Johor/Forest City/SG Theme Play

 I have written quite a bit on the said theme. Once you are convinced of a thematic play... it is best to use the "channel tunnel trading range" or swing trade. Pick the ones with the most beta and liquidity that suits your risk profile.

Today is Friday 13th .... look at Catalyst#6 ... on October 17th is a critical coupon payment of USD15 million that Country Gardens need to pay. That sum has already been given a 30 day grace period. So take that information to your trading strategy and act accordingly.

On the other hand, the upcoming Budget by PM may offer further positive newsflow to the theme. There should be sufficient volatility over the next 7 trading days.

Best Omakase In Town - Sushi Foo

 

Have been following Chef Foo for some time now. Used to operate next to Pavillion Bukit Jalil but that shop opened at the same time when Covid started, so his business partner did not manage to hold on to the business. Now he has come full circle, with more equity, his own personal place.

For omakase, it is an overused term and concept. You are only getting produce the chef has ordered, so his links to suppliers (esp from Japan) is critical. Good Japanese food is not cheap.

That is why I don't get hung up with celebrity Japanese chefs. Next time you have an omakase or go to a famous sushi place, ask yourself, what are you paying for. Your RM400-1,000 has to pay for the expat chef's salaries, location, rental, service staff, etc. and after that produce.

(the salmon roe aged 5 days)

Chef Foo has garnered enough fans and followers to open at a 'dislocated' location because he is not going after walk in traffic. People will search for his place ... save a lot on rental. 

(early appetiser, ebiko, fresh prawns, uni, topped with lavender petals)

You go to a 800-1,200 pp place with a famous name and famous Japanese chef, you are probably getting 200-300 in produce value. Here omakase ranges from 300-800 and you getting closer to half of it in produce value.

(shima aji luxury roll with Japanese spring onions, ginger)

He is knowledgeable but is tied to the history of Japanese cuisine strictures. His selection is not tied to Edo (the old name for Tokyo) style sushi or Kansai-style sushi. Still, he has a deep respect for the cuisine and does not step much into the crazy Western style where fusion and almost anything goes. 

(huge hotate, grilled lightly)

I can't post all the things I had ... maybe 75%.

(the under-rated sardine)

(pomfret)

(this starter was superb, a chawanmushi with crab meat and lightly cooked cod sperm duct, easily the best way to eat the cod duct)

(the proverbial sake... served cold of course)

(Kyushu oysters, small but deep tasting)

(the XXXXXX, otoro aged 20 days ... like eating 3 otoros but no jelak feel)

(okagai with sea grapes)

(I think it is monkfish liver with crab meat, sumptuous)

(the sashimi pair ... kinki fish, great oils... but its the smoked Spanish mackeral that takes the centerstage, we all immediately tasted the best of peatiness/smokiness of Lagavulin and Laphraiog enveloping the fish... gawd, would have been sublime to chase this with a shot of Laga)

(we kept asking for his home made pickled ginger and cucumber to be topped up)

(we liked the previous uni/prawns/ebiko so much ... he gave us another, this time with sushi rice at the bottom)

(the subtle chutoro)

(he dragged his prized possession to show us, the 20 day aged toro and otoro)

(the silkiest cut of kampachi served with bamboo salt)

(the aged otoro)

It is silly to try and call it the best, what I am trying to get at is the selection is often top notch and the cuts are generally premium cuts. There's enough interesting and hard-to-get stuff that serves as a greater charm to the whole meal.

They also do lunch sets, glorious ones too. Seating is limited to less than 15. Book before coming.

Grumpy Old Man Syndrome

Sometimes we stereotypify something because we can see them in substantive numbers but we may not understand why they occur. Grumpy old men ... we all have more than our share of experiences with our fellow man. 

For women, we have had a lot of attention and research into the period when a woman goes into menopause. Hormone replacement therapy was a wonderful discovery for all humankind. We know that women lose a lot of the necessary hormones to be normal and hence many has to have some form of hormone replacement therapy.

Not a week goes by that I am not asked about testosterone levels. Especially one of the following questions:

—”How can I raise my testosterone?”

—”Can supplements actually boost testosterone?”

—”How do I know if I have low testosterone?”

The questions are endless. Testosterone is a hot marketing area for men, that strikes at the core of machismo and male health. Attach testosterone to any product with some hyperbole, and you can market it effectively.

http://andropausesuccor.com

But truth be told, testosterone levels are critical for male health. Low testosterone causes:

Low energy
Low sex drive
Low strength
Anxiety, depression, and general lethargy
There are no advantages to having low testosterone. Zero. Nada. In fact, hypogonadism (which is when your body is not producing enough testosterone) is linked to:

Alzheimer’s disease
Dementia
Cardiovascular disease
Recent research even points to low testosterone being a precipitating factor for prostate cancer.

With all this in mind, it’s concerning that testosterone levels have been dropping in men worldwide for decades.

The reasons for this are legion:

Environmental endocrine disruptors, plastics, contaminants; lack of sunlight and solar radiation; lack of key micronutrients, skewed diets; lack of exercise, lack of sleep, increased stress; the list is long.

And this drop in testosterone is not only seen in humans, but animals as well. Across the world, environmental pollutants are affecting animal life and disrupting sex hormones.

The pragmatic reality is this:

Our environments and lifestyles do affect our bodies. And many men are slowly castrating themselves through their lifestyles.

Increasing your testosterone levels, and thus your general vitality, should be of paramount focus for all men.

High testosterone levels are a representation of overall good health.

http://andropausesuccor.com

You have everything to lose and nothing to gain by ignoring your hormone levels.

How come there is no therapy for men when we age?

Just looking at an average old man of 70-80 years. You know very well he will have some or most of the following problems due to normal aging (I haven't gone into specific diseases such as diabetes, heart issues, cancers, etc.):




- Slackening memory

- Osteoporosis

- Knee and ligaments issues

- Mood swings and irritability

- Loss of muscle mass

- Loss of strength 

- Virtually no production of sperm by testes

- Bladder control issues

- Loads of visceral fats

- Prostate issues

- Height loss

- Almost no more erections

- Very low libido and sex drive

- Possible depression
- Scalier and drier skin

- Decreased body hair



The sad truth is that the majority of men will go through their aging process from 40-50-60-70-80 with nary a word or care and just shoulder along. ALMOST ALL OF THE PROBLEMS CITED ABOVE HAS TO DO WITH THE LOSS OF TESTOSTERONE and NOT CARING.

What Can You Expect By Taking Andropause Succor

1-2 weeks:  

Better quality erections (hardness and ability to stay up longer)

More energetic and positive

Higher libido (sex drive)

Heightened metabolism

Less irritability and mood swings

Better quality sleep

More motivated and focused



Longer Term:   Stops hair loss

                      Less visceral fats

                      Retention of muscle mass

                      Better joints strength

                      Reduction in bone loss and danger of having osteoporosis

                      Elevated testosterone

                      Higher sperm count

                      Less lethargy and better temperament

Aging is inevitable but when there are sufficient research and science behind to remedy the situation, much like Hormone Replacement Therapy for women, we should take it.

By maintaining a sufficiently high testosterone level, we will age more gracefully and be active and have the strength to do more of the things we love.

ANDROPAUSE SUCCOR has formulated a largely herbal supplement to reverse the effects of low testosterone and more. Addressing anti-inflammation is a requisite platform to boosting overall health besides just raising testosterone for men.

You could be looking like someone like this on the left when you are 70-80. It's a choice.

The Country Garden Factor In Forest City Revitalisation Plan

Forest City is a US100bn project. Country Garden supposedly holds a 60% stake with the rest by Esplanade Danga 88 (held by Johor state interest and the Sultan of Johor. CG missed two coupon payments totaling US22.5m last month.

- Resale prices have plummeted. Units were launched and sold in 2020 for around RM1,200psf. The resale market is being done at around RM500-550psf currently.

- The venture envisages accommodating 700000 residents in waterfront apartment towers on four man-made islands spanning 30 sq km (11.6 square miles) between Malaysia and Singapore. Only 9,000 people live in Forest City despite having 28000 residential units completed thus far.

- The concept and execution looked good on paper. CG with a top-rate brand, and many Chinese would like to somehow "transfer out" their wealth and exposure overseas - thus making Forest City an easy sale. That has been thrown out the window with the sharp downturn in China's own property market. Beijing, in order to stop public funds from going offshore (capital controls), has literally made it impossible for most Chinese to buy overseas' properties. CG is stalled and the buying from China has too.

- The pandemic only exacerbated the situation. Forest City was initially approved at the state level (where most land use decisions are made) even as the project skirted national environmental regulations. Eventually, the project developer was forced to address both national and even international concerns over the project. Local stakeholders, including coastal residents, fishermen, and environmentalists, played an important role in drawing media attention to the project. Singapore also voiced its objections, and knowing Singapore is a key player in the equation, a lot of work has been spent rectifying the concerns.

- If CG undergoes liquidation, no amount of incentives will be able to lift Forest City - it will have to undergo a long process of verification and tabulation. Residents would have to undergo an administrative process to submit proof to liquidators that they are indeed the rightful owners. CG would have to realize all its assets including shares it holds with its subsidiary companies in Malaysia, and that will include the developer of the Danga Bay project – Country Garden Danga Bay. If Country Garden Danga Bay is liquidated, residents who do not already own their strata titles might be forced to show proof that they are indeed the owner of the unit.

That's the gist of it, on the negative side.

Present Times

At present, CG has two main developments in south Johor – the US$100 billion (RM465 billion) Forest City flagship mega-development and the popular Country Garden Danga Bay on reclaimed land that has a gross development value of US$18 billion (RM83.7 billion). The developer also has a third project in Johor Baru called Central Park, which is still under development. The project is scheduled to be completed by next year and is valued at US$990 million (RM4.6 billion).

Bank Negara said that banks incorporated in the country had limited exposure to Country Garden, and added that the company’s Malaysia unit was servicing loans promptly. Bank Negara Malaysia told Reuters in an e-mail: “The current development with Country Garden Holdings Ltd in China is not expected to pose any material impact on the overall property market activity and prices in Malaysia.”

Interesting Points To Consider

a) Forest City is the largest international property venture for CG. They will try to shutter everything else before they touch Forest City. If Forest City is stopped by CG, that can only mean that the company is going under liquidation.

b) The ECRL (East Coast Rail Link) is considered part of China's Belt & Road initiative (thus making it a more important factor than usual). While the KL-Johor HSR is not exactly part of that initiative, it is also considered vitally important in terms of linking right down to Singapore.

c) Not to mention the numerous projects that China has a vested interest in in Malaysia, Malaysia is a crucial political ally in making sense of the sea rights in the South China Sea. Thus making Forest City not only a CG problem but one with greater ramifications to both countries.

d) The governments of Johor and Singapore are also discussing the possibility of launching further ferry services and will study the sustainability of a prospective new route between Puteri Harbour and Tuas. Unlike the already congested Johor Bahru city center or the area surrounding the causeway, the Second Link area has lots of land banks as well as well-developed infrastructure and facilities. Furthermore, it is close to a large seaport, the Port of Tanjung Pelepas, and the intended Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High-Speed Rail (HSR) station may be relocated to Gerbang Nusajaya (as it was previously planned).

In Closing: CG is a very important factor in trying to revitalize and complete Forest City. Our government can do all the tax reductions and easy access plans, but if CG folds, it will add another 10 years of being in the wilderness for the project.

Hence, the newsflow on CG is of utmost importance. Their viability and the timing of the recovery in China's property market need to be closely followed. 

Following the recent issue of CG not paying the USD22.5m coupon on a couple of bonds, the world was watching to see if the creditors would grant an extension. This was critical in buying time to wait for the recent Beijing measures to pump up buying in the property market to come to fruition.

The X Factor: Country Garden had delayed a deadline for creditors to vote on whether to postpone payments for an onshore 3.9 billion yuan (USD537 million) private bond last Friday at 1400 GMT, as it strives to avoid default. On Saturday, Country Garden won approval from its creditors to extend the payments to 2026, a major relief for the developer and the entire sector.

While Country Garden's liabilities are only 59% of those at Evergrande, it has 3,103 projects across China, compared with around 800 for Evergrande - making the company matter to systemic stability while also fueling contagion fears as it shows signs of financial stress. The contagion effect means Beijing would pull out all stops to ensure CG not only survives but thrives. For now, the Chinese authorities are scrambling to introduce a string of measures, including mortgage rate cuts and an easing of home purchase restrictions, to revive the property market and prop up the sputtering economy.

How Bad

Country Garden's total liabilities were about USD194 billion. It faces 108.7 billion yuan (USD14.9 billion) worth of debts due within 12 months, while its cash levels are around 101.1 billion yuan.

I strongly expect Beijing to come in with a huge injection of capital to CG very soon. Go to liquidation? Silly... what happens when they start to auction off the landbanks of CG - the ramifications are too dire. Imagine the banking loans writedowns, the domino effect on other property players, the polarising disgruntlement among the property owners with loans facing negative equity, the land auctions which will bring down sentiment and land holding asset values even further ...

Hence, overall I see an 80% chance of Beijing coming in to save the company. Judging by the USD14bn loans due within 12 months, it is likely a Beijing-led rescue will come before the year is over for I cannot see them being able to convince another group of creditors to delay/extend the loans. This is a good thing for all the property counters presently rallying around the new measures for Forest City. The related parties just have to get out the details and execute ASAP (Federal, MOF, EPA, Johor state government, Singapore government, visas, MNCs actually moving, implementation details on tax rates, HSR, ferry, etc.)

Do you have any idea how big the rally will be (for Forest City linked counters)  IF/WHEN Country Garden gets the capital injection rescue???

Property Rally - Something Bigger Or Just A Wet Fuse?

The local stocks have been in the doldrums for the longest time. We are talking of at least 4-5 years with the exception of a big run on glove stocks during the pandemic. The market is huge and it takes a lot of factors to collide for it to mushroom into a full-blooded bull market.

Malaysia has one of the highest GDP/market capitalization of stock exchange companies in the WORLD. Please wrap that around your finger. We are talking of 80 odd percent of local GDP. Every time a company starts to make RM4-6m a year, investment bankers will start shadowing those companies and groom them for a listing. The only companies not listed in Malaysia are your laundromats, kedai runcits, cendol seller, etc...

PM Anwar and his team have inherited a poor economy with loads of issues. At the same time, we are battered by the flight of money away from local shores owing to the presence of a new government. Plenty of "gray wealth" has left the shores thus exacerbating the ringgit's strength.

PM Anwar and Rafizi know too well how they need to supercharge the economy while taking time to curtail past misdeeds on our balance sheet. PM announced that Forest City has been designated as a special financial zone to spur the economy in Iskandar Malaysia. Amongst the incentives that have been announced include multiple entry visas, fast-track entry for those working in Singapore, and a flat income tax rate of 15% for knowledge workers. He said this should spur the growth of those involved in the healthcare, education, and tourism sectors.

Now, that announcement was in the middle of August... have a look at UEMS chart:

(UEMS 30 sen to 70 sen rally is about +130%; as the leader and th one with the biggest landbank the rally is still early)

Our superboy has been picking up steam since the middle of July from 30 sen, and it's around 70 sen in less than 1.5 months. OK forget about the fact that someone, somewhere... will also hear about the news first. Where do we go from here? Can this be big and sustainable enough to spark a broader bull run? Or will it just fizzle out?

My Views

a) The announcement by the government is not a haphazard thing; it is a thought-out plan with eventualities mapped out on logistics, people movement issues, visa issues, the proper monitoring and regulatory side on Forest City, etc.

b) This is certainly big enough to trigger a broader market rally; the concept... remember Putrajaya in 1995... that was a concept ... in 2001 it is real, viable, and operating; the same here, Forest City is not a concept, while it has not been fully built out yet, there are sufficient developed parcels to jump-start the whole new concept.

c) Political will: The Federal is for it, they need something big to revive the economy and hope to stand a better chance of winning the next general elections; We all know the Johor state government has been waiting for a long time to kickstart this mega project; and Singapore is exactly at the property cycle whereby, it needs to move the industrial sites to cheaper locales, to the Singapore side, this is the best alternative for them but they CANNOT be seen as the one proposing the scheme as that might be construed as a "takeover or buyout"; this way its more accommodating, you scratch my back I scratch yours.

The Johor Bahru-Singapore Rapid Transit System (RTS) is not a new project. It started in 2020 and will only be completed in 2026. While MyHSR Corporation recently initiated a request for information (RFI) to solicit concept proposals from local and international players for the behemoth Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail project, the bankability of any public infrastructure project of this scale is always in question, however, with this new development, the "success factor" for this will be bettered substantially. 

d) As explained earlier, our local economy is intrinsically tied to our stock market; what it means is that it has a very high BETA, i.e. you pump RM100m into the stocks, it will have a velocity of money of around 7x-9x to the real economy; making it imperative to jumpstart the local economy; thus the Federal will move mountains to ensure that this gets delivered and executed promptly and smartly.

(IOI Prop's rally from 1.10 to 1.60 is about a 45% gain; that's a lagging performance and should have the legs to test RM2.00 soon)

The above table is a useful guide but I would also consider real float /controlling shareholders' real interest/ funding capacity/ stale bulls on the way up.

What's Next

Now, we need subsequent REAL CATALYSTS, and they need to come every few weeks. The newsflow will have to be positive and consistent.

Catalyst #1: This one has to happen soon. Since PM Anwar's announcement, I have been scouring the pages of The Straits Times to read any news or opinions from the government down south. The silence was deafening. Seriously, nothing of substance, just the announcement, nothing from the related ministries or PM down south. This just makes it more LIKE and PALPABLE that some major announcement will come soon. That's because obviously, it looks like a huge collective PR and rhetoric will come soon to applaud how the plan will enhance every facet of Singapore's economy and future prosperity.

Catalyst #2: There has to be REAL DEMAND, the real movement of companies. That should come from MNCs and some Singapore GLCs to start with, followed by local Singapore companies. Once timelines is heard and seen, these catalysts will further enhance the rally in stocks.

Catalyst #3: To restart many of the projects, they will need funds. Foreign companies coming to JV will be big catalysts as well. Fundraising will take center stage, thus providing more climaxes for the local bourse.

Catalyst #4: Asian stocks have been a blur over the past few years. The Forest City is a sufficiently big enough idea to draw back foreign investors. Keep an eye on the level of foreign buyers in local stocks over the coming months.

Catalyst #5: Any positive announcement on the Johor-Singapore rapid transit system, in particular on the funding side, JV partners, and timeline.

(stuff like this ... in today's The EDGE CEO)

Catalyst #6: Any positive developments from Country Garden; as they have been defaulting their bonds, the designation of Forest City is a glimmer of hope; at least CG may be keen to complete the whole project, failing which the rest of the project can now at least be sold to other parties to complete (owing to its attractiveness). Any positive news concerning the above will be well regarded.

Final View: Yes, I think this has a solid chance to propel a big rally in local stocks.

Let's look at the LINKED stocks:

(Sunway's run from 1.60 to 1.90 is only a gain of 18%, judging from the factors above 2.50 should not be difficult)

(Somebody forgot to inform them, that it ran up only 9% from 1.40 to 1.52; looks to have some legs yet)

(by virtue of them being a small taikor in Johor; access to mid-priced projects; delivering very solid profits; and having substantial landbank in and around Johor; this has lots of legs; just the run from 85 sen to 1.11, a 30% gain is insufficient to account for just the spectacular profits, and we are not even talking of their Johor exposure)

(up 53% from 60 sen to 92 sen; think there are better counters to ride the coattails)

Disclaimer: This is not a call to buy or sell, just an opinion from a market watcher, please consult your dealer or remisier before any action.

Most Deep Value Stock On Bursa?

 KSL just announced its last quarterly. It was spectacular, well not just last quarter, look at the last 5 quarters. While many property companies have been suffering, KSL has been thriving, buying land cheap, diligently adding value, ... recently opening the biggest mall in Klang, the Esplanade quietly. Apa lagi lu mau...??

Look at the NTA: RM3.33 ... current share price is around RM1.00. They have been conserving cash by not paying dividends since 2015, and wisely so as to push through the difficult years for property counters.

EPS: 25.11

P/E:3.64

NTA: 3.33

Net cash company with RM348,403,000 in bank account

Retained Earnings:RM2,695,442,000(RM2.695 billion) as of 31 March 2023

Call it deep value, the stock has used its cash well. Last year it bought 54 acres of land from Tropicana in Johor for RM103m. Judging from the recent announcement for the big Johor property nugget, it was timely.

The stock can trigger a huge revaluation since the NTA is so far away: one is the attraction in going private; two is giving a 10-20 sen dividend. They have not given any since 2015. The company should reward loyalty and themselves soon.

The directors' emoluments is a bit rich. The company has not paid dividends since 2015, so the directors and owners should "suffer" alongside with shareholders. This does not look good no matter how you cut it. Yes, you made more than RM100m in net profit last year and look set to make more than RM300m this year. As a percentage of net profit, is not justifiable.

At least the company is still highly profitable.

Looking at the table, the controlling shareholders should collectively have more than 75% locked up. No point in holding so many shares unless you are going to reward yourselves or take it private.

Disclaimer: This is not a call to buy or sell, just an opinion from a market watcher, please consult your dealer or remisier before any action.

Gold Reserves / GDP - Implications

 

One can easily tabulate countries with the largest gold reserves but it is meaningless unless it is expressed as a benchmark against a relevant factor. GDP, or rather nominal GDP is a useful benchmark. It is the value of all goods and services from a country, with no taking into account the differing cost of living in other countries.

The caveat here is that China's gold reserves are actually closer to 4,000 metric tons according to many experts' newsletters. There have been too many big "unknown" transactions over the past 2 years that can only be linked to China, even though officially it was not recorded as so.

If you divide the GDP (in million) by their gold reserves you will get a pretty picture. Naturally the lower the figure the more gold you have covering your GDP. I would put 2.0-4.0 as being in an astute position, a more than adequate coverage should anything resembling a currency crisis comes about. If ever a reversion to some sort of gold standard or linkage to a gold standard following a major currency paradigm shift, those with a good gold stash relative o their economy would be sitting pretty.

Italy 0.85  - the Italian economy is in the doldrums but thankfully their central bank has amassed a sufficient gold arsenal; in the event of a dislocation of the euro, the Italians would swiftly support any kind of SDR (special drawing rights) with links to the gold standard.

Turkey 1.02 - where the economy has been battered by high-interest rates and constant devaluation but fundamentals show that Erdogan has doubled up on gold reserves over the last few years; while economic winds have not been in their favor, they kind of have a last bastion in gold reserves, which may indicate that their currency has been way oversold. The economy has to stop using USD for most of their transactions, the problem being Turkey does not have many friends to do barter trades on major transactions.

Germany 1.28 - solid fundamentals; the central bank here has protected the integrity of their economy no matter how the economic winds blow.

France 1.2 - same here.

Russia 0.89 - a deliberate strategy to buy gold over the last 10 years and more of late, indicates why Russia is championing de-dollarisation. China is definitely an ally in that strategy.

Switzerland 0.835 - is it because the country is the biggest refinery for gold; anyways, the country is a firm believer, and hence their arrogance to keep having their own Swiss franc as a solid currency exposure.

Taiwan 1.86 - for all the gangsterism in politics, the central bank has shrewdly backed itself with more than sufficient gold reserves; a political pawn in the global chess game, it has tried to shield itself from things "they can control".

------------------------

You may be able to get away with holding less in gold reserves if you are a commodity-rich country such as Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia the OPEC nations.

Australia 10.0; Malaysia 11.5; Indonesia 17.8; Brazil 16; Mexico 13.8; heck, Canada does not hold any gold reserves even cause its got tons of gold and other commodities in the ground.

-------------------------

In the comfort zone, 2.0-4.0:

USA 3.3 - for all the talk emanating from the USA in particular, on how gold is a useless thing and the gold standard should never be considered, they are holding a pretty decent amount; of course, their problem is not gold reserves but their unending printing of money and highly excessive debt levels; they do not want others to even consider de-dollarisation as a possibility but their reserves level tells us they are prepared somewhat for it.

-------------------------

Outside the comfort zone, i.e. more than 4.0 to 8.0:

China 4.8 - just outside the comfort zone but judging from the way China has been buying over the last 5 years, I think they will be headed for 3.0 within a couple of years; the country's disappointment over the US currency's reserves status, exporting of inflation, the exporting of US economic woes to developing countries via their excessive printing and liquidity injections - all points to ganging with Russia to change the status quo.

Japan 5.2 - just outside the comfort zone but I suspect their gold buying will be keener over the coming years once interest rates start to indicate more buoyant activity; the last two years have seen a deliberate strategy to weaken the yen.

India 4.3 - again India ha shored up its buying activity over the last few years and should see a similar strategy for the foreseeable future.

------------------------

Danger zone, i.e. more than 8.0:

UK 10.0 - Brown sold UK's gold reserves poorly over the years; neither is it commodity rich; the Brexit as well - I see cloudy days for the British pound over the next few years.

Argentina 11.8 - the peso was devalued 18% a few days ago; more trouble in store (which is why I think Turkish lira is presently way oversold); lacking the gold backing will limit the options you can take to recharge your economy; any printing of money will result in a disastrous and vicious cycle of devaluation.

South Korea 16.0 - This open economy is kind of vulnerable; very export-oriented but has no legs to stand on in the event of a major financial currency crisis; limit your exposure.

---------------------------

Safe to say this is a crude benchmark but it also should tell us a lot of nuanced economic survival strategies among major nations. In the event of a major currency crisis, those with sufficient gold reserves and other important commodities will have a better seat at the table. I suspect a SDR linked to major currencies/gold and other important commodities will take effect. A de-dollarisation is in effect but not as painful as anticipated in the past for USD.

p/s.   1Q2023 Gold Buying Tally