Wednesday, July 05, 2006

Update On Tebrau Teguh

Well, I wish I was that influential, the share price shot up from 38 sen to the present 53 sen in just a couple of days. The gratifying thing is that the rise was controlled, steady and any profit taking was swiftly bought back up. The positives:

a) broke past its 52 week high of 46 sen convincingly, technically next technical barrier is around the 72 sen barrier
b) the volume for past 2 days were 50 million and 84 million. Today's volume should close at around 60 million. These are very decent volume and the closing price was near the day's high and always in the plus. The implications are that if there was one or two big players behind this, they are still collecting.
c) All and sundry are allowed to take their 15%-25% profits and run, and the buyers are very strong. There appears to be a few very deep pockets from Singapore collecting tons of Tebrau for keeps. Well, its better than buying Johor property for the Johor Play or the Malaysian Plan right?!~! d) considering the volume, just the last 3 days would have seen at least 60-80 million being collected from the free float for keep. The paid up is nearly 700 but the Johor state body can never sell down its 42% stake in the market, so the actual free float is getting less er by the day. At my estimate, only less than 200 million shares are floating now - should volume keep at 50 million a day and assuming 70% are contra players - natural forces will work to mop up the free float. The story and fundamentals are convincing enough for enough buyers to buy and hold to only sell at much higher levels (e.g. RM1.00), this will continue to restrict free float and dry up supply, making the uptrend easier.
e) Again, this might be the likely market leader for the 9th Malaysia Plan Johor Play (which is supposed to take up over RM12 billion of the 9MP).

While I am not advocating buying or selling but just on facts and technicals, Tebrau has some legs in this run. The fundamentals are supporting its run also. The 9MP is helping matters and the story is easy to convince anyone and everyone. Good luck!


gsg said...

Hi dali,

wish i hv visit yr site sooner, or hv read the article in the edge as mentioned in one of the comments, then i may hv added my position and not sold it at 56+cts yesterday.... bot it after i read a uob report, but not so sure if the facts are really convincing, hence sold it yesterday after seeing it run for a week....

hopefully got a chance to find it back

thanks for sharing

gsg said...

hi dali, any chance u been following cement prices in malaysia, is it still firm and is likely to continue to stay firm?