Thursday, March 01, 2007


George Orwell Revisited

We Are All Equal, But Some Are More Equal Than The Rest


sopskysalat said...
I just did a mental calculation. SIT, KLSE all done a 10% from top. HSI, DOW, N225 only did a 5% so far.

Depending on the markets, they will over-react more or less than others based on a number of factors. Let me point out a few:


1) High ratio of retail players. Weak holders generally. Self- explanatory. Not just China and Malaysia but just have a study on Indian markets for the past 12 months, the daily volatility there is quite horrendous.

2) Recent daily average volume compared to long term daily average volume. Or put in another way, the amount of fresh liquidity injected into the markets.

3) The nature and characteristics of fresh liquidity - speculative, opportunistic, short/long term, ... ??

4) Stretch ratio. The extent of gains over the most recent days or weeks. The higher the stretch ratio, the more vulnerable will be the markets as it also implies more people sitting on loads of gains, more prone to profit take. Malaysia was the BEST performing market so far in 2007 ytd (The Shanghai and Shenzen markets fell just as much because of the silly rumours, to them that was a localised event)

3 comments:

doraiddd said...

hi dali,

warren's looking for people. Wanna put your cv thru?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070301/
earns_berkshire_hathaway.html?.v=12
(that would mean spending time in omaha which is a cold, cold place, without char kuey tiao, nasi lemak or prata...)

Coulndt you find an image of pigs with cash and calculators for your Orwellian thoughts?

but its good for the blog with a bit of color. Reminds me of the Economist. It softens the edgy seriousness of the subject matter. (Jeez.. i'm starting to sound like simon cowell as much as you're startting to sound like yusli...)

Betcha you spend as much time searching for the rite image to go with the subject matter as you do writing it. The rubber-gloved surgeon look like christian from nip/tuck abt to remodel and rip me a new methane outlet for damaging the ozone layer...

Anyway, despite all the number rationalising we do with a market thats slamming down, greed and fear , above all, takes center stage.

How else can you explain me being able to sell some small town biscuit maker for 200+ ringgit and buy maybank at 2.90?

oh, and you forgot to mention some midas and their PRC-govt approval for gigantic slot machine casinos in some cold god-forsaken far-flung corner of the PRC from 93/94.

Iskandar sounds, to me anyway, to be riding on the adage of "build it and they'll come..." (i'll give you 10 bucks if you can tell me which movie that line came from)

is this so different to a city on top a river? Maybe this time they've got andrew and robert but old horse with his MSC had bill and larry too..

Dutch tulips? anybody?

There's so much thats been written and said abt the ginormity of the possible unwinding of the yen carry trade in the last one week stroked by a yen rally... again, despite the rationalising, I believe in first mover advantage... unwind before the stampede really starts.. and it will start, not because of the sudden narrowing of the differentials, but cos lemmings will do what lemmings have to do...

and here in malaisesia, we have multi-cultural lemmings.

lets see if all the recent glowing overweight anal-ysts recs to buy listed brokers (ahem, investment banks... Not!) due to the 4bil+ daily volume will standby their recs when they tally up their contra loss provisions...

Otoh, jennting looks blardy attractive, even at 35, cos its at a historical 16x..

blah, lemmings...

have a ggood weekend.

Salvatore_Dali said...

doraidd,

u asked the wrong guy cos I used the headline in my 97 report on the MSC, "If You Buil It, They Will Come" .... from that wonderful baseball movie... i see dead people.

oh the answer FIELD OF DREAMS

doraiddd said...

dali,

it was 10 bucks i wanted to lose. Coz it turned out I asked precisely the right guy. Otherwise i woulndt have mentioned old horse's MSC...

We both see dead people...