High Anxiety

One of my favourite movies by Mel Brooks, and that's an apt heading for today's markets. The climb up was easier but not when you reached the peak, what now? To be cautious as the market tries to stay above the peak is good but also silly as the ones unwinding their positions are not blue chip buyers/holders or index stock holders/buyers but rather speculative trading type of shares. Geez, you are playing with half-rubbish and you like to think and trade like a blue chip investor??

Just remember how we got here, we were here before until the scary movie part 1, 2 and 3... read previous blogs please. So we have reconsidered the gravity of those so called risk and have basically brushed them aside, we have been here before. Scaling this further is not a big problem at all. China meltdown, brushed aside after looking at reality. Yen carry trade, over-exaggeration. Sub-prime, bears on a drunken rampage. These 3 were much bigger and real risks. Breaching all time highs, profit taking activity will be there but they will also be shallow and swift this time around. If the 3 tenors already came and did not conquer, the road ahead is relatively clear. Even Greenspan said yesterday that his fears of a recession has receded.

Though I think we are moving into the 3rd stage of a 4 stages bull run, I have to admit that the bulk of the bullishness is part money supply excessive growth in many countries - which brings down overall quality of this bull run but makes the current bull more sure-footed also. Sure-footed in that things like liquidity is there; silly premises such as shrinking scrip supply due to buybacks and private equity buyouts as not really productivity enhancing - so quality is not there but the surefootedness of this bull is there.

So,,guys, buyback those shares cause the blues ain't gonna fall. If the good guys are not going down, why are the little ones running for cover? Come out to play.