Friday, December 04, 2009

Asset Class Returns As At 30 November 2009




Time for the monthly review of the performance of various asset classes. Emerging market stocks have had a fantastic YTD, chalking nearly 70% return, some of that attributable to the USD carry trade, but also due to the immediate stimulus programs enacted by many emerging markets' governments. When you realise that most of these countries did not have as massive a wealth destruction effect as say in the US and much of Europe, one can understand the liquidity awashed in emerging market.

The other important sector which I have highlighted last month was that the commodities have started to move, which is also why the CPO saw some good upwards action last month. I suspect that its not pertaining to the fundamentals of commodities per se but rather some of the switching by USD carry trade into commodities.

If you look at the US equity markets, though many seemed fearful as it climbs towards 11,000 on the Dow, they are just up broadly by 25% on a YTD basis.

Surprisingly, junk bonds are also posting unusually large returns, or what we call high yield bonds. That can be explained by the deluge of funds moving out of cash markets and TIPs seeking higher returns one the risk aversion mentality subsided, causing a sudden ramp up in demand for junk bonds. However, the return last month for junk bonds has been muted as many are more circumspect now that the Dow has breached the 10,000 level.


120109.GIF



p/s photos: Jessica C. (Wacoal's top model)

Now For Some Accounting Humour!

























You cannot really have business and finance humour without hitting on the accountants, so here goes:


Q: When does a person decide to become an accountant?
A: When he realises he does not have the charisma to succeed as an undertaker.

----------------------------

Q: Why do some accountants decide to become actuaries?

A: They find bookkeeping too exciting.


----------------------------


Q. Why do audit firms only have 10 minute coffee breaks?

A. If the breaks were longer, they'd have to retrain all the staff.

-----------------------------

A patient was at her doctor's office after undergoing a complete physical exam. The doctor said, "I have some very grave news for you. You only have six months to live."

The patient asked, "Oh doctor, what should I do?"

The doctor replied, "Marry an accountant."

"Will that make me live longer?" asked the patient.

"No," said the doctor, "but it will SEEM longer."

-----------------------------


A 54-year-old accountant leaves a letter for his wife one evening which read: "Dear Wife, I am 54 years old, and by the time you get this letter I will be at the Grand Hotel with my beautiful and sexy eighteen year old secretary."


When he arrived at the hotel, there was a letter waiting for him that read as follows: "Dear Husband, I too am 54 years old, and by the time you receive this letter I will be at the Savoy Hotel with my eighteen year old toy boy. Because you are an accountant, you will surely appreciate that l8 goes into 54 many more times than 54 goes into 18."


------------------------------


There once was a business owner who was interviewing people for a division manager position. He decided to select the individual that could answer the question "how much is 2+2?"


The engineer
pulled out his slide rule and shuffled it back and forth, and finally announced, "It lies between 3.98 and 4.02".

The mathematician
said, "In two hours I can demonstrate it equals 4 with the following short proof."

The physicist
declared, "It's in the magnitude of 1x101."

The logician
paused for a long while and then said, "This problem is solvable."

The social worker
said, "I don't know the answer, but I a glad that we discussed this important question.

The attorney
stated, "In the case of Svenson vs. the State, 2+2 was declared to be 4."

The trader
asked, "Are you buying or selling?"

The accountant
looked at the business owner, then got out of his chair, went to see if anyone was listening at the door and pulled the drapes. Then he returned to the business owner, leaned across the desk and said in a low voice, "What would you like it to be?"

---------------------------

How accountants do it...

Accountants do it by the book.

Accountants do it within budget.

Accountants do it to the bottom line.

Accountants do it with double entries.
Accountants do it between spreadsheets.
Accountants are Certified to do it in Public.
Accountants do it without losing their balance.


----------------------------

You might be an Accountant if...
    you had no idea that GAP is also a clothing store.

  • during the movie Indecent Proposal you did a NPV calculation in your head.



p/s photos: Suzanne Sae

Thursday, December 03, 2009

Why I Like Kelington





Formed in 2000, Kelington is a leading provider of Ultra High Purity (UHP) gas and chemical delivery solutions in the region. The company provides a comprehensive range of services in the value chain of UHP gas and chemical delivery systems encompasses design, installation, equipment, quality assurance and maintenance. Through a listing in the ACE market, management believes it would be able to raise its profile as one of the leading UHP gas and chemical delivery solutions provider, and thus stand a higher chance of bidding for projects with established players in China and Taiwan. UHP gas and chemical delivery systems are deployed in highly specialised industries such as the flat panel display (FPD) and wafer fabrication sectors and emerging industries such as the solar energy, pharmaceutical, light-emitting diode (LED) and bioscience sectors.

From FY06 to FY08, Kelington had been registering an impressive top and bottom line growth of 40.9% and 54.1% respectively. With its strong orderbook of RM74.98m, revenue is expected to grow organically by 5.4% and 2.7% for FY09 and FY10 respectively. In strengthening its position, Kelington plans to improve its capabilities, expand its UHP gas and delivery systems, develop its overseas markets and continue to undertake various research and development activities.

Its IPO issue price was RM0.53, it has been sluggish since hitting RM0.90 on opening day and has since consolidated around RM0.60.


Commendable standing in the industry: Notable achievements

2000 Secured maiden key project in Malaysia for SilTerra Malaysia's foundary at Kulim.
2003 Implemented first project in Taiwan for HannStar Display (TFT-LCD).
2004 Implemented first major project in PRC for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (Wafer fabrication).
Manufactured first equipment (Valve Manifold Box & Vale Manifold Panel) as OEM for Taiwan.
2005 SkyWalker Group Ltd (linked to The Linde Group) became a major shareholder of the Group.
2007 Implemented first solar cell project for Suntech Power Holdings in China.
2008 Implemented first renewable energy project in Singapore for Renewable Energy Corporation.
Attained Pioneer Status (with retrospective effect from May 2007).
2009 Implemented turnkey Bulk Chemical Delivery System for Seagate Skudai, cementing its ability to undertake large-scale chemical delivery systems.

In Malaysia, Kelington has an 18% market share but less than 2% in China and Taiwan. Having said that, the China and Taiwan business accounted for 61.4% of its revenue in 2008. The fact that China and Taiwan offer tremendous growth potential is prompting management to grow its market share there. As such, the management believes it needs to secure bigger contracts to be seen as a serious player in this niche industry. This also shows that the company planned ahead and sees tremendous potential in China and Taiwan by virtue that 61.4% of its 2008 revenue came from China and Taiwan.

The company’s substantial shareholders are Palace Star (53.19%), Allied Moral (7.88%) and Sky Walker (12.88%). The current directors of Palace Star are Gan Hung Keng (27.0%), Ong Weng Leong (27.0%) and Lim Hock San (46.0%). While Lim Hock San is not directly involved in the management of the Group, Gan Hung Keng is the Chairman while Ong Weng Leong is Group Executive Director. Gan Hung Keng, with over 20 years of experience, is responsible for the Group’s strategic direction. On the other hand, Ong Weng Leong, with 17 years’ experience in the industry, is responsible for the Group’s day-to-day functions in Taiwan and China. As for Allied Moral, its shareholders are individual financial investors who are not involved in the company’s management. Sky Walker, incorporated in British Virgin Islands, is principally involved in overseas investment.

A caveat on dependence. At least 34.4% of the Group’s total revenue in FY08 came from the BOCLH group of companies (“BOCLH Group”). BOLCH is a joint venture between Lien Hwa Industrial Corporation of Taiwan and BOC Group Plc of the United Kingdom. BOLCH is also a related company of Kelington by virtue of their indirect shareholding interest in Kelington through Sky Walker, a substantial shareholder. Nevertheless, the management expects to maintain this close relationship, established since March 2003.

This being the first IPO on ACE, we note that there may be some concerns over the quality of the company as IPOs on the ACE market do not need approval from the SC but will instead be sponsor-driven. IPOs on the ACE market also do not need to meet any minimum profit track record or market capitalization to list. However, in terms of disposal of shares by vendors, the requirements of the ACE market are actually tighter than those of the Mesdaq, with a 100% moratorium on disposal of vendor shares in the first 6 months, as opposed to only a 45% moratorium in the first year for Mesdaq. The fact that Kellington has been profitable over the last 3 years and boasts a cumulative profit track record of RM13.5m and is listing to gain a higher profile among its current and potential clients, should assuage investors’ concerns. In fact, Kelington would have been a much superior candidate when compared to the majority of Mesdaq listings over the past three years. Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad was the adviser, underwriter and placement agent for Kelington's Initial Public Offering (IPO) exercise.

Comparisons with Peers (FY08)
Mkt Cap (RMm) / Revenue (RMm) / Net profit (RMm) /Gross margin (%) / ROE (%) / PER / P/B
Kelington (Malaysia) 39.6 / 60.1 / 6.6 / 20.6 / 30.6 / 6.0 / 1.8
Marketech (Taiwan) 239.9 / 1053.3 / 22.2 / 12.2 / 5.6 / 10.9 / 0.6
Hanyang Engineering (Korea) 259.4 / 603.6 / 16.7 / 6.1 / 8.4 / 16.3 / 1.3
Wholetech System Hitech (Taiwan) 115.5 / 213.4 / 0.3 / 12.6 / 0.5 / 337.1 / 1.7

Kelington compares very well in terms of gross margins, and looks very much undervalued at this point in time. Their year end is end-December, for the 3Q2009, the company made a PBT of RM3.97m, and a net profit of RM3.01m, on revenue of RM19.9m. Cumulatively for the first 9 months of 2009, the company made a net profit RM6.42m on revenue of RM44.6m.

That meant that the net EPS for 3Q2009 was an outstanding 4.63 sen, bringing the total net EPS for the 9 months this year to 9.8 sen. If you add another 4 sen for the final quarter, that would bring the net EPS for 2009 to 13.8 sen, compare that to its current share price of around RM60 sen. Highly ridiculous.


p/s photos: Nozomi Sasaki

My Views On Rubber Gloves




Many people have been asking my views on the rubber glove makers. They have all been on a torrid run for most of 2009. I did not spot the sector early enough, hence I did not highlight that sector as an entry position for the past few months. You cannot be spotting everything. Just because you did not get that sector does not mean one should deride that sector - kudos to those who went in early, ride the trend as best you can.

You look at every single report, the potential upside catalysts are always good results and improving earnings driven by ongoing capacity expansion. Not that I am bitching here, one should also learn to scan for time to take some chips off the table - name me one research report that is a "sell" or a "downgrade" on rubber glove makers ... none, there have been none for the past 11 months. So basically, everybody have been asking everybody to buy, everybody have been basically long or longer ... so who have been selling?

The sector is having a strong run, no doubt. But guess who is selling? Well, the people who anticipated this kind of run more than 12 months ago, and company owners and insiders as they have the most shares to sell. I am not suggesting that owners are selling the shares as a scammish thing, its just the natural thing to do - yes, it is acceptable to like your own stock and tout it to the papers and still sell some shares.

Why I think its time to take some chips off the table: the storyline is getting repetitive (capacity, earnings growth, product mix, and a genuine concern on potentially global pandemic diseases). There is like no "bad factor" at all, how can things be so rosy for so long? Well, they can't. I do think the catalysts are there, but I also think that the catalysts are getting very old.

Its like so many good stuff and optimism have been priced in, there is little room for bad news. When investors begin to shout "where got bad news" ... you know it has gone too far.

Just be careful out there. Oh, not all glove makers are the same, I prefer Hartalega among the whole bunch. Plus be careful on the ones with a much bigger free float, go do your own research.



p/s photos: Nancy Wu Ding Yan

Mulan & Funny People




Saw two movies by default not by choice, but they were major surprises for movie watching in 2009. The first was Mulan, I was checking out the Gold and Premier class seats at Mid Valley and all bloody seats were sold out except for Mulan. I said, damn why are they showing the bloody musical cartoon again, must be the holidays!! Was corrected that it was a big budget piece remake of Mulan starring Zhao Wei. Spent too long to park the car, too early to eat dinner, so end up buying tickets to Mulan ... gee, there goes one of my ration of 3 original films in Mandarin for the year.

At the end of the movie, the people leaving the theatre were ALL in pairs, and I bet you all the guys were dragged to see the movies by their female dates. No sensible male patron would be willing to suggest seeing Mulan starring Zhao Wei. No one would even consider Zhao Wei as anywhere believable as a expert warrior (even in disguise). Oh ... but the brilliant Jingle Ma was the director.

Take all that into account, it was a surprisingly fantastic movie. Its about Mulan (whose story we all know by now) but its a lot more than that - there were added layers to the storyline. In the end, it was a very strong anti-war movie, it questions the actual relevance of fighting and dying for a country or your king when you are really all just minor pawns in the whole greater scheme of things. Its about brotherhood and loyalty, its about the greater good, its about coming out of the bloodshed with your integrity intact. Oh, yes, there is a powerful unrequited love story as well.

The other movie was Funny People by Judd Apatow, starring Adam Sandler, Seth Rogen and Leslie Mann. I really thought it was going to be another Adam Sandler piece of low brow but enjoyable movie. Its about a successful stand up and a few other up and coming stand up comics. But man, the show is not only funny, it tries to tackle deeper issues which I never thought Apatow, Rogen or Sandler would be able to do. Reviews of this film have been all over the board. Some people have loved it and said it was the funniest movie of the year, some people have hated it and called it self-indulgent and elongated.

It puts the scars and vulnerabilities of stand up comedians, their anxieties and stress, all out in the open. It cuts right through these "funny people". It also attempts to deal with issues of mortality when that collides with mid life crisis. Trying to patch up things we didn't do too well in the past - the nuanced things about regret, redemption and forgiving yourself. The heavy subject matter of settling, for only so-so ... in many things in life.

Seth Rogen was great as Ira, the young comedian that Sandler employed as his comedy writer. Its a fantastic movie because the movie fleshes out the character of the main guys brilliantly, you identify with them all within the first half hour. You feel their pain and happiness. Ira's clumsy crush with Aubrey Plaza was too funny but very understandable.

This is certainly one of the funniest and most heart felt movie of the year - very intelligent, nuanced, not all living happily ever after but kind of ... kind of like real life.




Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Some Interesting Political Cartoons









China Is Really Aware That It Has a Bubble Situation




Unpaid credit card debt in China has risen by a horrifying 126.5% from a year ago. Beijing should have known this very well as it was central government which instructed the banks to lend like crazy 12 months ago. As at the end of September 2009, there was 7.43bn yuan of credit card debt that was at least 6 months overdue. Mainland Chinese banks pushed those credit cards aggressively when Beijing "encouraged" the banks to be "easier with loans and credit disbursements". Beijing had encouraged banks to expand that line of business thinking that it would boost retail sales. Well, it may have had that effect, but they now also have a credit binge problem. The overdue amount represented 3.4% of total credit card debt.

The problem can get a lot worse because as it stands, the penetration rate in China for credit cards is only 0.13 cards per person now. Compare that to the US, a place where like New Zealand for sheep, there are 1.5bn cards for its 300m population - unbelievable, 5 cards for each person, including kids.


p/s photos: Marie Ann Umali

Country Default Risk




The Dubai debacle has prompted Bespoke Research to put up the various country risk of default. There are CDS being traded that measures the cost of insuring $10,000 of country debt for 5 years. If you look at the table, Dubai's cost is $541, which is comparatively a lot better off than say, Argentina $985, Venezuela $1,170. However, $541 is a very very high figure. You can get a sense of just how global traders view Dubai's risk of default by looking at countries that are a bit cheaper to insure: even the hellish Iceland is at just $398, however that has dropped from a highly precarious $976 at the end of 2008; the problematic Russia cost only $218.

Surprisingly, Indonesia's risk to insure is very high at $231. Malaysia looks like a hero among these countries, costing only $117. The risk traders are not stupid, they do look at everything, they have China at just $87.

The USA still have its reserve status firmly intact, despite the recent rumblings over the dollar and the furiously overworked money printing press by the Fed, it only cost $32 to insure. Australia is at a highly enviable $34.

I should really start to trade these country default CDS. I think on a 12 month view, my likely preferred trades in my order of attractiveness would be:

1) Buy Japan at $81 (buy as in hoping that the cost to insure would go much higher over a 12 month period).

2) Buy US at $32.

3) Buy Australia at $34.

4) Sell Indonesia at $231.

5) Buy Egypt at $241.

6) Buy Mexico at $159.

7) Sell the Philippines at $208.

Funnily enough, I cannot really place a bet on Malaysia, don't really have a strong clue up or down ..lol. Even curiouser was that I have a better sense of countries where their risk is seeming rising, but not as strong a conviction for countries on the improve.

Oh, to explain my top 3 bets: Japan's public debt is actually quite insurmountable and is reaching a climax - they keep having to change the Prime Minister because no one has the political will to effect the changes, something's gotta give soon; the USA reserve status is overstated, and while I think the status will remain, it won't be as strong as before and a gradual realignment is necessary (i.e. weaker dollar) to get the country on a proper debt reduction diet; Australia's euphoria is largely centered on China's state funds voracious appetite for resources, I do not expect that to go unabated, a lot more downside than upside from here, I expect the OZ government to be a bit more restrictive in "selling natural resources" to China in the months ahead.

Cdspric


p/s photo: Olivia Ong

Tuesday, December 01, 2009

How To Tell Whether An Expat Is Working In HK Or Singapore





Accidentally stumbled across a site for expats in Asia. They have a satirical write up on their welcome landing page. Its funny. The site is expatspaytoomuch.com


You know you are a Singapore Expat when:

You forget what chewing gum tastes like. You wear winter clothes indoors and summer clothes outdoors. You think a bus is incomplete without a TV. You say handphone, not cellphone. You order warm water because too much ice water is bad for you. No matter what you're doing at the moment, you'd rather be shopping You are certain that Holland Village has very few Dutch people and is a place for hippie bohemian artist types and overpaid yuppies. Your idea of a good night out consists of having dinner at a hawker centre and then eating again. Durian and belachan no longer stink. You justify every argument with the phrase "in order for us to be competitive in the 21st century". Most of these acronyms make sense to you: NUS, NTU, ERP, SDU, PAP, MRT LKY, GCT, PRC, TIBS, SBS, SMS, JB, JBJ, AMK, AYE, PIE, ECP, ISD, ISA, CPF, CHIJMES, SPG, CWO.


You get annoyed if you don't see a sign telling you how long your wait's going to be for a bus, a train, or the expressway. You think everything should be 'topped up'. You think there is nothing wrong with putting chilli sauce on everything you eat. You think US$1 million is reasonable for a smallish condo, but S$5 for a plate of fried noodles is a rip off.


You know you are an expat in HK when:


You have developed a taste for mooncakes. Your building's security guard is 4x older than the building itself. All your clothes are tailor-made or come from Giordano. You are not surprised to see an 85 year old lady pushing tons of garbage / cardboard boxes up the street. You believe shopping and eating are the only forms of entertainment. You have become a shameless-name-dropper. You have a MontBlanc pen clipped to your shirt pocket. You believe the HK Jockey Club is an honourable philanthropic organisation.

You can tell who is Andy Lau, Jacky Cheung and Hacken Lee.
You believe you are really tall when you are only 5' 8". You get offended when people admire your chopsticks skills. You speak enough Cantonese to make your colleagues laugh their heads off. You bring a coat and scarf to fight hypothermia in supermarkets, buses, ferries and cinemas. You are not surprised to find footprints on the edge of toilet bowls. You use the word "Ayyiiieeeaahh" to convey surprise, pain or anger. You are always looking forward to the next Typhoon 8. You think US$2m is a reasonable price for a flat but HK$40 for a plate of noodles is a ripoff.


p/s photos: Rozita Che Wan

Monday, November 30, 2009

Asian Citrus - Who Is At Fault?





Just as I was touching down in HK, I learn of a recent HK listing that went totally apeshit!! The new listing was a company called Asian Citrus. It was not really a new listing more as the introduction of a dual listing, it was already listed on AIM in London, and this HK listing is more of a homecoming of sorts, led by CLSA Asia Pacific Markets. Now the funny thing was the company went for a 1 into 10 share split on 2 November 2009, and that was already reflected in its London share price. The stupid thing was that NOBODY adjust the NAV figure for the split for its HK dual listing of its shares. Prior to the share split, its NAV was RMB 37.30 per share. After the share split, the NAV per share data for its HK listing prospectus was also the same at RMB 37.30 per share.

~ 1.0 Chinese yuan / renminbi = 1.13 HKD

As there are no new issued shares in this listing, so the initial sellers must have been people who had transferred their shares from the London market, in which case they should have been well aware that the London market was trading on a post-split basis and had closed the previous day at 45.75 pence, equivalent to HK$5.89. Technically, the IPO price for HK should be HK$5.89, and it should trade at a slight premium in HK exchange owing to the fact that it will be more liquid.

If you were trading on Thursday, you will find those screens giving company information that Asian Citrus had a NAV of RMB 37.30 and not RMB 3.73. The info provider cannot be blamed as they are just inputting information from the prospectus. The company itself cannot be faulted as its the investment banking unit that collect the fees for doing this kind of work. The company may have to share some of the blame if the CFO / CEO of Asian Citrus never reviewed the document, or if the CFO / CEO was asked to signed off on the document and they actually did.

On Thursday 26 Nov, the stock had opened at a high of HK$51.25 (in the pre-market auction session) and had been falling all morning in HK. The stock was suspended at HK$19.94 at 11:57am, after registering a turnover of 12.72m shares for HK$291.06m in value, or an average HK$22.88 per share. When trading resumed on Friday, it crashed to a closing price of HK$7.10.

The listing of ASIAN CITRUS 00073.HK stock by introduction was managed by CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. I believe all who bought or sold can get all their losses being reimbursed by CLSA, as I can see the manager of the issue being mainly fully responsible for the documentation. Of course those who lost money will want compensation, what about those who profited, will they be asked to return the gains? I think asking those to made the gains to cough back out the money will be very very hard to do. Its a willing buyer, willing seller, and if I see a willing buyer at HK$51, and I sold, the transaction is legal.

However, the buyers who bought at HK$30-HK$51 are very likely to have RELIED on the NAV figure in doing that trade. One may argue that they should have used the London last traded price as a benchmark. That is a very weak argument as that goes on to impose so many "information hurdles" on what the actions of a fair minded normal person. A normal person is likely to look at the posted or printed NAV, because many recent China linked companies have been benchmarked to its NAV, either as a slight discount to a slight premium. At RMB 37.30, it is so easy to lure a buyer to bid at HK$40 at least as most China related listing usually trade at more than its NAV.

Heads will have to roll, unfortunately. HK Exchange has been VERY SLOW to tackle the matter. CLSA, understandably, has been very quiet, maybe busy consulting or pummeling their in-house fengshui master for NOT alerting them to this major pitfall, ... so bloody close to end of the year, ... thereby fucking up all their Asia bonus plans ... (shit, I have to forfeit the deposit on the new Cayman).



p/s photo: Anjelica Lee Sin Je

Business Commentary As I Am Traveling




No time for long posts, but I will try to record down interesting observations pertaining to business and commerce. Still in HK, contrary to popular perception, this financial center has many layers to it. The ultra rich (listed company owners and property owners) basically get to enjoy all the perks. HK is a place where its good to be rich. The ultra rich population probably is just the top 1%-2%. Then there is the upper middle class. To qualify, you basically has to have paid up at least one property and be invested / paying off one or two more properties - that will put you in the net assets region of HK10m-HK30m. I think that makes up another 10% of the population. I think I have to qualify here, its 10% of households, and not an absolute number of people.

Its crazy I know, but if your net worth is below HK10m, I don't even consider you as upper middle class, because you are not living as upper middle with your net worth below that in HK. If your net worth is between HK1m-HK10m, you are middle class. That grouping probably makes up another 20% of households. If your household net worth is less than HK1m, you should be living in government flats, busily saving to put down payment on a private property - this grouping should total about 50%. Included in this group are those who are still battling the negative equity aspect from the last financial crisis.

What about the rest? The rest are barely making ends meet, and its a significant grouping, with a large number of them being recent immigrants. Many are just around the poverty line, and would be receiving some sort of subsidy or monthly allowance from the government.

Of course, this is not a scientific data collection but rather from my observations from having been in HK many times over the past 10 years. Its a brutal society when it comes to money. Its unapologetic in its pursuit of money, and when you have it almost all your other character failings an be overlooked. The funny thing is that even the poor would still be wanting to work and live in HK, rather than complaining and protesting of the wide disparity of income between the poor and rich. Here is one place where the poor and striving will work hard willingly, grumble a bit about where they are but will not blame the place or the rich because they somehow embody and breathe the spirit of capitalism - its OK to be poor, but at least its a place that give me a shot at being rich if I work hard, get the right opportunities, and/or the other cards fall in the right places for me.


p/s photo: Rachel Kum

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Important View On Dubai World Factor In Equity Strategy




Well, just as swiftly foreign money came into emerging markets, just as swiftly will they leave, and not even on something direct. An indirect scare out of Dubai seems to be enough reason to take the chips from the table. On Wednesday, Dubai World, the government investment company behind some of the emirate's most ambitious projects, said it was seeking to delay repayment on a tranche of its debt. The company has $60bn of liabilities from its various companies including Nakheel, the property firm behind the Palm Jumeirah, the world's biggest artificial island, and the Nakheel Tower, the world's tallest building at 1km high. It also owns DP World, the ports operator that bought P&O Ferries. Nakheel is due to make a $3.52bn Islamic bond repayment, plus charges, on December 14.

Traders feared that the request for a six-month standstill was a sign that the Dubai Government was struggling with its other debts – and that the full impact of the financial crisis globally may not yet be over. British bank stocks, that are among the most exposed in the world to the Middle East, were hard-hit. Royal Bank of Scotland slumped 7.75pc, Lloyds Banking Group lost 5.75pc and HSBC fell 4.4pc – all three are among nine banks who were book runners on an outstanding $5.5bn syndicated loan to Dubai World in June 2008. HSBC's interim accounts showed that the bank had a $15.9bn exposure to the whole of the United Arab Emirates.

The concerns for UK banks also hit sterling, which fell to its weakest point in a month against the euro and a basket of currencies, while gilt futures leapt to a six-week high, propelled by renewed fears about credit quality. Property shares fell sharply amid concerns of a fire sale of Dubai's UK assets, which include the Grand Buildings in London. Dubai has also been a major buyer of UK property.

The risk of corporate default in Dubai clearly shows that contagion risks have not disappeared and that perhaps the market has turned a little complacent about risk. Foreign money flew out of emerging markets yesterday and the cost of borrowing shot up as investors sweated over the prospect of a state-owned Dubai company defaulting and sending another round of shock waves through the global banking system.

Banks in Europe and North America are heavily exposed to the Middle East, and Dubai in particular, with its $80 billion of debt. The cost of borrowing money increased sharply with the increased risk in financial markets. Credit default swap rates (CDS) rising on debt issued out of the Middle East and emerging markets rose, and borrowing costs on Dubai's five-year loan jumped to 5.4 per cent, up 2.24 per cent in two days.

If you look at the emerging nations' stock market performances it gives you a feel of how quickly Western capital will flow out of these nations on default fears. That said, we have to acknowledge that this is largely not long term funds anyway. These funds will find some obscure reasons to get out, if it wasn't this Dubai World situation, it will be some other obscure factor. Thats part and parcel of the high risk of having carry trades into your system. You can complain when they exit, but somehow the same people never seem to complain when they arrive??!! (ala Mahathir).

If nothing is resolved for Dubai World in the next few days you could expect more of the same next week. Uncertainty will breed fear, in other words. However methinks the risk of contagion is relatively low this time around - plus it came at a time when most equity markets were quite robust, and were actually looking for a reason to correct. This would be a good reason to correct - but I would have to say that its a buy on weakness this time around, rather than a "go for a few months holiday" kind of correction. I think markets should have a few more days of weakness, and a good strategy would be to slowly build up positions.

One big thing which most of the Western media have neglected is the role of Abu Dhabi/UAE in this - many seemed to just gloss over this. Abu Dhabi won't allow Dubai's state-owned companies default on debt payments as the global banking crisis limits their access to funds. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are interdependent and one can't be isolated from the other. Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is the world's largest sovereign wealth fund with assets of between $250 billion and $850 billion, according to the International Monetary Fund. The emirate owns more than 90 percent of the U.A.E.'s oil reserves, nearly 8 percent of the world's proven total.

Take all that into account, the risk of contagion and another credit crunch was low. Because seriously, the Middle East is not the engine of growth or a crucial part of the recovery we are seeing in the global economy. The sums that the affected banks will have to bear are not overly large, they can be written down safely, yes these banks' share prices will take a hit, but its nowhere as bad as the subprime situation.


p/s photo: Haruna Yabuki

Thursday, November 26, 2009

The Best Singing Voice Ever - Nat King Cole




I was flabbergasted when at a social setting some of my colleagues did not know who Nat King Cole was. I said he was my all time favourite singer and probably had the best singing voice ever. He died before I was even born but talent and greatness will be discovered and rediscovered by future generations. Many people will know of the song When I Fall In love, which has probably been re-recorded to death by various artistes, like I said before, if you are not going to be able to add something new to the song, forget it. The original version still is the best. There was no one who could do "phrasing" quite as splendidly as him, its clear, you never need lyrics sheet, and its almost like a lyrical musical poetic recitation.


He was born on March 17, 1917, Montgomery, Alabama, U.S.—died February 15, 1965, Santa Monica, California. His full name is Nathaniel Adams Cole. American musician hailed as one of the best and most influential pianists and small-group leaders of the swing era. Cole attained his greatest commercial success, however, as a vocalist specializing in warm ballads and light swing.
The other song that everybody loved during Christmas, yes The Christmas Song was also by Nat King Cole. But my favourite has to be Stardust, exceptional tune delivered as Nat King Cole only could. If you try to collect his albums like me, its a hazardous task, he has released so many, over 40 I believe. Plus he will try to sing in other languages as well, his Spanish was good, and I have included his brilliant rendition of Dahil Sayo when he performed in Manila, shocking and the sending the audience into wonderment, a truly magical moment, you can feel it even just listening to the audio version. The Japanese version of L.O.V.E. was cute as well.




















China Is Aware That There Is A Bubble




As China is facing the prospect of large capital inflows from investors betting on RMB appreciation in 2010, policymakers have made it easier for mainland Chinese to invest abroad. This may be adding to the massive fund inflows other regional markets have experienced in 2009, especially China’s SARs. China’s rapid credit growth and loose monetary policies are also encouraging the trend.

  • WSJ: A bubbly property market in Hong Kong and record gambling revenues in Macau are partially a result of capital leaking out of China through “under-the-table transfers.” GaveKal Dragonomics says that the scale of the “shady money” coming from China’s loose credit and stimulus measures “is becoming slightly embarrassing for Beijing.” Capital controls are supposed to regulate the amount of money flowing to the SARs, but offshore bank accounts and other channels allow money to flow relatively freely. (11/23/09)
  • Michael Casey, WSJ: “[A] booming China is importing easy money from the Fed at a time when it least needs it, and is then exporting the same to its similarly undeserving neighbors.” (11/18/09)

Measures Taken to Increase Capital Outflows

  • On November 11, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said it would expand a program that allows individuals to exchange up US$5,000 per-day to non-financial institutions. This helped to spark a rally in China’s B-shares, which are mainland shares denominated in foreign currencies. (Bloomberg, 11/13/09)
  • In October SAFE announced US$1.5 billion in new quotas under the qualified domestic institutional investors (QDII) program, which allows mainland funds to be invested in overseas assets. These were the first new quotas granted in 17 months.
  • In July 2009, SAFE eased rules on the use of foreign exchange by Chinese firms, which will allow companies to borrow in foreign currencies on the mainland, invest with their foreign exchange revenues, and seek new funding sources.
  • China's outbound direct investment reached US$55.6 billion in 2008, nearly double the amount in 2007, but much lower than the US$92.4 billion of inbound direct investment. In 2009, the gap looks may narrow. Through Q3 2009, the Ministry of Finance reported US$32.8 billion in non-financial outbound FDI, up slightly from the same period last year. Meanwhile, FDI to China decreased 14% y/y over the same period.
  • Mainland Chinese are limited to converting US$50,000 per-year into foreign currency, but investors often pool the quotas of family and friends to get around the limits.

p/s photo: Maggie Wu

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

2012 - How To Offend Everyone




The movie 2012 tells of the annihilation of the world as we know. It seems the Mayans kept many calendars, including one known as the “Long Count Calendar.” This calendar will reach the end of a 5,100-year-long epoch on December 21, 2012. My, my, got exact date some more, better move some things from my schedule then...

Coincidentally, the Tang Dynasty prediction in ancient China also foretold that the Earth would undergo a complete makeover, which could be interpreted as the end of the existing world, in the Year of Dragon (2012). Meanwhile, NASA satellite data have shown that the oceanic ice in the Arctic Circle this summer is only half its coverage four years back. A NASA scientist has said, "At this speed, the Arctic Ocean will be totally depleted of ice at the end of 2012 summer."


As the headline said, how to offend everyone. If the Mayan calender is correct, basically almost everyone dies, maybe a few will survive if they were living in a cave or under some other contraption. If 2012 is correct, then Buddhism as we know also vanishes, so many are still waiting to be reincarnated, as we all know how far we all are from being a buddha or reach total enlightenment. Say they were a few survivors and they somehow manage to procreate, so the reincarnation cycle still holds true, but man... can you imagine the queue to get reincarnated!!!

What about the Christians, well we were waiting for Revelation, but where is the rapture? Surely many Christians were "taken away" at the same time as non-believers, that cannot be right. The Jewish folks are no better, supposedly chosen people, dang... where is the first coming of Christ?

If 2012 were right, then were the atheists proven correct? Maybe, but you buggers also had to perish. Maybe being right didn't sound so appealing now. Does it make you feel better to be right and dead before your time is up? Well, for some people, to be right is more important than to be alive.

Back to reality, the Mayans, themselves, said very little about this date, though records show they certainly did not believe the world would end at that time. Many of their descendants today have complained that the current 2012-related hysteria is simply a “gringo invention.” In addition, the Bible powerfully warns against astrology and other occult practices for divination of future events (e.g., Deuteronomy 18:10-12; Jeremiah 10:2)—warnings that today’s 2012-obsessed individuals ignore, or perhaps have never heard.

Though this posting is tongue in cheek, we must remember that even with everybody dead, we all still have our souls to contend with... so where is you soul going to, and what will it be doing the rest of the time?

How to know if you have a soul. Do this one time, stand in front of the mirror and stare at yourself, you do it long enough (say 5-10 minutes) you will realise that what you see is a shell and that its your soul that lives and breathes, and that your soul can actually inhabit any shell, form or appearance, and you should know that that doesn't die off.

Take care of your soul.


p/s photo: Miho Kanno

HK IPOs Sizzling Hot




HK's IPO market has surpassed other financial centers by the proverbial mile this year. The liquidity arriving into HK from China and from the US carry trade have helped fuel the boom. The thing that sets this event apart is the proximity to the recent global crisis, and the pent up demand to raise cash by many large companies. Again, as I have warned before, I am quite uncomfortable with the upcoming UC Rusal IPO, a highly questionable and large IPO. Things could be derailed very swiftly if things do not go as planned.

The Standard: Hong Kong is now the world's premier destination for initial public offerings, having raised US$13.82 billion (HK$107.79 billion) in the first 10 months of the year.

Shanghai along with the increasingly hot Brazilian stock exchanges as well as New York were left in the wake of Hong Kong by the end of October, according to the World Federation of Exchanges after its latest month-by-month review.

Hong Kong was ranked top as the largest listing market by fund-raising size, the federation revealed. In taking the No 1 spot, it knocked the Shanghai exchange from the perch it had occupied for three straight months since July. Shanghai's IPO take for the year now stands at US$12.37 billion.

Yet funds being raised are still comparatively modest when compared to the 2006 and 2007 golden years - a period that was brought to a crashing end by the financial tsunami. In each of those years, the Hong Kong exchange counted more than HK$300 billion, driven by heavyweight listing candidates such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398). That raised HK$124.9 billion in 2006.

Hong Kong is now seeing investment capital pouring into the listing market "as there is no other way to go due to the low interest rate," said Bright Smart Securities general manager Nelson Chan Kai-fung.

The number of offerings this year to yesterday was 62 percent up on last year. Forty-seven companies have turned to Hong Kong this year for flotations, and two-thirds of them were listed in the July

-November period, according to Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (0388). "I believe the number of listing candidates will continue to climb in early 2010," said Prudential Brokerage's Mark To.

Companies are eager to cash in on market liquidity "before the central banks tighten monetary policy in the wake of economic recovery," To added. The surge in listings is also expected to continue next year because the SAR is considered a main beneficiary of efforts by the mainland to maintain its momentum. Indeed, brokers see China as the economy with the most growth potential. "The world is looking to tap the China market, and Hong Kong is the place which enables other economies to have access to it," To said. "Nearly 99 percent of the listing candidates generate income from the mainland."

Chan has a similar reading on the potential for the Hong Kong market. He believes it will draw more listing candidates from other countries, helped by an intense effort by HKEx to attract overseas firms.

Continuing the trend, UC Rusal, the world's biggest aluminum maker, is likely to be the first Russian firm to list in Hong Kong. It has a listing hearing on Thursday. It hopes to dual list 10 percent of its shares in Hong Kong and Paris this year - a move with an estimated value of US$2 billion.


p/s photos: Zhou Weitong

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

The Nasties Of Hot Money In Asia




Is there "hot money" in the system? Yes, the Fed's and ECB's low interest rates policy has already started the USD carry trade a few months back, and it could add a Euro carry trade to its banner soon. So, where do you think the money is headed or has been residing? Its Asia. The easy way to see where it has been headed over the past few months is to look at Asia's strongest currency this year. At the top of the heap was the Indonesian rupiah, followed by the Korean won and then the Indian rupee. So much so that the central banks at South Korea and Indonesia have expressed strong concerns over the inflow of hot money into their system. Beware of the current gains you have been seeing in stocks, property and currency in these two countries. They could just as easily disappear overnight. It also appears that the new favoured son by these carry trades is Taiwan.

Hence, we may well appreciate the efforts of Bank Negara a bit more over the past 18 months because Zeti refused to join in the bandwagon to "allow" the ringgit to appreciate too much. Rightly or wrongly, much of the hot money bypassed Malaysia and the ringgit because the ringgit is still not "that accessible and free-floated". By maintaining a disciplined approach, Bank Negara has basically staved off any future problems that may have to do with hot money moving too fast into the system and then too fast out of the system.

Many have been wondering why the Malaysian markets did not rise by as much as their regional peers. In fact Malaysian stock market has been in the bottom quartile in performance when compared to other Asian bourses. A huge part of the answer lies in the currency issue just discussed. Safe to say that taking that point further, we may argue that much of the rise in asset prices in other Asian markets may have been mostly "inflated" by the liquidity rush.

Is the region in grave danger of a collapse when these funds exit? What would cause the funds to exit? Well, if the Fed starts to raise rates, not likely over the next 6 months at least. Well, if there is a fresh war or political instability somewhere that causes people to rush to the reserve currency, and/or a massive jump towards risk aversion. The key I guess, is to monitor the rumblings and big trades in USD and the interest rate policy discussions.

On November 10, 2009, Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission barred foreign investors from parking their money in time deposits after bringing funds into the country. Plus, foreign investors will not be allowed to extend the deposit maturity beyond three months. Until now, foreign investors were allowed to deposit 30% of the inflows in time deposits for three months with a possible extension for another three months. Portfolio investors can still invest 30% of the net inflows in government bonds, money market instruments, money market funds and derivatives. As of October 2009, foreign investors had parked US$15.5 billion in Taiwan dollar accounts, almost five times the level considered appropriate by the central bank. The central bank has voiced concerns that beside investing in Taiwanese stocks, foreign investors were putting money into Taiwan Dollar deposits to earn interest plus currency arbitrage given the appreciating Taiwan dollar.

The move follows large capital inflows into Taiwan's dollar accounts recently which is putting upward pressure on the Taiwan Dollar and hurting export competitiveness. The central bank has been intervening in the FX market and had recently hinted at capital controls to contain currency strength.

This need not be an explosive issue as it seems that the central bankers in the affected countries are aware of the situation. The danger is when the central bankers do not have the political will to act as they should, or they act too slow to temper the liquidity inflow. One can easily reduce the inflow with various measures, so as to minimise the ill-effects of withdrawal of these kind of hot money.

Funnily, the US Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia president Charles Plosser said that the capital flows into Asia are a result of a stronger recovery in the region. He added that the flows are not such that he would consider them to be threatening or inconsistent with fundamentals. OMG, the danger is when enough people in high places in Asia believe that diatribe. These are not long term FDI, its short term, its a play on currency outlook and interest rate differentials, is short term - how in the world can Plosser say its not threatening. It can move asset prices up by 30%-50% in 6 months, and we know its seriously never going to be long term, so when they exit, how can Plosser say that it won't be threatening???!!!


p/s photos: Reon Kadena

Monday, November 23, 2009

Let Me Introduce You To Kartina Dahari








Many Malaysians (including younger Malays even) have not heard of Kartina Dahari. Well, she was one of the top singers in the 60s and 70s. She was known for her keroncong songs. Don't ask me how I know of her songs, heard it on the radio when I was much much younger but you could hardly get a copy of her recordings on CDs. Keroncong styled songs are not everyone's cup of teh tarik, for me it struck a chord, you need to slow everything down, relax and take it easy and go with the flow of the songs - it soothes the soul. She is from Singapore although she lives in London most of the time now with her son. I love her voice, her delivery and her keroncong songs were highly accessible. Whenever I listen to her songs, I think of my younger days with my dad driving on the old trunk road on the way to Penang, late afternoon, windows down, with the breeze and trees as companions.


Easily her rendition of Sayang di Sayang has to be my favourite. P. Ramlee's Bunga Melor has been covered by so many artistes, but I know of no better version than the one by Kartina - effortless, restrained and lyrical. Lastly, the highly popular Di Tanjong Katong, most people know the song but not the singer - yes, its Kartina as well on this song so emblematic of Singapore.











Party Pills On The Rise





Now, read the headline again. That was the front page headline in The Star today. I do find it exasperating to read mainstream media because I always have to categorise them in my mind first as genuine news reporting, or opinions, or half truths or just plain propaganda. Hence reading msm is not an enjoyable task anymore.

I had to write about the headline in The Star today, because you see the word "party" you naturally think its another story about politics. When you read on its actually about designer drugs and drug use among the youth and young adults.

Imagine if it WAS about backbenchers in certain Malaysian political parties!!! I had to laugh when I saw the headline because if its about political parties, ... its damn funny man .... ; ) ... Party Pills On The Rise... of course, you know why they are called "pills"... because they are a bloody nuisance, they are supposedly good for you but damn hard to take, and fucking hard to swallow and to keep down. Now thats funny!!!


p/s photos: Agnes Monica

Why I Like Kim Hin (A Lot)



Another one which is part of the recovery story. This is is even better that the couple that I have featured recently. Kim Hin had a troublesome spot a few years back but has "revamped its thinking and strategy" to be a an out-and-out transparent, diligent and professional company. The first couple of years, not many believe that the tiger has changed its stripes. I have been monitoring the company, on and off, and I must say, I am giving it near full marks. They did not simply play their shares anymore like before. I mean, look at the 52 week high-low, its just 84 sen and 1.15.

Its been moving this morning and I am already typing as fast as I could. Please do not think that I am whacking the shares before posting. Kim Hin Industry is an investment holding company engaged in manufacturing and distribution of ceramic floor, homogeneous and monoporosa tiles. The company through its subsidiaries is involved activities that include trading of building materials, property letting, property and investment holding; and wholesale and retail of ceramic tiles. Kim Hin primarily operates in Malaysia, China and Australia. It is headquartered in Sarawak. The company recorded revenues of MYR251.5 million in the fiscal year ended December 2008. Its net profit was MYR4.2 million in fiscal 2008. Thats fine and dandy because it was the difficult 2008. To even come out in the positive is an achievement to cost control and product acceptance.

Basically, there is only one big catalyst:

For the 2Q ended June 2009, its revenue was RM63m and net profit was RM9.48m (note that the whole of 2008 its net profit was just RM4.2m. The !Q2009 was still difficult for them, the carry on effects of the financial crisis, which saw only a net profit of RM1.37m.

Those who monitor quarterly results (they should, especially when you are looking for srong recovery stocks) will note that they released their 3Q2009 figures on 18 Nov. It was outstanding. Revenue was RM65.3m and net profit was RM11.9m!!! If you take in the first 9 months of 2009, its total net profit came to RM19.82m or a net EPS of 13.77 sen. If you assume they make a similar sum for 4Q 2009, basically you can add another 6 sen to the figure, making it a net EPS of 20.77 sen.

Now 20.77 sen is very significant for a stock that trades below RM1.30. A PER of around 6x. Its net asset per share is RM3.08. Its got RM87.2m cash in bank, and about RM40m in liabilities. All that will become very significant when you consider they only have 154.9m shares. That translates into:

Net cash per share of 30 sen
Net tangible asset of RM3.08
Share price below RM1.30
Net EPS (likely) for 2009 of 20 sen

In a recovery, this stock should see a similar surge in business over the next 2 years at least. The stock and figures sell by itself.

The above were views on stocks and sectors that I like, not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.


Should The US Really Desire A Strong Yuan

The yuan has basically rise by 20% over the last 12 months against the USD. Still, many have been calling for a dismantling of the yuan's peg. The peg, they argue, offers China a competitive advantage by making its products cheaper in U.S. markets, thus allowing Chinese firms to gobble up market share and steal jobs from U.S. manufacturers. The thought is that were China to allow its currency to rise, American manufactures would regain their lost edge, and both manufacturing firms and the jobs formerly associated with them would return. Well, that is the partial truth - the fact is the majority of China's exports are actually US products, owned by US companies manufacturing in China, then exporting it to other countries. China's voracious export machinery is due in part to the foreign investments, or better known as outsourcing. If it wasn't China, it would India, or some other Asian country or Latam country. That argument does not hold water.


One can also argue that the outsourcing movement has allowed many companies in the US and Europe to "save on costs" and hence report sustainable margins growth. To allow for a free floating yuan, say gaining another 30% against the USD over the next 12 months, could see those cost savings being shaved considerably. It won't help the US much as the companies will just look to produce the same goods and/or services somewhere else cheaper. It will be a long time before they say, let's go back and do this in the US, not when your basic manufacturing labour cost between $15-30 an hour.

While the peg certainly is responsible for much of the world's problems, its abandonment would cause severe hardship in the United States. The US economy is very dependent on life support provided by an endless flow of debt financing from China. These purchases are the means by which China maintains the relative value of its currency against the dollar. As the dollar comes under even more downward pressure, China's purchases must increase to keep the renminbi from rising. By maintaining the peg, China enables the US to continue spending more than they have and avoiding the hard choices necessary to restore the US long-term economic health. Conversely, a much stronger renminbi may actually result in China purchasing a lot less Treasuries as their surpluses figure would start dwindling down - so who is going to fund the US printing press when that happens?

Contrary to the conventional wisdom, when China drops the peg, the immediate benefits will flow to the Chinese, not to Americans. Yes, prices for Chinese goods will rise in the United States - but so will prices for domestic goods. As a corollary, the Chinese will see falling prices across the board. As anyone who has ever been shopping can explain, low prices are a good thing. In addition, credit will expand in China while it contracts in the US. As demand falls for both dollars and Treasuries, prices and interest rates in the United States will rise. Rising rates will restrict the flow of credit that is currently financing government and consumer spending. This change will finally force a long overdue decline in borrowing. Which is not really a bad thing, but it could derail the jobs outlook in the US for a prolonged period - a move that can be deem as political suicide at this point in time, and considering where we are following the financial crisis.

On the flip side, in the long run, the US economy will benefit from the abandonment of a system that guarantees our dependency and inevitable downfall. De-pegging will force the hand of US politicians toward pursuing realistic policies. The Chinese will come to their senses eventually because it is in their interest to do so. Meanwhile, the longer the peg is maintained, the more indebted the US become, and the more their industrial base shrivels. In short, the longer they wait, the steeper the fall for the US.

If Wal-Mart were a country it would be China's eighth-largest trading partner. Some 70% of the products sold in Wal-Mart have Chinese components. Billions of dollars of purchasing power would be taken from American consumers if the renminbi were to appreciate. While China's economy enjoyed 8.9% growth in the gross domestic product in the third quarter of this year, the country's continued economic strength is not guaranteed if the American consumer stays in a funk.

A fact not appreciated by many observers is that China is no longer an export-led economy. It is still important but not as big as perceived, exports still account for 20% of its economy. Already 10,000 factories have shut in export hubs like Guangdong. The ones that remain often exist on paper-thin margins of 2% to 3%. Even a small currency appreciation would cause thousands more factories to shut and leave millions more unemployed. That is something Beijing will not allow to happen.

The biggest currency problem in the world is not a weak yuan but a weak dollar. That is the issue President Obama should focus on. Foreign governments hold the dollar in vast quantities because it has been seen as stable. China and Japan alone hold over $3 trillion worth. As the dollar plummets, many nations are abandoning it, fearing further erosion in their portfolios. They have done so as quickly as possible but carefully as well, knowing that if they move too fast the dollar will fall even faster.

Rather than wasting time pushing China to strengthen the yuan, Obama and the Fed should figure out how to strengthen the dollar by paying down the US debts. A strong dollar, not a strong yuan, is the right debate.


p/s photo: Yang Mi

Friday, November 20, 2009

Love's Tapestry Coming Out On 18 December 2009




Really looking forward to another great local album. Remember 2V1G, the brainchild of Leslie Loh, and now he has assembled Roger Wang again but pairing his virtuosity with Gina Panizales (born and raised in Iloilo City, Philippines, but has been a regular performer in Malaysia). 2V1G was in Chinese, this is in English I believe and judging from the weekly updates from Leslie, this will be another excellent album by these talented and passionate mostly-Malaysians. Date of release 18 December 2009.
--------------
Updated: After the Solianos gig, I went with Leslie to his car to get a listen to the copy of Love's Tapestry. I must say that I am honoured to be among the first few to get a sampling. The songs were ballads from the 70s and 80s mainly, but taken down to a tender level, interspaced with the delicate guitar playing of Roger, coupled with the mature vocals of Gina, giving each song a fresh take. If you grew up in the 70s and 80s, you will love this album. Songs that you listened to when you slow danced, when you fell in love or were infatuated with someone, songs you listened to when you made the best friends ever, at a time where nobody wanted to rip you off, take advantage of you, a time when you made real friends ... The first song was the enchanting Fallen, given a samba feeling, and as Leslie said, the album starts off with falling in love and works itself into a loving relationship and the end comes heartbreak. My favourites include Just Tell Me You Love Me, a sublime and tender take on the England Dan & JF Coley classic - its more nuanced, slower and delicate than the original. The other has to be Still, originally by the Commodores, which I thought was too sparse as it left a lot of dead sound in the original - Gina's heartbreaking rendition added layers to the song coupled with Roger's sublime guitar play. The other worthy of mentioning was Roger's only instrumental piece, the Beatles' Here, There & Everywhere, the guitar phrasing and mood plucking was absorbing to say the least. Can't wait for the real thing ....
---------------

Click here for more information:


http://poppopmusic.blogspot.com/2009/11/loves-tapestrys-cover-unveiled.html


On-line purchases, please go to:

http://poppopmusic.blogspot.com/2009/09/online-purchase-of-loves-tapestry.html

We all know Roger Wang well (link on my webpage on the left column), to get a listen of Gina's voice, go to the link below where she has loaded a few songs from her first album "Finally".

http://www.myspace.com/ginapanizales

p/s: Leslie & I will be meeting up tonight to see The Solianos at NoBlackTie. In case you were wondering, the Solianos just happen to be the best grouping of family musicians Malaysia has ever had.







Demystifying Hell - Exothermic Or Endothermic




I was reminded of the funniest email I got a few years back. It must have made its way a couple of times around the world and re-enter my mailbox again. It had to be a true story because it would take so much effort to think up one from scratch.


The following was an actual question given on a University of Washington chemistry mid term. The answer by one student was so 'profound' that the professor shared it with colleagues, via the Internet, which is, of course, why we now have the pleasure of enjoying it as well.

Bonus Question: Is Hell exothermic (gives off heat) or endothermic (absorbs heat)?

Most of the students wrote proofs of their beliefs using Boyle's Law (gas cools when it expands and heats when it is compressed) or some variant.

One student, however, wrote the following:
First, we need to know how the mass of Hell is changing in time. So we need to know the rate at which souls are moving into Hell and the rate at which they are leaving. I think that we can safely assume that once a soul gets to Hell, it will not leave. Therefore, no souls are leaving.

As for how many souls are entering Hell, let's look at the different religions that exist in the world today. Most of these religions state that if you are not a member of their religion, you will go to Hell. Since there is more than one of these religions and since people do not belong to more than one religion, we can project that all souls go to Hell. With birth and death rates as they are, we can expect the number of souls in Hell to increase exponentially. Now, we look at the rate of change of the volume in Hell because Boyle's Law states that in order for the temperature and pressure in Hell to stay the same, the volume of Hell has to expand proportionately as souls are added.

This gives two possibilities:
1. If Hell is expanding at a slower rate than the rate at which souls enter Hell, then the temperature and pressure in Hell will increase until all Hell breaks loose.
2. If Hell is expanding at a rate faster than the increase of souls in Hell,then the temperature and pressure will drop until Hell freezes over.

So which is it?

If we accept the postulate given to me by Teresa during my Freshman year that, 'It will be a cold day in Hell before I sleep with you,' and take into account the fact that I slept with her last night, then number two must be true, and thus I am sure that Hell is exothermic and has already frozen over.

The corollary of this theory is that since Hell has frozen over, it follows that it is not accepting any more souls and is therefore, extinct.... leaving only Heaven, thereby proving the existence of a divine being which explains why, last night, Teresa kept shouting 'Oh my God.'

THIS STUDENT RECEIVED AN A+.


p/s photo: JJ

Stock Take On Highlighted Counters & Returns



Time to do stock take since I have said the risk-reward ratio has turned sour, plus my 1,280 target for the year has been reached. Hence I will have been more aggressive in reducing positions. Below was the link to the previous stock take:

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2009/10/stock-take-on-recommendations-returns.html

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2009/10/1260-to-1285-before-year-is-over.html


IJM Land, in at 1.81, supposed to wait for the 30% before, now 2.62... 44% take half profit, let the rest ride... but have a stop-loss(gain) at 2.50.
Now at 2.27, stop-loss gain triggered, out of stock at 2.50.

CIMB, in at 10.30, now at 12.44... 20%, will hold for the 30%.
Breached 13.00, very close to 30%, enough for now. Out.

QL Resources, in at 3.34, now at 3.46... wait for bonus.
Closed at 3.89, 16% gain, not enough, this one is safe enough to hold for its bonus.

Sep 7: Kurnia Asia 0.58, went to 0.76 (+31%), now at 0.70, took half profit, let the rest ride, stop-loss (gain) at 0.64.
Closed at 0.72, riding to 0.76 two weeks back. Up stop-loss gain to 0.69.

Sep 16: TAS Offshore: in 0.78, had a run to 0.89, back to 0.80, still ok.
Dwindled to 0.76, cut loss here, seems not to be panning out as I thought.
Sep 17: Ann Joo, in 2.30, now at 2.70, +17%, will wait for 3.00.
Closed at 2.89, so close to my 3.00, but cannot be too fixated some times, take all profit, can't complain with 25% in 2 months.

Sep 28: Hock Seng Lee, in 1.02, went to 1.20, now at 1.15, can wait till Budget news out then sell.
Excellent results, trying to recover, closed at 1.15. Not going to wait as the anticipated catalysts have appeared and the stock is finding it hard to scale up, too many stale sellers waiting above 1.20. Out.

Sep 29: TAE, in 1.45, hold for TA Global exercise.
Still comfortable with this, thinks that TA Global will fly and so too will TAE.

Oct 7: Evergreen, in 1.01, now 1.07, some ways to go.
Went above 1.50 strongly, 40-50% gain in 2 months, what more you want, out for now even though I think this is good to 1.80 but risk-reward not that good and had to reduce stocks.

Oct 8: CSC Steel, in 1.08, now 1.23 (+13.8%), strong accumulation by institutional funds, will keep.
Took my 30% or thereabouts at 1.38. Out for now.

Oct 9: BRDB, in 1.72, now 1.90, small position, will wait till volume breaks out.
Volume breakout never came, looks like a need to hold for a few more months, owing to big picture not that conducive, out.

Oct 12: Fajarbaru.
In at 1.20, did try to move but sluggish much like HSL, cut.

Oct 14: Weida.
In at 0.76, also sluggish 0.67, cut loss.

Oct 16: Efficient e-Solutions.
In at 0.235, went up a bit, but back down 20.5, cut at 0.22.

Though not a "Why I Like" stock, I did mention Magna Prima as a stock to watch, it has gone from low 2.00 to above 3.00 since then, no position.


Oct 20: Success Transformers.

In at 1.18, went to 1.32. Close at 1.21. Took 1/3 profit at 1.30. Will hold for Seremban Engineering IPO.


Oct 26: Notion VTec.

In at 0.505, 5 into one exercise. Now holding at 2.57. This one I will hold for the placement announcement and mid term.


Nov 6: Salcon.
In at 0.565, sold 1/3 at 0.605. Holding well, will keep the rest for my 30%.

Nov 13: Inch Kenneth.

In at 0.445. Volatile, sold 1/3 at 0.52. Closed at 0.475. Recent posting, will hold.

Nov 17: Supportive.
In at 1.03. Also volatile, sold 1/3 at 1.14. Closed at 1.09. Recent posting, will hold.

The above were views on stocks and sectors that I like, not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.


p/s photo: Maggie Wu

Hoopla Over Maxis & Market Mood




I am happy that Maxis did not get whacked by retailers to stratospheric levels. I really think private investors have grown up a lot. They listened, they read, most of them know this Maxis is not the Maxis of old. I hope they also appreciate that the mobile penetration rate is vastly different from what it was ten years ago. I also hope they did not get fixated at the previous privatisation / sale at around RM15 (I think, I forgot). Most importantly, they refused to pay above fair value (deemed as having a properly competitive dividend yield) for what is basically a 70% dividend stock. By that, I mean they did not "take out the institutions" or gave them more gains than necessary. We all deserve a pat on the back. The players have grown up - if you lose enough money, you will learn, we all do.

What about the liquidity drain that Maxis was supposed to effect on the bourse? Yes, I have heard some selling their other shares to ready funds to buy Maxis, thankfully they have been few and far in between. Is there liquidity being soaked, yes of course, its not a small issue. A lot of funds had to rebalance their portfolio to accommodate Maxis. Due to the very tiny issue to the public, not an excessive amount of funds was tied up. In fact, the sluggish markets over the last ten days can be attributed to this liquidity being drained, or it actually scared many players into not participating in the markets owing to the fear of a possible down trending market.

So, if the US and China markets continue to behave, will the next few days be OK for local bourse? Most would believe that with Maxis out of the way, the markets should resume its uptrend to try for 1,300 ... will they be proven right. The markets have reached my target of 1,280 for the year. To me, it could overshoot that but it will be difficult to breach 1,300 this year, regardless of how well the US and China markets are performing. To conclude, the risk-reward is not particularly attractive. I have been scaling down holdings, and sticking to very selective stocks with near term catalysts only - in other words I would stay very selective and stick to diligent stock picking. As it is, I am finding it increasingly difficult to pick stocks to feature - the markets is trying to tell me something.

I do think there will another good round come January/ February 2010, but it will have to come down a bit first for that rally to occur. You cannot possibly have a good run for more than 3 months, it will over extend itself and be tired. One should always read markets like they view an athlete, they will show signs of fitness, strength, confidence, or weakness, tiredness, sluggishness etc. They way to read the signs is to monitor the top volume and top gainers, is there constant rotation or the same names, are the leaders moving with good catalysts or just simply goreng stuff. There will always be goreng stocks, the stronger they can do it, the stronger the underlying willingness of the market to participate, but when these stocks fail to attract followers, the answer is obvious. I would stick strictly with stock picking mode only and reduce mid-term or long term stocks.


p/s photos: Jessica C. (Wacoal's top model)

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Why I Like Yungkong Galvanising Industries




As the global economy recovers, it is also timely to look at stocks that were hurt by the downturn in global trade. As mentioned during my talk, you cannot outrun a crisis, but if there is little capital being decimated, and your business structure is in place, you should recover splendidly eventually. Evergreen was a prime example. I have just discovered another in Yungkong.

Yung Kong Galvanising Industries (YKGI) manufactures and sells galvanized and coated steel products. YKGI subsidiaries are involved in the manufacture and sale of galvanised and steel products, furniture hardware and accessories. The group primarily operates in Malaysia, where it is headquartered in Kuching.

The group recorded revenues of MYR479.3 million (approximately $144.4 million) in the fiscal year ended December 2008, an increase of 3.8% over 2007. The group's operating profit was MYR19.6 million (approximately $5.9 million) in fiscal 2008, a decrease of 44.2% compared to 2007. Its net profit was MYR1.2 million (approximately $0.4 million) in fiscal 2008, a decrease of 91.5% compared to 2007. Naturally Yungkong felt the harsh realities of the global turmoil, and its chairman explained their situation splendidly with clarity and purpose, facing the harsh realities head on.

Dato' Dr Hii Wi Sing in their Dec 2008 annual report said: "Yung Kong Galvanising Industries Berhad (YKGI) experienced a year of unavoidable and unpredictable norm with an unprecedented steep rise and followed by the deepest slump in prices for most commodities, including our raw materials and products. This happened so abruptly and sharply. Normal market principles become invalid and inapplicable during this plunge, and economies and markets crashed of tsunami scale. Massive consolidation occurred and everyone is rushing to cash out faster than the others. The great expectation of a bumper year for 2008 for our operations was abruptly terminated much earlier than the management’s anticipation, thus reversing most of our Group’s record pretax profit (PBT) of RM23.66 million achieved in the first half of the year to RM4.80 million for our financial year ended 31 December 2008. This is a stark comparison to RM20.56 million achieved in 2007. The weak result was due to a writedown (RM10.70 million) of inventory to their net realizable value and provision for doubtful debts of RM1.74 million. Our profit was further dampened by FOREX loss amounting to RM5.80 million caused mainly by the unexpected strengthening of the US dollar against the trend of most economists and professionals’ general consensus and predictions."

Catalyst #1 Earnings Recovery - This is the key catalyst. For the quarter ended June 2009, it recorded a revenue of MYR82.3m and a net profit of MYR1.92m. I expect even stronger results for the rest of 2009. Another good indicator is their inventories level, which stood at MYR91m as at end of 2008 and has been whittled down to MYR70.8 by end June 2009. Now you will blink if you miss this, for the quarter ended September 2009, net profit for that quarter jumped to MYR7.14m. Thats a strong recovery trend. Owing to the fact that they had a poor 1Q2009, total net profits to date as of end Sep 2009 came to MYR3.12m. It would be silly to incorporate the 1Q 2009 loss to the full year as that would not paint a fair picture of the current state of affairs. Assuming they make another net profit of MYR7m for 4Q2009, total net profits for the year would still be above MYR10m. On 195.5m shares, that works out to be a net EPS of 5.1 sen. At the current price of 46 sen, that comes to a PER of 9.1x.

Catalyst #2 Absurdly Cheap Even For A Cyclical Stock - As I said, if you annualise the third quarter alone MYR7.14m x 4 = MYR28.56m net profit theoretically. That works out to a massive 14.6 sen EPS. Divide that with its share price of 46 sen gives a PER of just 3.15x. A load of comfort here. Even if you take into account the full conversion of its warrants, the share base comes to 237.9m giving a net EPS of 12 sen, still less than 4x PER.

Longevity & Long term partner - On 9 May 2008, Yungkong celebrated the 25th anniversary of the signing of the Joint Venture Agreement between Yung Kong Co. Bhd, Sarawak and Marubeni Corporation (MISI), Japan for the operation of YKGI in 1983. The launching of their Klang’s operation was held on 10 October 2008, thus signifying the completion of the current phase of development in making YKGI an integrated steel coil coating company in Malaysia.

The net asset per share stands at 72 sen, no worries there. Yungkong is symbolic of the kind of cyclical recovery stock you want to hold for the medium term. My anticipated 30% should not be difficult to attain.

The above were views on stocks and sectors that I like, not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.


p/s photo: Jessica C.(top model for Wacoal)

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

The Malaysian Brain Drain & More Contractors Please!!!




This article is too important not to be read by more people. It is written by Koon Yew Yin. Who??? Well, if you like Mudajaya, IJM or Gamuda, Mr. Koon was one of the founders for all three companies. We certainly do not need more contractors - we must ensure that our resources are put into creating value to industry and economy, not creating layers after layers of profits being hived off.

The article was taken from Center For Policy Initiatives:
http://english.cpiasia.net/

Article by Mr. Koon can be linked to:

http://english.cpiasia.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1783:bumiputera-contractors-a-wasteful-national-mission-to-date-&catid=211:koon-yew-yin&Itemid=156

I wish our government would take to heart what Mr. Koon has been saying. If you talk about 1Malaysia, this is the 1Malaysia most of us are thinking about - I don't know about the one some minority have in their minds. If you think the contractor article was timely, have a read of his piece on the Great Malaysian Brain Drain penned in July. We all share his sentiments.

Note on the Author

I am a 76-year-old chartered civil engineer and one of the founders of the three larger construction companies listed in Bursa Malaysia. These are Gamuda Bhd, Mudajaya Group Bhd, and IJM Corporation Bhd.

I was a member of the Board of Engineers, Malaysia for three terms. I was also on the Sirim Board responsible in writing the Malaysian standard specifications for cement and concrete. In addition, I was the Secretary General of Master Builders Association, Malaysia for nine years.

These days, I am completely retired. My intention in writing this article is honourable. Many people may not like reading what I have written and the truth may be difficult to accept. Nevertheless, this is my considered analysis for the benefit of my country, the Bumiputera contractors and the construction industry.

-------------------------------------
Written by Koon Yew Yin
Wednesday, 18 November 2009

It is an indictment of our system that IJM is able to compete internationally for contracts but yet is required to work as a sub-contractor to Bumiputera companies on the North-South Highway in Malaysia.

On Oct 25, 2009 our Second Finance Minister Ahmad Husni Mohamad Hanadzlah said that government has vowed to cut down on wasteful spending to lower its budget deficit and all major public projects must go through the open tender system.

Earlier, the Auditor-General’s report for 2008 revealed continuing financial management weaknesses at every level of the government. Delays in project completion seem to be a perennial problem and the lack of oversight by various ministries and departments in the procurement of goods and services continue to cost the government hundreds of millions of ringgit.

These statements indicate perhaps that our Prime Minister Najib Razak may want to reverse his announcement on January 9 in Kuala Teregganu that the government would always look after Class F contractors. (Non- Bumiputeras cannot register as a Class F contractor).

The government had in fact already set aside RM900 million, which was RM300 million more than last year, for works to be undertaken by Class F contractors this year.

Producing competitive Bumiputera contractors

As reported on May 1, 2005, Malaysia had one contractor for every 614 persons. Most likely there are more contractors by now. This ratio is again likely to be amongst the highest in the world and is obviously costing the public a significant amount of money besides affecting our overall economic performance.

I would like to pose a few questions which may appear unkind or insensitive but nonetheless need to be asked.

Out of hundreds of high-rise buildings in Kuala Lumpur does anyone know of any Bumiputera contractor who has won any of the building contracts through an open competitive tender process? Out of hundreds of kilometers of highway in Malaysia, can any Bumiputera contractor who won any part of the highway contracts through open tender be identified?

The answer to the above questions unfortunately is in the negative. The evidence is that all the government’s well-intentioned efforts in trying to produce competitive Bumiputera contractors since 1957 have failed.

Why this has happened needs to be openly discussed rather than swept under the carpet. In this note, I share my experiences as a contractor and my knowledge of why Bumiputera contractors have failed in the past and what needs to be done by the government to correct this unhealthy situation.

Facts of life in the contracting business

Contracting is a very difficult business yet it is so easy to register as a contractor.

To register as a Class F contractor one has only to show that he has RM5,000. He does not even require a pass in Lower Certificate of Education (LCE). But it will take at least 10 years to learn how to overcome all the inherent difficulties and become competitive and efficient. Continuously giving out lucrative and over-priced contracts without open tenders will only make the recipients less competitive.

Secondly, studies have shown that there are more failures and bankruptcies in contracting than in any other business, and also almost all construction projects are NOT completed within the original scheduled time.

The delay will cost the contractor more and that is why you can often see uncompleted buildings and abandoned projects which have been undertaken by inefficient contractors. There are many reasons for this peculiar phenomenon.

1. Open tender system

Although this system is the best way to ensure completion of any project/contract at the lowest price, it is the most difficult obstacle any contractor has to face in the real competitive world. He must know his business very well and be efficient to face the open competition all the time. Like a good athlete, he has to keep fit and constantly be aware of the market conditions and his competitors.

There is a classic saying, ‘a cheap thing is not good and a good thing is not cheap’. But contractors always have to produce good work at the cheapest price.

In order to submit the cheapest tender, the contractor must be very optimistic in all his assumptions to get the cheapest rates. He must assume that he will not encounter any cash flow difficulties and that he will always get his progress payments on time to pay his creditors.

He must also assume that he will not encounter any difficulty in getting all the required materials on time to avoid any delay and also that there are ample workers for him to pick and choose from.

Furthermore, he must also assume that the heavens will be kind to him and he will not meet any inclement weather during construction. Invariably, many of these assumptions are proven wrong and thus completion delayed, and the infrastructure will cost more to complete than provided for in the contract.

2. The importance of teamwork

Teamwork is important in all business endeavours. It is more so in the contracting business. Every contractor must realise that his success is not going to be determined by his own knowledge, talent or abilities. It is going to be determined by his ability to develop a great team. Those who are closest to him will help determine the level of his success.

Every efficient contractor must have a reliable team comprising managers, sub-contractors, material suppliers, foremen and skilled workers. All the team players must cooperate with one another, bearing in mind that the main contractor’s survival depends on their contribution. Their main goal must be saving cost. If they cannot complete the contract within the tender price, all of them will also be affected.

3. Construction material pricing

There was no material price escalation clause in the conditions of contract before I became the Secretary General of the Master Builders Association. During the unprecedented oil crisis, building material prices shot through the roof. As a result, many contractors could not complete their contracts for schools and other projects. After several appeals the Public Works Department (PWD), now known as Jabatan Kerja Raya (JKR), eventually allowed only cement and steel for price variation reimbursement.

This was only a partial solution as hundreds of other items were excluded.

Without a protective price fluctuation clause for the other items, contractors are exposed to risk. At the same time, knowing that they have to undercut their competitors during the tender process, contractors would normally under-price to achieve the lowest tender. Invariably, most materials would increase in price due to inflation and other reasons. Contractors require many years of experience to be able to anticipate such price changes and to make adequate provisions for them whilst at the same time not overpricing their tenders and losing the bid.

4. No contract is exactly the same

No two high-rise buildings in KL are the same.

Construction of a building, a bridge or a stadium is always akin to making a prototype. The process is much more difficult than manufacturing any product where there is repetition. For example in making cars, the first prototype and the initial few cars may be more difficult to make but once everyone gets used to the routine, the manufacturing process will normally proceed smoothly.

However, in the construction of buildings or any civil engineering works, there is very little repetitive work. Every construction site is different and most of the people involved have never worked together before.

On top of this, there may also be inexperienced supervisory staff that can create a lot of difficulties for the contractors. Invariably, by the time all parties get used to the routine, the scheduled time is over.

5. Financing

Most contractors do not have sufficient capital to finance their undertakings.

Contractors generally do not have fixed assets like most manufacturers. They usually do not have land and buildings but, instead, they have construction equipment. Unfortunately, banks do not accept these moving assets as collateral for a loan. Without bank financing, contractors will obviously find it more difficult to undertake their business.

Beginning at the bottom: The key to success

I have provided some insight into why contracting is not a business that is as easy or profitable as it is commonly perceived to be.

There are other factors explaining why or how some of the most successful tycoons associated with the building or construction industry have managed to get where they are.

Firstly, it should be noted that the majority of listed companies were started by Chinese merchants most of whom incidentally did not have tertiary education. For example, Lim Goh Tong of Genting began his working career as a scrap iron dealer and a contractor; and Yeoh Tiong Lay of YTL Corp. started off as a small contractor.

Generally, Bumiputeras are not interested in working long hours in managing small businesses earning marginal profit. Because of the NEP, many have hopes of securing permits or concessions for big deals so that they can become instant millionaires. There are relatively few Bumiputeras involved in small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs).

More Bumiputeras should follow the humble footsteps of the Chinese to become traders and merchants for building materials and similar goods. The business skill they can learn from these humble beginnings will carry them a long way. I am very sure some of them will eventually become good contractors and successful businessmen if they learn the trade at the bottom and not try to parachute into the contracting business.

The importance of skilled workers

Although there are already many Bumiputera engineers unable to find employment, most of the universities are still producing more and more engineers every year. But without a sufficiently skilled workforce, all the engineers in the world would not be able to complete a single project.

There are so few Bumiputera construction foremen, carpenters and other skilled workers. If you were to go into any building construction site, you would see the truth of what I am saying. How many Malay carpenters have you seen in KL?

Without skilled Bumiputera workers, it would be more difficult for Bumiputera contractors to succeed. In fact, most of the Chinese contractors started as apprentices and rose from the bottom to become successful contractors. More Bumiputeras should be encouraged to work as apprentices in construction sites. This is a necessary good practice to produce really good Bumiputera contractors.

The role of trade schools

There should be more trade schools and more Bumiputeras should be encouraged to learn construction skills like carpentry, welding, plumbing, bricklaying, etc. Very soon, skilled tradesmen will be able to earn more than degree holders as is the case in Australia or England.

The government should build more trade schools and not hesitate to offer scholarships to Bumiputeras to be trained in these trade schools. Presently, the construction industry is not short of engineers but it is very short of skilled workers and supervisors. If more Bumiputeras are properly trained in various crafts and blue collar skills, some of them will go on to become good contractors.

Time and more time

They say Rome was not built in a day. It is easier to produce engineers, doctors and other professionals than to produce efficient and competitive contractors who do not need government financial aid. Just giving out lucrative contracts to Bumiputeras is not the answer; in fact it is counter-productive as it simply makes them more inefficient and less competitive.

IJM Corporation Bhd has taken more than 40 years to attain a competitive level of competence. The record shows that IJM has secured on competitive tenders five toll road concessions in India. Three are currently in operation and two are under construction. The total length of the roads exceeds 1,000 kilometres, longer than our North-South Highway.

In addition, IJM completed a toll bridge in Kolkata and sold its interest for RM65 million profit after a short period of three years. IJM is also a very reputable LRT builder, having to date completed 15km of the elevated sections of the New Delhi Metro and it was recently awarded another 8km.

Based on open competitive tender, IJM won the contract to build the tallest building, a prominent future landmark for the Delhi Municipality, in New Delhi.

It is an indictment of our system that IJM is able to compete internationally for contracts but yet is required to work as a sub-contractor to Bumiputera companies on the North-South Highway in our own country.

Conclusion: Half-baked contractors are not in our national interest

Contracting is one of the most, if not the most, difficult business and it takes a very long time to produce competent contractors.

It is very dangerous to quickly produce half-baked ones as they will soon find themselves in financial difficulties and require bailouts. The bankruptcy record shows that a large number of debtors are Bumiputera contractors with many of them unable to pay back the loans given by government-controlled financial institutions.

The government must change its methods and policies which have proven unworkable. There is no urgency in producing more Bumiputera contractors as many of the key industries e.g. the banks, plantations, motor vehicles, taxis, rice etc are already under the control of Bumiputeras.

Our government must not be narrowly communalistic and should make use of all the groups, irrespective of race, that are more efficient in the contracting business.

Giving out contracts without a full tender process is akin to corruption. I urge the government to stop this corrupt practice and to utilize the savings from these enormous sums to implement the options suggested above.

----------------------

The Great Malaysian Brain Drain

JULY 11 – There is a boy I know who scored 10 A1s. His mother is a primary school teacher and Andrew has two younger brothers. His father, a civil servant, had already passed on by the time the son sat SPM in 2006.

Armed with his excellent result, Andrew applied for a scholarship to study mechanical engineering. The government rejected his application. Petronas rejected his application too. Can you imagine how disappointed and frustrated he was?

As soon as I learned of Andrew’s difficulty, I offered him financial assistance to do accountancy in Utar. He has been scoring top marks in every exam to earn a scholarship from the university. Although Andrew is now exempted from paying fees, I still bank him RM400 a month to cover cost of living.

I have given assistance and allowances to more than 40 poor students to study in Utar in Kampar, Perak. Andrew is typical of their calibre; he prefers to get what is his due on merit, and his university has seen fit to waive his fees.

On my part, I expect nothing from those that I’ve supported except for them in future to help young people in similar circumstances, and to hope that they will all stay back in Malaysia so that they can lend their talents to building up our nation.

There are others with deeper pockets who have extended a helping hand to our youngsters. One of them offers the cost of school and exam fees, hostel accommodation, RM5,800 a year for expenses, RM1,200 settling-in allowance, and transport/air ticket. Furthermore, the recipient is not bonded. In other words, the giver asks for nothing back.

I’m talking about the pre-university Asean scholarship extended to Malaysians by ‘the little red dot’ Singapore.

Of course, Singapore is not doing it for purely altruistic reasons. The country is giving these much coveted Asean scholarships to build up her national bank of talent.

Some Malaysians accuse them of ‘poaching’ the creme de la creme of our youngsters. I don’t look at it as poaching. Their far-sighted government is doing it in their national interest.

And why not? Singapore can afford it. It has three times our GDP per capita. On another comparative note, the GDP per capita of Taiwan and South Korea are 2.5 times and double ours respectively. Before the NEP’s introduction in 1970, the four countries were at parity.

The big question is why are we surrendering our assets which Malaysian parents have nurtured but the state neglected?

Tens of thousands of young Malaysians have left our shores on the Asean scholarship. I am not sure if Singapore is willing to give out the figure.

But I am pretty sure the Malaysian authorities do not give two hoots about this, whatever number they may have arrived at. If they do, there seems to be no policy change to stem the outflow.

Malaysia is optimistically indifferent to the continuous brain drain, little caring that it is detrimental to our aspiration of becoming a developed country (I hate to say this) like Singapore.


Behaving like a failed state

Consider this startling statistic: There are more Sierra Leonean doctors working in hospitals in the city of Chicago than in their own homeland. More Malawian nurses in Manchester than in Malawi. Africa’s most significant export to Europe and the United States is trained professionals, not petroleum, gold and diamond.

The educated African migration is definitely retarding the progress of every country in Africa. Today, one in three African university graduates, and 50,000 doctoral holders now live and work outside Africa. Sixty-four per cent of Nigerians in the USA has one or more university degrees.

If we carry out a study, we are likely to find a very large number of non-Malay graduates emigrating to Singapore, Australia and other countries that is proportionately similar to the African exodus.

However the compulsion is different, seeing as how some African countries are war-torn and famished, which is certainly not the case with Malaysia.

The push factors for our own brain drain lie in NEP policy and this needs to be addressed with urgency.


State Ideology: Be grateful you’re Malaysian

Try putting yourself in the shoes of an 18-year-old. This young Malaysian born in 1991 is told that Umno was very generous in granting citizenship to his non-Malay forefathers in 1957. Thus as a descendant of an immigrant community – one should be forever grateful and respect the “social contract”.

Gratitude is demanded by the state while little is reciprocated. Under the NEP – and some say this policy represents the de facto social contract – every single Vice Chancellor of every single Malaysian public university is Malay.

Promotion prospects for non-Malay lecturers to full professorship or head of department are very dim, hence we have the dichotomy of non-Malays predominant in private colleges while correspondingly, the academic staff of public institutions proliferate with Malays.

The civil service is staffed predominantly by Malays, too, and overwhelmingly in the top echelons. The government-linked corporations have been turned into a single race monopoly.

Hence is it any surprise that almost all the scholarships offered by government and GLCs seem to be reserved for Malays?

Youngsters from the minority communities see that Malays are the chosen ones regardless of their scholastic achievement and financial position. Some are offered to do a Master although they did not even apply (but the quota is there to be filled, so these disinterested Malays are approached).


Our lesson today is ...

How the government apparatus conducts itself and the consequences of its policy implementation will upset an individual’s innate sense of justice.

The government pays about RM1.8 billion in annual salaries to teachers. A child is taught moral studies in class but he learns in life that adults condone and conspire to immorality by perpetuating the unfairness and injustice which impacts on Malaysia’s young.

On the other hand, the favoured group is given more than their just desserts without either merit or need. When one is bred to think that privilege is only his rightful entitlement, we would not expect this young person to pay back to society in return.

Our Malaysian education system has been flip-flopped, pushed and pulled this way and that until standards dropped to alarming levels. The passing mark for subjects in public exams have fallen notoriously low while the increasing number of distinctions have risen fatuously high with SPM students notching 14As, 17As and 21As.

With top scorers aplenty, there will not be enough scholarships to go around now that the Education Ministry has decided to put a cap on the SPM, limiting takers to 10 subjects.


The human factor

It’s unrealistic that the education system can be effectively overhauled. Even tweaking one aspect of it, such as the language switch for Math and English, created havoc.

It’s not that our educational framework is so bad as, after all, a lot of study and planning did go into it.

It’s only when the politicians dictate from on high and overrule the better judgment of the educationists – Dr Mahathir Mohamad being case in point – that we slide deeper into the doldrums.

The politicisation of education and the hijacking of the country’s educational agenda has clearly cost us heavily in terms of policy flip-flops and plummeting standards, and the loss of a good part of our young and talented human resources.

Matters become worse when Little Napoleons too take it upon themselves to interfere with teachers. For instance, the serial number assigned candidates when they sit public exams. Why is a student’s race encoded in the number? What does his ethnicity have to do with his answer script?

There is further suspicion that the stacks of SPM papers are not distributed to examiners entirely at random (meaning ideally examiners should be blind to which exam centres the scripts they’re marking have originated from).

A longstanding complaint from lecturers is that they are pressured to pass undergrads who are not up to the mark, and having to put up with mediocre ones who believe they are ‘A’ material after being spoilt in mono-racial schools.

Letting teachers do their job properly and allowing them to grade their students honestly would arrest the steep erosion of standards.

And, unless we are willing to be honest brokers in seeking a compromise and adjustment, the renewed demonising of vernacular schools is merely mischievous.

Either accept their existence or integrate the various types of schools.

But are UiTM and its many branch campuses throughout the length and breadth of the country, Mara Junior Science Colleges and the residential schools willing to open their doors to all on the basis of meritocracy if Chinese, Tamil, and not forgetting religious schools, were abolished? Not open to a token few non-Bumiputera but genuinely open up and with the admission numbers posted in a transparent manner.

Finally, there are teachers genuinely passionate about their profession. There are promising teachers fresh out of training college who are creative and capable of inspiring their students. It’s not only Form 5 students who have been demoralised. Teachers are human capital that we seem to have overlooked in the present controversy.


Conclusion: Ensuring fairness for the future well-being of our young

A segment of Johoreans cross the Causeway daily to attend school in Singapore. Many continue their tertiary education in Singapore which has among the top universities in the world. Eventually, they work in Singapore and benefit Singapore.

Ask around among your friends and see who hasn’t got a child or a sibling who is now living abroad as a permanent resident. I can’t really blame them for packing up and packing it in, can you?

It’s simply critical at this juncture that we don’t let our kids lose hope and throw in the towel.

The system might be slow to reform but mindsets at least can be changed easier.

It starts with the teachers, the educationists and the people running the education departments and implementing the policies.

Please help Malaysian youngsters realise their full potential. Just try a little fairness first. – cpiasia.net


Note on the Author

I am a 76-year-old chartered civil engineer and one of the founders of the three larger construction companies listed in Bursa Malaysia. These are Gamuda Bhd, Mudajaya Group Bhd, and IJM Corporation Bhd.

I was a member of the Board of Engineers, Malaysia for three terms. I was also on the Sirim Board responsible in writing the Malaysian standard specifications for cement and concrete. In addition, I was the Secretary General of Master Builders Association, Malaysia for nine years.

These days, I am completely retired. My intention in writing this article is honourable. Many people may not like reading what I have written and the truth may be difficult to accept. Nevertheless, this is my considered analysis for the benefit of my country, the Bumiputera contractors and the construction industry.

Grand Prix d'Horlogerie de Genève, 2009 edition



























I am not exactly a huge fan of watches but I like them. The Zeitwerk looked extremely fetching. If you cannot match the watch images to the prize winners below, you are not a fan of watches.

The winners of the Grand Prix d'Horlogerie de Genève, 2009 edition.

Press release

The 9th annual editon of the "Grand Prix d'Horlogerie de Genève" rolled out the red carpet on Saturday, the 14th of November, 2009 at the "Grand ThĂ©Ă¢tre" the facade of which was specially illuminated for the event by the reknown Zurich artist, Gerry Hofstetter. This International Grand Prix rewards each year the best watchmaking creations. Its mission is to encourage creativity and to participate in the discovery of new talent. During the evening, eleven awards were attributed, with the prestigious “Aiguille d'Or” award going to the Lange Zeitwerk watch of A. Lange & Söhne.

Before an audience of more that 1500, Christian LĂ¼scher et Natacha Wenger, the two masters of ceremony, made their entry and welcomed all the guests.

Mr. Manuel Tornare, Executive Counsellor of the City of Geneva and co-president of the Grand Prix d'Horlogerie of Geneva, first warmly thanked all those who contribute to the development of the Horology world. After this address, the ceremony was opened by of a charismatic watchmaking industry player, Laurent Picciotto, founder of the Chronopassion boutique in Paris. During this evening, he shared with us his passion when presenting the highlights of each timepiece being rewarded.

The most prestigious award of all, the Grand Prize of “L'Aiguille d'Or”, went to the Lange Zeitwerk watch of A. Lange & Söhne. Francois-Paul Journe, laureat of the 2008 edition, symbolically transmitted the precious trophy to Walter Lange and Jerzy Schaper. This watch is a clear sign of the reconquest of the fame of A. Lange & Söhne and illustrates the vision of GĂ¼nther BlĂ¼mlein who had given a boost to the brand with Walter Lange, 4th generation of the Lange dynasty.

The Special Jury Prize crowned this year a exceptional personality of the horology world, Dr Ludwig Oechslin, Director of the International Museum of Horology of La Chaux de Fond. Very surprised and honoured of this prize, Dr Ludwig Oechslin evoked the “miracle” of horology and the mechanical challenge represented by its continuous movements similar small enclaves of eternity.

The famous Public Prize, as for it, was attributed to Meccanico dG no 3 of de Grisogono. As mentioned by Laurent Picciotto, this watch with its double analogic and digital display “ is much more complex than it seems to be, what the public seems to fully understand”. Fawaz Gruosi warmly thanked his colleagues and retailers who have had the force to continue the adventure. This Prize of the Public was by internet voted on web site www.worldtempus.com and by the visitors to the traveling exhibition presenting the 62 pre-selected watches by the jury of the “Grand Prix d’Horlogerie de Genève”. As a reminder, this touring exposition started in Singapore in September as part of the "Living in Style" event. The exposition then made a stop in Zurich on the Bahnhofstrasse, then to Geneva at UBS ( Corraterie) where the watches are now on display until November 20.

Those persons who voted for their favorite watch automatically participated in the draw to win a prestigious timepiece. We were pleasantly surprised to see Vincent Perez on the "Grand ThĂ©Ă¢tre" stage to draw the winning entry for a magnificent Vulcain brand watch. Vincent Perez made an analogy between the world of cinema and that of horology in quoting that a successful film can be likened to the work of a goldsmith.

The Sports watch prize is awarded to the Richard Mille diver’s watch RM 025. The 25th reference of this brand, which knows how to surprise, gave new direction with a round case. Richard Mille did not hide his pleasure and declared “when you win, you feel really good”.

The Men’s watch prize is accorded to the Jules Audemars watch with Audemars Piguet escapement of Audemars Piguet. Philippe Merck, director general, expressed his thanks to the team of genius’ that created this watch, representing as it does, according to him, the spirit of all antique chronographs, and this particularly touched him.

The Ladies watch prize was awarded to the Limelight Twice watch of Piaget, a reversible bracelet wristwatch where the polishing of the setted parts is particularly remarkable. Philippe Leopold Metzger is very proud of this prize but his greatest pride, in these difficult times is to have maintained his full team “who is responsible for the beauty and grandeur of this brand”.

The Design watch prize is attributed to the Opus 9 of Harry Winston, a design watch but nevertheless complex with its two sliding diamond chains which indicate the hours and minutes. Tom O’Neill, CEO of the brand, invited two long-time partners, Eric Giroud, designer, and Jean-Marc Wiederrecht, watchmaker, to join him on stage to share this success together.

The Complicated watch prize was given to Double Tourbillon Technique of Greubel Forsey. Stephen Forsey, Co-founder of the brand, expressed all his gratitude to his team and underlined that all the Greubel Forsey codes have been expressed in this tourbillon.

The Jewellery watch prize was attributed to the One Million $ Black Caviar Bang of Hublot, a watch that symbolizes the fusion of jewellery and watchmaking. Jean-Claude Biver received the prize modestly in remembering that the success must be shared and communicated.

The Best Watchmaker prize this year is awarded to Anthony Randall, brilliant English watchmaker as acknowledgement of the totality of his work.

p/s the Zeitwerk is priced currently btw $54,000-$76,000;the Jules Audemars Chronometre $132,000; de Grisogono Meccanico dg3 priceless (very limited edition only 177 made); Gruebel Forsey double tourbillon technique $400,000.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Ess'kue Me, Mister Liu!!!


























During the recent APEC meeting in Singapore, Liu Mingkang, China's chief banking regulator, took a cheap shot at the US and Obama when he remarked that the US Federal Reserve is fueling speculative investments and endangering global recovery through loose monetary policy. Why I think that was a cheap shot - even my blog has been saying that for the longest time. The policies Liu was refering to were the weak USD, massive liquidity and currency printing, and low interest rates by the US. Liu basically said some standard knowledge: "The US Fed is boosting speculative investments in stock and property markets and will pose new, real and insurmountable risks to the global economy."

Mr. Liu, what do you expect the Fed or Obama to do??? Raise interest rates in the US while property prices, corporate spending and empoyment are still pretty weak??? To criticise the US is so easy. Hallo... you want to talk about bubbles, just look at China's massive expansion in dubious loans over the last 10 months - now that's a bubble as well.

Everybody do not want the financial crisis to happen but it has. How you work together to revive the global economy is more important, rather than criticising one another's policies. Every government is most concerned about saving jobs as it could derail the broader economy for a long time if left unchecked. The underlying rationale is to prevent social unrest, which could spell the end of many governments during times of crisis. Everybody has their own turf to mend first, only then can they work together to bring the global economy out of the woods.

How can the US seriously have a firm or strong USD now??? It needs to be more competitive, it needs to adjust its purchasing power in light of the massive amount of USD being printed, it needs to attract investments into its businesses and assets by having a lower USD - is that wrong? How in the hell is Obama going to justify having a firm USD in current times - yea, make it more attractive for US companies to ship jobs abroad, make US products a lot more expensive. Come on Mr. Liu, think before you speak, or rather stand in the other person's shoes before speaking. What about the massive China's stimulus program, isn't that easy money as well?

As to whether the US monetary and fiscal policies will lead to another global asset bubble, that will take some guess work. As things go, yes, we are headed for one, but we have yet to see how the major central bankers act further down the road. If they behave responsibly and keep selling bonds (buying back liquidity or soaking up liquidity) at a gradual pace, the asset bubble scenario may be averted. The flip side of it is when they do soak up liquidity, you will see asset prices correcting - I guess the strategy is to do it gently and in step with market mood swings. Mr. Liu, you think only you understand that the USD carry trade result in speculation???..., I am sure all central bankers know that, even the central bankers of Mali know that - just work together with other central bankers and stop spewing unnecessary jibes to win brownie points. You can criticise, but offer solutions lah, let's see how and what you would propose to do if your were in Bernanke's shoes.

You can criticise the USD carry trade (borrowing in USD and speculating in foreign currencies, stocks and other assets) but that is beyond the scope of the Fed or Obama. Plus market movements or capital flows may not be long term, it may be shifting trends, you cannot simply manipulate short term monetary or fiscal policy for the sake of controlling what might reall be short term market trends. There will come a time when markets will think the USD has gone too low and the USD carry trade will unwind by itself. Do not jump around like a mad dog over normal course of events when currencies are realigning. Makes me think you not fit enough to be China's banking regulator.


p/s photos: Han Hyo Joo

Why I Like Supportive International Holdings




If you mention Supportive International Holdings, most investors would ask if they were listed or if they were recently listed ... or you'd think they were in the undergarments business. This used to be a counter called SDKM Fibers Wires & Cables which started in Mesdaq before moving to the Main Board in May 2008. However their usual business suffered and had to be resuscitated by realigning their business. This brought about the reverse takeover exercise by Supportive Technology Sdn Bhd (ST) in February 2008.

The company, which was founded by Lee Kuang Shing in 1994, started off as a plastic components manufacturer. The founder’s family (shareholders) comprises of Lee
Kuang Shing, Tan Siew Hong, and Khaw Hooi Huang. Since then, it has diversified into manufacturing and sale home theater systems and wooden/plastic consumer durables (kitchenware, toys, etc) or consumer
‘light’ durables (CLD). ST’s purchase consideration was RM197m, which SDKM settled with issuance of 178m new SDKM shares (issue price of RM1.00 per share) and RM19m cash to ST. This resulted in a reverse acquisition as ST emerged as the group’s major shareholder. Name of company was then changed from SDKM to Supportive International Holdings.

The group’s total product range includes manufacturing and sale of home theater systems, audio/video/telephony products and cords, intercoms, as well as, plastic and wooden CLD. Not terribly exciting products but steady business. They have a strong list of major customers that include SONY, KenWood, Pioneer, Onkyo, Yamaha , JVC, Panasonic, IKEA, etc. OEM customers tend to have demanding requirements ; like timing of delivery, ability to adapt to latest designs quickly and high quality control (QC) standards - so far so good. It has been supplying products to the Panasonic Group for the past 11 years because of ST’s strong execution capabilities.

Over the last 4 years, ST’s revenue from the Panasonic Group accounted for 88% to 92% of sales. On the flip side, this also illustrates ST’s ability to maintain strong ties; an asset for SIH. Thus, SIH has been actively reducing dependence on the Panasonic Group by securing new customers, like SONY and IKEA. The group can continue diversify its clientele by tapping into SDKM’s existing audio products’ clients, such as Kenwood and Pioneer.

Catalyst #1: Basically the new owners have never seen daylight for their shares as the price dwindled down almost immediately owing to the timing of the financial crisis and went as low as 0.595. Technically speaking the share has never been higher than its 52 week high of 0.96 except yesterday. I like the volume build up and the surge past its 52 week high a lot. An indication of some corporate action or acquisition is likely.

9-Nov-09 0.85 0.87 0.84 0.85 -0.005 1,800
10-Nov-09 0.88 0.88 0.84 0.84 -0.005 1,734
11-Nov-09 0.86 0.90 0.86 0.90 0.060 4,710
12-Nov-09 0.91 0.93 0.88 0.91 0.010 15,493
13-Nov-09 0.92 0.94 0.92 0.94 0.025 2,129
16-Nov-09 0.95 1.03 0.95 1.03 0.095 29,252
This is the kind of price / volume action that I like (open, high, low, close, change, volume).

Catalyst #2: SIH completed the SPA to acquire Welcome Properties Sdn Bhd (WP) for RM10m on 4/2/09. Consequently, the group will recognize RM9.5m negative goodwill. WP owns the 48.6ac mixed development project, called Aman Bayu, in Teluk Air Tawar, Butterworth, Penang. Normally I would frown on companies suddenly going into property but to me this counter needs another layer of business to parlay its bread and butter earnings. Typically, property developers can reap 10%-22% net margins compared to the E&E sector’s 1%-5%. The sea-fronting land fronts Penang Island is highly attractive, and is adjacent to Taman Air Molek (established mid to high end residential development) while being accessible via the new Butterworth Outer Ring Road. The land has an NBV of RM35m or c.RM16psf. The RM358m GDV gated and guarded community project will consist of mid to high end landed residential and condominium developments, as well as, some commercial content. The project is expected to yield a 30% gross development profit margin and is expected to be completed in mid 2012.

Lee Kuan Shing said its RM360mil Aman Bayu project in Butterworth would contribute about 30% to revenue this year. They have sold half of the 100 three-storey terraced houses priced about RM350,000, which were launched early this year. The second and third phases, comprising 250 semi-detached houses and bungalows, will be launched next year.

Catalyst #3: Copycat? - Mah Sing started off in the plastic injection molding business in 1965 with listing status in 1992. Since then, it ventured into its first property development project in Johor Bahru (Sri Pulai Perdana). As property earnings became Mah Sing's biggest contributor, the company was reclassified as “properties” in 2000. Its still a long way off but it looks increasingly likely that ST is adopting the Mah Sing's blueprint for longer term success. To be recognised as a property player, the company will need to grow its landbank to at least 1,000 ac. Look for possible land acquisitions in the near future.

The net profit for year ended Jan 2009 was a smart RM12.9m on revenue of RM90.8m, not bad considering the turmoil in broader markets over the past 16 months. Paid up: 218.5m shares. If it stayed as an OEM in E&E products, the margins are thin and it would take a quantum leap to get to the next level. Having said that, its business is steady and the clients long term support is evident, showing they are doing the right things operationally. For me, their property project is attractive and is the start of the next leg up. If you wait for their land bank acquisitions, the price would have flown by then. It is by no means and ultra exciting, or exceedingly well managed company - its a steady company, adding an attractive new layer to its earnings, and could win over institutional holders over the near term.

The attractive RM358m GDV property project may bring about a gross profit of RM107m, halve that to a net basis you still have RM53.5m. Take that over 3 years, that is still a healthy whack when you consider its existing net profits of RM12.9m a year.


The above were views on stocks and sectors that I like, not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

p/s photos: Rachel Kum

Monday, November 16, 2009

Big & Juicy (Or Is It Dicey) IPOs - Sands China & UC Rusal



Sands China, the Macau casino operations owned by Las Vegas Sands (LVS), yesterday kicked off the roadshow for its Hong Kong initial public offering with the aim of raising between HK$19.41 billion and HK$25.96 billion ($2.5 billion to $3.4 billion). The launch came on the same day that China Minsheng Banking also launched its $3.6bn IPO, which looks set to become the largest Hong Kong listing so far this year.

The institutional tranche for Sands Asia, accounting for 90 percent of the shares, has apparently been "multiple times" oversubscribed. The Macau unit of billionaire Sheldon Adelson's casino company will offer locally 10 percent of its 1.87 billion shares at between HK$10.38 and HK$13.88. It costs around HK$5,608 for a lot of 400 shares. Sands China will spend 42 percent of the net proceeds on repaying shareholder loans and inter-company payables, and one-fourth on the completion of Parcels 5 and 6 in Cotai.

Michael Leven, chief operating officer of Las Vegas Sands, said as a growth company, Sands China requires a certain amount of earnings to be retained to develop the Cotai project. Sands China will seriously consider more rapid growth or dividend issuance only after the monetization strategy kicks in. Chairman Sheldon Adelson said Sands China will sell the non-core assets such as shopping malls and serviced apartments. The capitalization rate on malls will increase as they take time to benefit from full hotel operations. He said net debt will drop from 2.86 times to around 2.3 times on the offering day while the full operation of Parcels 5 and 6 in 2012 will further bring its leverage to below one time.bankers argue that Sands China could be the ticket.

The casino operator, which is owned by Las Vegas gaming magnate Sheldon Adelson and holds one of six casino licences in Macau, already controls about 30% of the mass market and is raising money that will go partly towards the re-starting of a development project on the Cotai Strip that was halted last year as the parent company was running out of cash. According to syndicate analysts, the company is also in a prime position to capitalise on any growth in retail spending by Chinese visitors to Macau as it operates about 74% of all grade-A retail space available in the former Portuguese colony.

As I considered the Wynn Macau offering to be an avoid, and a purer gaming play, hence my view on Sands China is even bleaker - although I think their Marina Bay unit is more attractive if you can hive that out. Big offerings like this are market-timed vehicles, it can cause you to lose a lot of money (e.g. going 10%-20% below IPO) if you get caught in a wrong market mood when its actually listed. But at the same time can get you 10% (looks to be the topside considering the size of the offering) upside if the market mood stays good.

A more combustible and heady IPO, closely watched by all foreign media, is the listing of UC RUSAL, a vehicle owned by one of Russia's favoured sons, Oleg Deripaska. Well, they can't list in Russia for now owing to the market sentiment there. Surprisingly, they bypassed London as well, which was considered as a natural for a company like this.

Before a planned $2 billion Hong Kong IPO in December, the world's largest aluminum producer UC RUSAL is close to a deal to restructure $7.4 billion in debt to foreign banks, according to The Wall Street Journal. Controlled by Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, the aluminum producer is expected to announce the deal as early as next week, which will allow it seven years to repay $16 billion of debt. HK regulators are expected to give the green light to RUSAL's listing on November 19.

United Company RUSAL is the world leader in the aluminum industry sector, implementing the full production cycle from the extraction of bauxites to the manufacture of primary aluminum and alloys. The company has operations on five continents and in 19 countries around the world. The market share of the company encompasses approximately 12% of the entire global output of primary aluminum and 15% of the world’s alumina production, the necessary raw materials for manufacturing.

United Company RUSAL was founded in March 2007 by the merger and consolidation of RUSAL, SUAL, and the alumina assets of the Swiss company Glencore. Currently the company is comprised of 15 aluminum smelters, 12 alumina refineries, 7 bauxite mines, 3 foil rolling mills, and power-generating assets. UC RUSAL employs more than 100,000 persons at within its structure.

The Russian billionaire is in the final stages of agreeing a restructuring deal with foreign creditors on $7.3bn in debts, a vital precondition for the initial public offering valued at between $1bn and $2.5bn to go ahead. But even if the tycoon reaches agreement in time for a key November 19 hearing at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, he must still race to win creditor committee approval from the more than 70 banks by the end of November and then market the sale to investors in the two weeks left before most leave for Christmas in mid-December.

It would be the first time a big Russian company has listed on the HK bourse, but they should perhaps first ask why Mr Deripaska is not going straight to London - long the natural harbour for large commodities groups seeking funds on the market. What is the attraction of HK, if not the lure of easy money and bucket loads of liquidity and enormous interest from China over resource plays? All adds up to a recipe for a big truckload of bad things waiting to happen - too eager, too much backslapping, too many wink-wink nods, ...

Could it have anything to do with his problems in the UK, where he is facing legal action, including a suit in the high court from a former partner in Rusal claiming massive compensation? Clearly, the uncertainty surrounding a case that could potentially cost Rusal up to $4bn is mathematical sum that is hard to put inside research reports. The last-minute withdrawal of Goldman Sachs as a lead adviser on the IPO underlines the risks surrounding what would be one of the biggest offerings of the year. Goldman Sachs withdrew as a lead adviser just one week before the company filed its initial application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 2, because it said it needed more time to familiarise itself with the deal, people close to the situation said. That should be the key already, where in the world would Goldman Sachs relinquish the right to lead a massive IPO if not for "graver concerns".

Mr Deripaska, once Russia’s richest man, has been dogged by issues surrounding his past partnerships in the Russian aluminium industry in the 1990s, a time when it was racked by crime. He is being sued by one former partner, Michael Cherney, in London’s High Court for a stake in his UC Rusal; Mr Deripaska contends he owes nothing to Mr Cherney, who he claims was not a partner but ran a protection racket to extort money out of his company. Mr Cherney denies any ties to organised crime.

IPOs being IPOs, in HK the IPO market is in full swing, issues are very huge, they suck up a lot of liquidity - anything untoward happening to just one could derail the overall markets for s sustained period, and will affect capital flows negatively for the rest of Asia. Enough said ....


p/s photo: Fiona Xie Wan Yu

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Marketocracy Portfolio Updated - November 14, 2009


























On a year to date basis, the S&P 500 recorded a 23.67% return, while the Nasdaq secured 37.47% and the Dow notched a 17.02% return. My Marketocracy portfolio obtained a 66.3% return.


Previous update:
http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2009/10/marketocracy-portfolio-update-2-october.html

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2009/09/marketocracy-portfolio-update-10.html

As mentioned before, the objective of the portfolio was to beat the S&P 500 consistently over time. Modern finance subscribe to the theory that over time stocks offer superior returns - that being the case, as long as you outperform the benchmark index, you will register superior long term performance. Hence it is useful to look at the performance relative to the S&P 500. Over the last 12 months, the outperformance was by 50.96%.

The Salvador Fund (SMF) line in orange. The m100 line is the aggregate performance tracking the top 100 funds in Marketocracy. The comparison is stark but to be fair, this portfolio will need another 1.5 years before we can safely say its a superior long term performer.

Value: $1,198,431.95 Cash: $106,031.15 Stock Value: $1,092,400.80 NAV: $11.98


graph of fund vs. market indexes
SMF m100 S&P 500 DJIA Nasdaq
left curve recent returns vs. major indexes right curve



MTD QTD YTD
SMF 4.39% -3.53% 66.30%
S&P 500 5.66% 3.70% 23.67%
DOW 5.74% 5.75% 17.02%
Nasdaq 6.00% 2.14% 37.47%


recent returns right curve


RETURNS
Last Week 3.61%
Last Month -6.72%
Last 3 Months 2.01%
Last 6 Months 21.32%
Last 12 Months 74.06%
Last 2 Years N/A
Last 3 Years N/A
Last 5 Years N/A
Since Inception 19.84%
(Annualized) 14.86%
S&P500 RETURNS
Last Week 2.33%
Last Month 0.30%
Last 3 Months 9.47%
Last 6 Months 25.18%
Last 12 Months 23.09%
Last 2 Years N/A
Last 3 Years N/A
Last 5 Years N/A
Since Inception -10.08%
(Annualized) -7.81%
RETURNS VS S&P500
Last Week 1.28%
Last Month -7.02%
Last 3 Months -7.45%
Last 6 Months -3.85%
Last 12 Months 50.96%
Last 2 Years N/A
Last 3 Years N/A
Last 5 Years N/A
Since Inception 29.93%
(Annualized) 22.67%



left curve alpha/beta vs. S&P500 right curve


Alpha 32.05%
Beta 1.16
R-Squared 0.79





[download spreadsheet]


Symbol Price Shares Value Portion of Fund Inception Return
BDD $13.74 5,000 $68,716.00 5.73% 43.95%
MGM $10.75 9,500 $102,125.00 8.52% 43.85% Details
STAR $34.03 3,500 $119,105.00 9.94% 42.41% Details
F $8.41 10,000 $84,100.00 7.02% 31.03% Details
PLD $13.60 8,118 $110,404.80 9.21% 23.28% Details
QSII $62.66 1,500 $93,990.00 7.84% 21.29% Details MIDDLE
GE $15.66 4,000 $62,640.00 5.23% 5.74%
NYB $11.52 6,000 $69,120.00 5.77% 5.15%
JEC $43.95 1,500 $65,925.00 5.50% 5.14%
NVDA $13.56 5,000 $67,800.00 5.66% 1.53%
LOW $21.85 3,500 $76,475.00 6.38% 0.46% Details
JNPR $26.15 2,000 $52,300.00 4.36% -1.18% Details
KBW $26.60 4,500 $119,700.00 9.99% -2.03% Details





p/s photos: Jessie Chiang Yu Chen

Friday, November 13, 2009

Why I Like Inch Kenneth




Ever since they gave out the 50 to 1 bonus issue, I have considered Inch Kenneth as a very under-managed company. I mean, seriously, nobody regards it as an out and out plantations company. I was waiting for some sort of indications that their land sale and property development plans were starting to take off. It was listless around 30-35 sen for the longest time, and it had to take the day I was flying back to KL to shoot up from 32 sen to 53 sen. By the time I landed, I thought I missed the boat, but the price has fallen back to decent levels to start a position. I think anything under 50 sen would be a lot of comfort on a 3-6 month view for my anticipated 30% return.

In the Annual Report dated Dec 2008, the Chairman stated: "Our planned sale of the Bangi land is still on track and we hope that it can be confirmed within the first half of 2009. Once this is concluded, we will then be able to focus on the expansion of our plantation sector either into Sabah, Sarawak, Indonesia or other ASEAN countries."

Catalyst #1: Inch Kenneth has converted its 600-acre piece of plantation land in Bangi in 2007. This marks the successful conversion of its entire plantation land bank for mixed development purpose and brings the company one step closer to realising its land bank unlocking strategy. Its 350 acres of plantation land in Kajang had received the conversion approval back in 2001. The group expects to sell the 600-acre Bangi land for an estimated RM250-300m, which is equivalent to RM11.50 psf on the high end. Based on this price, the company could realise a windfall gain of RM144m as the land is carried in the company’s books at just RM6 psf. With 420m shares, the market cap at the share price of 0.44 = RM184.8m. People, the windfall gain is nearly 80% of the existing market cap!!!!!!!!!

Catalyst #2: The 350-acre land in Kajang has been earmarked for the development of a township project and will be Inch Kenneth’s maiden property development foray. Although the company’s lack of experience in property development is a cause for caution, it will be doing this with joint-venture partners on this front. Herein lies the key, the full name of the company is Inch Kenneth Kajang Rubber. Kajang... 10 years ago, nobody would bat an eyelid, today, 350-acre in Kajang means a lot. The estimated gross development value of the township is slated to be between RM1.2bn-RM1.5bn.

The sharp jump was probably due to certain "sale being done" and the launching of the property project. Despite the sharp jump, its still very very cheap no matter how you look at it. If you sit on a high NAV and your share price is at a deep discount, it will stay that way if nothing is done to unlock the values. Inch Kenneth is selling the land and launching the property project - what more do you want, if this is not unlocking, I don't know what is. Last known NAV is RM1.15, and that is being conservative. There is no need to mention much about its diversion into tourism, its a safe and small business for now. How I wish there was a rich backer for me to take over this company, there is so much value to unlock - if its there to be taken over, a new owner would easily pay up to 80-85 sen per share for control.

The above were views on stocks and sectors that I like, not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.


p/s photo: Haruka Ayase

Dejavu 1993, Capital Inflow, Asian Currencies Uptrend




It looks increasingly likely that we have seen the start of an inflow of capital into Asia. The weakening USD will help prop up US shares, but may see more international investors migrating excess funds into Asia to obtain a better return over the next 6 months. This looked much like the 1993 bull run in Asia. No, before you get ahead of my views, this is not going to be the repeat of the extended 1993-1996 bull run. The last 2 months have seen what we shall refer to as the US$ carry trade - borrowing in USD to invest elsewhere in anticipation of a weaker USD down the road. This is a replication of the yen carry trade which fueled much of the liquidity sloshing around all markets in 2007.

An example is the recent upgrade by Macquarie on Malaysian markets, mainly in anticipation of a higher ringgit value over the next 24 months. They forecast the RM/US$ will hit 3.20 (+6%) by end 2010 and 3.00 (+14%) by end 2011. Gawd, I hope they are right as I can travel overseas with a fatter wallet then. In fact Macquarie said that currencies usually overshoot, so we could easily hit 20%. The two key cross-rates to watch are RM/US$ and RM/Rmb:
- Immediate 10% upside suggested by RM/Rmb cross-rate: Macquarie believe over the next two quarters, the ringgit will appreciate to its previous fixed level against the Rmb.
- Additional 5–10% upside suggested by RM/US$ cross-rate by end 2010: They expect the renminbi and Asian currencies to resume its upward appreciation against the US$ in late 2010.

Taking this tack, importers will gain the most, eg Astro and auto companies, who import from Europe and the US. Thats the view of Macquarie, my view is that auto, auto parts and protected industries should be largely ignored over the next few years. Exporters such as plantations would suffer from an effective price cut. Companies with a high proportion of offshore earnings such as Parkson (> 90% of EBITDA), MISC (> 90%), YTL Power (75%), and KNM (60%) would have lower translated earnings.

Back to the foreign capital inflow - YTD net foreign portfolio investment in equities as of November 4, 2009: Best-performers: South Korea: US$21.18 billion, India: US$14.21 billion, Taiwan: 10.87 billion; Others: Thailand: US$1.51 billion, Indonesia: US$0.77 billion, the Philippines: US$0.40 billion, Pakistan: US$0.19 billion, Vietnam: US$0.01 billion, Japan: -US$17.12 billion. Can't seem to get the Malaysian figure but it should be negative judging from the previous posting on net foreign investors holdings of Malaysian stocks. All major Asian currencies are an appreciation path thanks to improving export performance and liquidity condition. Unlike 1997-98 crisis, Asia has enough reserves to defend its currencies and dollar liquidity has improved considerably when compared to Fall 2008, although it remains tight in some countries.

Notable economist Joseph Stiglitz said, "The inflows of easy money" is posing a risk of asset bubble in Asia as "such funds are usually not long-term investments and won't be a foundation for robust growth for Asia." Yes, we are seeing these short term funds finding Asia as a nice playground, but unlike the 93-96 rally, these funds will not be here very long, so we need to watch the US$ carry trade when they start unwinding in a big way. Presently, the outlook for most Asian currencies are still good for the next 6 months, and as Macquarie pointed out, the ringgit is a great selling point, so we are "safe" for the time being.


p/s photo: Han Ga In

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Some Good Questions About Fund Managers & Owners




There are about 3,000 to 4,000 daily readers for this blog but you will find that there are not that many comments or queries. I guess part of the problem is that I do shoot down questions or queries that are not well thought out, lol... Anyway, a reader did posed some interesting questions on fund managers and company owners. I will try to answer as best I could.

Digital Investor

Hello Dali, had been following your blog quite awhile and beside writing about those stocks, maybe it is time that you reveal what fund manager trying to do in the market. Here are some of the things that we see in the market and I try to understand what they're trying to do. I had been asking around and no one seem to know why...maybe you could:

1. If you look at the daily bursa announcement, you can see that EPF will buy big qty of certain counters and sell it on the same day too or maybe few days later. Or they will sell and then buy back. In short, they're profiting from others instead of buying and hold. I dont see this happen with foreign funds investing in Bursa Malaysia. Although it is not illegal but dont you think that this is wrong way of fund management?
Comments: You will find big funds buying and selling the same shares in the same week, sometimes even in the same day. Usually, its to disguise their motives - they could be adding or selling positions. For some counters that are a bit illiquid, these funds are actually drumming up interest to offload or buy shares by being on both sides. Is it legal, its a gray area. Technically, if they pay full broke both ways and do not sell short, they are deemed OK, but a more vigilant regulator may see things differently. Is that "wrong", well that is hard to qualify, and really you cannot stop a fund from buying and selling if they pay full broke. I do agree that this gray area is more likely to be "wrong" as it helps to paint a distorted picture of the real activity behind these operations. If I was the regulator, I would keep a closer eye and try to wipe that out of the system as it affects the integrity of the market place.

2. The other "unhealthy" process happen in Bursa is blocking a particular counter price from going up or going down by parking big qty in the sell queue or buy queue. One good counter you can see this happen is with ytlpower. What is the purpose? Dont they want their share price to go up? For today, it is with Genting Malaysia, big sell and buy qty being park there and basically the price got no where to go.
Comments: Usually you can only park the shares, if you have the shares already, you certainly do not want to be caught short if these big sells get taken out. Again, you cannot stop people from parking big sizes to "deter prices from rising". Why would company owners want to do that, or it could be a substantial shareholder, or just a fund with a big position ... - they could be waiting to collect more shares, they could be "maintaining price trends" for a corporate action (rights issue, share placement, share issuance), or that they just do not think it is "time for action".
Another possibility is due to the market makers of called warrants, they have hedged positions and depending on their exposure, they may want to do that as well. Again, very legal, if you have the balls and resources, take them out, but I am sure they would be covered. To them, its not important if the shares go up or down as long as they are covered.

3. Another method is to buy and sell big qty at basically the same price. What is the purpose? Dont they hv to pay broker fees?
Comments: Same as the first question.


p/s photos: Zhou Weitong

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Mutterings On Maxis


Apple Logo maxis_logo



I tried to evade the question on Maxis, but everyone seems to be keen to find out more on Maxis. During the talk, the Maxis thing came up during Q&A time. Short answer, it will go up, possibly hold above RM6.00-6.50 for the medium term but could stay locked in that range for a long time.

a) Owners are selling 30%, no new shares issued, money going to the pockets of owners. Not necessarily a bad thing, but it goes to show that not much of reinvestment is planned. Not much reinvestment means "not much growth and excitement, and a lot less risk" - but what is Maxis if you are not buying their expertise in running telco operations, why are you paying for people who are turning into just gatekeepers, just maintaining the operations. Getting to be another dividend stock?

b) Malaysian telcos are trading at a steep premium to their regional peers. Some fund managers have said they will most likely own a smaller portion of Maxis shares in their portfolios than the stock’s actual weightage in the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI. Maxis above RM6.00 is already very pricey. However, it is likely to stay above that because the local institutions will be picking up more shares and the cornerstone institutional investors (with the exception of Fidelity) will not be selling as they "need to have sufficient exposure to a critical component of the index - as explained during my talk). So, who will be selling??? .... well, if it goes beyond RM6.50, I think even Ananda and the Saudi owners will sell in the open market.

c) Maxis is this company is a different animal now compared to seven years ago. The market is already saturated with very little room for growth regardless whether in the postpaid, prepaid or wireless broadband segment. So, no growth story, the bulk of the growth trend has been in the past, now its jockeying for market share, and usually that is largely churning and will only result in a lot of work for their respective marketing folks but the revenue will come with very thin margins. Hence, Maxis’ latest sexy offering is of course the exclusive partnership with Apple Inc.’s is a good thing but will need keep getting hits out of the park to really dent the competition.

d) The reason why I am loathed to write about Maxis is that the company made its money from the Malaysian public, and we all have had to endure a lot of "cumbersome technical glitches, capacity issues, dropped calls, etc..." When the going was good, they took it private but obviously knowing that there is likely to be an even better offer to sell Maxis to somebody else, not nice, smart biz but poor form. Now, I don't know for what reason, they choose to relist a likely "dividend counter", with such a pathetic offering to the public. Did Maxis forget who the fuck gave them the revenue and critical mass in the first place. Yes, the Maxis dealers got some, and a very limited number preferred customers did get something... what about the rest, the company was built by selling solely to Malaysians. There was no acknowledgment of that from the offering. The entire offering was passed to institutions and basically Maxis want loyal Malaysians to buy the shares from the institutions in the open market - hey, thanks!

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Back From Hols, Markets Going Along As Predicted




Markets have been behaving as expected. Funds continue to pour back into equities. As pointed out many times before, there is a lot of funds swishing around and they are being put back to work. Risk aversion is no longer an issue, coupled that with global low interest rates, funds would be damned if they cannot get higher returns. A good benchmark would be those papers we call junk bonds. OK maybe not really junk bonds but those rated B or worse. Blockbuster (the video/dvd rental company) had a lot of trouble raising funds 10 months back. In a recent offering for bonds due 2014, demand was so great that it was able to raise $675m. Granted, its a dicey company, hence the yield was an attractive 11.75%, still it showed that there was a willingness to put funds back to work, even in iffy companies. Over the last 6 months, an estimated $20bn has poured back into junk bond funds alone.

Is this healthy? Well, not really as investors start to chase for higher yields. When you consider the 11% for junk bonds, equities at present levels seem like a better play - even though stocks do look a bit pricey as well.

A better example would be the country bonds for Lithuania, Fitch has downgraded the country bonds 3 times this year alone and its GDP is expected to fall 18% this year, but last month this problematic Baltic nation was able to raise $1.5bn with a yield of 6.8%. Have investors lost their minds. I certainly view that country bond with a lot of trepidation as most of the Baltic region has a long way to go to restore confidence. Even Sri Lanka, with its civil unrest was able to raise $500m at a yield of 7.4%.

These are danger signs but also signs that a new bubble is forming. Should we all jump ship... well, you can jump ship too soon. While I see the makings of a fresh bubble, a liquidity bubble of a different kind, these events will take some time still to prick the bubble. Bottom line, things are fine but the reality is getting out of sync a bit, bears watching, its a traders market for now. Will warn further if things really get out of hand.

p/s photo: Chrissie Chau

Friday, November 06, 2009

Why I Like SALCON




This company has had a bad reput
ation for some time. Things have been changing and evolving. Salcon saw a change in major shareholders in 2005 after Naga Muhibbah, under Datuk Seri Goh Eng Toon (former Ban Hin Lee CEO) acquired a majority stake from Kumpulan Emas Bhd in several off-market transactions. Since then, management has sought to clean up its business. In 2007, Salcon pared down its stake in PalmTech to 49%, a cumbersome legacy problem.

However, corporate governance issues arose when the Group decided to acquire a stake in Oriental Capital Assurance. This decision was however voted down by its major shareholders. Management has assured that there are currently no plans to acquire any insurance businesses in the near to immediate future.

Salcon’s CEO Mr How See Hock joined the Group a few years ago after spending almost 20 years with IJM. Its Finance Director, Mr Law Woo Hock joined from Ireka Corporation.

Market Capitalisation : RM260MN

Net Gearing (as at 30 June 2009) : Net Cash

NTA (as at 30 June 2009) : RM0.65


Salcon’s water projects range from construction of water treatment plants to being a holder of foreign water concessions. Previously active in the construction of domestic water treatment plants and wastewater treatment centres, the company has in recent years expanded to China, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam. Salcon’s water related projects encompass water and wastewater turnkey investment (design, finance and construct), turnkey contracting and water asset management (O&M, NRW Control). As of FY08, its water and wastewater related earnings accounted for 95% of revenue.

Catalyst #1: New management have worked hard to turn around the image and instill professionalism operational measure. Smaller in size than Hyflux (Singapore) but trades at significant discount 10x FY10 for Salcon, almost 50% discount compared to 20x FY10 for Hyflux. Salcon's P/Book is just 0.9x while Hyflux is at 4x. Orderbook to market cap is also attractive at 6x (RM1.5b/250m) and the company is net cash.

Catalyst #2: Earnings have been on a recovery trend and growing sequentially. It is one of those stocks that have been largely ignored owing to "mis-management" in the past. New management have been working hard to rectify that. The comparison with Hyflux is not to say Salcon should be valued the same as Hyflux, but rather the disparity and gap is indicative of the "lack of following". I like these kind of stocks a lot, more and more professionals will discover the stock.

Salcon’s orderbook as of August 2009 is RM1.2BN out of which RM606mn is unbilled and expected to last 1.5 years. For the unbilled portion, around 70% are domestic based projects (Kelantan, Seremban, Sandakan non-revenue water (NRW) projects and sewerage treatment plant in Medini, Iskandar) while the balance of 30% are mainly from Vietnam and Sri Lanka. With regards to their Medini sewerage treatment plant, mgmt indicated that the contract value will likely be revised up by roughly 20% from RM94mn as the client is keen to bump up the population requirement from 400k presently to 500k

Separately, mgmt is currently tendering for more than RM1.5bn worth of new jobs. Several of these include Phase 2 of a sewerage project in Kota Kinabalu as well as new construction and O&M opportunities in India. In India, mgmt was notably upbeat stating that the country is in dire need of water infrastructure projects and the one which they are currently tendering for is quite sizable at 700MLD. Salcon is tendering together with local partner and only for construction where margins are lower. Salcon to handle the engineering, process and M&E portions while its local JV partner will do the structural and concrete portion so that capital outlay will not be so large. Salcon has also set up office in Indonesia 2 years ago but no projects yet due to the political situation there. As Salcon has no construction license in Indonesia, it will undertake construction with local partners

Salcon operates a total of 6 water concessions in China and 1 in Vietnam:


Projects

Location

Capacity

Concession period

Changle Water Treatment Plant

Shandong, China

100 MLD

50 yrs

Changle Sewage Treatment Plant

Shandong, China

20 - 40 MLD

50 yrs

Changle Raw water Transfer Project

Shandong, China

100 MLD

30 yrs

Nan An Raw Water Supply Project

Fujian, China

Phase 1 - 170 MLD

30 yrs



Phase 2 - 175 MLD


Haining Water Treatment Plant

Zhejiang, China

Phase 1 - 150 MLD

30 yrs



Phase 2 - 150 MLD


Linyi Water Treatment Plant

Shandong, China

150 MLD

30 yrs

Binh An Water Supply Scheme

HCMC, Vietnam

100 MLD

20 yrs




Source: Company


Catalyst #3: Salcon is now emerging as new stock picks by the bigger houses. It used to have only OSK and Affin following the stock. Credit Suisse have been following the stock for the past 2 years, but were caught by the 2008 downturn. They should easily pick up on Salcon as a new buy soon.

Catalyst #4: Asia water plays are few and many do not get the size needed, hence Hyflux has been the stellar stock. Salcon is now emerging from the doldrums. Considering it ook control in 2006, but had to push through the difficult 2008 period, it is coming out of the crisis nicely intact. No debt, cash positive. The gap between Hyflux and Salcon should narrow considerably. Very comfortable with my anticipated 30% up
side.

NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

p/s photos: Susu


Thursday, November 05, 2009

No, Not Lost In Space ...











Readers of this blog may have been speculating that I might have been abducted by aliens or taken away to Sg Buloh for some "gentle questioning sessions" - ... actually hopped onto a plane and have been in Sydney, still am... do not have access to the internet, so the postings will be infrequent.

Thankfully, there is the monthly asset class returns from The Capital Spectator - gives me something to talk about without too much work.

After a long period of flattish performance, commodities have started a move last month. Though it may sound silly, I think it is VERY EASY for this kind of asset class moves to turn into a wave, go long on CPO. I do think the rumour of Sime Darby selling 10% to China-interest has a high degree of credibility - and of course it is very good for Sime Darby. Though I did not like many of Sime Darby's M&A and subsequent integration plans, it is still the number one plantation company in the world. Many also may not be aware that it has been building very important port facilities and have a few very exciting long term ventures in China already. Let's just say that Sime Darby may be reinventing themselves to latch onto China as the platform for their next growth phase for the next 10 years. Yes, Sime Darby is a BUY now, no time to do a "Why I Like..." but close enough.

Curiously though, there have been more interest in bonds and relates papers last month according to the table. More significantly, the REITs have showed signs of weakness after a spectacular run for the past 3 months. This may indicate that we may have recovered from the lows, now the euphoria is over, some of these REITs are still showing tremendous leverage and debt difficulty.


p/s photos: Jocelyn Lukos


Monday, November 02, 2009

Halloween Explained

Part of the weakness in US stocks last Friday may be attributed to Citigroup's weakness. Citi's shares dipped 5% on rumours that it may still have a $10bn 4Q charge on its deferred assets. A market that has been robust will look for any excuse to correct. Bearing in mind that the markets there gained over 200 points on news that the US economy may have grown at 3.5% in the third quarter - surely things do not go from OK to so-so overnight. Btw, since when has Citi's problems been a focal point for the markets. Everyone knows that Citi has its own set of problems to deal with, plus why the worry, it has the government as a shareholder. We all also know that Citi has seen a lot of capital being decimated, written down and the need for them to raise an enormous amount of fresh capital - what's new, nobody expects Citi to be like Goldman or JP Morgan in present times, do they???

Another possible reason for the Friday sell down was probably the year end tax considerations by mutual funds whose fiscal year ended in October month end. Some fund managers may have been selling to lock tax losses. All in, people should look beyond just a dip and scare themselves silly ... look deeper to get a sense of the underlying sentiment and fundamentals.

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Scary Friday, Or Is It Just Halloween





On Thursday, the Dow went up 200 points, nobody made a fuss. The Dow went down on Friday and everybody starts asking question. I am not saying its not important, but markets do go up and down. We have to look at the actual catalyst that caused the down movement. Is it part and parcel of trading volatility or something bigger and more sinister? There is nothing sinister, its just part and parcel of a healthy robust market. The folks at Bespoke looked at the number of times the Dow went down by more than 2% on a Friday. The following Mondays saw an average decline of 0.73%, nothing much to shout about. Markets were sold down on lower consumer sentiment, apparently on the ending of the cash for clunkers program. It will take a lot more to drag down this market - e.g. another major bank failing, otherwise, it should be business as usual. The key thing from the Bespoke table, if you noticed, was that the last two Mondays saw losses of more than 2% as well - the thing to remember is that both those days were right in the midst of the financial turmoil, and during a period when VIX was rattling at very high levels. The same table can yield one level of information for some but if you look at things with a critical eye it will reveal even more information.

---------------------

Dowdown Bespoke: What an ugly day. Today marked the 142nd time since 1900 that the Dow went down at least 2% on a Friday (when the following Monday was not a holiday). On the following Monday, the Dow has averaged a decline of 0.31%, with positive returns 49% of the time. Since the bear market that started in October 2007, this has happened 6 other times (see table at right). On the following Monday, the Dow has gone down 4 out of 6 times for an average decline of 0.73%. The last two times we've had a >2% decline on Friday, the following Monday has lost 2.42% and 2.63%. Let's hope Monday's trade is a little better than that!



p/s photo: Susu (seriously... an up and coming Thai-Chinese singer)

Friday, October 30, 2009












See you tomolo ........

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Bank Negara's Monetary Policy




    After cutting rates by 1.5% during November 2008-March 2009, Bank Negara has kept interest rates unchanged starting Q2 2009. Since cutting rates too low has its risks , the central bank has focused more on improving "credit access" in the economy. Deflationary pressures, large output gap, low resource utilization and a sluggish recovery will help the central bank to remain on hold until sometime in 2010. But deflationary pressures might ease in H2 2009 due to commodity prices and fading base effects of 2008, preventing further rate cuts.

    Will Bank Negara Remain on Hold for Now?

  • October 28, 2009: Bank Negara maintained the interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 2.0% to support economic recovery since price pressure are still low.
  • BNM October Monetary Policy Statement: The current monetary policy is “appropriate” and will “support” economic activity as domestic economic conditions are improving with policy support, and inflation and inflation expectations are expected to remain “contained” in the coming months. BNM sees strong improvement in the labor market, domestic demand, financing activity and external trade, and these developments are expected to continue into 2010. Without any unexpected external impact, inflation in 2010 will turn positive, but remain “subdued”.
  • BNM sees limited impact of low interest rates and the risk of fueling asset bubbles. It is rather focusing on credit measures to improve liquidity in the financial system. Fiscal stimulus, past interest rate cuts and government and central bank credit measures are improving credit flow in the economy (especially for smaller firms) and slowing the pace of job losses.
  • The contraction in manufacturing activity and exports has eased since June 2009. The pace of economic contraction has eased since Q2 2009.
  • The recovery is expected to be very sluggish due to slow recovery of exports and foreign investment inflows. Excess capacity and large output gap will persist through 2009 and most of 2010. This might lead the central bank to keep interest rates on hold for a long time and be one of the last central banks in Emerging Asia to raise rates.
  • But BNM would remain vigilant about rising oil and commodity prices during the global recovery, especially as the base effects of 2008 food and oil prices start fading in Q3 2009. Going forward, improvement in private demand, lag impact of fiscal stimulus and liquidity impact of portfolio inflows might reduce deflationary pressures.
  • However, further rate cuts are not expected. Low rates pose risk of capital outflows and downward pressure on currency amid declining interest rate differential with other Asian countries and the U.S.. This is exacerbated by risks to the debt ratings. Currency has showed some gains from April 2009 since when the rates have to kept on hold.
  • Analyst Wei Zheng Kit, Citigroup: The central bank will not increase interest rates until H1 2010. BNM might be the last central bank to tighten the monetary policy in Asia.
  • Economist Vishnu Varathan, Forecast Singapore: Since economic recovery in Southeast Asian countries is weaker than India and South Korea, Malaysia will not hike interest rates earlier than these two countries.
  • Analyst Tetsuji Sano, Nomura: If global oil prices continue to increase, the government may hike domestic gasoline prices. On a year-on-year basis, the CPI will continue to remain in negative territory. The central bank is expected to keep current key rate unchanged at least until Q1 2010 as economic recovery is still "nascent". Even after the central bank begins to increase interest rate, the real interest rate will stay below zero if the CPI remains around 2.3% in 2010 and 3.3% in 2011.
  • EIU: Malaysia is in a mild and short-lived deflation owing to falling global oil and non-oil commodity prices and base effects of 2008. However, the central bank will keep interest rates at around 2% for the rest of 2009 and probably until H1 2010.
  • Morgan Stanley: Deflation will continue until the end of 2009. The central bank will start raising interest rates in H2 2010.
  • Are Deflationary Pressures in Malaysia Fading?

  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 2% y/y in September 2009 for the fourth straight month of deflation after falling 2.4% in August 2009 and 2.4% in July 2009 due to relatively lower petrol and diesel prices. Yet, the pace of deflation has been slower led by the moderation of the decline in transport and food, clothing and food wear prices. On a month-on-month basis, CPI increased to 0.3% m/m in September 2009 after rising 0.2% m/m in August 2009. (Department of Statistics Malaysia, 10/23/09)
  • Deflationary pressures are due to high base effects of Q2 2008, decline in food and oil prices relative to 2008, government subsidies for flour, sugar and bread.
  • Deflation will persist due to output gap, excess capacity in manufacturing and rising unemployment. Sluggish recovery in 2010 implies that inflation will remain low until early 2010.
  • A risk is that the base effects of 2008 will start fading by Q3 2009 and might raise inflationary pressures due to recent increase in oil and commodity prices.
  • Inflation peaked in Q3 2008 at 8.4% y/y on high food and fuel prices and electricity tariffs.
  • BNM: Inflation and inflation expectations are expected to remain “contained”. Without any unexpected external impact, inflation in 2010 will turn positive, but remain “subdued”.
  • Analyst Wei Zheng Kit, Citigroup: Deflation has bottomed in August 2009 and positive momentum will continue to increase CPI. A year-on-year CPI may enter positive territory in 2009, but the central bank will hold interest rate unchanged in October 2009.
  • Economist Intelligent Unit: Inflation will stay in slightly negative territory in H2 2009 due to the decline in global oil and non-oil commodity prices and base effects from 2008. However, lower global commodity prices are positive for growth, which could strengthen domestic demand. Inflation will pick up in 2010 as global commodity prices increase.




p/s photos: Li Xiao Lu

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Where Are We Again In This Financial Crisis & Recovery?



I have posted this chart before from Paul Kedrosky's excellent site. As the chart only looks at the recovery from the aligned lows of each crisis, the first year's recovery was most pronounced, and as usual when it recovers the naysayers during each of these periods were vocal. What is more significant is that the recovery carried on into the second year just by looking at the various charts - and that to the naysayers would be unthinkable at the moment. Markets have a nice way of shocking us - are we all drilled to look at the wrong indicators? I am still thinking 10,800 to 11,000 is easy for the Dow by year end. I would term the most appropriate indicators for each of these crisis were:

a) how much cash was thrown into the system - this crisis wins it hands down
b) how widespread / global were the effects - looks about the same for all except the depression
c) how concerted was the global effort - this crisis wins hands down again
d) how did interest rates behave or were managed - the tech crisis saw Greenspan dropping rates quicker than a bullet (and was the start of the financial mayhem in properties, packaged loans, and the leveraged derivatives on those assets); this time, most of the global central banks are still keeping rates very low coupled with massive stimulus left, right and center.

As argued before, its not that the central banks want rates to be low as that will fuel the property side for the less affected countries, and indirectly push liquidity into stocks when risk aversion mood drops - but its for the greater good because corporate spending, hiring, investments in R&D are not recovering fast enough. Hence they all will tolerate a seemingly higher and hard to justify stock market valuations for the sake of the real economy. The real economy is expected to catch up to equity valuations, maybe they will, maybe they won't. But when you keep rates low enough and you have glimmers of recovery, that will set the momentum.

Are we putting ourselves into another bubble, ... yes... but this one will last some time yet. Its the making of a bubble, we are nowhere near boiling point yet.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

New York Roadshow By JP Morgan


J.P. Morgan's Malaysia Corporate Access Days

November 5-6 (Thu-Fri)

Grand Hyatt New York, 109 East 42nd Street at Grand Central Terminal, New York

  • Roundtable discussions, presentations and Q&A sessions with Malaysian government officials and regulators
  • 1x1 meetings with participating Malaysian corporates
Senator Tan Sri Amirsham Abdul Aziz, Chairman - National Economic Advisory Council
Dato' Ooi Sang Kuang, Deputy Governor,
Bank Negara Malaysia
Dato' Yusli Mohamed Yusoff, CEO,
Bursa Malaysia

Participating Corporates


Air Asia
(AIRA MK) - Dato Kamarudin Meranun, Group Deputy CEO

Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) - 1. Dato' Sri Jamaludin Ibrahim, President & Chief Executive Officer / 2. Dato’ Yusof Annuar Yaacob, Group Chief Financial Officer

Bursa Malaysia (BURSA MK) - Puan Nadzirah Abd Rashid, CFO

IJM Corporation (IJM MK) - Datuk Krishnan Tan Boon Seng, Chief Executive Officer & Managing Director

Public Bank (PBK MK) - Mr. Leong Kwok Nyem, Chief Operating Officer

Sime Darby (SIME MK) - 1. Azhar bin Abdul Hamid, EVP, Plantation / 2. Mohamad Hishammudin bin Hamdan, Group Head, Strategy & GBD / 3. Shariman Alwani bin Mohamed Nordin, Gp Head, Value Mgt & IR

S P Setia (SPSB MK) - 1. Ms. Wong Sheue Yann, Head, Corporate Services - Group Corporate Services / 2. Mr. Cheong Heng Leong - Manager, Investor Relations - Group Corporate & Finance Division

YTL Corp Berhad (YTL MK) - Tan Sri Dato' Dr Francis Yeoh, Group Managing Director



p/s photo: Chrissie Chau

Monday, October 26, 2009

Morgan Stanley Global Research Upgrades Malaysia








The influential Morgan Stanley Research has upgraded Malaysia and Egypt last week in the much followed Asia Strategy Report. Below are excerpts from the report:

Key changes in our country quant model this month are:

Upgrading: Malaysia and Egypt from equal-weight to overweight;
Downgrading: Peru and Chile from equal-weight to underweight.

Overweight countries are: China, Brazil, Taiwan, India, Israel, Poland, Malaysia and Egypt;
Underweight countries are:

Strong points for Malaysia in our model include a #1 currency ranking and #4 business cycle ranking. Relative P/Book has fallen to 1.0x due to recent under performance. Malaysia also gains in our model ranking this month, moving from #8 to #6. Strong points for Malaysia in our model include a #1 currency ranking (a combination of fundamental upside and a stock market consisting mainly of domestic demand, Malaysia ringgit earning stocks).

Malaysia ringgit is making steady progress against the US dollar.We also rank Malaysia’s business cycle score in the top quartile of EM countries in the model. Exports seem set to
trend up strongly from here, and Malaysia is one of the EM countries most geared to a recovery in global trade and commodity prices.

Due to recent under performance, the P/BR relative of MSCI Malaysia to the EM benchmark (now 1.0x) has fallen significantly. Malaysia is one of the least technically overbought markets in the asset class, ranking #5 on this metric. Moreover, the median GEM fund is running a significant underweight of 132 bps versus the benchmark, substantially higher than the average for the last five years.

Why I Like Notion VTec (Tons Of Catalysts, Another 3A?)




There are very few companies that can map out growth and expansion strategies properly, particularly if you manufacturing in precision engineering. You need to deliver, be consistent, be a critical part of the supply chain, and deliver well and on time. Then you need to manage your cost well and hope to reach critical mass in whatever you are producing. Track record alone will ensure more business from the big players. The big guys will always want to whittle down their main suppliers, and they need to feel comfortable that they are reliable and can deliver (again).

Just like Success Transformers, Hai-O and Efficient e-Solutions, Notion Vtec has also made the Forbes Asia "Best Under A Billion" list. The list featured the best 200 companies from the 24,155 listed companies in the Asia-Pacific region.

Over the last 2 weeks Notion V Tec has had a strong run up. Is it just participating in the "me-too" smaller caps rally, or is there something more substantial. Notion VTec is one of biggest high precision engineering specialists in Malaysia with 2 manufacturing plants in Klang, Selangor, which it has expanded a few times since its IPO in 2005. Presently, it has about 1,300 employees, and 80% of its factory workers are foreigners. The company has 960 CNC machines at the 2 production facilities. It has obtained ISO 9001: 2000, ISO140001: 2004 and ISO / TS16949 certification.

Notion VTec derives the bulk of its revenue from the hard disk drives (HDD) and digital camera industries. Its key customers are MNCs such as Western Digital, Hitachi and Nikon. Its key products camera cam barrels, digital camera body lens ring, HDD anti-disk, HDD disk clamps, HDD spacer rings and so on (refer to Appendix I for details on key products). Other industries with a lower sales contribution are the automotive, consumer electronics and air conditioning sectors.

Its top customers are the biggest players in the HDD and digital camera industries the likes of Western Digital, Hitachi and Nikon, as such, Notion VTec’s business will be reflective of the performance of the two industries.
HDD division (44% of group’s revenue) is seeing continuous strong demand from its key customer namely Western Digital. Demand for storage has been very firm on the back of rising digitalization. Compare that to Seagate which is still mired the problems associated with the acquisition of Maxtor.

Camera (46% of group’s revenue) is also seeing uptick in demand. As price points moved lower (for the SLRs), demand elasticity kicked in with higher volume being experience in the SLRs space. Nikon being its major customer (which commands some 40% of global SLRs) is once again loading up Notion for its quality and strong execution.

Notion VTec is in the midst of finalizing the acquisition of a production facility (23,000 sq ft) for a sum of RM5m in Thailand. The new facility will gear up to produce camera components for its key customer – Nikon beginning 1QCY2010. Plans are afoot to expand the production floor space to 100,000 eventually.

Catalyst #1 - New 2.5inch form factor: The project will involve the supply of base plates with contribution likely to hit RM4m per month (ASP USD1.25 x 1m pieces per month) or RM48m per annum on proforma. Initial ramp will be circa 100,000 per month rising to 1m eventually (tentatively by June 2010). Previously concentrating only at the 3.5inch form factor, the new client offers a golden opportunity for the group to tap into the higher growth form factor which includes notebooks and other mobile devices. The new 2.5inch project should propel group to hit revenue of RM1 billion in the near future. Using 600m units HDD per annum as a reference and 5% market share for the group, number of units will work out to be 30m pieces, that will translate into additional earnings of RM60m or 8.5sen EPS. Considering it is making just RM36m in net profits now, that is a quantum leap.

Catalyst #2
- Notion VTec has just been qualified by a new HDD customer, Samsung, to produce 2.5” HDD components. This is one factor which would propel Notion VTec to a higher growth platform in FY10 and FY11. Without this qualification, the company would only at best grow organically in tandem with the industry’s growth rate. This qualification by Samsung allows Notion VTec to mass produce 2.5” HDD components for the first time. Before this project, 90% of its HDD components is for the 3.5” HDD segment. Samsung has ordered the company to start mass production on 2.5” HDD components by November. Notion VTec is the second supplier for this particular component.

Catalyst #3 - Margins defensability: While Notion VTec’s consistently high margins of 25% since FY04 is impressive, it also stands out as being able to turn in the highest margins among its public listed peers in Malaysia. Notion VTec’s high volume products such as disk clamps, anti-disk and spacers for HDD are very profitable as each clamp and spacer only weighs 2 to 5 grams respectively, and so its material content is limited to less than 25% of its cost. By making its tools and fixtures in-house also brings down costs further. As for the digital camera segment, since the company started supplying high volumes of cam barrels to Nikon in 2007 and other digital camera makers prior to Nikon, the pricing pressure has been mitigated by the continuous introduction of new camera models, which enables Notion VTec to price its components at better levels.

Revenue 104.5m (2007); 146m (2008); 165m (estd.); 214m (2010 estd.)
Net Profit 26.6m (2007); 32.9m (2008); 36.7m (2009 estd.); 45.5m (2010 estd.)
EPS (sen) 4.5 (2007); 4.7 (2008); 5.2 (2009 estd.); 6.5 (2010 estd)
DPS (sen) 2.9 (2007); 1.4 (2008); 1.3 (2009 estd.); 2.0 (2010 estd.)

What's interesting was that the company still pays out decent dividends (considering its 703m shares issued). Herein lies the key, it is likely that the controlling shareholders want to hold onto their stakes, and as such they would probably "want" to live on the dividends. That is likely because if you look at the planned capex, its aggressive. Obviously, management is confident about their prospects. Notion VTec has budgeted for the second highest capex of RM50m for FY10 since its IPO in 2005. A sum of RM20m will be used for the Klang plant while RM30m will be spent for constructing the new Thailand plant. So far, RM20m in capex has been spent for 9MFY09 and another RM20m is expected to be spent on 103 new CNCs in 4QFY09. Hence, the total capex of RM45m for FY09 means that Notion VTec is expected to incur high capex for 3 consecutive years, at least until FY10. That to me, is a very good indicator.

Shares Issued: 703m

Major shareholders:
K.I. Permodalan Felda 15..0%
Choo Wing Hong:: 14.4%
Thoo Chow Fah: 10.9%
Choo Wing Onn: 10.6%

Revenue breakdown by key customer
FY08 / FY09e
Western Digital 30% / 36%
Hitachi 9% / 5%
Nikon 33% / 31%
PMG Klang 7% / 5%
Others 20% / 23%

Catalyst #4 - The company has just announced that they have approval to issue and place out 10% additional shares. This should be the biggest kicker. It all ties in with the capex expansion plan. While there have been whispers, I also do not want to over-speculate. Just think for a moment if the 10% is placed out to one of their top 3 clients - that will go a long way to securing long term business and gain a lot more market share of order from that client alone. The 10% if placed, say to Nikon, will not hinder its relations with other customers because its not a substantial stake, but it will elevate Notion VTec to a higher level of acceptance by other customers (if its good enough for Nikon, its good enough for me).

If its Nikon or Western Digital, could this have the same effect as Wilmar had on 3A Resources? Probably not as fantastic because the 3A situation is being transformed in its scalability by latching onto Wilmar's reach and distribution. In Notion's case, although it will be good, it will not be as exciting in terms of "scalability", but still very very good. If you note their corporate actions, they will be doing a 5 shares into one exercise, ex Nov 3 I think, that is a very good move to solidify the share base and capitalisation - hence it is likely that they will announce the placement just prior to the ex-date.

NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

p/s photos: Goto Maki




Sunday, October 25, 2009

Comments On October Budget




As a Malaysian business and finance site, I guess I am expected to post some comments on the Budget. You may or may not like Najib, but as a Finance Minister, I think he has the best grasp of economic and finance issues compared to the Finance Ministers we have had for the past 20 years. Normally we see funds being thrown about and that's that. He has obviously been well advised, most of the measures are well defined with timelines and deadlines.

The strategy is to focus more on what we do well, what we have inherent strengths. The overall bigger picture is to ensure higher incomes for all - i.e. moving up the value add curve. The budget was very responsible, Najib could have taken the easy route and spend and spend with abandon. There are still a lot issues naturally if we wish to move up the value curve - the most pressing has to be the subsidy mentality. We need a complete overhaul of how we view the subsidy, we need to set timelines to gradually eradicate it except for the most basic and necessary products - at the same time, these removal / reduction of subsidies need to be balance in that the most affected will not suffer too much.

The overall budget will be taken positively by most foreign research houses, it provided strong soundbites, says the right things. I would say that the stock market should surprise most with a good performance.


* Government to reduce maximum individual income tax rate from 27% to 26% for chargeable income group exceeding RM100,00. Personal relief increase from RM8,000 to RM9,000 in 2010. This means that each individual taxpayer will enjoy an increase of RM1,000 in disposable income.* Govt to allocate RM899m for tourism industry in 2010, attract more participants from UK, Japan, Korea under Malaysia, My Second Home. (The man on the street always on the lookout for more take home pay. While that is a narrow perspective, more cash is always good, and judging from our high-ish tax rates compared to the rest in the region, this is a good move.)

* Govt to speed up implementation of high speed broadband at total cost of RM11.3b,of which RM2.4 billion is from government and RM8.9 billion from Telekom Malaysia. (Very important. It smacks at our overall competitiveness. Crucially there is a dateline to rollout in KL by March next year, and the rest of the country a gradual rollout by 2012.)

* Govt proposes individual taxpayers be given tax relief on broadband subscription fee up to RM500 a year from 2010 to 2012. (Good move.)

* Govt to allocate RM9b for infrastructure, of which RM4.7b for road, bridge, water, sewerage projects and RM900m for rail. (Good addition to the "earlier stimulus package", did not go overboard.)

* Govt to look into micro insurance, takaful coverage. Premiums from as low as RM20 per month for small traders, coverage from RM10k to RM20k.

* Flexible brokerage sharing between stockbrokers, remisers. Flexible brokerage at 40% for remisers. To be fully liberalised in second stage by Jan 1, 2011. (Will allow more aggressive brokers to snatch remisiers. Expect Singapore houses to be more aggressive here.)

* Allow 100pct foreign equity stake in corporate finance, financial, planning companies from at least 30pct local stake now. (Good move although many have been doing these deals out of the country anyway.)

* For upstream petroleum companies, income tax for yr assessment 2010 based on 2009 income can be paid over 5 years. (Allows for better reinvestment and cost/revenue matching.)

* Govt to impose 5pct tax imposed on gains from disposal of real property from Jan 1, 2010. However, it will be retained for gifts between parent and child, husband and wife, grandparent and grandchild. This tax exemption will also be given on disposal of residential property once in a lifetime. (Property companies will not be pleased with the reintroduction of RPGT, but its a pre-emptive move, considering the "better leverage to borrow from Account 2 of EPF" for purchases. 5% is fair and will keep a lid on things, a hint on things that Bank Negara may be keeping rates low for a few more months. Low rates, which is necessary to keep ample liquidity in the system, is targeted to boost lending to business and create/save jobs. An indirect nasty would be channeling it to push property prices higher - the RPGT is to keep things on a more equal footing.)

* Govt proposes RM50 service tax on each principal credit card, charge cards, including free cards. RM25 for supplementary cards by January. (Could AEON Credit be affected, guess so, we really need just one card people, any more than that is license to fuck ourselves up.)

* Govt to impose RM10,000 for each approved permit to open AP holders, for distribution of AP in 2010. (Not good enough, needs to place a timeline to scrap it, say within 3 years, and the levy needs to be closer to market price of RM30,000.)

* Govt to implement fuel subsidy management system in early 2010, using MyKad, to ensure targeted groups will benefit.

* Govt to reduce maximum individual income tax rate from 27pct to 26pct, personal relief increase from RM8,000 to RM9,000 in 2010. (Cannot complain but we need the top rates to come down some more to incentivise entreprenuers. If the money makers are not making money, the ones below will not do well.)

* Govt to launch scheme for EPF contributors to use current, future savings in account 2 to get higher financing to buy higher value house or additional houses. (Need deatils but generally positive.)

* Govt to issue 1Malaysia sukuk totaling RM3b, for Malaysian aged 21 and above. 3yr maturity, with 5pct annual rate of return

* 1Malaysia retirement scheme for self-employed, run by EPF. For every RM100 contribution, govt to contribute 5pct, maximum RM60.

* Personal tax relief raised to RM7,000 from RM6,000 now for EPF contribution and life insurance premiums. (We should have a timeline, RM1,000 increase every year till RM10,000.)


p/s photos: Noon Wongsawan