tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18183714.post1956883731181453150..comments2024-03-08T20:25:35.963+08:00Comments on Malaysia-Finance Blogspot: Sub-Prime Losses Overstated?SalvadorDalihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06868577716920232901noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18183714.post-18141632953932241412008-06-10T14:56:00.000+08:002008-06-10T14:56:00.000+08:00The next shoe to drop i think is the derivatives m...The next shoe to drop i think is the derivatives market, namely CDS, the amounts of total derivative trades are just staggering :- <BR/><BR/>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aH_TsBEHBRqI<BR/><BR/>The gross market value of credit default swaps, which measures the cost of replacing all existing contracts, almost tripled to $2 trillion in the second half of 2007, compared with a rise of 53 percent in the first half, the BIS said.<BR/><BR/>Credit-default swaps, which make up the majority of credit derivatives, are financial instruments investors use to speculate on the ability of companies to repay debt or hedge against the risk they won't. <BR/><BR/>---------------------------<BR/><BR/>To support your crude oil decrease in price argument:-<BR/><BR/>Oil shortage a myth, says industry insider<BR/>http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/oil-shortage-a-myth-says-industry-insider-842778.html<BR/><BR/><BR/>Although it is contrary to my belief that oil price will move upwards still.<BR/><BR/>Good news is that the FED has started trying to talk down inflation by Verbal Intervention. This has improved the dollar and could turn the markets up in the short term, but i still have my doubts about the longer run.<BR/><BR/>My personal feeling is that they will try to come up with some scheme/s to control inflation which will include collaboration with other central banks and oil producing countries. Since they can't actually raise or decrease interest rates without adverse effects.<BR/><BR/>Will the scheme/s work? only time will tell but i am not as optimistic, hence my prediction for oil to go up.Opinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12319903923025512120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18183714.post-54229767405393228982008-06-09T13:15:00.000+08:002008-06-09T13:15:00.000+08:00I do not know who to believe in."BIS says the ABX ...I do not know who to believe in.<BR/><BR/>"BIS says the ABX overestimates triple-A losses by 62%."<BR/><BR/>I am sure people in BIS are smart, so are people behind derivatives, rating agencies, LIBOR, central banks etc.<BR/><BR/>Anyway I am going to 'buy insurance'<BR/>1. Reduce expenses and try to increase incomes.<BR/>2. Reduce percentage of <A HREF="http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Financial+assets" REL="nofollow">financial assets</A> in my portfolio substantially.Encik Wanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08149554128574046311noreply@blogger.com