Showing posts with label Elanne Kong Yuk Lam. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elanne Kong Yuk Lam. Show all posts

Monday, April 04, 2011

Fallacy In Some Common Investing Thoughts

Tomorrow is T+3, sure a lot of selling - Errr, actually, everyday is T+3, what kind of logic are we employing when we say that? Unless we know for sure how much of the buying was purely on contra every day? Do we know that? If the average daily volume was 1bn and then one day it spiked to 1.5bn, are we saying that would indicate more contra positions taken up? If that is true, it also meant that the 1.5bn selling would also free up a lot of cash waiting to re-enter. So, do not use that phrase again, its close to idiotic.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOAiW7SmGXopFOh0G6OvBiQVMCdZz-GHEgf0Mtfxxh7fXtZOPu2TnmhwjBU7pwy7N2WVh6tWjQAw1X8ATsAosJI_H1s6uY8dVxRtMomLV9-F4QR_T80WjzZ8LHFXrKynZPfBy67Q/s1600/elanne_kwong_first_mandarin_album1.jpg

If you want to gauge true short term selling potential, look for increasing volume and increasing share prices 3 or 4 days straight, then you can say there is potential short term profit taking. Contra buying and selling happens everyday. Contra is not a major factor anymore, not like the 90s when people can buy shares with little or no collateral. Now most investors have margin, some even T+5 or T+10 in certain broking houses.

Don't speculate-lah, invest-mah - Back to the same diatribe again. Investing does not mean long term, and speculate does not mean short term trading. You are doing one or the other based on the amount of information you have on hand:
a) fundamentals outlook
b) technical charting info (if desired)
c) readings on volume and price, or momentum trading
d) information on M&A, corporate exercises, etc.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4PDooG5W8RT6gsFXcNrnOHyKIDjd_dSD_7EV19F0PauS-ap9R8UTJ3a2zGeNv5K0HpQOxjuZDpta-egD7bQAoN9B-g79DV0lRsLXTXnQPsnYc0plPDtu6-Vl_SZ7X1bFZCm0s4g/s400/ap_20090318034136493.jpg

Say there are 100 factor points for full understanding where the stock is headed (and believe you me, that is not solely based on fundamentals alone, or else Buffett won't have nearly half his holdings under water now), the more factor points you have in your hands, even if its a day trade, that is investing. If you buy a stock with little or no knowledge, even if you are buying Public Bank and hold for 5 years, that is speculating.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Chinese Footwear Pariahs n Darlings




I only mentioned Xinquan, not any of the other China footwear companies listed on Bursa.

The leader is Xinquan. Even when it shot up from RM1.25 to RM1.60 on good volume, not many paid any attention. When it made its next move up to RM1.85, suddenly all the other footwear companies are in the "me too" category.




Please re-read my posting on these companies:

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2010/05/china-apeks-in-bursa.html

Xinquan



I do not subscribe to the thinking that there is a positive rerating for this group of companies as a whole. If investors think that there is a rerating, then they will be sorely disappointed and misguided.

You can read reams and reams of good analysis at:


Multi Sports
http://www.ahyap.com/blog/msports.php ( and just replace Multi Sports with the other names, you get the drift)

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e85/anychanh/cover/elannekong.jpg

There are still a lot of unanswered questions, my main ones are:


Why are the companies hoarding so much cash, some even do rights issue amidst all that cash, ... some trade at 2-3x PER, .....
why are there NO private equity funds going in to fund the owners to do a buyout??? ....
the simplest way to gain credibility is to issue a statement that you will pay 40% or even 60% of net profits back as dividend (every 6 months to get better traction), any idiot knows that, why won't they do that???


Until I get real answers to the above questions, I can only assume the worst. The reason why I singled out Xinquan is that some shrewd investors have visited the company and "invited to invest", apparently there will an "agreement" with respect to paying out a certain percentage of profits as dividend as part of the exercise. You have that, and people have done their due diligence, then its a lot less risk.

As for the rest, my view has not changed for them: AVOID, its a false rally.


http://www.popbee.com/image/2008/06/juno-mak-elanne-kong-theresa-fu-news-200608-7.jpg

NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Facebook Buys Malaysia's Octazen Solutions

(Excerpts culled from AllFacebook.com , techcrunch.com , gigaom.com )

Facebook has bought up under-the-radar Octazen Solutions in what the company says is a “small talent acquisition.”

Facebook spokesperson Larry Yu described the buy as a “talent acquisition,” saying Octazen’s two employees have joined Facebook as engineers. As he put it in a company statement on the acquisition he sent via email:
“We’ve admired the engineering team’s efforts for some time now and this is part of our ongoing effort to add experienced, accomplished technical talent to help drive the company forward in its efforts to be the central way for people to connect and share information.”

Elanne Kwong (20090221-141445)

Octazen’s software helps sites like Facebook grow by making it easy for users to invite their contacts on other services. When Octazen receives an email address and password it fetches a list of contacts and puts them in an array for customers to use and store (and hopefully not abuse!). Octazen has taken down most of its site in light of the acquisition, but archived versions show it charged for software licenses between $39 and $200 per domain server plus a yearly update fee.

Octazen describes itself on its website as a “webmail contacts importer” and Facebook was already using the firm to “grow its number of users by encouraging them to invite their email contacts.”

This is Facebook’s first acquisition since it purchased social sharing service FriendFeed over the summer in a deal that was also described as mainly being driven by a desire to add talent.

However, unlike FriendFeed—which continues to operate separately seven months later—Facebook has already moved to shut Octazen down; an on the Octazen website says the company is winding down operations and will no longer accept new customers.

http://www.octazen.com/

What exactly has Octazen been up to? The company is mostly about above-board contact importing from one service to another – signing in to Gmail from Facebook, for example, to import your contacts there and add them as Facebook friends. Much of this is done via OAuth and APIs, but Octazen is known to dive much deeper for data.

One example – Octazen will sometimes collect and store user credentials directly, and sign into large social networks and other sites as if they were the user, say multiple sources. Then they’ll download the address book and social graph. A percentage of your friends on that service might be users of the service (now Facebook) paying Octazen, and you’ll be asked to friend them. But there’s a big question about what happens to the rest of the data as well, and if Octazen is storing a shadow social network in violation of terms of service to recommend user connections down the road. And they may look deeper at data than they should – at email header information, for example, to get a better understanding of who you communicate with the most.

But the most unnerving part of Octazen, say our sources, is the fact that they are very, very good at scraping data at scale without being detected. They may hit a service using lots of different IP addresses, for example, and remain undetected. Octazen could, they say, scrape very public sites like Twitter, where the social graph is on each profile, in a way that Twitter wouldn’t know it’s happening.

Facebook already uses Octazen to mysteriously determine your long lost friends and suggest that you re-connect with them (leading to scores of emails into our inbox that Facebook is somehow reading emails or otherwise getting data they shouldn’t be).

The big question is why Facebook would need to acquire a company located half way around the world if all they were doing is standard address book imports via OAuth and APIs, or proprietary but well documented protocols like Facebook uses. The implication is that these guys have serious expertise in data gathering at scale that may sometimes be in violation of the terms of service of the sites being harvested.

This is obviously just one side of the possible story, albeit based on hard evidence of Octazen’s shady prior practices and via multiple sources. But until Facebook explains this acquisition in more detail, we don’t have much more to go on.




Here are three reasons All Facebook wrote as possible reasons for acquiring Octazen:

Simple Talent Acquisition

Facebook needed a team which could constantly monitor changes to third-party email providers to ensure that they retain the ongoing viral growth. Octazen, a company Facebook has already been working with, provided this ability and will help ensure that Facebook’s contact importer will function through part of the company’s most critical growth phase: the race to 1 billion users.

While the company didn’t need to acquire the company, locking in the developers behind Octazen for at least a few years will ensure that Facebook has the developers’ full-time attention (despite not having oversight of the developers who are based in Malaysia and will remain there).

Protect Their Viral Growth

There is a small chance that Octazen currently has information which is extremely proprietary which helps ensure Facebook’s contact importer continues to function. In order to protect that knowledge, Facebook locked in the developers and bound them into an agreement in which their technology could not be used for any other organizations. That would explain the following statement on the Octazen Solutions website:

The Octazen team wanted to let you, our valued customers, know that the company recently received an offer to acquire most of the company’s assets and to employ those assets in a different direction. After carefully evaluating this offer, our team believes this is a wonderful opportunity of which we must take advantage.

As a result, effective immediately, Octazen will no longer accept new service contracts or renew existing service contracts, and will enter a transition period to wind down operations.

A Simple Present Value Calculation

Facebook may have been paying significant fees to the Octazen solutions company. Given that they knew they would be paying those fees for at least the next 3 to 5 years, Facebook decided to do a simple financial calculation and figure out the present value of the future outgoing cash flows to maintain the contact importer. Add a little on top of the present value and you’d get Facebook’s acquisition price which just made financial sense.

(I guess all Malaysians would like to know what price they paid the two guys. Its obviously a talent acquisition plus they probably have something they are doing which may be better exploited and protected at a place like Facebook. It would not be a big sum for sure or else, they couldn't tie the two down to work at Facebook. I am thinking in the region of US$10m, with contractual periods to work hand in hand with Facebook team of engineers).

p/s photo: Elanne Kong