Tuesday, March 27, 2007


Old Friends

Some of you may remember Tebrau as one of my significant picks last year. Went from 38 sen to 72 sen linke within 2 weeks, man, even I felt like a demi-god then! Ever since IDR gathered a head of steam over the last few weeks, Tebrau has nipped past UEM World in terms of percentage gains, and for the first time in many moons, it has topped the volume charts today. As mentioned in the Nusajaya Dreamin' post before, the Kota Selat vehicle will comprise of land injections from Danga Bay, Tebrau and Khazanah, with Khazanah taking the lead and biggest share.

The land we are talking about is the super prime in the Tebrau corridor. Tebrau's book value is only at RM13.40 psf. Even if you mark it to RM30 psf, which is about lower side of market value (although you do find transactions that are much higher priced), you are still getting RM1.70 per share as RNAV. Tebrau stands a better chance than most of realising the conversion value of its land into cash as its only 1,011 acres and very prime, plus it will be the first vehicle to get things off the ground. It would not surprise me if a very big Singapore or HK company were to collect Tebrau in a big way; its a very decent way to play the IDR prior to actually signing up jvs to develop IDR.

Of course, if UEM World can hit RM10, then Tebrau can reach RM4.00 on similar line of fundamentals and valuations - we are still not talking airy-fairy stuff, just gross development value and revaluation aspect of their landbanks. The fact that things are hotting up for Tebrau should also bode well for Ekovest and UEM World, can expect a big announcement in coming days or weeks.

3 comments:

doraiddd said...

i like your self portrait in the pic. How many among us can actually have a mous that can cast shadows?

ccdev said...

man, how come you say "plus it will be the first vehicle to get things off the ground"? thanks in advance.

Salvatore_Dali said...

pls read nusajaya dreaming, the spv kota selat is the first MAJOR vehicle to buy all the super prime land from Khazanah, Tebrau and Danga Bay and the area will be the nucleus from which the Nusajaya project will spread out. While there are other property projects such as Horizon Hills and othe rprojects even further away by SP Setia, Crescendo, IOI Prop... it is NOT Nusajaya. Hence Kota Selat will be the prime mover because of its size, location and major partner (Khazanah). Tebrau by injecting its 1,000 acre will almost have nothing left in the company, hence it will be the first to develop, take advantage, covert land to recurring earnings tha others like UEM World who will have to develop 10-20 years to finish their tracts of land, hence realisable value.