Goodbye XX%##X

 Well, I am trying damn hard to write something about Trump without using foul language. How about a nice cartoon. I absolutely detests those buggers who said "well the half of population of USA who voted for Trump were not voting for him, but they were voting against the system, the status quo of things"... To that I say, FUCK YOU, there are plenty of other ways to do that, you do not bring an imbecile to such an important position just to say "fuck you to the rest of the world".  ... goodbye XX##%&xx...

DILBERT@malaysia ...

This was done by yours truly back in 2010 when the Dilbert website still allowed visitors to do their own mashups of Dilbert comics. Sigh... nearly 10 years already, many things have changed, in particular the reference to Leeds United lol.

 

Tommy le Baker: When Passion, Tenacity, Integrity & Quality Triumphs

Cannot believe its been 10 years for Tommy le Baker. I still remember the hard slogging days when all he had was a hole in the wall (literally). But what stood out was his passion for bread making, his tenacious approach to doing it right and his way. Even when those early days was tough, barely making ends meet .. he soldiered on. He had his small but growing group of supporters and friends, but small nonetheless. You have to swallow your tears when he said in an interview that he knew many of them were patrons just to support his venture. Last thing we want is pity but they are also laced with genuine empathy.

It was always going to be an uphill climb for Tommy. Malaysians are so used to eating "air" and sugar and preservatives ladened bread - they had to be soft and last for a week at least. But that's not real bread. Herein lies his integrity, he does not ever want to "lie" to get better sales for his craft. He could have gone the Lavender or Breadstory way easily and made money and open branches.

As an artiste (musician or baker), your goodwill and followers are slowly accumulated. True talent usually doesn't garner overnight recognition. Jason Axian featured Tommy in 2 magnificent episodes a few years back. It was heart warming yet gut wrenching to trace his journey. Surely Tommy would have had greater success earlier - but it is bread we are talking about, ... not satay, curry laksa or bkt. We are talking of serving a small proportion of the public, and at the same time trying to get the majority to try and realise what real bread tastes like (its vvvg by the way).

So, here I am today at his new place in Kg Attap. A much bigger shophouse. Thankfully he didn't go modern and swanky. Its an old shoplot with no renovation. Please keep it that way. Most of us came for the bread and pastries and sandwiches and coffee. Let's not invite the social media hunters with instagram uploads as their mantra.

Its packed, and be prepared to wait ... wait for tables, wait to order... its worth it. Just as the breads went through proper and long fermentation... we can wait, its not fast food, its slow food done with integrity and superb quality. We can wait ... we should wait... we must have long conversations over coffee. Proper food done slow, we all should slow down and enjoy ... and when you know more of his journey, tenacity and values ... you appreciate the whole thing a lot more.

The handwritten menu.. and everything else tells us a lot about the man and his values: it's me, integrity, passion .. all that you see ... it's me, unvarnished, warts and all, and I am that good.

Now he has a snazzy website that does delivery as well... check it, in particular should MCO be reimposed:

https://tommylebaker.oddle.me/en_MY/

the courtyard...

love the banana muffin

toasted steak sandwich on sourdough

The original posting:

https://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2012/06/peut-etre-le-best-breadmaker-in-country.html

Countries Stock market's Capitalisation As A % Of GDP

 Why is the figure important ... if you can strip out foreign listings and non related listings (inclusive of SPACs) and maybe some REITs that are foreign or regional in nature, you get a good grasp of how much of your economy is listed. 


The higher the figure, the higher the importance of the stockmarket in feeling and shrinking economic activity. IN a super bull, Malaysian domestic economy would flourish as most people will see a lot of funds swishing around, the same when its a bear market when restaurants business dwindles sharply. The higher the figure, the more attention will the central banks and authorities pay to major fluctuations in share markets.

China, though has a lowly figure of GDP that is listed, is climbing rapidly. HK has a figure higher than 1000% because we have to strip out their China stocks listed on HKEX. If only Hongkongers realise how dependent their financial centre reputation (and business transactions) on mainland China.

Singapore has an awful lot of "foreign component REITs, and that's how their government has shaped their future.

Malaysia, is highly interlinked to our GDP... every time we see a business makes RM4-5m a year, we will try to get them listed. Though now that profit figure hurdle is higher (around RM10m a year), we are still very linked. The vibrancy of our economy has a lot to do with the vibrancy of our stock market. 

148.3 %

United States's Market Capitalization accounted for 148.3 % of its Nominal GDP in Dec 2018, compared with a percentage of 164.8 % in the previous year.

Stock market capitalization as percent of GDP, 2019 - Country rankings:

 The average for 2019 based on 58 countries was 83.64 percent.The highest value was in Hong Kong: 1338.48 percent and the lowest value was in Belarus: 0 percent. The indicator is available from 1975 to 2019. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available. 

p/s images of Candy Law Lam, 55 year old actress

There's Company Research Downgrade and then there is the (Aisayman!!!) "Company Research Downgrade"

 I have not been holding any glove stocks for the last 3 weeks. So I try to be objective here.

Fact 1: 29 May 2020, research report by Macquarie, Outperform TP RM13.10.

Fact 2: 25 August 2020, research report by Macquarie, Outperform 12 month target RM30.40.

Fact 3: 9 September 2020, research report by Macquarie Downgrade to TPRM5.40.

Fact 3: First two reports by Denise Soon. The downgrade report by Prem Jearajasingam.

Fact 4: Macquarie is one of the top covered warrants issuer in Malaysia.

Fact 5: Ex basis the RM30.40 would have been equaled to RM10.13. Which is to say the down grade wasn't just 10% or 20% in target price. The downgrade to RM5.40 was an astounding 46% cut in TP.

Fact 6: 46% cut in TP all in a matter of 15 days. Pray tell what were the variables and valuation dislocation that caused such a decision.

Bursa and SC need to look into this closely cause I am sure you have already received a lot of complaints. I guess you cannot have the same analyst do all 3 reports as that would have been tantamount to harakiri for the analyst. The change in analyst has to be questioned. Apparently, Prem is the Head of Research, and Denise has left her position. Still, Prem would have had to approve the previous reports.

The "new analyst" halved the TP on the basis that "ASP cannot sustain forever". What changed the analyst's forecast within this short 2 weeks? Did he suddenly talk to industry leaders worldwide to realise that ASP will not last forever? 

Analysts/research heads have very little power as they do not bring in the big bucks. Before investors focus their ire on them, remember that. But this does not feel right. It leaves a very bad taste in our mouths. The integrity of the markets and the participants are at stake. We need answers and clarity.

THE FUNNIEST THING ... and its a big mistake by Macquarie... look at the table for projections. The first table was the upgrade to TPRM30.40. The estimated revenue for 2021 and 2022 were RM12.14bn and RM7.413bn respectively. Reported profit for 2021 and 2022 were RM4.646bn and RM850m respectively.

THE DOWNGRADE REPORT projected revenue for 2021 and 2022 to RM19.058bn and RM9.023bn respectively. The expected profit for 2021 and 2022 were RM10.259bn and RM2.022bn respectively.

How da-macha? The massive downgrade report had a substantive upgrade in revenue and profit. SUDDENLY the valuation parameters changed???

It is not even funny, when within 15 days one can revised the profit UPWARDS from 4.64bn to 10.259bn (+110%) for 2021 and from 850m to 2.022bn (+138%) for 2022 ... and at the same report downgrade the TP from RM10.13 to RM5.40 (-46%).

Please explain.

YAZ:  The way this particular report is laid out also isn't comprehensive. The analyst showed his different assumptions for FYE20 - FYE22, including all baseline figures (revenue, profit, et al). But then he gives his base case price target based on FY23 earnings, which is not stated in the report. Kindly go kira yourself it seems! Then in an impressive of cover your ass (CYA) mentality, he also outlines two other cases on page 2 of the report. Bull case shows a price target of RM20.40 based on multiples of FYe22 earnings! (FYE22, not FYE23!) Finally his bear case of RM2.80 shows the price target based on multiples of FYE21 earnings! Shenme the f**k! Is he saying then his house is giving price targets of RM2.80, RM20.40 and RM5.40, based on the estimated earnings for FYE21, FYE22, and FYE23? Since there's a time lag dilation between expected results and price movements (in a rational market), it's up to the investor to use their own respective crystal balls to target their entry points lah, based on the estimated price targets provided by this house. The part that's amazing though, his main target price catalyst (as shown on page 1 of this report) is: 12-month price target RM5.40 based on a PER methodology. And that PER methodology is based on FYE23 earnings! Holy sweet bejesus. You're ascribing a target based on financial results for the year ending August 2023. Buy today because my estimate for what is 3 full financial year results away starting from after FY20 shows a downtrend. If one assumes glove stocks is going to rebound (and it probably will with the upcoming results, albeit to what extent up to the individual to figure out lah), he's going to have to eat humble pie. And it really makes one wonder if there's really a Chinese wall between the research side and the other divisions in his house.

Why Waste Time On Fund Managers & Other Experts

   

“Economists, when faced with a conflict between theory and evidence, discard the theory. Stockbrokers discard the evidence.” 

Some people are obessed with "beating the market". I mean, it is just beating a mean average of a basket of stocks. It means in a normal class of smart ones, savants, the humdrum and idiots ... the very middle of the class. You'd think  being happy is being in 25th position out of a class of 50??? Hence, the index is not even a "very hard level", its the average of the mediocre. 

And yet ... the majority, ..no, no... the vast majority of professional fund managers and so called experts FAIL to beat the S&P500 year in year out. Still, textbooks and business schools prescribe fundamental valuations, various models to measure risk and performance, blah, blah ... just so we can probably underperform the index.

How hard is it. S&P500 is just 500 stocks. It is not studying for a 5 year medical degree. So why is the media, our parents, the biz journalists, the big corporates ... all still kowtowing to these professionals for opinions and soundbites. Just go and watch 10 minutes of Bloomberg TV or CNBC, and know full well that the majority of these people cannot even outperform the index. 

If Mercedes Benz produces cars that almost always barely make the mean average of car quality..., even with their marketing efforts, I am sure the car company would tank. Why is the public giving so much room for forgiveness to these business experts (and yes, you can put chartists in that group too).

This table above is even more damning. Its not that I just simply select a year to whack these funds. Go take any year, any kind of table summation - it is consistently the same result. Only, this one is more galling. You can spend USD100,000-150,000 a year for 2 or 3 years to learn about management, business strategies, valuations, to gain the latest advancements and theories on processes, marketing and companies ... so that you can underperform the index.

Look at these huge fund managers. These are the managers selected by the so called best business minds, I mean they are the gurus of business world. Its a bit like the USA presidency, you set up debates, other vetting obstacles and hurdles, primaries ... blah blah... and you still come up with a Trump.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/3-big-actively-managed-mutual-funds-that-are-beating-the-s-p-500-51573842353  Nearly all of the top 20 actively managed equity mutual funds in the U.S., as ranked by assets, are behind the S&P 500 index’s 23.2% return through October. All but three, that is. The market beaters— Fidelity Growth Company (ticker: FDGRX), Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX), and T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth (RPMGX)—are also topping the S&P 500 over the past one and five years. The Fidelity and T. Rowe Price funds are ahead for the past 10 years, as well, Morningstar data show. All three benefit from having long-tenured portfolio managers. Only one, Vanguard Dividend Growth, is open to new investors, however.

 “Why does indexing outmaneuver the best minds on Wall Street? Paradoxically, it is because the best and brightest in the financial community have made the stock market very efficient. When information arises about individual stocks or the market as a whole, it gets reflected in stock prices without delay, making one stock as reasonably priced as another. Active managers who frequently shift from security to security actually detract from performance (vs. an index fund) by incurring transaction costs.” ~Burton Malkiel, Professor, Princeton

FEES

This often cited excuse for under performance. The various fees in a trade kills the returns, they say. The more you trade, the worse it gets. Fair enough. Just how big are the fees, esp in USA where zero commissions is the norm.

TAXES

Taxes are another major barrier to beating the market. When you pay tax on your investment returns, you lose a significant percentage of your profit. The capital gains tax rate is 15% to 20%, unless your income is very low. And that's the tax on investments held for at least one year. Stocks held for a shorter-term are taxed as ordinary income.

THE MOST PLAUSIBLE REASON

To me, the most plausible reason for active fund managers underperforming the benchmark is investors' psychology. Market psychology is very difficult to predict properly. A super computer can predict and manage risk by rebalancing the portfolio almost automatically. But how to gauge and react to the "fear of missing out", the rush to thematic plays, the inability to stay true to the "buy low sell high" mantra owing to "market noise".

WHAT ABOUT ....

What about Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, etc ... They may be unicorns. They may be the 2% who can beat the market. Or most likely, they have SUPERIOR INFORMATION FLOW. Yes, I am not trying to belittle their market savvy or brain power ... Initially they may do well when they are small in fund size, to continue to do well when they get much bigger (e.g. USD500m or more), you need access to superior information flow. Everyone in the industry knows that the market is never the same for ALL. Some people somewhere will always be slightly ahead of the curve.

Experts who can read and predict trends and turns are very few. I like Taleb (Black Swans) and El-Erian (Allianz/PIMCO). Many can regurgitate expert sounding terms and articulate safe statements. Some scream out their shock statements just to stand out but have no pull. The key is to present your thoughts clearly and the process of arriving to their conclusions must be persuasive. It has to be logically persuasive, you can feel it in your gut. It is the discipline to search for the most plausible reasoning process and eliminating the rest, and having that opinion or platform being challenged to more vigorous counter arguments.

The ultimate study... over a 15 year period, 92%-97% of all funds, big or small, did not manage to beat their respective benchmarks.

MY VIEW

In my opinion, it is clear that there are so many more super performers, just that they happen to be individuals. In a world where the normal index gains just 5%-15% a year, I am so certain there are plenty who got 50%-500% a year. They may be fundamentals worshippers, trend players, chartists, momentum driven traders, special events traders, etc... YOU CAN ONLY DO SUPERIOR OUTPERFORMANCE when you are SMALLISH IN SIZE OF FUNDS! Remember that. 

Being small allows you to take very few swings at the bat, thus easier to pick home runs. When you get big, a fund will find it very hard to outperform because you cannot just put 30% into one stock. You will not be able to access stocks that are too small in market capitalisation. You may find some companies cannot take your minimum liquidity sizing. 

Besides being small, it is very likely you can get superior returns by investing in smaller companies cause the bigger ones are crowded and filled with too many old crocs.

It is also the same when you are doing individual investing. Its easier to get supernormal returns when your portfolio size is 1 million or less. As you get to say 20 million or 50 million it gets a lot harder.

So, my advice to private investors. Invest on your own if you want superior returns but make sure you arm yourself with the necessary knowledge, weapons, sector knowledge and updated information flow. If you want to get big returns, do it yourself and usually never with big caps, stay with the medium or small caps.

If you can't get good results, maybe private investing is not for you. Pick an
index fund and go do other things.

The Unbearable Unfairness Of Being A Broking Firm & Glove Counters Outlook

 

This bull run is more likely to be screwed up by the brokers themselves than genuine external economics.

The reason is simple: they have too much power in shifting the goalposts.

NO CONTRA ON GLOVE COUNTERS

The leaders (glove counters) started to weaken on Russian vaccine news last Thursday. However the glove counters plus small caps continued the weakness on Friday on news that ONE broker is going to institute NO CONTRA trades on glove counters on Monday. No contra means, you can't sell on first two days - you have to pick them up first. Conversely it means T+1, which is you pay on the day you buy, then you can sell on second day.

Bursa Malaysia said on its website that contra dealing is not a right of the client but rather a privilege accorded by the stockbroking company to its clients.

"This means that the stockbroking company is not obliged to allow contra dealing facilities for all its clients,” Bursa said.

I understand all that but to call it a privilege is a bit much. After all, when they solicit your business, the brokers won't tell you "hey, we can do T+1 or T+2 or T+0 (designated counters)". When a broker has the right to shift the goalposts, that is a huge "incentive" to front run (or in this case sell all your positions first) before announcing the rule change. Can we have a verification that that did not happen?

This has to do with the integrity and trustworthiness of the system and the brokers. Do not hide behind the rules that says you can. Brokers and regulators must do more than that to maintain trustworthiness and integrity, and not treat investors like trash.

The other probable reason is even worse, that the broker themselves do not have the balance sheet to fund the trades. OMG, that would be so bad. Not enough capital, don't play this game.

MARGIN LIMIT GIVEN ON CERTAIN COUNTERS

We have seen this a couple of times over the past few months. Mainly affected the glove related counters. Again all brokers are allowed to set the maximum upper price limits for all counters. Again they have the right to move the goalposts whenever they feel like it. Again, we do not know if the brokers and its employees and traders "traded ahead with that knowledge" at the expense of the rest of the market players.

What is galling is that the same brokers can reduce the limits, and yet the same house can issue a BUY research report on same stock/s for 80%-120% higher than the margin limit price???

I know one is risk management and the other is investment banking. But they are under one broker company. If the risk side says a stock margin limit is RM10.00, how are we to take the research report with a target fair price at RM22.00???!!!!

but wait ... THEY CAN ALSO RAISE BACK THE LIMITS ON AN AD HOC BASIS ... which they did within weeks.

Then some of them can also raise the upper limits of the same stocks within weeks. As you can see, the one making up the rules ad hoc basis stands to gain a lot - IF they inform certain parties in their own company (fund managers, top remisiers, top proprietary day traders, etc..). We don't know. Nobody seems to care. 

Basis Of Anger

a) when a broker says it is contra it only means T+2, it is not T+7 as before ... T+2 also you get scared??? I mean each client is given a buy limit BASED on shares/cash they have, and usually will not be more than 100% of that. So you already have coverage. Compared to the 90s, when the same broker offered T+7 on almost nothing.

b) when the broker who institute no contra on glove counters, did they do likewise on their proprietary day traders??? All PDTs are on T+1basis. Why not ask them to pick up first then sell as well to be fair.

GLOVE COUNTERS

I have to state that I do not have any glove counters now or even traded them for the last 2 weeks. If anything I can't pull myself to buy them at current prices but it seems everybody who was or is an analyst/economist/market commentator/business journalist .. would like to bash the rally.

Yes it makes little sense on fundamentals. When you start comparing them to overtaking Maybank, Public Bank etc... you know you are grasping at straws.

I would like to say that this entire bull run was started thanks to the MCO (and the likes) and the deluge of liquidity offered by various governments and central banks. Malaysia has been lucky to have at least the glove related sector generating real profits. They are easy targets to criticise when they rise and rise, and more people develop green eye envy as they did not get a slice of the action.

It is not their doing. The market has NO OTHER SECTOR with that kind of profits visibility. Naturally all spotlights are on them. 

Are all the articles nowadays being fair, they just bash and bash. You can raise some cautionary flags but look at the bigger picture. We so needed the current bull run, it more than saved the rest of the economy.

Some 300,000 new CDS accounts were opened over the past 3 months. This rally ensured the beneficiaries was broad based to all across the retail participants and not just the elites.

MY VIEW ON GLOVE COUNTERS

The current euphoria is nothing new. Not every glove sold gets used. No one knows what is the stock build up or backorder throughout the entire distribution channel. And it is normal when demand outstrip supply, people order more than what they need (hence ASP increase) to avoid the possibility of shortage later. So this buildup/backlog can reach a point where one day any slow down in demand or every players along the distrbution channel realised they got too much stocks and stop ordering, you'll suddenly see orders collapsing.

But the top 5 fellas already have orders secured as far out as 2 years. That means no matter how you DO NOT LIKE GLOVE, these top 5 fellas will be reporting exceptional profits for at least the next 4 quarters. It is not going to a straight line rally but these bouts of correction are needed and healthy for the run. Let them run, and they will correct every now and then, BUT DON'T LET THE CORRECTION BE MAN-MADE (like the two rules cited above).

Can Top Glove reach RM50... maybe. I am looking at a fertile ground for at least another 12 months. Just citing Top Glove, I think it can be around RM25-28 before going ex for bonus. the next 9-12 months will see it trying to gain back to RM20 on an ex basis (or RM40 on a pre basis).

How it will all end. Everybody is ramping up capacity. There are new entrants who will come in within 2-3 years. Once the top 5 start to drop ASP, you can see a huge collapse. 12-16 months out when the order pile up starts shrinking and ASPs starts to drop, even Top Glove can go back to RM5-8 ex basis or (RM10-16 pre basis). That is still much higher than where it was 6 months ago.

The top few can survive and in a fight they can drop prices to even a slight loss to kill off all the small players, and they will do it that way. Only by killing and absorbing them can you "maintain" future prices. Hence all small players will get trampled two years out.

Gloves is like a commodity, there can only be a few players, full stop.

The Bursa Bull Market - Prognosis & Ramifications

PROGNOSIS

When Covid19 started baring its fangs, many countries imposed MCO, and the general belief was that EVERYTHING should be down and out. Many certainly believed that equity markets were a sure write off for the rest of the year. 

Not only Covid19, we also had the unnecessary plunge in oil prices to boot.

What happened was confounding. Not only did equity not tank and die, but they also staged a remarkable turnaround, unleashing a liquidity surge like a dam being cracked open. Who saw that coming?

Governments and central banks opened their wallets. While a substantial portion of the real economy is still in tatters, the stock market went off on its own tangent. I did turn bullish too a couple of months back, and as in any proper bull markets, there will be excesses.

THE NEW PLAYERS

But no one really predicted the deluge of interest locally. Initially we were launched into orbit via the glove makers. Given that that is almost the one sole sector showing signs of real profits. It started off innocently enough. Soon, new retail players started to join in. Was it because of boredom owing to the MCO? We will never really know but apparently from March till now, some 300,000 new CDS accounts were opened!!! 

Bursa and Sc were worried over the last 10 years over the declining number of retail participants. The average age of private investors were rising from 35 to 45 and if nothing new happened, soon the average age of retail investors will be 50. It appears that the generation reaching 20-30 from 2005-2019 had absolutely no interest in stock markets.

Bursa did plenty of roadshows, seminars, engaging speakers, even going to university ... but to little effect. What happened in one fell swoop, the younger generation all surged into the markets.

Hence the quality and roadmap of this bull run has taken a different trajectory from other bull runs of the past 20 years. We now have a more than substantive group with almost zero experience with limit ups, daily market corrections of more than 100, 200 points, limited appreciation of the role of syndicates and day traders.

In many ways, this bull run is not like any other bull run before on KLSE. We thought the markets can never return to the vibrancy mode of the 90s. Well, its stronger than the 90s in many ways. The volatility is there but nowhere as bad on the downside than during the roaring 90s. One explanation was that in the 90s, probably 50-60% of the trades were on margin WITH ZERO COLLATERAL. Hence any quivering will see dramatic sell downs.

These days, sell downs still happen but they were brief and easily supported. Hence in this sense the quality and sustainability of the retail funds this round is more solid. Nobody is buying with zero collateral.

How different are the new accounts?

- Internet media / guru led: Instead of using phones to disseminate information and tip back in the 90s, the trend is a lot quicker now, chat groups, telegrams .. tips can easily go viral.

- Substantive numbers have zero knowledge of past corrections. Little knowledge of how syndicates and PDTs operate - in some cases, that is a good thing.

- Less reliance on remisier: They used to be gatekeepers. During heady days, you can't even get through to your remisier ( and they have 3 phone lines mind you). Now internet trading makes it swifter, and you don't have to go through your dealers' "eyes roll" with your choices.

During the highs of the 90s we can boast of 2-4 counters limiting up a day. My gawd, we had 11 counters limit up yesterday!!!

NOTE TO FINANCE MINISTRY

While it is speculative at the moment, the powers to be SHOULD NOT stamp out the current market momentum. For one, the last 3 months have more than INJECTED SUFFICIENT STIMULUS, MONEY VELOCITY into the economy to more than cover the contractions owing to the prolonged ill effects of Covid19/MCO.

This will not only save the government coffers billions of ringgit in unnecessary stimulus packages but will help "redivert government funds" to other affected sectors not benefitting from the market boom.

Let's just see how much "money" has or can flow to the economy. Let's just look at the glove related sector. Let's just assume 20% of shares were traded by retail and gains were pocketed. 

CAREPLUS   540m shares  20% x 5.10 = RM550m

HLT   525m   20% x 2.30 = RM241.5m

SUPERMAX    1.3bn   20% x 21.00 = RM5.46bn

TOP GLOVE   2.7bn  20% x 22.00 = RM11.88bn

HARTA    3.4bn   20% x 13.00 = RM8.84bn

That's just a few, and that's like more than RM28bn ... imagine a stimulus program announced to inject RM28bn. Coupled with the run on small caps, we are looking at an approximate figure of RM35bn thus far. It doesn't stretch the government's coffers of debt burden.

That conservative RM35bn has a velocity of money factor into the real economy. Depending on which economist you ask, its 5x-8x value to the real economy. Simply said, the monies will be primarily used in the economy and spending flows, it trickles down the line.

Hence it is totally silly to even think of imposing a windfall tax on glove makers. How much can the government get? Assume they make RM3bn this year, taxing 10% is only RM300m ... but you will impact gravely on the market run. Collectively they have already "injected" RM28bn into the real economy, and even more in coming months ... do you really want to derail all that for RM300m. What can you do with RM300m a year? They are doing R28bn stimulus thus far. So think properly.

The worst thing to do is to save up the gains or used to pay down debt to the banks as banks are still very wary and hence the flow of funds stops at the banks currently.

300,000 new CDS accounts, what you are having is a broad based rally benefitting an awful lot of people. It is not an elite club. It goes a long way to energising the real economy.

WHAT ABOUT THE BUST

When it happens, it happens, just don't prick it with man-made methods. Presently only things such as reduction of margin will shock the market lower. Brokers have already rules to protect themselves, no need to kill the goose laying golden eggs. It is not like the 90s, all brokers have adequate protection on their remixers, dealers and margin lines as they are.

There are a lot of positives on the current market. The only bad mouthers are those who do not have a position and is willing a correction. Of course the exuberance caused many silly counters to sillier prices. Let it be, its part of a bull market. There will be excesses. All our accounts have margin limits. No one will die this round unless you borrow from Ah Long.

Circuit Breakers

Well, it did catch almost everyone by surprise. The announcement by Bursa to have a ceiling price for a few counters. It is a long-standing rule, it wasn't invented on an ad hoc basis. First of all, I don't think any of the normal "metrics" were broken: e.g. lots of trades being rolled over; suspicious trades to move prices higher, etc... One can see that the buying was genuine and the retail army was very formidable.

According to Bursa rulings, when a stock or warrant hits a limit up or limit down for two consecutive trading days, "as the case may be on the next market day, the exchange may maintain the trading price at the last done price of the previous market day for such period as specified by the exchange"

"MAY" is the key word. Kudos to Bursa for doing so.

Even after a few bouts of "proper correction" in the gloves sector, the band marches on. Some of that retail liquidity moved into small caps and soon a bull market reminiscent of the 90s was born. Apparently, some 3m new CDS accounts were opened over the last few months. Something unthinkable has happened. When Covid19 started baring its fangs, many countries imposed MCO, and the general belief was that EVERYTHING should be down and out. Many certainly believed that equity markets were a sure write off for the rest of the year.

What happened was confounding. Not only did equity not tank and die, but they also staged a remarkable turnaround, unleashing a liquidity surge like a dam being cracked open. Who saw that coming?

Governments and central banks opened their wallets. While a substantial portion of the real economy is still in tatters, the stock market went off on its own tangent. I did turn bullish too a couple of months back, and as in any proper bull markets, there will be excesses.

The Bursa rule, to me, is right and proper. Daily volumes were hitting record levels and being broken again and again. A genuine exchange may just be a conduit to transact trades. If trades were genuine, no one should stop them. Alas, we are in an imperfect world, where herd mentality and over-exuberance can cause untold ramifications if not held in check.

That is why most markets have circuit breakers, to prevent a stampede. To provide a cooling-off period when things get silly. Greed and crowd mania can be very bad things when they get out of hand. 

I am not saying markets need correction but let's all take a breath, step back, and reassess. Circuit breakers are there to SAVE OURSELVES from ourselves. 

Feed Service Platform Providers, Buck Up Please

This data collection is about as raw as it can get. Trading platforms keep malfunctioning or not functioning at all at the worst times. The providers cannot keep saying they did not expect such volume throughput. BULLSHIT!!!

Just take the biggest ever daily volume traded and budget it by multiplying by 2.... that should be your system's tolerance. Anything else is irresponsible.

Apologies to D Chia who took the brief survey, although sample size is small, I think its VERY REFLECTIVE of the reality.

 Don't mind Bursa making tons, don't mind paying this fee and that fee to do a TRANSACTION... but please la... not first time, not second time... this is like Tenaga brownouts la. At least TNB offer discounts... c'mon Bursa... you are the gatekeeper that ALLOWED the two buggers to provide feed, nobody else.... Do things better la., record profits but treat the players like chicken shit, for want of a better word.

Don't blame the brokers, you also cannot blame the service providers... you can only blame the GATEKEEPER, who allowed the service providers to provide such service to all clients for such a long time, without a SOUND OF PROTEST, DISSATISFACTION, COMPLAIN ON BEHALF OF USERS...

So who should be answerable to this poor level of service ... but who is always applauding record daily volumes no end... please help us help you, or help you help me. Well, somebody should have done something, and that something should HAVE BEEN SOLVED MONTHS AGO.

Its a situation so prevalent. If it happens ONCE a year, no bother... tell me how often has it occurred. DON'T KILL THE MESSENGER.

a) why only 2 providers. 
b) if its a cost-profit solution, fine ... then why is there NO PUBLIC REPRIMAND, or fine for subsequent and many glitches and failures of the trading platform???
c) are the 2 providers unable to provide the quite simple level of technology transaction?... I mean, its just minimal stocks (in Malaysia), one market and pretty straight forward ... I mean, last count, there are nearly a hundred exchanges. What makes ours so unique that we cannot solve the problem properly ... at least tell us.
d) stop the PR about how to improve fund raising n other capital market issues  blah blah when this very fundamental service also not up to par. Seriously, this has been dragging its feet for so long. If not, I won't be using such harsh language.

More About This Blog's Sponsor

The blog was started in 2007 and I have loathed having advertisers or sponsors for my blog. I now have a proper site sponsor because I believe in the product and have consumed it myself. I find that it mirrors the claims it expounds and is effective to treat andropause.

Blog sponsor: Andropause Succor

https://andropausesuccor.com/

THE MAKING OF ANDROPAUSE SUCCOR

We recognize that andropause was a serious issue among men above the age of 40 but not much attention has been paid to address the issue when compared to say, menopause and its remedies.


Presently, a lot of people take testosterone booster and/or artificial testosterone injections (gels and creams included), which we believe has its limitations. They attempt to address the symptoms rather than the cause. It is like taking Viagra but not addressing why poor erections happen in the first place.

We wanted a holistic remedy to andropause and would stay herbal and organic as much as possible in the formulation. The platform which we build our formulation rest on being anti-inflammatory and better heart health.

Not a week goes by that I am not asked about testosterone levels. Especially one of the following questions:

—”How can I raise my testosterone?”

—”Can supplements actually boost testosterone?”

—”How do I know if I have low testosterone?”

The questions are endless. Testosterone is a hot marketing area for men, that strikes at the core of machismo and male health. Attach testosterone to any product with some hyperbole, and you can market it effectively.

But truth be told, testosterone levels are critical for male health. Low testosterone causes:

Low energy
Low sex drive
Low strength
Anxiety, depression, and general lethargy
There are no advantages to having low testosterone. Zero. Nada. In fact, hypogonadism (which is when your body is not producing enough testosterone) is linked to:

Alzheimer’s disease
Dementia
Cardiovascular disease
Recent research even points to low testosterone being a precipitating factor for prostate cancer.

With all this in mind, it’s concerning that testosterone levels have been dropping in men worldwide for decades.

The reasons for this are legion:

Environmental endocrine disruptors, plastics, contaminants; lack of sunlight and solar radiation; lack of key micronutrients, skewed diets; lack of exercise, lack of sleep, increased stress; the list is long.

And this drop in testosterone is not only seen in humans, but animals as well. Across the world, environmental pollutants are affecting animal life and disrupting sex hormones.

The pragmatic reality is this:

Our environments and lifestyles do affect our bodies. And many men are slowly castrating themselves through their lifestyles.

Increasing your testosterone levels, and thus your general vitality, should be of paramount focus for all men.

High testosterone levels are a representation of overall good health.

You have everything to lose and nothing to gain by ignoring your hormone levels.

What Can You Expect

1-2 weeks:  Better quality erections (hardness and ability to stay up longer)
                  More energetic and positive
                  Higher libido (sex drive)
                  Heightened metabolism
                  Less irritability and mood swings
                  Better quality sleep
                  More motivated and focused

Longer Term:   Stops hair loss
                      Less visceral fats
                      Retention of muscle mass
                      Better joints strength
                      Reduction in bone loss and danger of having osteoporosis
                      Elevated testosterone
                      Higher sperm count
                      Less lethargy and better temperament


Tongkat Ali (extra potency)

We required Longjack (Eurycoma longifolia), a confirmed libido booster. Longjack, also known as Tongkat ali and pasak bumi, is a shrub hailing from Southeast Asia purporting to improve libido. It’s gaining traction in the scientific community for potentially increasing testosterone levels, and researchers at South Africa’s University of the Western Cape found that longjack improved testosterone levels and muscular strength in physically active seniors (a population with typically low testosterone).

The bulk of what is presently available is non-descript. Our manufacturing facility has patented a new way of extraction, using nano tech and sonification to extract up to 5x better - the process is already being patented.

What is TRT?

Testosterone Replacement Therapy (TRT) uses artificial androgens (think synthetic steroids) to try and raise testosterone levels. As the Mayo Clinic notes, they’re still being evaluated for safety and effectiveness, but it’s an option to discuss with your doctor.

Other researchers at the National University of Malaysia have gone so far as suggesting that, after further study, longjack could be used as an alternative approach to testosterone replacement therapy (TRT).

That said, a group of researchers at the National University of Malaysia did a systemic literature review of longjack, looking for clinical research that demonstrated a relationship between the shrub and testosterone levels. 

Cordyceps (tung-chung-chou in Cantonese)

Animal and lab studies suggest Cordyceps have the potential to improve heart health and fight inflammation, cancer, diabetes and aging. Again, we try to come up with a formulation that does not just deal with the symptoms. For example, Viagra is used to help people who have trouble maintaining a strong erection or have trouble lasting sufficiently long enough to complete the act. That does not address why/what caused the poor erections in the first place.

We believe in raising testosterone naturally. We wanted the other complementary body functions to be revitalised as well when generating more testosterone. Hence anti-inflammation and better heart health is a platform which we stand on.


Pomegranate

Pomegranate is a potent antioxidant. This fruit is rich in flavonoids, anthocyanins, punicic acid, ellagitannins, alkaloids, fructose, sucrose, glucose, simple organic acids, and other components and has antiatherogenic, antihypertensive, and anti-inflammatory properties. Pomegranate can be used in the prevention and treatment of several types of cancer, cardiovascular disease, osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, and other diseases. In addition, it improves wound healing and is beneficial to the reproductive system. 

Zinc

We wanted the best testosterone booster to contain Zinc — an important mineral for fertility. Zinc is little more of a nice-to-have ingredient than a must-have. It’s on our radar as an ingredient that possibly boosts testosterone levels, and while we couldn’t find enough supporting evidence that taking zinc would increase natural testosterone, low zinc levels have been connected to infertility. 

A low zinc level is also possibly a sign of hypogonadism. The closest support we found is in a study which found that people recovered from nutritional deficiency-related problems more quickly if they took a zinc supplement than those who did not. Zinc is available in many foods, such as oysters, fortified breakfast cereals, and red meat.

Zinc also has an upper limit. The NIH recommends that adults should not take more than 40mg of zinc per day, and notes that even moderately high zinc intake levels can be harmful. Hence our dosage has been kept safe within the limits set.

Every vitamin, mineral, and ingredient that affects the human body can be taken in enough quantities that they are harmful, or toxic, even the ones that — at lower levels — are beneficial or necessary. Unfortunately, testosterone boosters contain a lot of ingredients that are not well understood. This means in addition to not being able to confirm whether certain ingredients increase testosterone, the scientific and medical communities also don’t know at what levels many ingredients become toxic. 


Last Words

As with any supplements we are careful with the claims we make. We stopped short of saying it is an anti-aging remedy. However as you can read from the above treatise, it is very much a remedy to help us age better. Informal trials among tested subjects indicate that. We hope you will too benefit from it.