Pandemic Effects on Countries & Macro Trade Ideas

 Global biggest economies saw some significant changes following the Covid-19 pandemic.  Nominal GDP values denominated in a common currency are a way of measuring and comparing economic sizes of different countries, and provide a glimpse of how developments — such as the pandemic — affect economies differently.

India which was 5th in 2019 has slipped to 6th, and judging by the calamitous situation there, is likely to drop further in 2021.

The pandemic which has hit South American nation in a much bigger way has resulted in Brazil slipping markedly. Brazil was 9th in 2019 and has slipped to 12th in 2020. Again another candidate that is likely to slip further down in 2021 although maybe not as precarious as India. IMF has projected that Brazil is likely to stay out of the top 10 till 2026 at least. Brazil has recorded the 3rd highest caseload and 2nd in terms of number of deaths. This spells a pending bleak situation going forward for India.

South Korea, thanks to its vigilant measures and high testing rates, has reaped the economic benefits and moved into top 10 in 2020.

However its interesting to look at trade impact as well. The world’s most affected economies due to coronavirus are the European Union, the US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam, according to UNCTAD’s preliminary estimates of trade impact, in that order. That is because on a per capita basis, the amount of trade impact would be higher for smaller population with a high trade coefficient. This highlights USA's even deeper predicament.

April 28 (Reuters) - U.S. bank Goldman Sachs expects commodities to rally another 13.5% over the next six months on a worldwide reversal of coronavirus curbs, lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, its commodities research team said on Wednesday.

MACRO TRADE IDEAS: The sustained rallies in iron ore, copper and alumina may very well spill into the 3Q at least. As to whether it is sustainable, the jury is still out. However we have seen significant rallies in local stocks linked to those categories. Freight rate have jumped as well. Just look at the renewed interest in the few local players. 

Even oil & gas stocks should be in for a good run. But I prefer the above categories.

I think as a short term trade play, stocks linked to these will be useful to follow. That's because while liquidity is still good in the markets, they have also been running low on ideas.

p/s She is Lin Min Chen from Malaysia. Making her rounds in HK and Taiwan. I think she will succeed big time very soon.

Snippets: Iron Ore Prices, Dissecting MTouche

IRON ORE: The price of iron ore, Australia’s biggest export, has surged to an all-time high as aggressive, infrastructure-focused stimulus programs in China fuel booming demand for the key steel-making raw material. Iron ore’s stunning rally over the past year – which has delivered mega-profits to mining giants BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue and helped support Australia’s finances through the COVID-19 crisis – hit a record high of $US193.85 a tonne on Tuesday. The milestone price, which topples the previous record of $US193 a tonne set in 2011, comes as demand from Chinese steel mills rose in the lead-up to a Labour Day public holiday. Analysts on Wednesday suggested the price may continue to soar even higher and soon cross $US200 a tonne.

We have seen the price of aluminium rising in tandem as well. Last 2 weeks saw a rerating in some local aluminium stocks. Just heads up.

DISSECTING MTOUCHE:  MTouche went for a 10 into 1 consolidation. The exercise went ex on 20 April. The few weeks prior to going ex, shares were trading between 2-3 sen. Upon going ex it was a disappointing few days as the new share price only went to 15 sen-21 sen (meaning its the same as before going ex 1.5 sen to 2 sen). The last two days have seen interest being registered in the share price and volume. 

I have to STRESS that this is not a buy/sell opinion. Just have a look at the facts. At 35 sen today, its collective number of shares stands at 132 million shares. Giving it a beautiful market cap of just RM47m. 

Thie initial price weakness probably has to do with the upcoming 6 for 1 rights at 10 sen, which comes with 3 for 1 free warrants. That means if you hold 100,000 shares, you have to pay RM60,000 to get the 600,000 new shares, giving you a total of 700,000 shares plus you will get 300,000 free warrants. Getting investors to pony up funds is never easy. Looking at the market cap now, it is dirt cheap as to get control of a listed counter, you are already looking to pay a RM20-40m premium. As everyone has to put in the new 10 for every shares- this will mean shares will be back by cash of 10 sen anyway. Factoring in the free warrants, it is likely that there is meat on the table.

Again not a call to buy or sell. Do your own research before acting.

p/s: She is Malaysian actress Sangeeta Khrishnasamy. She did a small role in Kollywood movie after making an appearance in Venkat Prabhu's hit Goa and as the female lead in ZHA among famous South Indian film actors.^[2] In 2015 was the female lead for two hit Malaysian Tamil movies Vetti Pasanga & Vennira Iravugal. Vennira Iravugal became an acclaimed Malaysian Tamil movie after it was screened in several film festivals around Europe and winning a special jury award at the Norway Tamil Film Festival in 2014, subsequently taking home all 5 awards in all categories at the Malaysian Kalai Ulagam Awards in 2015. 

AirAsia - Survive or Perish

 

It is already so rare for any local company to make its mark regionally and AirAsia has more than done that. Its a pity that the Government has chosen to fold their arms when AA comes asking for help. The amount of time lifelines have been thrown to  Airlines ... do you wish to count ... the wau, the rebranding, the 4th floor or is it 5th floor I forgot .. credentialed CEOs, foreign and local. 

Occam's Razor  conclusion - Why can't we revive MAS to profitability. There have been multiple efforts and strategies deployed, and have been given more lifelines than a pussy (cat, I meant). OR's wisdom would be that it is not salvageable.

Easily the most palatable thing will be to merger AirAsiaX with MAS. But egos get in the way, valuation gets in the way, unions get in the way. When did we get to behave like the Japanese? Consensus decision making?

Let it be known that every single Asian nation helped their airline massively... you may argue AA is not a national airline but so shallow. What is "nationally owned"? You only help when government institutions owned some of it? Seriously, how many Malaysians AA employs, how much tourism it brings to the country by making regional travel more affordable and efficient. The multiplier effects would be many x what MAS has done over the years (besides draining our resources). Someone can go tabulate how much funds has been given to MAS for the past 20 years - its enough to build another international airport.

But I am not here to bash MAS - just giving a preface to the situation AA is facing. Can they survive. Its an opinion piece, not a buy or sell.

Firstly, I think whether you like Tony Fernandes or not, you cannot and should not deny the fact that he is a brilliant entrepreneur.

To survive the next 2 years, which is critical, will see good upside or a close shop scenario. It is that dire. 

NAPS is only 15 sen. Even following the private placements and rights issue, by end of the year NAPS will be just 30 sen. But you only talk of NAPS when the company has a high chance of NOT being a going concern. Thus the break up value is needed as a benchmark guide for investors to assess their risk.

Looking at the sober projections by UOB KH, the year ending 2022 December would be the X-Factor. When will regional travels be back to normal? Not all Asian countries (including Australia and NZ) are vaccinating at the same rate. You can take out India. The travel bubble between HK-SG will only start end of May. Initial travel bubbles between SG-Australia may be starting June/July. All in, to get to even 50% normality, we are looking at October 2021 the earliest. It is imperative that we achieve 70-80% normality for airline travel by November-December 2021. Failing that, the 2022F figures below are very hard to attain.

Herein lies the catch. If they are unable to attain that figure - say the make zero profits for 2022F. The castle will crumble because they will then have to raise another xxxx (maybe circa RM500m) to push through 2022-2023.

However, if the figures hold up, meaning air travel gets back to normality by end of 2021, a net profit of RM1bn will be looking pretty good. On the back of 6bn shares, EPS will be 16.6 sen. If they can achieve that in 2022, it will be normal services have resumed. That being the case I think a 15x PER would not be outrageous. 15 x 16.6 = RM2.49. This compares favourably to the current price of 89 sen.

What that means is going forward, any kind of related news on air travel, vaccination rates, vaccine passports, air travel bubble, reinfection rates around the region, etc... will be of utmost importance. If you are long the stock now, be prepared for A LOT OF VOLATILITY.

Will people travel when its green lighted? Oh yes they will. The pent up demand for air travel is so big that I see the initial 3 months to be so vibrant that high prices can be charged by all airlines.

As for the share options scheme and long service incentive scheme, its not dilutive but a necessary tool to make company goals achievable.It is better to be upfront and transparent on incentives for staffers (which AA did), plus AA is in no position to offer cash bonuses for the next 2-3 years. Hence it is the more decent alternative.

Again back at the chalkboard. Merge AAX with MAS. Let them take the longer foreign routes. This section of business is going to be so much more difficult for the next few years. You don't need more than 1 player.

By doing so, you reserve all regional routes for AA, instead of both trying to cannibalise each other to grow out of the miserable situation.

p/s: Yes, its Son Yejin. There are some people who might not be so attractive in photos. Yejin is one of them. Go watch her act, talk and behave... you will fall easily in love with her. Easily the most adorable actress from SK.

Asset Class Returns - Nuances

 

The chart below shows several issues investors struggle with all the time. It’s difficult to pick the best performing investment year after year, yet for many investors, it’s an annual event. They look for an encore, picking the best asset class last year with the hope of a repeat performance. Yet, betting on last year’s winner rarely works out.

Assets at the top of the chart one year could be at the bottom the next, and vice versa. Much of this is due to reversion to the mean. But over the long-term, those big swings even out. The key is to appreciate that asset classes goes through "cycles" and your funds could be caught in dead water if you are invested in the wrong asset classes for a few years.  

The chart shows annual returns for eight asset classes against a diversified portfolio. Diversification works to smooth out those big swings in the short-term. While you’ll never get the biggest gains of any year, you avoid the huge losses. The flip side to me is that FULL DIVERSIFICATION is a coward's way of investing. There are enough information and trends to read for investors to be weighted into the "correct asset classes" year in year out. Efforts should be made to rebalance your portfolio to obtain supernormal returns, and as shown from the chart, it is highly doable.

The table below ranks the best to worst investment returns by asset class over the past 10 years. 

- REITs had a fantastic run from 2011 till 2015. Mainly sifting from the ashes of the 2008 subprime mess. Any massive correction from a bubble presents opportunity, and they can lasts a few years, not just a knee-jerk upswing.

- From 2013 till even the present day, the markets have been characterised by loads of liquidity being poured into the markets via record low rates. The situation was further expanded owing to the pandemic rescue packages for the last 18 months. Low interest rates with liquidity is a magnet to large caps, and they have performed admirably since 2013.

- Emerging markets never seems to have a good run of more than 2 years. The third usually is a down year. This may be characterised as global funds flow bias. Global funds may plough their exposure but won't stay longer than two years. Once the main guys exit, it will be a down year. That's probably due to the fact that most emerging markets stocks are not in their benchmark or must have strategy. Two years up one year down, when its cheap enough, they get back in.

- Surprisingly small caps have not really done much better when compared to large caps. I see this anomaly was due to the deluge of liquidity at the top. Small caps were more of an indirect beneficiary from the liquidity deluge, but big funds cannot find enough size among small caps to soak it up well, which probably caused more big funds to stick with big caps.

- Caught up in the data but not obvious must be the speedy evolution of what constitutes as large caps. Over the past few years, they are less oil & gas, big steel but more tech related. Hence we need to adjust our parameters when we are talking about large caps.

p/s: Anggika Bosterli was born in 1995, at the age of 21 (now 26) she is already having a strong foothold in the Indonesian film industry. She is one of the most desired women in Indonesia as she is a regional beauty with a little icing from a foreign country.

She became noticed for her exceptional beauty through her debut role in soap opera Fly with You. She has also Acted in FTV videos like Do Not Take My Husband and So Blue Pupils. Her recent film that was released this year is Aach…. Aku Jatuh Cinta.

Back To My Roots - Blogging Like Before

 

There aren't many blogs that lasts more than a few years. People get bored or they have run out of things to say. I am here to say I will START to return to my original fervour of blogging. Like rediscovering your passion. So, readers can look forward to at least a new posting every single day. 

This blog was started back in 2007, most marriages or businesses don't lasts that long. You can't force it, the passion has to be rediscovered again and again. But with new guidelines - you have to do a lot of self censorship according to the times. No need for further elaboration.

Plus, the icing on the cake, my female photo selections will also make a comeback.

Berjaya Group CEO - There's a new CEO in town and many of my friends have made comments. Generally, they have been good that finally someone is putting some skin in the game. However a few of my respected financial friends made these comments: "How did he get to have so much money in the first place?"... "Did Vincent Tan finance his stock purchases?" (is that legally/morally wrong?).

We have become so cynical that we tend to take the glass half empty route every time we come across "seemingly good things". We question, we doubt, we make disparaging comments ... based on NOTHING other than our biases or skewed value system. 

Maybe its the environment we were brought up in, and/or the political shenanigans and the puppet masters behind so many of our institutions and power plays ... maybe.

I think I'd like to give the guy some leeway. I mean he was doing good stuff at PNB... till the good things affected the tollways of some powerful people I think, so they say. 

So the next time we come across something 'seemingly positive", let's give it a chance. There is no need to whack everything, even when 9 out of 10 times its usually "sinister". Life would be better this way, the more negativity we pour onto ourselves just kills our souls faster.

p/s: after haven't posted pics for so long, the first one will have a lot of weight .. she is Shirley Cheung Yuk San, a one time TVB starlet. I think for about 6-7 years before leaving abruptly to start her body slimming biz. She got that listed in HK's GEM in 4 years. She's 47 now and still looks great (and single... her "influential bf died a few years back). She is tenacious, intelligent and quite brilliant in so many ways.

The Brilliance Of Investment Bankers

Is this a cheap shot? Not really. Is it fait to pick and choose one "mistake" to shame all bankers? Well, yes. I tell you why. The "mistake" was not a rare instance. Their wins and losses are about the same, give or take that they were maybe 65% right all the time. But the instance they were wrong will cost you big time.

That's because investment bankers are in the business of SELLING. They need you to move your funds. To sway you to move to something, they will have to dissuade you from the prevailing choices. Even though they may not know much of other options, in the business of selling they will tell you don't go there vehemently.

They do not have your best interest at heart, but their quotas and bottom line for the year. You are not going to hear "I don't know much about other options you mentioned, let me check it out".

WE NEED TO STOP WESTERN BULLYING ....

 I am not even a fan of gloves, or Top Glove for that matter. But to call it being an irresponsible employer was way out of line. This is not the first time western forces have tried to bully and discredit our products.  Shall we start with PALM OIL... in any way you cut it it is a superior cooking oil (in terms of crispiness, higher heat tolerance, and reusable quality compared to other oils).

 How they trash us, cooking up images of pitiful oranguants being displaced, etc.. we have plenty of orang-utans and a couple of great "sanctuaries", but nobody will listen. Cause you can buy media... any media for very cheap actually, cheaper than getting a prostitute or gigolo actually. I know it hurts. 

Its our government that has to take the LEAD ... say "FUCK YOU"... cause everyone will think we have no balls. Maybe we don/t...

US CBP finds Top Glove products manufactured using convict, forced, indentured labour

TheEdge Mon, Mar 29, 2021 04:36pm - 5 hours ago

KUALA LUMPUR (March 29): The US Customs and Border Protection (US CBP) has found that certain products by Top Glove Corp Bhd have been manufactured with the use of convict, forced or indentured labour.

In a notice published today, the US regulator said certain disposable gloves had been “mined, produced or manufactured in Malaysia by Top Glove Corp Bhd with the use of convict, forced or indentured labour, and are being, or are likely to be, imported into the US”.

It cited Section 307 of the Tariff Act 1930, which states that products produced using these kinds of labour shall not be entitled entry at any US ports.

Previously on July 15, 2020, the US CBP issued a withhold release order on disposable gloves indicated to be manufactured by forced labour in Malaysia by Top Glove.

“Through its investigation, the CBP has determined that there is sufficient information to support a finding that Top Glove is manufacturing disposable gloves with forced labour, and that such merchandise is likely being imported into the US,” it said.

Based on this, the regulator said the port director may seize the covered merchandise for violation of the Tariff Act, and commence forfeiture proceedings, unless the importer establishes by satisfactory evidence that the merchandise was not produced in any part with the use of prohibited labour.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/808575

Earlier this month, Top Glove said an independent consultant found no systemic forced labour within the group as of January.

The glove maker had appointed the consultant to verify corrective action plans it implemented to eliminate the presence of forced labour indicators from its practices, the group said previously.

Top Glove also said it was following up closely with the CBP and working towards an expeditious resolution and revocation of the withhold release order imposed by the US agency in July last year on Top Glove's subsidiaries Top Glove Sdn Bhd and TG Medical Sdn Bhd following the allegations of forced labour.

Top glove had fallen eight sen or 1.55% to RM5.07 at the time of writing today, giving it a market capitalisation of RM41.61 billion.

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2021/03/677911/top-glove-named-hr-asias-best-company-work

KUALA LUMPUR: Top Glove Corporation Bhd was named one of HR Asia Best Companies to Work for in Asia 2020 (Malaysia), marking the fifth consecutive year the company has won this award.

As the world's largest manufacturer of gloves that serves 2,000 customers in 195 countries, Top Glove pride its 21,000 strong workforce across about 50 factories and offices.

Managing director Datuk Lee Kim Meow said the company is honoured to be winning this award for the fifth consecutive year.

"It is a validation of our efforts in the area of human capital, and an affirmation of our position as an employer of choice to our 21,000 strong workforce," he said.

The GameStop Effect - Bad or Good

This is an opinion piece which assumes that you already know the basics of what's been happening in the US markets - in particular, where hedge funds which specialise i shorting stocks have had their hands burned beyond belief by the herd effect of groups of retail players.

Let's get the jargon right .. GameStop is a silly stock that a few months back was less than USD20 and now can be over USD300, Reddit is a thread (byline, headline, topic being connected with comments and passed on) ... Robinhood is an app that appeals to retail players.

The SEC has had tons of complaints. Is this manipulation, fraud or something else. The SEC has not said much because it is very difficult to prosecute - first, whom to prosecute and then secondly, how to catch the right perpetrators. But even before that, the SEC has to verify that what has happened was illegal under the law.

What is a syndicate, it is not something sinister until they plan to do something together (collude) to "falsify markets by manipulating orders", "make pretensions about the attractiveness or otherwise of a stock" ... I do not think the first one is in question here as the buying and selling have been genuine.

Can you regulate chatrooms, group chats in Telegram, Facebook market sharing groups. When do they become illegal, when is it acceptable sharing of stocks' information. We will all LIKE or DISLIKE certain trends or counters or even rubbish certain charting style - is that illegal? Of course not. Freedom of speech. 

When you hear rumours from your friends or colleagues, you act upon it, is your friend LIABLE - of course not, ... you did not pay for any services, and your friend did not make himself/herself out to be a licensed investment advisor. Even if he/she was licensed, you have to be considered a "client" or paying for his/her services as an expert ... only then can you sue for his/her misinformation/appalling misjudgment/major errors/intention to deceive ... and even then he/she has to have PROFITED from making those claims.

Stock markets are a MAN-MADE thing. It is not a science where there are absolutes. You draw a new line and call it a rule. Of course even new rules CANNOT go against prevailing "higher laws" confirmed and protected by the constitution.

A bourse could ban short selling and that would make it illegal. Same if they legalise short selling. So short selling can and is regulated. What has happened is DISRUPTION ... and when there is disruption in any economic business model or transactional business model, THERE WILL BE UPHEAVALS but in the end its the DISRUPTORS who will see the bulk of their "new ways" being accepted.

An example as a disruptor: Electric Vehicle (lithium battery life); online commerce; payment via smart phones ... you can resist the changes but they will win out eventually.

Am I to say that the "Robinhood members" are RIGHT? No. ... I can understand parts of it might appeal tremendously to normal investors. For the first time in a fucking long time, the small potato has the POWER - consumers in general have been 'raped', 'trapped', 'deceived', 'marginalised', 'stomped on', 'ridiculed', ... (fill in your own) ... by the big boys. Retail rarely get "better pricing", "access to research and analysts", etc... Retail money has always been referred to as "stupid money"... while institutions and insiders' moves as "smart money". OK, who is smart NOW!!!

So on the one hand you can appreciate the "rise of people's power", "the mobilisation of the masses effect" .. on the other we can also see that it can and will lead to certain MARKET DISTORTIONS.

Market mis-valuations happen ALL THE TIME, EVERY DAY even. Thats why you buy or you sell. The market is a machinery that ALLOWS everyone of DIFFERING VIEWS to put their stake into whichever company they want. If they don't put money into certain stocks (when you think they should), or when they put a lot of money into certain stocks (which you don't should be the case) - and you DISAGREE... aren't you another Koon???

The regulators here is more concerned over MARKET DISTORTIONS, and is putting investors' protection as a prime consideration. CAN YOU REALLY PROTECT INVESTORS? You can only hope to "provide a somewhat safe, reliable and functioning exchange". You are not paid to make "valuation judgments" on what is perfectly called MARKET PRICES - they are determined by the markets.

Protect Investors??!! Somehow you need to be 18 or 21 before you can drink, you need to pass a driving test before you can drive legally ... but you got money and zilch brains.. welcome to my stockmarket or casino!!! Apa logic ini? When you do not "control at the entrance" as a gatekeeper ... why the need to talk about investor protection when they are swimming with sharks already??!!

"provide a somewhat safe, reliable and functioning exchange" : limit ups, limit downs, circuit breakers .. are all to ensure a proper functioning market that is not susceptible to over zealousness or herd mentality effects. Regulators should approach GameStop/Reddit/Robinhood effects with the same strategy.

Knowing how hard it is to control the GAMESTOP effect or the Robinhood effect, regulators can only warn the chat group leaders, social media leaders to be very careful. When does sharing becomes collusion?

Things have a way of equalising out. Very soon some of those hedge funds which have lost money shorting, will be going with the retail forces. Just switch sides till all things equalise because there's little solid justification for one side or the other.

Have to be careful: you are not receiving benefit or subscriptions or fees for your groupings. If you find yourself in one, be careful. Your opinions have "speech that exhorts or rally cries or a call to action in droves" for specific counters - then you should be careful.

I think SC will throw the book at a few groupings' leaders who accept fees and they themselves are unlicensed. Just to mean business and calm things down in Malaysia.

On a broader picture: the GAMESTOP effect will cause new ways to understand and play the stockmarket. The mobilisation of masses treatise will be a new phenom which regulators everywhere will have to contend with and find ways to accept. Sites that are properly channeled to investors forums and stock information dissemination WILL RISE exponentially in value.

The GameStop effect, the Reddit platform or Robinhood app effect were all evolved from the rise of technology into the stockmarket trading platforms. To me this is the needed EQUALISER to shift the balance of powers back to retail. Look at ALL THE MANAGED FUNDS in the world, pick any study for the past 30 years - more than 90% underperforms the index. The institutions mainly 'raped' the consumer of fees and returns. Power back to the people. Just because you are in a suit may only means you are a better dressed criminal.

Goodbye XX%##X

 Well, I am trying damn hard to write something about Trump without using foul language. How about a nice cartoon. I absolutely detests those buggers who said "well the half of population of USA who voted for Trump were not voting for him, but they were voting against the system, the status quo of things"... To that I say, FUCK YOU, there are plenty of other ways to do that, you do not bring an imbecile to such an important position just to say "fuck you to the rest of the world".  ... goodbye XX##%&xx...

DILBERT@malaysia ...

This was done by yours truly back in 2010 when the Dilbert website still allowed visitors to do their own mashups of Dilbert comics. Sigh... nearly 10 years already, many things have changed, in particular the reference to Leeds United lol.

 

Tommy le Baker: When Passion, Tenacity, Integrity & Quality Triumphs

Cannot believe its been 10 years for Tommy le Baker. I still remember the hard slogging days when all he had was a hole in the wall (literally). But what stood out was his passion for bread making, his tenacious approach to doing it right and his way. Even when those early days was tough, barely making ends meet .. he soldiered on. He had his small but growing group of supporters and friends, but small nonetheless. You have to swallow your tears when he said in an interview that he knew many of them were patrons just to support his venture. Last thing we want is pity but they are also laced with genuine empathy.

It was always going to be an uphill climb for Tommy. Malaysians are so used to eating "air" and sugar and preservatives ladened bread - they had to be soft and last for a week at least. But that's not real bread. Herein lies his integrity, he does not ever want to "lie" to get better sales for his craft. He could have gone the Lavender or Breadstory way easily and made money and open branches.

As an artiste (musician or baker), your goodwill and followers are slowly accumulated. True talent usually doesn't garner overnight recognition. Jason Axian featured Tommy in 2 magnificent episodes a few years back. It was heart warming yet gut wrenching to trace his journey. Surely Tommy would have had greater success earlier - but it is bread we are talking about, ... not satay, curry laksa or bkt. We are talking of serving a small proportion of the public, and at the same time trying to get the majority to try and realise what real bread tastes like (its vvvg by the way).

So, here I am today at his new place in Kg Attap. A much bigger shophouse. Thankfully he didn't go modern and swanky. Its an old shoplot with no renovation. Please keep it that way. Most of us came for the bread and pastries and sandwiches and coffee. Let's not invite the social media hunters with instagram uploads as their mantra.

Its packed, and be prepared to wait ... wait for tables, wait to order... its worth it. Just as the breads went through proper and long fermentation... we can wait, its not fast food, its slow food done with integrity and superb quality. We can wait ... we should wait... we must have long conversations over coffee. Proper food done slow, we all should slow down and enjoy ... and when you know more of his journey, tenacity and values ... you appreciate the whole thing a lot more.

The handwritten menu.. and everything else tells us a lot about the man and his values: it's me, integrity, passion .. all that you see ... it's me, unvarnished, warts and all, and I am that good.

Now he has a snazzy website that does delivery as well... check it, in particular should MCO be reimposed:

https://tommylebaker.oddle.me/en_MY/

the courtyard...

love the banana muffin

toasted steak sandwich on sourdough

The original posting:

https://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2012/06/peut-etre-le-best-breadmaker-in-country.html

Countries Stock market's Capitalisation As A % Of GDP

 Why is the figure important ... if you can strip out foreign listings and non related listings (inclusive of SPACs) and maybe some REITs that are foreign or regional in nature, you get a good grasp of how much of your economy is listed. 


The higher the figure, the higher the importance of the stockmarket in feeling and shrinking economic activity. IN a super bull, Malaysian domestic economy would flourish as most people will see a lot of funds swishing around, the same when its a bear market when restaurants business dwindles sharply. The higher the figure, the more attention will the central banks and authorities pay to major fluctuations in share markets.

China, though has a lowly figure of GDP that is listed, is climbing rapidly. HK has a figure higher than 1000% because we have to strip out their China stocks listed on HKEX. If only Hongkongers realise how dependent their financial centre reputation (and business transactions) on mainland China.

Singapore has an awful lot of "foreign component REITs, and that's how their government has shaped their future.

Malaysia, is highly interlinked to our GDP... every time we see a business makes RM4-5m a year, we will try to get them listed. Though now that profit figure hurdle is higher (around RM10m a year), we are still very linked. The vibrancy of our economy has a lot to do with the vibrancy of our stock market. 

148.3 %

United States's Market Capitalization accounted for 148.3 % of its Nominal GDP in Dec 2018, compared with a percentage of 164.8 % in the previous year.

Stock market capitalization as percent of GDP, 2019 - Country rankings:

 The average for 2019 based on 58 countries was 83.64 percent.The highest value was in Hong Kong: 1338.48 percent and the lowest value was in Belarus: 0 percent. The indicator is available from 1975 to 2019. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available. 

p/s images of Candy Law Lam, 55 year old actress