Debunking The Myth & Aura Of French Wines - Its Just Prejudice & Self Inflated Ego

Every ten years or so, we will see the nouveau rich clambering over themselves to get a heady collection of French wines and try to outbid each other for the latest release from the first growths in France. I find it a bit infantile and elicit a lot of head shaking from the over-enthusiasm over French wines.

Its not that they are not great, they can be. Its like fuckers who smoke cigars and just stick to Cubans because popular culture tells them thats the only thing worth smoking - BULLSHIT ... same with French wines - they are very good but you would miss out on so many wonderful nuances of wines from other countries if you held onto your biases.

So, who perpetuates the myth that French wines are superior? The French themselves of course. the whole French language and character of the country cause a romance that stirs the air. Their well known arrogance and pooh-pooh anything not-French kind of exacerbated the snootiness - which I don't understand why the rest of the world stupidly clamours for??!!

Single malt whiskey is a lot more democratic. Sure you get your old Scottish or Irish die-hards who would never venture out of their Speysides for their preferred poison. Single malts, a most egalitarian drink - thats probably because the Scots and Irish folks are not so full of themselves like the croissant. Thats because the Scots and Irish fols are less of an asshole than the French in general. But, most whiskey drinkers would accord great respect to any new great distillery. Besides Ireland and Scotland, knowledgeable drinkers now gladly add the fantastic Japanese, even India, and the new boy Taiwan to the fold.


Because these new fuckers won the international competitions, and the global tasters agreed wholeheartedly. For the French wine mafias, they will come up with 101 defence stances for losing to Californian wines.

NOT ONCE!!!

NOT TWICE!!!

NOT JUST THREE TIMES!!!

NOT JUST IN PARIS ...

The best palates in the world ... could not hold onto their biases. And when they lost, again and again, they are silly kids refusing to eat their greens. Enough la, French fuckers and French lovers...its just wine, not your grand-daddy's ashes!

Again, its not that French wines are not good, they are good but do not go stupidly gaga over them, and the much higher prices they command ... There are many rich people who would still insist on being French favouring BECAUSE thats what sommeliers tell them (well, they are mostly all fucking French trained) ... there is a lot at stake for the wine merchants, the sommeliers, the Frenchies to keep French wine as a snob product, so don't jump in with the bunch of ninkampoos.

The old rich were largely brought up by "European culture" as the gold standard, much like French fine dining. What I am trying to say is that even French fine dining had to come down a few notches with the emergence of brilliant chefs from USA, Australia, Japan, Denmark, Norway, Spain ... can you imagine if the Michelins still stuck to an all French fucking directory??!!

The French oenophiles like us to forget the many blind tasting competitions ... BECAUSE they only know French wines well, so if I am schooled in the Latin language of course I am going to try to preserve Latin as a cool thing cause thats my forte - I will try to defend it no matter how silly the arguments are. 

Failing at that, they will say aah... French wines has history, its like a romance, you fall in love with a woman, you don't compare whether she is the perfect woman or better woman ... Aaah spoken like a loser!!!

At the end of it all... just drink la, don't use your little knowledge to LORD OVER THE REST.

(The contest has to be Californian wines vs French because the product is closely matched in nuances. If its a big Aussie red, the tasters would have no problem identifying them outright).

THE JUDGMENT OF PARIS

The Paris Wine Tasting of 1976 or the Judgment of Paris was a wine competition organized in Paris on 24 May 1976 by Steven Spurrier, a British wine merchant, in which French judges carried out two blind tastingcomparisons: one of top-quality Chardonnays and another of red wines (Bordeaux wines from France and Cabernet Sauvignon wines from California).^[1] A Californian wine rated best in each category, which caused surprise as France was generally regarded as being the foremost producer of the world's best wines. Spurrier sold only French wine and believed that the California wines would not win.^[2]

The eleven judges were (in alphabetical order):

• Pierre Brejoux (French) of the Institute of Appellations of Origin
• Claude Dubois-Millot (French) (Substitute to Christian Millau)
• Michel Dovaz (French) of the Wine Institute of France
• Patricia Gallagher (American) of l'Academie du Vin
• Odette Kahn (French) Editor of La Revue du vin de France
• Raymond Oliver (French) of the restaurant Le Grand Véfour
• Steven Spurrier (British)
• Pierre Tari (French) of Chateau Giscours
• Christian Vanneque (French) the sommelier of Tour D'Argent
• Aubert de Villaine (French) of the Domaine de la Romanée-Conti
• Jean-Claude Vrinat (French) of the Restaurant Taillevent

Average Original grades: out of 20 points.

Rank	Grade	Wine	Vintage	Origin
1.	14.14	Stag's Leap Wine Cellars	1973	USA
2.	14.09	Château Mouton-Rothschild	1970	France
3.	13.64	Château Montrose	1970	France
4.	13.23	Château Haut-Brion	1970	France
5.	12.14	Ridge Vineyards Monte Bello	1971	USA
6.	11.18	Château Leoville Las Cases	1971	France
7.	10.36	Heitz Wine Cellars Martha's Vineyard	1970	USA
8.	10.14	Clos Du Val Winery	1972	USA
9.	9.95	Mayacamas Vineyards	1971	USA
10.	9.45	Freemark Abbey Winery	1969	USA

White wines[edit]

California Chardonnays vs. Burgundy Chardonnays Average Original grades: out of 20 points.

Rank	Grade	Wine	Vintage	Origin
1.		Chateau Montelena	1973	USA
2.		Meursault Charmes Roulot	1973	France
3.		Chalone Vineyard	1974	USA
4.		Spring Mountain Vineyard	1973	USA
5.		Beaune Clos des Mouches Joseph Drouhin	1973	France
6.		Freemark Abbey Winery	1972	USA
7.		Batard-Montrachet Ramonet-Prudhon	1973	France
8.		Puligny-Montrachet Les Pucelles Domaine Leflaive	1972	France
9.		Veedercrest Vineyards	1972	USA
10.		David Bruce Winery	1973	USA

Tasting replications[edit]

Some critics^[7] argued that French red wines would age better than the California reds, so this was tested.

San Francisco Wine Tasting of 1978[edit]

The San Francisco Wine Tasting of 1978 was conducted 20 months after the Paris Wine Tasting of 1976. Steven Spurrier flew in from Paris to participate in the evaluations, which were held at the Vintners Club.^[8][3]

On January 11, 1978, evaluators blind-tasted the same Chardonnays tasted earlier in Paris.

1.  USA – 1974 Chalone Winery
2.  USA – 1973 Chateau Montelena
3.  USA – 1973 Spring Mountain Vineyard
4.  France – 1972 Puligny-Montrachet Les Pucelles Domaine Leflaive.

Ranking lower were Meursault Charmes Roulot 1973, Beaune Clos des Mouches Joseph Drouhin 1973, and Batard-Montrachet Ramonet-Prudhon 1973.

On January 12, 1978, evaluators blind-tasted the same Cabernet Sauvignons tasted earlier in Paris.

1.  USA – 1973 Stag's Leap Wine Cellars
2.  USA – 1970 Heitz Wine Cellars Martha’s vineyard
3.  USA – 1971 Ridge Vineyards Monte Bello
4.  France – 1970 Château Mouton Rothschild.

Ranking lower were Château Montrose 1970, Château Haut-Brion 1970, and Château Leoville Las Cases 1971.

French Culinary Institute Tasting of 1986[edit]

Two tastings were conducted by the French Culinary Institute (now called the International Culinary Center) on the tenth anniversary of the original Paris Wine Tasting. White wines were not evaluated in the belief that they were past their prime.^{[citation needed]}

Steven Spurrier, who organized the original 1976 wine competition, assisted in the anniversary tasting.^{[citation needed]} Eight judges blind tasted nine of the ten wines evaluated. The evaluation resulted in the following ranking^{[citation needed]}

Results

Rank Wine

1.  USA – Clos Du Val Winery 1972
2.  USA – Ridge Vineyards Monte Bello
3.  France – Château Montrose
4.  France – Château Leoville Las Cases 1971
5.  France – Château Mouton Rothschild 1970
6.  USA – Stag's Leap Wine Cellars 1973
7.  USA – Heitz Wine Cellars 1970
8.  USA – Mayacamas Vineyards 1971
9.  France – Château Haut-Brion

Wine Spectator Tasting of 1986[edit]

Four of the judges were experts from Wine Spectator and two were outsiders. All tasted the wines blind.

Results

Rank Wine

1.  USA – Heitz Wine Cellars 1970
2.  USA – Mayacamas Vineyards 1971
3.  USA – Ridge Vineyards Monte Bello
4.  USA – Stag's Leap Wine Cellars 1973
5.  USA – Clos Du Val Winery 1972
6.  France – Château Montrose 1970
7.  France – Château Mouton Rothschild 1970
8.  France – Château Leoville Las Cases 1971
9.  USA – Freemark Abbey Winery 1969
10.  France – Château Haut-Brion 1970

30th Anniversary[edit]

A 30th anniversary re-tasting on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean was organized by Steven Spurrier in 2006. As The Times reported "Despite the French tasters, many of whom had taken part in the original tasting, 'expecting the downfall' of the American vineyards, they had to admit that the harmony of the Californian cabernets had beaten them again. Judges on both continents gave top honors to a 1971 Ridge Monte Bello cabernet. Four Californian reds occupied the next placings before the highest-ranked Bordeaux, a 1970 Château Mouton-Rothschild, came in at sixth."^[9]

The Tasting that Changed the Wine World: 'The Judgment of Paris' 30th Anniversary was conducted on 24 May 2006.^[10]

The 30th anniversary was held simultaneously at the museum Copia in Napa, California and at Berry Bros. & Rudd (Britain’s oldest wine merchant) in London, in association with Steven Spurrier, who created the original Paris event.

The panel of nine wine experts at Copia consisted of Dan Berger, Anthony Dias Blue, Stephen Brook, Wilfred Jaeger, Peter Marks MW, Paul Roberts MS, Andrea Immer Robinson MS, Jean-Michel Valette MW and Christian Vanneque, one of the original judges from the 1976 tasting.

The panel of nine experts at Berry Bros. & Rudd consisted of Michel Bettane, Michael Broadbent MW, Michel Dovaz, Hugh Johnson, Matthew Jukes, Jane MacQuitty, Jasper Morris MW, Jancis Robinson OBE MW and Brian St. Pierre.^[10]

The results showed that additional panels of experts again preferred the California wines over their French competitors.^[11]

Results

1.  USA – Ridge Vineyards Monte Bello 1971
2.  USA – Stag's Leap Wine Cellars 1973
3.  USA – Mayacamas Vineyards 1971 (tie)
4.  USA – Heitz Wine Cellars 'Martha's Vineyard' 1970 (tie)
5.  USA – Clos Du Val Winery 1972
6.  France – Château Mouton-Rothschild 1970
7.  France – Château Montrose 1970
8.  France – Château Haut-Brion 1970
9.  France – Château Leoville Las Cases 1971
10.  USA – Freemark Abbey Winery 1969

Three of the Bordeaux wines in the competition were from the 1970 vintage, identified by the Conseil Interprofessionel du Vin de Bordeaux as among the four best vintages in the past 45 years or more. The fourth Bordeaux was a 1971, described by the Conseil as "very good". Another official French authority, the Office Interprofessionnel des Vins, rates the 1971 vintage as "excellent".^[12]

The French wine producers had many years experience making wine, whereas the California producers typically had only a few years experience; the 1972 vintage was Clos Du Val's very first, yet it performed better than any of its French competitors.

Dolly Dimsum - Concept Well Executed

Whoever the owners are, they have done a fantastic job. They have managed to get so many things "right". The halal dimsum concept does not really attract me at first, I mean, quite a number of dishes required pork or pork lard. However I was pleasantly surprised - and also there are a lot of Malays who actually love dimsum.

First outlet at Avenue K. If you cannot get there, there is a new outlet at Nu Sentral.

Things they got right:

1. Decor - its modern chic meets understated Nyonya Baba, I esp like the latter part. Too often when its Nyonya Baba the whole shebang screams at you. The ambience is wonderful. Its not "expensive" and neither is it cheap. Just inviting.

2. Food range - good extensive list. Can take out the beancurd roll in sweet and sour sauce - does not belong anywhere on earth.

3. Most items were pretty good to excellent. The TDF item (to die for) has to be the Egg Custard Bun (salted egg caramel filling). Its heavenly. The hargau was exceptional too.

4. Service staff well trained and service was swift unless its peak lunch hours.

5. Tea selection was well thought out, not your low-grade stuff. Prices overall is akin to "city dining prices", not cheap but not overly expensive.

Overall, very well done.

Avenue K outlet opens at 11am, Nu Sentral outlet opens at 10am. I would go during weekends (early) for unobtrusive service and less crowds.

Must Watch Cantopop Concert June

If you like Cantopop, and you like to support amazing local talent ... you must go to this concert.


1 st & 2nd June 2016 @ NoBlackTie ... 9pm-11pm

Cover: RM60 without drinks


Trust me, she is my god- daughter ...

Borneo Asian Food by Sugarbun (Opens 9 May2016)

Let's be honest here, most of us who have visited East Malaysia find it hard to get good food there. Its not that they do not exist but rather we do not know where they are located. Sugarbun has had a long history and footprint in East Malaysia. However it is not the usual Sugarbun outlet that is opening here. Its the holistic approach to present very good East Malaysian food types in the form of a multi station restaurant concept, Borneo Asian Food.

I had the opportunity to taste almost every single item on the menu the other day for "food tasting". Here I have to say that I have not been paid to write this and actually they did not even ask me to blog about this.

A lot of thought and planning has gone behind the dishes, though most are simple stuff but the ingredients are well sourced with plenty from eco farms in Sabah. Trust me when I say the fish dishes were superb. It will probably take you 3-4 visits to try all dishes but its worth it.

I think Borneo Asian Food will be a success because there is a huge gap in the culinary stratosphere, even in the abundant foodie paradise that is in the peninsular. Maybe they will even get reprimanded by the government tourism offices in East Malaysia for being too successful - thus causing many not needing to travel to East Malaysia for food ... but of course there is still the scenery and fresh air to look forward to.

Let's drill down:


CHICKEN

This is from Sugarbun's original kitchen. Suffice to say their Broasted chicken is excellent, seriously better than KFC. they also have a sambal fried Chicken which is not bad. 

Why their chickens taste better ... its broiled then roasted, which strips off a lot more excess oil  thus the skin is crispier and you do not get the oily jelly feeling from KFC. The seasoning is pretty tasty too. 

A popular chicken dish is their Kano chicken, which may have been very popular among East Malaysians but may not suit the taste buds of West Malaysians as its a bit tomatooey, but I am sure some may like the taste.
Broasted Chicken 9.5/10
Sambal chilli Chicken 9/10
Kano Chicken 7/10




FISH

Their fish section should be the most popular once patrons get a taste of the fish. The garoupa fish soup is outstanding - taste of the sea and the garoupa tasted better than even live fish (if thats possible). According to the manager, all their fishes are "blast-freezed" which is technically the best way to preserve fish caught from the sea. Killing it while alive actually may cause their flesh to tighten up. You can have it with meehoon or served with soup of just fish and soup - all outstanding. Seriously the whole shebang is among the best "fish based soup" I have tasted. Its a lot like the fish head meehoon but better - you can see why as they do not need to fry the fish at all (which is a masking tactic for lack of freshness). I can have this everyday.

They also serve a milky version of the fish soup, which to me clouds the freshness of the soup a bit but that version would be closer to the local fish head meehoon.

But seriously, if you go to a full service Chinese restaurant, be prepared to pay 3x for these dishes. Great value.
Garoupa Fish Head Soup 10/10
Group Fish Head Milky Soup 8.5/10

ECO FISH

This deserves a separate mention as they are very proud of their Eco farms for this fish. Its actually tilapia, which has had a lot of bad viral news of late. However, these tilapias are from their eco farms in Sabah. It has to go with rice as its fried to a crisp, the meat is juicy and sweet, and goes so well with their two chilli sauces - both made in house with distinctive Sabahan flavours. Its always fried till golden brown, crispy and I keep seeing people eating everything right down to the bare bones of the fish. We know how good well fried seafood can be dipped with the right chilli - thats the mantra.
Eco Fish with Rice 9.5/10


OTHER NOTABLES


ASSAM FISH HEAD - A very decent version. 9/10

MUSHROOM CHICKEN SOUP - Don't be fooled by the common sounding dish, this surprised me on many levels. Together with ginger, it comes together very well, much like Drunken Chicken Ginger broth but there is no wine here as its halal. Still, the broth presents a flavour that reminds me of that dish and more. I guess I do not have to go to East Malaysia to get this dish ... as I certainly haven't found it in West Malaysia ever. Great find.  10/10

SARAWAK LAKSA - Unfortunately I did not get to take a picture of the dish but its more than excellent. Certainly not watery like some of the other versions we get here. Has depth of flavour in its soup base. Might not be the best Sarawak laksa I've had but this will do.  9/10

FRIED CABBAGE with DRIED PRAWNS - This is a simple dish but they do it oh so well. Must be the dried prawns, which is not that salty but very aromatic. Just a simple cabbage with fried prawns, you didn't know it could be so tasty. Best way to have it is with fried meehoon. Spectacular yet simple.  10/10

SABAH SEAWEED - Its a popular product in East Malaysia, and they have introduced it as a refreshing salad, or you will also come across it in their luxurious "ice kacang" - its got a good crunch to it. Btw the ice kacang is pretty good too and they use "attap (palm) sugar" which is aromatic but less sickeningly sweet.

SEA SALTED MACKERAL/SARDINES - We go to East Malaysia to try their seafood , just try these two dishes and you get really fresh seafood, now at decent prices without having to go to a Chinese restaurant with live aquarium. 9/10


OPENING DAY MONDAY 9th May 2016
Menara Hap Seng,  Level 1
Jalan P. Ramlee
Monday-Friday    7.30am-8.00pm
Saturday              10.00am-2.00pm
Sunday                 Closed

Eye In The Sky - Must Watch

This has to be one of the best films I have watched for the last few years. Not only was it entertaining, it had so much more to offer the audience.

Firstly, kudos to Malaysian government for not tinkering with the movie, heck if it was banned... most would kinda understand. To allow the movie in says a lot, in a good way. That we understand fanatics and we are against them.

The premise of the story is simple enough. Kill off a few on the top of wanted list, who happens to be radicals sending suicide bombers all over. Hence the subject matter is already relevant. But the movie brought it home to us in terms of recklessness, sheer insanity of the motive, and the depth of collateral damage.

Its kinda like James Bond except there is no James Bond. The acting was superb. What was supposed to be a simple target and kill turned into a humanity vs military professionalism vs diplomatic mess. Very real indeed.

How critical decisions cannot be made in a committee. What is responsibility, what is reprehensible. There is the commander, there are the politicians, the pilot who pulls the trigger ... you replace them with a different person... each will have differing levels of "humanity vs professionalism" that they bring to the job. 

Its a MUST SEE because it is highly entertaining, gripping ... yet make us all rethink the sheer madness of fanatics, and the awful collateral damage. As someone said about the recent suicide bombings ... it is no longer adequate to call them "suicide bombers".

Go watch the bloody movie.

btw .. Helen Mirren was outstanding.

The Pink Elephant In The Room

Why not just elephant in the room, why need to be pink ... cause its more significant than just being an elephant in the room ... ITS PINK as well!!! And the bulk of developed countries are ignoring it, for their own benefit. Tharman is saying something very important, something that needs addressing and redress. My comments in blue.

SINGAPORE (April 7): The world economy needs something like a modern-day Plaza Accord to safeguard growth against currency market volatility, according to Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam.

The remarks by the Singaporean official, who is also a former finance minister, come a week before Group of 20 officials gather in Washington to discuss the state of the world economy. Similar calls ahead of a G-20 finance ministers meeting in Shanghai six weeks ago were rebuffed by top officials who said the world economy isn’t on the brink of crisis.

“We can’t keep hoping that the US Fed will postpone normalization of interest rates,” Shanmugaratnam said on Thursday in Mumbai. “But we have to have some way of preventing that eventuality from also meaning significant instability in exchange rates and capital flows at a time when Japan, Europe and China are facing very different economic conditions.”

While central banks including China, Indonesia, the euro area and Japan have pumped more stimulus into their economies since the Shanghai gathering, the moves haven’t been part of a coordinated push. Shanmugaratnam said an agree- ment modeled on the Plaza or Louvre accords would help boost growth for emerging markets as the world economy gets stuck in “second gear.”

Tharman is saying something thats critical to the global economy. We need an accord, in particular an Asian accord, because globally the world has a few trillion in debt!!! - WHO THE FUCK DO WE OWE? ... bulk of debt is from developed countries printing press, the debt is a book entry and the printing press goes into overdrive overtime the developed economies encounter a crisis - be it oil crisis, internet exuberance, sub prime mess, etc... and every single time its the smaller, more disciplined economies that get whacked.

All the while, smaller economies had to accumulate reserves that kinda backs the currency, and all the while the developed nations create book entries to pump more money for themselves to get out of trouble. After the hoo-hah, the smaller economies come out worse every time. There is no reward for discipline but the system rewards big bullies.

Market ‘short termism’
“Imperfect, doesn’t guarantee stability, but it is better than leaving it untidy to the short termism of the markets and the self-reinforcing expectations of the market,” Shanmugaratnam said. Coordination on exchange rates would include intervention operations and involve “an understanding as to the zone in which we would like the major exchange rates to be,” he said.

Shanmugaratnam made the comments while sharing a stage with Indian central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan, an outspoken critic of unconventional monetary policy. In an interview on Wednesday, Rajan called the global economy “un- stable” and worried that a reluctance to return to normalcy would lead to “ QE infinity.”

While Rajan didn’t comment directly on Shanmugaratnam’s proposal on Thursday, he said they agreed on many issues.

“The question we have to ask ourselves is are we moving in the right direction, is there a better way, could we at least try and make sure that we don’t impose costs on each other as we try to co


me out of our own difficulties?” Rajan told the conference. “Certainly there’s a lot of room for discussion.”

‘Constant volatility’
The G-20 finance ministers ended a meeting on Feb 27 with a commitment to use all policy tools to strengthen growth. The officials also pledged, for the first time, to consult closely on foreign exchange rates.

At the Plaza Hotel in 1985, the US, UK, Japan and Germany agreed a deal to bring down the dollar through concerted sell- ing on the currency market. They came together a year and half later in Paris with the aim of stabilizing the greenback after successfully engineering its decline.

“It has to be on the table for us to think about and not expect perfection,” Shanmugaratnam told reporters on Thursday. “But the alternative is one of constant volatility, and the emerging countries especially at the receiving end.” — Bloomberg LP 

Deciphering Business Talkingcockology

I read an article from The Edge which piqued my interest in how our minds are numbed by the business talkincockology. This is all in jest but it would help if we all are a bit more blunt and straight forward with our views. My comments in blue.

SINGAPORE (March 30): Sembcorp Industries plans to manage costs tightly and optimise operations and resources while maintaining flexibility through prudent financial management, says CEO Tang Kin Fei in the company’s annual report for 2015. 

("manage costs tightly and optimise operations" - both notions were non existent before ??... yea, we used to spend flagrantly and never bothered to switch off the lights or aircon ... " 

This one gets me all riled up, "optimise operations and resources" ... THIS WAS EXACTLY WHAT YOU WERE HIRED FOR in the first place!!!, why tell us now??? Its like a choir boy from a Catholic church saying "I am supposed to be good, God is love". Fuck me silly.

"maintaining flexibility through prudent financial management" - to all fresh grads, when you can say something by coating the bad news in flowery extended words, you are on your way to be CEO - basically maintaining flexibility, what kind of flexibility, .. its sacking of staff of course... we are flexible to reduce staff, thats what you are really saying.)


Tang says the marine, energy and water engineering group must overcome the near-term challenges of the global down- turn in the oil and gas sector and a competitive power market in Singapore. “Our strategy is sound and as a group, we are in this for the long haul,” says Tang.

(err ... which listed company IS NOT IN IT FOR THE LONG HAUL??? "Strategy sound"... if it was, you would have anticipated or prepared for the huge correction in oil prices and downturn in global shipping business better. I am still waiting for someone to be honest and say that the oil price correction was much more severe than anyone can prepare for, at least then I know we are dealing with brutal honesty top-down.)

Sembcorp’s marine unit has been hurt by the sharp fall in oil prices. Sembcorp Marine, one of the world’s biggest marine and offshore engineering company, reported its first ever quarterly loss last month. Geographically, Tang sees India and China utilities operations growing into major profit contributors in the future. 

 Tang says it is important to build Sembcorp’s future as a global company.

“This means taking advantage of value-enhancing, strategically attractive opportunities that may arise, and also building platforms for growth.”

(Wow! the last line takes the cake, how to say a lot of words that are basically numb-skulling and brain-freezing. Saying a lot that is obvious without saying anything. Basically its like me saying:

Lubricate your posterior's cavity as we will propel a cylindrical shaped object through the orifice = Fuck your ass.)

Why US Election Matters - Why Global Investors Keep Looking To United States For Guidance

I am sure some will say, look into your own backyard when it comes to politics. Well, the average Malaysian is intimately involved and knowledgeable about our local politics. We are swimming against a huge tide but we know where we are and we can possibly see the light at the end of the tunnel (I hope).

But why bother about US election? I have always maintained that the US government is so well structured, with sufficient checks and balances that it is very hard for an idiot President to ruin the country... e.g. two terms of George W Bush would testify to that. But somehow, the thought of Trump being POTUS is quite unbearable - its like sending one of the privileged Kims (from North Korea) to head Unicef.

But to even consider that he could have enough nominations by the delegates is a major point of contention. How can an average person vote for him? That would indicate that there are sufficient rednecks, racists, with IQs below 90 around ... and thats scary. 

Are we suddenly back in 1901???

It now looks like a forgone conclusion that Trump will get the Republican nod. Thankfully Hilary will get the Democratic nod. Thankfully many of the Democrats who sided with Sanders will eventually vote for Clinton. Thankfully there are a substantive number of Republicans who got out voted in the primaries who will vote for Clinton so that Trump does not get in. 

To get an idea of the "value" Trump brings ... even Putin endorses him. What gives? Next thing you know Kim junior of North Korea will also endorse him.

Obama's election saw a huge turnout by blacks which helped him substantially. Trump has offended so many, blacks may still turn up but not as much as for Obama (mind you Obama will be campaigning too for Clinton) ... all minorities will turn out in droves to vote against Trump. Spanish speakers dominate many states, its just that plenty of them are not aligned to any party officially to make a dent in the delegates.

Why is POTUS important? Read below. But more, how is Trump going to deal with other world issues with his "summarise the arguments in two sentences" and just pick an option and go with it strategy. His proposed solutions are populist leaning, racist, over generalised opinions that border on stupidity ... 


WHY AMERICA MATTERS ....

Thats the first thing you learn when you step into an investment career, but do we know why. I mean, we know its big, but just how big? This map shows clearly why. It dissects out the states of the United States and correspond that to a country with the similar GDP for that state. 

Its an incredible map as it puts into perspective just how important that entire economy is ... its like over 50 countries .... That may partially explain why most Americans do not travel much, they have most of what they need there. For us, we may need to travel for business, but for them traveling within a few states there is like making business contacts with a few countries.

We also give Americans a hard time when we find out how few actually travel outside of America ... but just trying to cover a few states is already like covering a few countries, and each of the states are actually quite different in their make up and essence.

Oil @ USD25-USD40 For The Next 2 Years

The Premise - Oil like other commodity has been in a sharp down cycle, as in any commodity cycles, they are bound to turn up. Usually the the U curve of these commodity plays lasts anywhere between 2-5 years. If we look at the basic commodities, they have been on a downcycle since the subprime crisis in 2008 - since there had been easy money and over investment in particular by China. However oil held its own and in fact went to as above USD110 in 2013. Since then it has fallen to USD30 as of early February 2016.

Picking Bottoms - It is hazardous to say the least but at USD30 we are probably in the last quartile of correction. The justification being the cost of production. The cost of production below was in 2014, as of today we can impute a higher cost of between 10-20% based on weaker economies of scale and USD strength. 

Cost of Production By Country - We can surmise that Saudi Arabia wanted to crush Iran and the latter’s cost of oil extraction is between USD15-16, which would indicate some downside could be in store. Iran has received a lifting of sanctions which would see their current export of 500,000bpd to escalate to 2 million by April/May 2016. At below USD30, the number of players still operating profitably will just be among the Middle Eastern producers. 

If you were to look at The following two charts above, it will tell you that the surge in oil prices above USD110 over the last 4 years have largely been by increased US production. By and large, we can argue that Saudi’s move to weaken oil prices was two pronged: to kill off the shale producers and weaken Iran’s power - the former has been well achieved and the latter has also shown to be effective. 

The Rebound Limit - Yes, we are probably in the last quartile of the trough but one thing is clear there will be a limit in a rebound as Saudi will not want the shale producers to restart their production easily again. Hence if you look at cost of production chart, that objective can be attained by keeping the rebound range to USD45-60 over a sustained period.

Since the fateful November 2014 OPEC decision to maintain output, defend their market share, and kill off high-cost producers around the world, particularly North American shale and oil sands - we are left with Saudis crushing Iran being the last objective. However since the lifting of sanctions for Iran the Saudis would know that it is almost fruitless to continue doing so. As the cost of shale is at least USD60-70 on average, most have closed shop and declared bankruptcy.

Consensus Estimates - If you were to look at the average consensus estimates by EIU, IMF and other international agencies, its between USD60-65 over the long run. They could all be wrong, and even if you were to discount their estimates, it should still be in the range of USD50. That should be where we should be looking at over the next 2-4 years.

The Breakeven Factor - On the first page we have looked at the extraction cost of oil per country. But that is not the key factor, every country have differing needs and diversification of industries. The more reliant you are on oil, the more it will be impacting the country’s budget. Hence even when Iran have their sanctions lifted, and technically it can ramp up to 2mn-3mn barrels a day, plus their extraction cost is below USD20 per barrel - it does not mean they are laughing. Iran needs oil to be at USD140 to balance the budget. If you think (like me) that part of the reason the Saudis are letting oil price crash is to hurt Iran, then the Saudis are in no mood (yet) to let oil price rise at a time when sanctions has been lifted. 

Hence almost all the Middle Eastern countries have very high breakeven levels, but some have ample reserves to see this through for sometime still. Namely Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and UAE. The rest are finding it very tough.

Saudi Arabia's net foreign assets have been dropping at almost $8 billion per month meaning the company has only 5-6 years of reserves left. While the company's Saudi Aramco IPO might raise much needed cash, it is a show of desperation that might not be best for the country.

More so, compared to other countries, Saudi Arabia has the best situation. Other countries like Libya, Venezuela, Iran, and Nigeria are in much more need of cash. Non OPEC producers such as Russia might be looking to get in the action and make a deal to cut production. A relatively minor production cut of 1-2 million barrels per day could easily push oil prices back up to $60 or more barrels per day.

Saudi Arabia might call it a day since the sanctions has been lifted for Iran as it probably not much use to keep oil prices below USD30 for a persistently long time. Saudis’ strategy now lies in achieving its other objective, to dismantle the US/Canada shale oil production infra. But you can see that US oil production is still high and is taking its time to reduce, hence I think the Saudis will wait a few more months to see further declines in US production before reversing oil price trend.

The Big Picture - Why are we in the present predicament? Global capital spend for big miners was just US$4bn in 1991, that went to US$14bn in 2001. China was a key factor after it entered WTO in 2001. Global mining capex went from US$14bn a year in 2001 to US$125bn a year in 2012. The over investment largely by China has to work itself off. In a slowing global economy and a substantive slowing in China growth can explain a large part of the commodities down cycle over the last 5 years.

The Decisive Factor - Besides the Iranian factor, the Saudis likely will not feel comfortable about the chances of a US output boost until production in the United States falls to 8.5 million barrels per day. But it could be next year before US output hits that level. US oil production has fallen to about 9.2 million barrels per day, according to preliminary weekly EIA data. Until there is shock and awe in terms of bankruptcies and super-low prices, there is going to be unrelenting selling pressure in this market.

Have You Met Her

Friends have been complaining that I don't post much nowadays. Tired la after 9 years on the net. Don't feel like talking about stocks cause you get no credit and just get whacked whether a stock goes up or down - up (oh he works with syndicates), down (he is useless). Of course I can take the high road and say I couldn't care what haters say, but at the end of it, why do it at all. Might as well keep quiet. 












I do not allow adverts so I don't get paid a cent no matter how you cut it. Plus certain authorities do monitor what you post (on stocks) and its not to give me a prize if you know what I mean. So its not worth it.



Then my friends say that I should at least go back and do postings which got my blog popular in the first place - i.e. good selection of pretty Asian girls' photos. So here's Sabina Altynbekova. I know we would all be volleyball fans if we can just watch her play for Khazakstan. She is 20 this year and stands at 6 foot.