Tuesday, February 27, 2007


Drop Until Your Mother Also Cannot Recognise!


Well, everyone wanted the correction, but when it came, the severity was under-estimated. That's the problem when you are in a trend, everyone looks at the good stuff and brushes off the bad stuff. Well, all papers applauded the RM4bn turnover last week, nobody bothered with the potential selloff due to the build up in volume. The market would have needed to trade at RM3bn to RM4bn for three out of the next four days to alleviate the unusual overbought position .... but did any papers even highlight that fact, no its the RM4bn and better things to come, how not to die.


I still believe we are only in the second stage of a 4 stage bull run, and yes, it is still a super bull. Those caught on the wrong side, will have to accept their losses and try again, no point complaining. No more "I should have..." "I could have..." .... I absolutely hate people who say those phrases ... it just mean you cannot stand to lose, not willing to take a risk, unwilling to accept losses or mistakes, unwilling to move on, always needing to blame someone or something ... take it in your stride, don't be a petty person. Learn and move on.

7 comments:

The Mumbling Priest said...

Dali, so what actually happened ah? One summary blamed it on strengthening of yen ... affecting the yen carry trades you frequently speak of ... and fears over Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Wah drop so sai lei in Shanghai ... 8.8% ... no joke!

So what's your take, my friend. Will there be many injured bulls that'll slow down the coming of your 3rd stage?

sopskysalat said...

I would think the yen carry trade is not the catalyst to the selling off. Today, I heard from street on many different catalysts such as WAR, CHINA, RECESSION..etc.

The interest differential is still good for the yen carry trade. China selloff is a bit unexplained to me as I can't articulate on why such heavy selloff. It did try to correct sometimes in Jan but the recent bull propelled it back to newer high towards the end of Feb.

CM said...

Dali, been following your post for a while, most of your comments or so called "prediction" only happens after the event happened(ie major correction now)...would suggest you do some prediction or give warning before the event happens. Thanks.

Salvatore_Dali said...

CM,

Please read blog on Feb 8th: ..., we can only write and predict, how to tell you that China will be whacked on rumours of Capital Gains Tax??? I can onl;y tell you that there will be auterity measures which could rock the markets from the overheated China markets, pls be fair.... if I can tell you mkts will fall on rumours, then no need to read my blog, you just give me josssticks everyday cos I'd be god already...

Blog on Feb 8th...


In fact, the risks to all equity markets are largely EXTERNAL rather than within the markets itself. I see EXTERNAL factors being the largest risk poser, for example: a collapse of a small brokerage in China triggering a huge loss in some regional bank; unexpected austerity measures in China's property market (e.g. 50% deposit for purchases) triggering a sharp sector correction and mood change; Republican and Democrat parties elevate their differences and stalling on issues/laws progression; pockets of violence boils over globally requiring international attention; H5N1 outbreaks or new strains of the virus in parts of Asia (again); US dollar collapsing by 5% in a couple of days triggering massive capital flow changes (if that happens, the ringgit could go from 3.5 to 3.1 overnight, and that may trigger a collapse in KLSE as people perceive no more upside for ringgit and would want to lock in gains and leave) ... So, even when you can see no risk, there are still risks.

The Mumbling Priest said...

hahahaha CM asking SD to chor sun thoi ... become sun sin

CM said...

Hi Dali, got your point. With all due respect, if you can type the text below in advance, it will be a very helpful warning sign to us. As you mentioned "everyone look at the good stuff". Just wish to learn from your experience, no offence. Thanks.

Well, everyone wanted the correction, but when it came, the severity was under-estimated. That's the problem when you are in a trend, everyone looks at the good stuff and brushes off the bad stuff. Well, all papers applauded the RM4bn turnover last week, nobody bothered with the potential selloff due to the build up in volume. The market would have needed to trade at RM3bn to RM4bn for three out of the next four days to alleviate the unusual overbought position .... but did any papers even highlight that fact, no its the RM4bn and better things to come, how not to die.

Salvatore_Dali said...

cm,

np, no offence taken ... there must be verbal gymnastics for there to be value in our analysis.

cheers..