Monday, January 27, 2014

There's Wind & Water In My Stocks

The CLSA feng shui chart has garnered a wide following thanks to its uncanny predictions. Just Have a look at last year's chart prediction ... it was pretty close.

CLSA, Asia’s leading independent brokerage and investment group, today launches its 20th annual CLSA Feng Shui Index – a tongue-in-cheek financial forecast for the coming Year of the Wood Horse, with a focus on the Hang Seng Index, key market sectors, world leaders and celebrities, and each of the 12 Chinese zodiac signs. All based on little more than a whisper of wind (feng) and a babble of water (shui).
How do we see the bourse under the influence of the Horse? We conclude that this Pony is un toro in toto - pure bull from teeth to tail. Its fortune chart may not be the best balanced, but it is full of Fire - the intrinsic element that’s widely regarded as the driver of investor sentiment.
This is especially so for the Hang Seng Index, as Fire is also its “lucky element”. We uncovered so many unexpected connections, coincidences and links between the HSI and this Wood Horse that we discern a definite Casablanca connection - ‘the beginning of a beautiful friendship’. And one that should be very rewarding. Our “pure bull” forecast sees the index hit 28,105.
Positive, powerful and race-paced - there’s much to like about the Horse. It’s also well positioned: At No.7 in the zodiac, the Horse kicks off the second half of the 12-year cycle. Traditionally, the vital force or energy known as qi is considered to be spent or stale half-way through a cycle - the Horse heralds the arrival of the so-called second wind - a burst of invigorating fresh qi.
Once again, this year’s CLSA Feng Shui Index features a month-by-month guide to the HSI, the outlook for key sectors, four-sphere forecasts for each zodiac sign, our popular Hong Kong property guide, and fates of some famous faces – the likes of US Fed chair apparent Janet Yellen, Japan’s Shinzo Abe, Alibaba’s Jack Ma Yun and futbol capital Rio de Janeiro.
Our Sector-selector Element Detector suggests we’ll see the best performances from businesses associated with Wood (retail, soft commodities, plantations . . . plantations?) and also Fire (the likes of internet, tech, telecoms, some oil & gas and power suppliers).
Among the zodiac signs, the Horse favours TigersSheep (Goats) and Dogs. Those that may be in for a more challenging ride are RatsCows and Rabbits. But then pluck beats luck every time. Kung hei fat choi! And may the Horse be with you.
Stock market investors are set to ride high in the year of the galloping "wooden horse" as the Hang Seng Index soars to 28,105, brokerage CLSA said in its yearly tongue-in-check forecast for the coming lunar new year.
The HSI closed at 23,082 yesterday. So, according to CLSA's Feng Shui Index 2014 forecast, it will climb more than 5,000 points in a little more than 11 months.

"Horses are brave and honest. They bring energy and drive to the market," said Emily Lam Tim-yi, an institutional saleswoman at CLSA.

The brokerage said the Year of the Horse will be "full of fire" that "could take up the lead and drive up market sentiment in the first half ... with the exception of April when the horse will lack fire."

After peaking in July, a lack of fire will precipitate a dip in the local equity market in August and September and it will stay volatile until the end of the year, said CLSA analyst Mariana Kou Chun-yin.

According to the Feng Shui Index 2014 forecast, sectors related to wood and fire will outperform.

"They include retail, media, soft commodities, internet and tech and oil and gas industries," said Lam. "But stay away from the metal and earth elements including the autos, banking, building and property and resources sectors."

She added: "Gaming and hotel stocks, which have jumped significantly this year, will shed their luster a bit."

Coincidentally, Casino operator Galaxy Entertainment Group (0027) - the best performing blue chip last year - drop

ped 5.5 percent yesterday after a JPMorgan Chase recommended investors trim their exposure to Macau gaming companies.

CLSA also warned investors not to venture too far into property stocks.

"We should be ready for the elbow of evil this year," warned Jackson Hui Lap-yin, research associate of the property team.

CLSA earlier forecast local home prices will drop 10 percent this year and 5 percent next year.

Hui said an "evil shroud" will cover the northwestern part of the New Territories and eastern part of Hong Kong island.

And the outlook for property in Yuen Long and Long Ping is "filled with horror" as more land supplies are expected there.

Quarry Bay, Tai Koo Shing, Siu Sai Wan, Sheung Wan and Kennedy Town - where home prices have surged in the past few years - may see them fall.

And properties in Lung Kwu Tan, Tuen Mun, Pok Fu Lam, Mount Davis and Aberdeen will offer lukewarm return.

But last year's forecasts for the soon-to-be-concluded Year of the Snake have been somewhat off the mark.

CLSA said last year that it expected the HSI to rise to as high as 26,000 points. But the index rose as high as 24,111 points.

But Kou took the discrepancies in her stride, saying the brokerage has been issuing the Feng Shui Index forecasts for more than 20 years and it is inevitable that in some years, they will be slightly off.

The 2014 chart IS SURPRISINGLY POSITIVE considering the many headwinds that experts are predicting for 2014. Naturally we all do wish that the wind and water forces will be greater than the feeble minds of mere mortals.



Russ said...

Hey Dali and all,
Happy Happy Chinese New Year !
Do enjoy Petronas CNY Young hearts

Dali as you pick up the freshest yee sang with chopsticks, literally bringing down blessings of abundance from heaven on a platter to you and your family throughout the new year Amen!

And the tasty delicate love letters will reminisce the private happiest emotions. Take it slow and easy, oi..

Russ said...

Bruno and pals, Happy Chinese New Year !

Bruno, Enjoy watching the video clip above too, over groundnuts ( thumbs up brand haha, pomelos and pineapple tarts. Cheers !

Wish the kind - hearted, wisest professor, a fine master of the craft - my top favorite critical thinking and writing classes will be watching the clip with his family over sweet tangerines ;) real fresh macadamia nuts and kuaci ( a bit bothersome though ).

Ivan said...

Dear Dali,

I would also like to take this opportunity to wish you a very Happy Chinese New Year.

May this new Horse year brings you and family lots of wealth, health and prosperity.


Ivan said...

Dear Dali,

I would also like to take this opportunity to wish you a very Happy Chinese New Year.

May this new Horse year brings you and family lots of wealth, health and prosperity.


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