Monday, June 20, 2011

There Is (Really) Wind And Water In My Stocks

I decided to feature this again, because obviously fundamentals analysis and/or technicals charting do not always bring the desired results. Every year we look forward to the CLSA fengshui chart prediction just for a chuckle. But seriously, the masters they employ seem to be getting better and better. I suspect in the early days they hired a few masters to help them come up with the report. Over the years they probably got a better idea of who among those masters were better than the rest.

Seriously, ask any market expert, analyst or strategist in January what their market prediction would be for 2011, I think 99.9999% will never draw the chart as shown above for February and March 2011. I think fengshui is basically 10% OK and 90% crap. I mean seriously, it was meant for divining burial sites ... somehow people get carried away using it to divine for everything else.

However, when it presents tangible results, you could show me a kid throwing dice but has an 80% accuracy using the dice to predict stock market movements, hey, I will listen. Just look at the chart above, they got February and March spot on, these are usually very bullish months.

The KLCI chart starts from January, the CLSA fungshui chart starts from February, look at February, spot on. March was flat just like the wind-water chart. There was supposed to some improvement in April according to the wind-water chart, and wallah, so it came to be. May was flat, correct again. June was supposed to dip down again, well, the reality was more flattish trading but I wouldn't say they were wrong cause the conditions weren't good for the markets in June. June and feb are supposed to see the year lows, hence we all should be buying NOW!!!

But were they just lucky? OK, let's look at the prediction in the Water Pig year of 2010 above, the blue line representing the Hang Seng index. Any economic statistician will be able to conclude that there is a at least an 80%-90% correlation between the two lines. Save for the last 2 months of 2010 - must be the Justin Beiber effect throwing the wind and water factors into chaos.

Let's throw out our thinking caps, CFAs and degrees for the moment and assume the 2011 prediction is probably correct. Here are the pointers:

a) March 2011 and June 2011 will be the LOWEST point for the markets for the whole of 2011, yea ... although there will be a dip in second half of June back to the same level but everything else is roses.

b) Stay fully invested and trade from now till early June. The first couple of weeks of June, try and sell everything. Hmmm ... could that have something to do with our Malaysian elections???

c) Buy like nobody's business in the last week of June, sell everything in the week leading up to Merdeka Day, go for a 4 week round the world holiday in September. Buy like nobody's business in the last few days of September.

d) Trade like crazy till November, sell everything in the last week of November. Use part of gains to buy lots of Christmas presents and prepare for a festive CNY. Buy like crazy after Christmas.

If only .... but still I will be watching the chart and markets closely. Damn if I am going to be beaten by wind and water in my stocks again.


Roy said...

LOL...I'm going to bookmark this blog entry....I got beaten too in February and March. Slowly recovering now....LOL

Pauline Yong said...

Interesting analysis there! I read the Feng shui beginning of the yr but I didn't take it too seriously.

clearwater said...

You can soar with the wind and you can sail on the water. You can also get blown away by wind or drown in water. In the end, it's all about your investing skills and discipline, and how you navigate in good or bad weather that makes the difference.

Bone said...

Amway's chart looks interesting.. do you think is overprice or sustainable..?

Kenneth said...

i think we deserve an explanation... why is this dude not arrested?

K C said...

If you get the drawings of the general trend of the stock market for the last 6 months from 10 fengshui fellows, it is probable that you can get one of them quite similar with the trend of the market. What if you get 100, or 1000 of fengshui fellows? I am sure you will find many of them have predicted the market well, 6 months ago. Alas, if you choose one of the best predictors from the above, what is the chance that this guy will give you an accurate predictions for the next 6 months?

Mike Forex Cable said...

as far as forex trading is concern TA works seamlessly.....

3pmsupertrading said...

MAA hah? fair value 1.50 ah??

Mr Stock Guru. eat shit la.


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