Major Asset Classes Performance

 It pays to track the returns from major asset classes following the volatility over the last two months. On a YTD basis commodities have chalked up very strong gains already on a recovering global economy, supply/demand balance, and more so logistical issues. Overall, if you look at commodities alone, you are doing very well over 1 year and 3 year basis... even the 5 year returns were credible at 7.6%p.a.

It is expected for emerging markets to be weak when there is global volatile situations. However, emerging markets stocks have been down trodden even before the war. On a 12 month basis, they have lost 9.7% already. The last 3 months just -3.3%. They did not benefit from the logistical difficulties, in fact they were bearing the brunt of it despite higher commodities' prices. Hence it would be wise to follow the "blockages" and freight rates to ascertain a better time for emerging markets. 

US stocks did well whether there was the Ukraine/Russia debacle or logistical challenges. Of course the reserve currency status played a part. The so called challenge to that status by Russia/China to destabilise that status quo however, is playing out already. Look at TIPS and US Bonds, they have lost 1.3% and 2.8% over the past 3 months respectively, and more significantly US bonds have dipped 4.4% over the past 12 months. Some of it may be due to Federal Reserve evolving stance on inflation, but there's obviously the beginning of a flight from the dollar, albeit minor for the time being. Bears watching.

The US economy looks well into recovery and could have some legs looking at the strong performance of US REITs. They returned 6.3%, 19.2% and 11.1% over a 1 month, 1 year and 3 years basis respectively. They are a good indicator of "occupancy" rates, robustness of domestic economy, and recovery from pandemic issues.