1 Month Best Returns ending 30 June 2008Argentina +9.6%
Czech Republic +2.6%
Morocco -0.02%
Indonesia -2.0%
Canada -3.7%
Peru -4.1%
Switzerland -4.9%
UK -6.3%
Japan -6.7%
Australia-6.7%
Singapore -7.7%
Germany -7.8%
Malaysia -8.05%
US -8.13%
HK -10.8%
Thailand -11.2%
South Korea -11.3%
China -12.4%
Taiwan -12.7%
NZ -13.4%
Philippines -14.9%
India -20.11%
If we look at the 1 month return ended June, its obvious the ones really struggling with inflationary expectations and a high interest rate level already are getting whacked greater. The reverse was also largely true of course.
3 Month Returns Ended 30 June 2008
Argentina +26.75%
Brazil +18.65%
Russia +10.2%
Canada +9.8%
Australia +3.9%
Japan +2.0%
Singapore 0.1%
Germany -1.1%
UK -1.3%
US -1.5%
Indonesia -2.06%
Morocco -2.08%
China -3.07%
South Korea -6.2%
Malaysia -7.05%
Thailand -10.9%
NZ -11.7%
Taiwan -12%
India -19.3%
Philippines -22.6%
On a 3 month basis, the excitement was with resource rich nations judging from the top 5 performers. The selling has still been largely in those countries struggling with high real interest rates and even higher inflationary expectations. That being the case, with a downtrending commodity prices, would the performers going forward change?
A serious downtrend in commodity prices will spur equities globally. However, those struggling with a high BLR e.g. 7% or higher will find its equity markets harder to perform as returns will be judged against returns from equity. That being the case, good dividend yield markets with a correspondingly low BLR and a largely containable inflation rate of 5% or below, and a strong currency outlook will be favoured:
Argentina
Brazil
Singapore
HK
Malaysia
Japan
US
3 comments:
It might be too late to buy into the rising markets..now just wait to bottom fish and hold for long terms..
I still like to hold financials if it tanks alot..coz they are 1st to go down and also the 1st to rise from the ashes.
Kris
Another mother of all the bubbles which still long overdue and have not burst yet but keep expanding at the very rapid rate is the credit debt bubble being created for worldwide consumption !
If you believe my observation, our local market look bottom. Overseas wise, the market take into account of subprime and ME tension. Oil price looks bubble to me, will reach USD120 in few weeks.
With the double gain in forex and equity, I tend to believe foreign fund will influx the market soon.
Meantime, the local fund will need push the momentum. Last few days, seen stocks like AirAsia up and down.
If given a choice, O&G with deepseas exposure will be my preference. I like Sapcrest, Scomi and Petra. Hopefully, one of them will be market leader this round. Have luck or bust....
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