Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Conversations About Landmarks
Between Myself & Doraidd

Doraidd: hi dali, this is from landmarks ann. to bursa:2.2. Pricing of the Placement Shares - The issue price for the Placement Shares will be at a discount of not more than 10% from the five (5) day volume-weighted average market price of Landmarks Share prior to the date on which the issue price of the Proposed Placement will be determined by the Directors of Landmarks. as i understand it, the issue date is not determined yet and it's determined by the directors and will only be determined after all approvals have been obtained. so wouldnt a lower share price, especially if its a hit-down price, actually benefit NS? lower financial outlay to take up the placements? ie. Incumbents'll set issue date after 5 days of low pricing? (assume all approvals obtained) and if the hit-down is done by the four-seasons, wouldnt that play into north's hands? i'm on hols so my mind may not be up to speed. correct me if i'm wrong.
8:15 PM

doraiddd said...
sorry, when i say issue date, i mean issue price. My blurness - even Issue is starting to not look like an english word at all.
8:20 PM

Salvatore_Dali said...
yes, lower price would benefit NS, but I think if you want to see real upside, you want Syed's camp to control Landmarks. NS lacks the firepower, and while their unlocking of value strategy is ok, I do not like their Bintan island project injection. For Syed's camp, there are numerous things that can take place, the ne Four Seasons in Kl or Concorde can be injected or packaged with the 30% stake in Shangril for a very nice REIT.
10:44 AM

doraiddd said...
...it's been a while since my last hostile.. i'm becoming more of a peace-loving hippie in my old age... BUT if syed and his other 3-seasons want control, then maintain price as high as possible (while still accumulating) and then spike it closer to announcement of issue price (not allowed to be more than 10% lower) then only hit the price down below the placement price after ann, continue to suppress it, then only make GO at a higher than market price (which of cors is still suppressed) make sense? and btw when the southern bank money coming back? i agree - bintan angle suxs big time, and have you seen the size and scale of the unlicensed gambling dens there? who even needs licenses?
11:49 AM

Salvatore_Dali said...
lets look at it his options: 1) call a G.O. now at RM1.75 or RM1.80 - danger as he does not have a controlling stake, the entry price for NS is supposedly btw 1.80-1.90, so they won't sell to him at G.O. level. Neither would the minority holder as they will be holding out for me in anticipation of a catfight. It would also allow the successful placement of the new shares at RM1.54. Plus, Syed will end up having to buy from the mkt at prices higher than 1.80 or 1.90 as chances are very slim that minority will sell to anyone at G.O. level unless its above 2.00.

2) No G.O. yet, need to create problems for the special placement as it is obvious the shares won't be going to NS but to friendly parties. The closer the mkt px is to the placement px, less chance of being a success. NS is treading on hot stones here as they rely on friendly parties to control the company. There are no friendly parties that last a lifetime, just as long as the present value of future cashflows is positive, you are my friend. You can always get a better friend if the present value of future cash flows is a bigger positive figure than your previous friend. I mean, election candidates change parties all the time, especially after the results are known .... unbelievable.Hence I expected the price to drift towards the placement px, but the silly speculative article in NST on a potential G.O. killed a few people today. If there is any G.O., it would be much better to do that after the special placement. Looking at the free float and trading patterns, it is much better to collect from open market than G.O. as there are obviously a lot of willing sellers in an open mart.
2:08 PM


zentrader said...

The placement needs the approval of SC ...

1) can this change the rule of the game? or
2) can it be blocked by court order?


Salvatore_Dali said...

It is very difficult to stop the placement, although it can be blocked by a court order, the grounds for doing so must be valid. Most companies allow the board/mgmt to issue new shares or do special placements up to 10% of existing paiud up via a prior resolution, and it hard to defeat that.

zentrader said...

I think there will be a serious dog fight. Both camps have to buy as many shares as they can in the open market to gain major control.

doraiddd said...

hi dali,

me shy-lar to have our conversations put up in main page of your blog. I'm really not worthy...

looks like its entering a new accumulation phase at a higher price. Notice the lack of sellers? I believe most weak holders have already been flushed out but show the current retail another 10 sen and you'll have some shares back.

you're right abt the friendly parties and their present values re placement - zakaria has already been seen in the offices of a certain local property tycoon trying to line him up.

To me, its really not the shang holdings, datai/andaman, sg wang etc. thats valuable in landmarks.

Its the BOOKS and the NUMBERS inside that goes back all the way to Sam's days and shorty's use of it, masked under peremba, that's really, really and truly PRICELESS.

Given that, shorty's still sticking to his principal of 'using everybody else's money but his own', for the time being - hence the lack of financial muscle.

If however, push-comes-to-shove and if he is really needed to flex his little pinky, then the 4-seasons better get ready for el nino.

perhaps CMY is already humming "What have YOU done for me lately?"