Well, as expected, price of oil broke US$120 thus my proposed double down short would be activated at US$119.90. Should sit pretty all the way down to US$105-110.At the time of writing this, the price has reached US$119.30.
26 July 2008 - If I shorted at US139, I'd be pretty happy to ride along as I am waiting for US120 to be broken, which to me, will be a very huge sell signal to most chartists. At US119.90 I would be doubling up my short position. Why don't I double up now at US123 you might ask. Well, things are still fluid, it could hang around the present levels for another few weeks, which to me would be base building - if it does that, and does not break US120 by mid-August, then I should take profit on my short position as I would interpret that as the bulls still having the upper hand.
Hence I am looking forward eagerly to US120 being broken because it will fall pretty quickly to US105-110, the level which I think there will be better long term support.
26 July 2008
8 June 2008
p/s photos: Som Kanokkorn Jaichuen