Thursday, June 22, 2006

The Invincibility Of IRIS

Despite being the butt of my sacarstic remarks and dark humour, Iris continued on its merry ways today after being released from being designated. Somehow for Iris, its more like being released from prison. Iris is like the woman your mother warned you about. Like smoking, drinking and womanising ... despite the warnings, many will succumb to the lures. Fast women, fast cars, fast money ...

Looking at their fundamentals, it is not exactly unattractive, at least there are some fundamentals - unlike Aokam or Fountain View. As for NTA, at least it is around RM0.20 (even though stock has shot up to RM1.15 today). As for 2006 PER valuation, though it might be close to 90x, it does not take much to halve it as the profits are miniscule to start with. If I am forced to look at the positives:
1) EBIT margin are steady at 14%
2) Potential for the company's electronic identity cards and e-passports contracts from markets such as Turkey, Somalia and Indonesia

Looking at the total paid up of 914 million shares, just the morning session today saw 75 million shares traded with buying support at every level totalling over 30 million should anyone really wants to throw shares at them. Looks like a cornered vehicle. Though it sounds absurd, but the bloody share looks to have a lot more upside now that its no longer designated. Plus the fact that the company have been scrutinised like hell, and the company's senior management giving in depth interviews in between ... this drama is far from over ... Buy if you must, but of course the risks are equally as high. Beware of the man with monkeys! (Read blog On "The Parable Of Vonage & Iris")

3 comments:

doraiddd said...

the monkey man in this case has at least 250 mil monkeys. I have yet to see a successful distribution of a cornered animal species in recent history. Of bigger concern is the veritable ZOO that this monkey man has accumulated. Watch out for the hyenas, anacondas, tarantulas etc that came out of hibernation since monday.

Salvatore_Dali said...

assuming the monkey man has cornered 250m shares or one quarter of total paid up ... that is not being cornered. a counter that is cornered need agreeable groupings that has mopped up at least 80% , thus leaving 20% or less in free float. Even 20% free float will be 190 m shares. For a successfully cornered share, there are instances of good distribution, did you check the experience of Aokam .... the monkey man basically placed out everything and went off to Shanghai and rarely came back... holders include all sorts of funds, mainly small foreign funds... But in this case, Iris is not a total dog, and there is a few monkey men here, not just one, plus I believe this case, we have a couple of foreign babboons...

doraiddd said...

the top 22 monkey men hold 80% on a base of 4332, compared to a year ago where there were 9211. I believe this % will increase as the price is moved higher as monkeys used to cost 1.30 upwards until recently. The agreeable groupings you’re looking for congregate on pg 87 of its 05 annual report - amusingly, a certain chicken man is also here. Do you seriously believe say jim when he says he has no knowledge of foreign baboons climbing his tree? Anyways its either a case of baboon islanders acquring malaysian pr status or our local monkey man finally getting an international passport - I tend to believe the latter.

when i say recent history, i mean post 97/98. The intention for aokam was never to distribute in the open market - otherwise there would be no need for the wow! wow! office in kk nor its super duper factory and the personalised tours. These small foreign fund tourists would certainly have done better if they had toured specific warehouses in the States instead. They make the best villagers and i do mean the BEST thus my continued salutes to ah seng but unfortunetly the same modus operandi did not work for gplus no matter the piece of shanghai he owns is as big as far as my eye can see.