tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18183714.post115284960646422984..comments2024-03-08T20:25:35.963+08:00Comments on Malaysia-Finance Blogspot: SalvadorDalihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06868577716920232901noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18183714.post-1153111980974326552006-07-17T12:53:00.000+08:002006-07-17T12:53:00.000+08:00October because of seasonality reasons, if markets...October because of seasonality reasons, if markets rally too early, say August Sep period... what will they do for the last quarter. Its also a perception thing, most brokers, managers are waiting for the bonus period and usually all go charging ahead in the last quarter so that all will have a decent bonus.<BR/><BR/>The other thing is that mid year rallies usually end in tears, if a market shoots up in Aug/sep, they nowhere else to go but really down ... hence October is always the favourite month for major corrections.SalvadorDalihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06868577716920232901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18183714.post-1152953605417395932006-07-15T16:53:00.000+08:002006-07-15T16:53:00.000+08:00Am a regular of your regular view on global financ...Am a regular of your regular view on global finance market.<BR/><BR/>I have some opinions with regards to your latest posting.<BR/><BR/>The recent rebound from global equities market may be over-reacted to the news of the mellow comment from Fed. Taking a look at the fed funds rate since 1955, the rates went up from 1955 to 1981 after which it dropped for 23 years. This cycle may be reversed now with a slew of further rate hikes with us standing at the early stages of a major uptrend which will probably last for years.<BR/><BR/>Increasing the rates probably is to protect the greenbag from collapsed as people continued to exchange their dollars for tangibles. Back in 1970s, Fed ignored the calls from analysts but went on with its rate hiking programming without caring too much about assetvalues. Fed can tolerate a recession or a bear-market but it can't survive if people realise that the US dollar is basically a junk currenly which will only lead to inflation. <BR/><BR/>With the rate hikes alone, it will add pressure to what you called, fundamentally positive companies. Yes, they are sound now but if the plunge in stock market back in May is a note to take, we may be heading for recession 15-18 months from May. End 2007 is the key period to note.<BR/><BR/>Short term, energy prices are over-reacted with political risk. But going ahead, the risk of big plunge in consumer and corporate confidence may be take toll and global inbalance may kicks in. <BR/><BR/>My worst fear!!!! BOJ's latest rate hike can be viewed as a sign of economic confidence as Japan continues to recover. I do not see further rate hikes in near future as the BOJ fears the more hikes may just stall the world's 2nd largest engine. <BR/><BR/>Lastly, why do you say the market will not stage a strong rebound until late October?<BR/><BR/>Just my humble view. CHeers~sopskysalathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18397095388809196477noreply@blogger.com