and a flight to gold and silver. Is it going to catastrophic? Not really, in my view. Tell me something that the rest of the world does not know.

If there was a credible alternative to the USD as the reserve currency, then we may see a sharp sell down in USD and a move towards something else, but the next alternative is the very dubious and weak Euro. The thing is, if there was panic, most will move back to US Treasuries, so we are back to square one.

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There is a 90% chance that there will be a resolution, even though the statements coming out from the Senate, the House and Obama indicate otherwise. You cannot have any of them issuing a positive statement because its all part of the negotiation tactic. To be positive means you will be hammered to give away more. To be guarded and anxious might force other sides to push this through. Obama has been unusually determined NOT to allow the deal through unless its a proper one-off resolution. The very strong stance taken by him is important to make sure the spending cuts will come from tax increases largely, which is part of his mainstay policy. Rightly or wrongly, he has taken this opportunity to push through his desired policy changes, even at the possibility of "temporary default".

This, who blinks first game, is a scary one. It takes guts and conviction.

So now, the ratings agencies are playing the role as the agitator? When did they suddenly become so high and mighty? Did they forget that they were the ones who brough the global economy to where its at now? Realistically, some smaller ratings agencies have already downgraded US debt to AA. Inside our minds, the US debt is already AA if not single A. What the ratings agencies are twitching about is not a big deal.

Will markets be affected? If there is no resolution, markets will correct a bit, there is nothing new but a sympathy correction is in store. If there is a resolution, there will be a relief rally. The reality is, the Euro crisis seems to be a long drawn out thing and will hobble EU for a long time. Spain seems to be the next Greece along with Portugal. If you did all those things for Greece, you have to do the same for Spain and Portugal as well. That will put the entire Europe in strait jackets for a long time.

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Having a resolution in the US will mean the US will have to live on a budget finally. Attention will fall onto the majority of the states in the US which are in more precarious situation than the federal government deficit. The belt tightening will get worse in the US, recovery will be muted at best. One can almost forget about the domestic economy's robustness to get them out of the already prevailing slowdown.

Are things really bad for everyone else? No. What we shall see in the coming weeks is a reweighting to emerging markets currencies and assets. The swiftest way for Europe and US to get themselves out of the funk is to effectively "devalue" their currencies bit by bit.

The thing which is saving the markets is the fact that the many quantitative easings will still be around swishing in the global system. The other fact is that corporate side is still making money, generally. Corporations in the US and Europe can count their lucky stars that a substantial portion of their earnings now come from emerging markets.

No one would want to wish for the US to go through what they are now going through, but thankfully they are. They cannot be allowed to print money as they wish, consume more than they produce at the expense of everyone else.

China and Japan only hold a small percentage of US Treasuries, no one in the emerging markets will be held ransom to their predicament. The resolution will mean a proper way to adjust their borrowings and spending - and that is what everybody wants. Its meant to happen, it has to happen, just be thankful we have Obama to push this through because a Republican led government will dilly dally even more on this.


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Friday, July 29, 2011

Flamengo 5 - Santos 4, What A Match!

Is this a genuine posting or just an excuse to feature Zhou Weitong again? Who cares? The match was brilliant. You can see the new blue yeyed boy of football Neymar doing his stuff scoring two goals for Santos. But you can spot the devious trick by Neymar when he comes in from the flank into the box - he will suddenly jibe into the box to trigger a foul to earn penalties. If you look at the run path of Neymar and the defenders in slow-mo, you can clearly see that its a good trick.



Ronaldhino showed that he is not over the whole hill yet. His free kick which gave Flamego the 4th goal was intelligent and well executed. ... and hey, Zhou Weitong also plays football in the mud!!!

http://www.flixya.com/files-photo/j/o/h/john1111394972.jpg

RIO DE JANEIRO, July 28 — Ronaldinho scored a hat-trick as Flamengo overcame a three-goal deficit to beat South American champions Santos 5-4 away in an extraordinary Brazilian championship match.

The former Barcelona and AC Milan forward, leading scorer in the championship with eight goals, netted the equaliser and an 82nd minute winner as Flamengo fought back after Santos had raced to a 3-0 lead in 26 minutes.

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Borges scored two goals for the hosts before Brazil’s teenage forward Neymar weaved his way past four markers to add a brilliant third in Wednesday’s match.

Flamengo pulled one back when Ronaldinho opened his account, taking advantage of a slip by Santos goalkeeper Rafael to score from close range, then Thiago Neves notched another for the visitors.

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Brazil midfielder Elano missed a penalty for Santos before Deivid headed Flamengo’s equaliser from a corner, all before the end of the first half.

The drama continued after the break as Neymar put Santos back in front, before Ronaldinho took command, equalising with a free kick which went under the wall, then scoring the winner with an angled shot.

Flamengo are third on 24 points from 12 games, four behind leaders Corinthians. — Reuters

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Thursday, July 28, 2011

How Cool Is This!!!

How about an African-American teenager singing Chinese opera? Just the idea seems ludricous. I just have to post this amazing find. Taken from Sydney Morning Herald. You MUST click and watch the video till the end. His voice is good, pronounciation near perfect, just wonderful to watch.

... oh, btw, I received too many emails on Zhou Weitong from overeager readers, not since Haruna Yabuki have I gotten such a strong positive reaction on the pics, so here's more of Zhou Weitong.

http://media.smh.com.au/life-and-style/essentials/unlikely-chinese-opera-star-2521276.html

LinkSMH: Tyler Thompson is an unlikely star in the world of Chinese opera.

The teenager from Oakland, California has captivated audiences in the US and China with his ability to sing pitch-perfect Mandarin and perform the ancient Chinese art form.

"As soon as he opens his mouth and sings in Chinese, the Chinese are very surprised and then feel very proud of him," said his music teacher Sherlyn Chew. "When he puts on the costume, and all the acting, you can see that he's pretty good."

Standout student ... Tyler Thompson.

Standout student ... Tyler Thompson. Photo: AP

Tyler, 15, is a standout student in Chew's Oakland-based Purple Silk Music Education program, which teaches children and youth - mostly from low-income immigrant families — how to sing and play traditional Chinese music. The program's Great Wall Youth Orchestra & Chorus has performed around the country.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/opera/teens-unusual-talent--singing-chinese-opera-20110728-1i15g.html#ixzz1TMu5Auex


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Tyler has learned to sing several well-known pieces of Chinese opera, a centuries-old form of musical theatre known for its elaborate costumes, clanging gongs and cymbals, wide-ranging vocals and highly stylized movements.

At the World Children's Festival in Washington in June, Tyler, dressed in a black robe emblazoned with golden dragons, got a standing ovation when he performed as Justice Bao, a famous Song Dynasty judge who fought government corruption, from the Chinese classic Bao Qing Tian.


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"The music is very beautiful, and it's very passionate. You can hear it when it's being played," said Tyler, a theatre student at the Oakland School for the Arts. "It's made me want to know more about the world outside of America or California or Oakland."

David Lei, chairman of the Chinese Performing Arts Foundation in San Francisco, has seen Tyler perform several times and arranged to have him sing at the opening of a Chinese opera exhibit several years ago.

"It's very authentic because he hits the tones just right, so you understand everything," Lei said. "People just don't expect an Afro-American kid to be doing it. It's the initial shock. There's a sense of novelty."

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Tyler, who comes from a music-loving family, began learning how to sing in Chinese a decade ago when he was a pupil in Chew's music class at Oakland's Lincoln Elementary School, where about 90 per cent of students are Asian.

Chew quickly recognised Tyler's talent and recruited him to join her Purple Silk music program, where students learn to sing Chinese songs and play traditional instruments such as a two-string violin called an erhu, a four-stringed lute known as a pipa and a bamboo flute called a dizi.

"I really took a liking to him and thought he had quite a large range," said Chew, who started the music program at Oakland's Laney College in 1995. "He hears pitch very well, and his pronunciation of Chinese characters is very accurate."



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Tyler's mother, Vanessa Ladson, said her son's education at a predominantly Asian elementary school and participation in the Chinese music program have made him more open-minded.

"He's grown a lot," she said. "He's learning a different culture, and the Asian children are learning his culture, so it's a plus-plus for everybody."

Tyler said friends and classmates sometimes poke fun at him, wondering where a black kid from Oakland learned how to sing Chinese opera.

"Sometimes they don't understand it," Tyler said. "It's just joking about the fact that as dark as I am, I'm singing Chinese. What's up with that? If I go to China, I'm going to stick out like a sore thumb. It's just those types of jokes. All in good fun."

Since his first solo at age six, Tyler has performed at San Francisco's Davies Symphony Hall and Herbst Theatre, on television shows such as Good Morning America and at the US State Department, where he sang for then-Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi.

Tyler became a sensation in China several years ago after Chinese Central Television broadcast his performance at a Lunar New Year show in San Jose.

Tyler, who has learned to speak some basic Chinese, was scheduled to make his debut performance in China in July, but he and his mother ran into trouble getting visas in time, Chew said.

In recent years, Tyler has begun studying theatre and acting more seriously, but he plans to keep performing traditional Chinese music, which has opened up a world of opportunities to him.

"I've been sticking to this to see where else it will take me," he said.

AP




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Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Super-Investor's Latest Picks

Mr. Koon Yew Yin has kindly sent an article for me to share with you readers. Cannot get in mainstream media or research houses, you know. Money cannot buy. I have been saving for a good posting to feature Cherie Chung, her recent photos, she's 51 you know, still beautiful as ever and effervescent.
My one and only criterion for buying shares

Koon Yew Yin, 20th July 2011

As you know, there are many investment books written about the methods used by Gurus, like Warren Buffet, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch and many others. After reading and mastering all the basic fundamentals on share selections, I thought I could make money from the stock market. It is not so easy. After learning from my own mistakes, now I have one and only one criterion for stock selection, that is to buy only shares that have profit growth prospect.


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I will never buy any share if I am not sure that it will make more profit in the next few quarters and also better profit this year than last year. Of course you should only buy the shares with P/E ratio below the average P/E of the sector and when the increased profit is announced you the shares you have bought will look cheap.

If you look at the first quarter results of plantation stocks, you will notice that almost all of them have made more profit than the corresponding quarter of last year. Moreover, you can see that the average selling price of CPO was around Rm 2,600 per ton and average CPO price has been above Rm 3,000 for this year. You can also see in the Star daily that the CPO price for the next few months is above Rm 3,100 per ton. Basing on these information you can safely assume that almost all plantation companies will make more profit this year than last year.


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Now you can be almost sure that you will make money if you buy planation shares. Of course, the best buy would be those with low P/E ratio which you can see in the Star or NSTP daily.

I am obliged to tell you that plantation stocks form a significant portion of my investment portfolio. I am not asking you to buy plantation shares. But if you decide to buy, you are buying at your own risk and I am not responsible of your profit or loss.

Good luck! LUCK is when preparation meets opportunity.





NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.


Trading Error Or Manipulation On DRB?

Well, almost everyone on the streets are talking about the DRB last minute drop. Many shouting that it is manipulation, while the paper has come out to say its a trading error. So, what is the verdict?

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Written by Chong Jin Hun / The Edge
Tuesday, 26 July 2011 11:54

KUALA LUMPUR: DRB-Hicom Bhd shares fell 14% or 33 sen to close at RM1.95 yesterday, making the counter the biggest loser on the local bourse in what was believed to be a trade error by a bank-backed brokerage.

Sources said the substantial decline in the stock’s price within 10 minutes prior to the close of trading happened when transaction instructions for three million DRB-Hicom shares by an institutional investor were keyed in wrongly by the brokerage. “It is believed that institutional investors had wanted to buy the shares (at the lower price of RM1.95). But the transaction was keyed in as a sell order instead,” the source told The Edge Financial Daily yesterday.

The error, which occurred at about 4.50pm, had seen the three million shares transacted at RM1.95 until the closing bell. Prior to this at 4.48pm, the stock had changed hands at RM2.28, unchanged for the day.

The shares rose to an intra-day high of RM2.30 before closing at RM1.95. Year to date, the stock is only up 0.52% this year.

The diversified conglomerate, which has a market capitalisation of RM3.77 billion, has interests in automotive manufacturing and distribution, property development and construction, among others. DRB-Hicom made news early this month when it acquired a controlling 32.21% stake in Pos Malaysia Bhd from Khazanah Nasional Bhd for RM622.8 million or RM3.60 a share. The transaction made it the single largest shareholder of Pos Malaysia.

DRB-Hicom group managing director Datuk Seri Mohd Khamil Jamil had said in a statement then that both DRB-Hicom and Pos Malaysia complemented each other strategically.

According to Khamil, DRB-Hicom will help grow Pos Malaysia’s courier, retail and logistics operations. At the same time, the acquirer will also be able to leverage on its associate’s distribution channel.
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If a broker wanted to close it at RM1.95 so that some call warrant will expire worthless, they would have had to do it for 5 days. You may be able to carry that out if the trading volume was not so liquid. Then we have to assume that it was the same broker making the trade (or trading error), but we do not have final confirmation yet. We still do not know which house made that trading error.

Say, they really wanted it to close RM2.00 or below everyday from RM2.30 level. After day 1, investors would wise up and queue all the way from RM1.95 to RM2.05 in case the "player" starts to sell big at the end of the day again.

Mind you, they probably got RM15m from the issuance of the call warrant and maybe another RM5m from trading the paper. They needed to take out 3m to hit RM1.95, and promptly the next day the share went back to RM2.24. So, assuming a 20 sen average loss on 3m = RM600,000. However, if they did attempt to do it again, I bet you they would have to take out a much heftier volume as vultures will queue to buy, so day 2 may see them having to take out 8m and the amount will rise again for subsequent days.

Even so, some may say, they may need to spend only RM7m-8m in total to keep it closing below RM2.00 for 5 days. That would wipe out a lot of their issuance gains. If you calculate properly and let the call warrant expire around RM2.30, the "loss" is minimal. Having said that, most investors would be totally misguided to think that OSK just issues the call warrants and has a one-way bet. Seriously, THEY DON'T CARE whether it closes in the money or out of the money as they are properly hedged all the time (I hope, otherwise they are just a cowboy outfit).

All brokers should be smart enough I hope, you'd think they would not know that they'd be flouting the law or tempting fate if they did this for 5 days straight? You think they would risk being heavily fined, censured or even suspended from issuing call warrants in the future, .... or maybe we sometimes give brokers more credit for their intelligence than they deserve, maybe they were just really stupid?!

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One note of advice to SC/Bursa, make all warrants, call or otherwise, final settlement price not to be determined by the last 5 days closing prices but the average weighted price over 5 days - the scope for manipulation would be greatly reduced.

I will swing towards it being an intent to manipulate because WHO IN THEIR RIGHT MIND WOULD PUT A 3m BUY ORDER or SELL ORDER ON DRB HICOM given the current normal daily trading volume of the stock WITH 15 MINUTES OF TRADING LEFT???? Maybe because the egg has now been splattered over everyone that the intent has to stop. If there was no outcry, maybe we will see even more of these "trading errors".

However, having said all that, since the affected call warrant is subjected to the "error" in closing at RM1.95, that means 20% of the settlement price is also diminished substantially if it was originally closer to RM2.30. If the said broker admitted it to be an error, then that broker MUST COMPENSATE all the affected call warrants by the "missing quantum" in the calculation.

IF the broker issuing the call warrant IS THE SAME HOUSE where the actual trading error was also done - then its understandable why so many may be up in arms over possible collusion or intent to deceive. Till now, we don't have actual confirmation of which house made the error.

So, you have a call warrant expiring for one house, and somehow the first day of calculation of settlement price for the call warrant, you have a trading error by some house, the size of the trading error was enormous relative to normal, considering with just 15 minutes to end of trading ... what are the plausible explanations... yes, you could have a litany of legal minds arguing tons of possibilities ... but remember Occan's Razor,
"the simplest explanation is most likely the correct one."

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

The Ultimate Guide To Ipoh Ngah Choi Kai

I cringe every time someone said that they had the best ngah choi kai in Ipoh at Lou Wong. Ask anyone from Ipoh and nine out of ten would never eat at Lou Wong. I guess if you are out station folks, you may need more guidance in locating the real deal.

We Ipoh folks take the dish seriously. After all, you buy any tofu or bean sprouts from Ipoh markets, they are already very good. How not to have good hor fun when you live in Ipoh?

So, what makes the dish stand out from being average to being brilliant. Well, at least they must have the best hor fun and bean sprouts to start with, not difficult. Then its the soup base, here is where quality comes in, how much "stuff you put in and how long you boil it for". We always can taste some "MSG" at Lou Wong although they will always deny it.

Then its the chicken, it is not whether they look golden yellow (that is a cheap trick of bringing out a nice colour). The test is how smooth and easy they detach from the bone. Test: can you pop a chicken wing into your mouth and easily spit out the entire bone, seriously.

The final test is the soy sauce/cooked oil mixture, it has to be just right, not too salty and has that special something (which I think is fried chicken fat).

The locations of the 5 outlets are on the linked map, thanks to a reader:

http://www.savershub.com/my/en/business.php?input1=Ipoh+Bean+Sprouts+Chicken&input3=Ipoh&lang=en

There are 5 places you would know (or should know):

LOU WONG
Soup base: 7/10
Chicken: 8/10
Soya/oil Mix: 7/10


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ONN KEE
Soup base: 7/10
Chicken: 7/10
Soya/oil Mix: 7/10

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_mKRw925tsME/SHpHEb0XJPI/AAAAAAAAADA/4O_fqEpPdlE/s400/799px-Ipoh_OnnKeeTaugeAyam_Front_1.jpg


MEDAN KIDD (15 Tower)
Soup base: 8/10
Chicken: 9/10
Soya/oil Mix: 7/10




KAM HOR (Ipoh Garden)
Soup base: 8/10
Chicken: 8/10
Soya/oil Mix: 8/10



COWAN STREET (#44 Cowan Street, random opening hours, priciest)
Soup base: 9/10
Chicken: 10/10
Soya/oil Mix: 10/10


There you have it, the ultimate guide. If you look at the scoring, you would know why we cringe when you say Lou Wong is sooo good.



Restaurant <span class=

p/s: photos stolen from various food bloggers, who always want to lynch me ...

http://ipohtown.blogspot.com/2008/07/food-glorious-food_14.html

http://www.j2kfm.com/fifteen-tower-tauge-ayam-ipoh/

http://www.j2kfm.com/kam-hor-ipoh-ayam-tauge/

Monday, July 25, 2011

Great Dinner, Invaluable Tips

I am proud to be able to call Mr. Koon Yew Yin (the famed super investor) a friend after many emails and a couple of lunches and dinners. Was back at Ipoh over the weekend and thought I call him for dinner, and within half an hour he called back to say he has another 11 people coming for dinner. That was a shocker but gotta roll with it. Then he casually mentioned that I probably have to speak a little prior to the dinner.


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No Such Thing As A Free Dinner (LOL)

I know there is no such thing as a free dinner but it seems I have to be speaking for my dinner as well. My mind was still blank as I drove up to his house. My topic for the short speech was still "up in the air" as I was introduced to the guests. Then it was my turn to speak.

I don't even remember what I said but it lasted 15 minutes or so, I think. Finally some questions, and the discussion got its own life. There were some nice insights about investments:

Macro and Economic Developments

Mr. Koon and I both believe reading about macro and economic developments is largely a waste of time, generally. Yes, there are merits in know how macro factors develop, but Mr. Koon insisted that all he needed to know about share investing is that the company makes more money the next quarter than the following quarter, then he will keep holding the stock.

To a large extent, most macro stuff is noise. You invest in companies, if you are not a trader, all you have to make sure is the company makes money.

Of course he will also have some parameters prior to stock selection, mostly standard stuff from Ben Graham and Buffett. Actually all the stuff is out there, why are not more people making money from their investments?

Loss Aversion

Some of the stuff I shared is in the "momentum fundamental investing" which my readers would be well aware. I brought up the fact that I receive many emails (mostly from housewives, you draw your own conclusion) from readers who want advice on their portfolio, what to sell what to keep. Its the same type of list, each totalling at least 15-20 stocks of mostly crap. Many a times I will highlight 3-5 stocks worth holding from their list, but I am not sure they will ever learn to cut.

This brought me to comment on loss aversion and gains euphoria mentality. We need to know ourselves very well. Yes, when we make a good trade, we are happy. But when we make a loss, that is in most people's minds, a very drastic proposition. If we can count in terms of a happy/sad quotient, making a profitable trade may rank 5/10 but in many cases making a loss is -9/10. The main reason being, loss aversion, it makes us enormously sad and depressed to be making losses. Somehow in our minds, paper loss is not losses??!!


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Averaging Down

Somehow that led me to talk on averaging down. We need to seriously view how we regard averaging down. If you buy a stock and it drops, do you average down when its off 5% or 10% or 20%? First we need to recognise that when we average down, we are saying our initial purchase WAS A MISTAKE, we bought too high, the timing was off or there were other indirect factors... whatever they were, we were wrong.

Two, to average down means placing more bets on a stock you entered wrongly in the first place. That is the crux, if we have 5 stocks on average in our portfolio of RM100,000. To average on one means the exposure on that stock rises substantially relative to the rest. Thirdly, we assume all stocks gravitate to the mean, i.e. its off 10%, it will go back to 0% soon - let you know a secret, the market DOES NOT HAVE A CENTER OR A MEAN, its all in your mind.

When you are considering averaging down, I would always consider averaging UP on the performing ones. These are the ones you got right, why now reward good ones instead of placing more bets on weak ones.



Dinner At Tuck Kee

Btw, we had dinner at Tuck Kee, somewhere behind Tow Boo Keong Temple, it was fantastic. The smoke duck was pink but melts in your mouth, its even softer than top grade wagyu, I have never seen that being done at any top 5 star dining establishments. Roast pork was incredible, tofu was like silk even though it was pre fried. Go there for dinner if you can but must book beforehand.

Plus we got to drink a few bottles of the vibrant (and expensive) Bird In Hand shiraz as well.

Not to be confused with Tuck Kee Noodles. This one is at Pasir Pinji.

Metaphorical Battle At Kruger

I was scrolling my archives and came across this posting. To me, its more than a National Geographic piece. It also has a metaphorical and/or allegorical quality. Somebody could have scripted the wildlife drama loosely based on any Asian country (hint..hint). The pride of lions represent the government. The buffalos represent the people (hint, hint, always being herded but when they come together as one - can even surprise themselves). The crocodiles are just the priviledged few trying to take the 5% or 10%. Enjoy!


Thursday, July 21, 2011

Market Shifting Gears Finally

Just when you least expect it to, the market suddenly turned on its head and registered a most vibrant trading day yesterday. Just a one-off? Judging from the trading trend, movements in certain stocks, it looks to have some legs for a run.

http://www.kosmo.com.my/kosmo/pix/2008/0228/Kosmo/Hiburan/hi_01.1.jpg

Supposedly consolidating stocks such as Mah Sing, RA suddenly sprouted wings. Coincidentally, Hap Seng Consolidated has finally set their warrants price, now that the exercise is over, we may see more activity. Same goes for Coastal Contracts as the contra selling for those buying ex-basis is over and the warrants should start trading over the next couple of days.

There was also sufficient activity in "trading stocks" such as ENG and Dialog. Plus fresh meat in Wijaya and Hiap Teck. Activity also seen in AFG and Affin as the banking M&A theme seems to be simmering as well.

All in, looks good for a couple of weeks.

http://www.kosmo.com.my/kosmo/pix/2008/0228/Kosmo/Hiburan/hi_01.3.jpg

NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_lMNEN2kZ4xA/S7hGoZWLOuI/AAAAAAAAAA0/qMRM6oOgr1I/s1600/6494_131572988088_676598088_2313096_2507025_n.jpg

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

The Jazzy Sounds Of Teresa Teng (ONLY 40 TICKETS LEFT!!!)

SOLD OUT!!!

The organisers had their press conference yesterday and was well attended by all 6 Chinese papers. Wickedly, they have included this video as part of their promo. Its an excerpt from my all time fav Chinese movie Comrades, Almost A Love Story (next to An Autumn's Tale). The movie was brilliantly tied together by Teres's songs. Both Leon Lai and Maggie Cheung had a torrid on-off affair back in HK, growing up as new immigrants from China. After many years of unfortunate events, bigger than themselves, both made their way to New York. They were both saddened to hear of Teresa's passing... and the rest you watch yourself...

I guess what the organiser want to share is that Teresa's songs bind everyone everywhere, wherever there are Chinese people, you will hear Teresa's songs. As much as we may pooh-pooh them when we were younger, somehow we grow to like them as we grow older. Here's to a magical evening of tribute.



Among the highlights....

1) After a classic video footage, Roger Wang will come up on stage to play an acoustic solo of a Teresa Teng classic, with the bay window - full drapes opened - in Bentley Music Auditorium in full view of the audience. How do you like looking at the moon and the stars? it is gonna be quite a sight!

2) Winnie Ho going to play a standard medley of Teresa Teng songs, followed by jazzed up versions of the same songs

3) A special guest, a surprise guest, a Jazz Diva, from Taiwan is gonna be our guest... wow, wow, wow

4) Snippets from a famous movie on Teresa Teng will be shown to coincide with two songs .... classic scenes in the movie which promises to trigger off your memory bank

5) The finale - Winnie Ho will go off stage and interact with the audience for a mass karaoke session!



Led by Pianist and musical director Tay Cher Siang, aided by famed Sabahan guitarist Roger Wang, with vocals from the petite-yet-impressive Winnie Ho from 2V1G and her friends, this musical showcase promises a familiar yet refreshing Teresa Teng, one that you seldom get to hear.







Tickets on sale NOW!


  1. 难忘的初恋情人 (nan wang de chu lian qing ren: unforgettable first love)
  2. 忘记他 (wang ji ta: forgetting him)
  3. 我怎能离开你 (wo zhen neng li kai ni: how can I leave you)
  4. 泪的小雨 (lei de xiao yu: raining tears)
  5. 月儿像柠檬 yue er xiang ning meng: the moon shines like lemon
  6. 千言万语 (qian yan wan yu: a thousand words))
  7. 月亮代表我的心 (yue liang dai piao wo de xin: the moon represents my heart
  8. 丝丝小雨 (shi shi xiao yu: rain)
  9. 奈何 (nai he: ambivalence)
  10. Goodbye my love  
  11. 在水一方 (zai sui yi fang)
  12. 甜蜜蜜 (tian mi mi: sweet honey)
  13. 云河 (yun he: river of clouds)
  14. 温情满人间 (wen qing man ren jian: this world is full of love)
  15. 风从哪里来 (feng cong nai li lai: where does the wind come from)
  16. 但愿人长久 (dan yuan ren chang jiu: let’s pray for eternity)
  17. 君心我心 (jun xin wo xin: your heart, my heart)
  18. 一个小心愿 (yi ge xiao xin yuan: a little wish)
  19. 我只在乎你wo zhi zai hu ni: I only care for you)
  20. 世界多美丽 (shi jie dou mei li: the world is beautiful)

Ticketing Info:

Concert Date: 6th August 2011 (Saturday)

Venue: Bentley Music Auditorium, Mutiara Damansara


Price: RM105 & RM85 (See Seating Plan. Only RM105 (blue colored zone) has seating numbers. Seat allocation for RM85 (yellow colored zone) will be done at auditorium entrance based on arrival. )

Ticketing Outlets:

CDRAMA (Popular Bookstore) Ikano Power Centre


CDRAMA, Sunway Pyramid

CDRAMA, Cheras Leisure Mall

Loud+Clear, Solaris Dutamas



Marketocracy Portfolio As At 20th July 2011

Salvador Mutual Fund (SMF) BLUE LINE
left curve price history right curve
[download spreadsheet]
graph of fund vs. market indexes
SMF m100 S&P 500 Nasdaq
Graph Period: [7 Days] [30 Days] [90 Days] [6 Months] [1 Year] [2 Years] [3 Years]
[4 Years] [5 Years] [Since Inception]
left curve recent returns vs. major indexes right curve
Today MTD QTD YTD
SMF 0.59% 0.30% 0.30% -6.90%
S&P 500 1.01% -1.08% -1.08% 4.88%
Nasdaq 1.58% -0.30% -0.30% 4.23%



left curve recent returns right curve
RETURNS
Last Week 0.37%
Last Month 5.37%
Last 3 Months -7.91%
Last 6 Months -9.19%
Last 12 Months 15.31%
Last 2 Years 28.63%
Last 3 Years N/A
Last 5 Years N/A
Since Inception 39.56%
(Annualized) 11.82%
S&P500 RETURNS
Last Week -1.05%
Last Month 2.80%
Last 3 Months -0.06%
Last 6 Months 2.81%
Last 12 Months 25.04%
Last 2 Years 44.49%
Last 3 Years N/A
Last 5 Years N/A
Since Inception 10.97%
(Annualized) 3.55%
RETURNS VS S&P500
Last Week 1.42%
Last Month 2.57%
Last 3 Months -7.85%
Last 6 Months -12.00%
Last 12 Months -9.73%
Last 2 Years -15.86%
Last 3 Years N/A
Last 5 Years N/A
Since Inception 28.59%
(Annualized) 8.27%
left curve alpha/beta vs. S&P500 right curve
Alpha 8.38%
Beta 1.14
R-Squared 0.76
left curve turnover right curve
Last Month 0.00%
Last 3 Months 66.08%
Last 6 Months 81.97%
Last 12 Months 118.82%



[download spreadsheet]
Symbol Price Shares Value Portion of Fund Gains Inception Return
PVSW $7.27 17,219 $125,182.13 8.92% $23,846.47 23.53%
AGQ $217.19 430 $93,391.70 6.66% $15,232.18 19.49% Details
LNKD $102.40 1,200 $122,878.80 8.76% $18,706.57 17.96% Details
POT $60.71 1,500 $91,065.00 6.49% $41,496.18 21.85% Details
C $37.67 2,500 $94,174.75 6.71% $70,627.11 20.22% Details
F $12.93 8,000 $103,440.00 7.37% $110,405.20 41.02% Details
LVS $44.69 1,500 $67,035.00 4.78% $1,920.36 2.95% Details MIDDLE
DNDN $38.96 2,500 $97,400.00 6.94% -$2,164.50 -2.17%
NSR $25.98 2,500 $64,950.00 4.63% -$2,604.43 -3.86%
STZ $20.79 3,500 $72,765.00 5.19% -$5,720.66 -7.29%
WU $19.19 3,500 $67,165.00 4.79% -$6,005.21 -8.21%
AKAM $29.18 3,500 $102,130.00 7.28% -$17,899.09 -14.91%
AFL $44.47 1,500 $66,705.00 4.75% -$15,422.55 -18.48% Details
SNBC $3.13 25,000 $78,250.00 5.58% -$21,690.40 -21.70% Details
IL $17.31 6,000 $103,860.00 7.40% -$37,597.80 -26.58% Details
KBH $9.37 6,000 $56,220.00 4.01% -$9,535.73 -5.34% Details


TRANSACTIONS July 19, 2011
left curve all closed tickets right curve
[download spreadsheet]
Close Date Type Symbol Shares Net Avg. Price Net
Jun 3, 2011 Buy AGQ 410 $181.7769 $74,528.52 Details
Jun 3, 2011 Buy AGQ 20 $181.55 $3,631.00 Details
Jun 3, 2011 Sell ARO 4,000 $17.9445 $71,777.99 Details
May 27, 2011 Buy LNKD 1,200 $86.8102 $104,172.23 Details
May 27, 2011 Sell SVU 6,000 $10.0883 $60,529.81 Details
May 12, 2011 Buy IL 4,000 $20.7228 $82,891.38 Details
May 12, 2011 Buy AKAM 3,500 $34.294 $120,029.09 Details
May 9, 2011 Sell ATHX 20 $2.7995 $55.99 Details
May 9, 2011 Buy IL 2,000 $29.2832 $58,566.42 Details
May 9, 2011 Buy DNDN 500 $39.887 $19,943.48 Details
May 9, 2011 Buy ATHX 20 $2.9 $58.00 Details
May 9, 2011 Buy DNDN 2,000 $39.8105 $79,621.02 Details
May 9, 2011 Buy POT 1,500 $54.3301 $81,495.12 Details
May 9, 2011 Buy LVS 1,500 $43.4098 $65,114.64 Details
May 9, 2011 Buy GR 0 $0 $0.00 Details
May 9, 2011 Buy SVU 6,000 $10.6365 $63,818.74 Details
May 9, 2011 Buy STZ 3,500 $22.4245 $78,485.66 Details
May 9, 2011 Buy ARO 4,000 $20.6374 $82,549.74 Details
May 9, 2011 Buy WU 3,500 $20.9058 $73,170.21 Details