Thursday, March 21, 2013

What Market Was That?

If we had the kind of market we had on Thursday for 3 months, watch the velocity of money rushing through the economy, the multiplier effect would be enormous. Catching everybody off guard. I mean, Muhibbah went very close to being LIMIT UP, my gosh, when did we ever hear of that phrase nowadays, so ancient.

OK, the Iskandar linked counters led the way for the last few days. Like I said before, for any kind of bull to appear, there has to be a leader. Remember this theme because after the elections we will have a genuine bull run, probably with the same actors and supporting actors.

No one could believe what was happening on Thursday because the election was supposed to be so damn close, to be called any day, and yet you seemingly have the start of the mother of all bull runs appearing. So many retail players were sidelined, but can't help it, the lure of a trend is soooooo  ... intoxicating. Your discipline is called into question and kinda gave way very quickly to the temptations of the 'flesh'. How weak we humans are ...

We can all study the best business books but the madness of crowds usually prevails. Will this run continue? Looks like it. Very hard to stop a moving train. Of course unless parliament is dissolved, that could drag things down somewhat. So its all the more exciting and unbelievable ..... its like a casino that declares that they have changed all the odds in favour of players against the bank (blackjack, banker has to draw till 18; the roulette 0 means all numbers get paid off ...) so you have this wonderful casino but management of the casino also said that there is an earthquake registering 9 on the Richter scale that is coming anytime and there is a house fire in the kitchen that could engulf the casino in a matter of hours .... and yet the punters flock in knowing full well the pending uncertainties. Wallah!

Can these kind of market days suddenly appear? NO. Is it orchestrated somewhat ... if you ask me privately, I will give you a very detailed answer. Things like this cannot happen in our markets unless you can see a confluence of economic and fundamentals and liquidity according to the textbook. You tell me, can the market move like it did with so many funds flowing in, throw in the "syndicates" (in my dictionary "syndicates" is not illegal or sinister but the gathering of two or more people agreeing to do something together). You tell me, can they all suddenly wake up and decide all at the same day to "move stocks".

Just be careful, people.

7 comments:

bruno said...

Be careful or be very very careful should be the right use of correct words.

Euphoria and the feeding frenzy by the media and its lines of financial(not political) cronies have led the crowd to be very very complacent.Markets will only topped when there is no sign of one single bear in sight.No wonder smarties called it a bear trap.

Lets look at the US markets,as eventually it will be the US markets which will be calling the shots.All the assurances by federal reserve chairman Benny and his flock of doves,that interest rates will stay at zero,yeah nada, cannot even push the heavyweights called the S&P 500 into new heights as the dow continues into making new highs after new highs.

With the S&P 500 hovering near 1565for the last month or so,the magical figure looks like it will never,never come.Not in this bull cycle anyway.

Now,lets try figuring out.If 1565 which is so bludy close seems so very very far away,like planets apart,what will be the very obvious potential easy path the S&P 500 will take.Will it go the way financial experts are predicting which is 1625-1650 by year's end or take the easy way to 665-500?Maybe we should ask the class dunce.

solomon said...

Pronouncing a bull market now, down when parliament dissolved and up thereafter.....

I am buying a train ticket for this ride to Ipoh, hopefully don't end up in Thailand.....

Salvador Dali said...

solomon,

i don't think i announced a bull market yesterday ... i am hinting that its a bit orchestrated in a way that many retail players cannot ignore ... i believe there is no justification for such exuberance at this juncture with elections so near ... but markets confound us time and again, its more a warning rather than a an encouragement to jump in.

pepsicola said...

Dali, what do you think of the asian market ? It's been like a yo yo.
I put my hard earn money into unit trust, investing heavily in the asian market.Sorry for getting sidetrack

solomon said...

My bad then....thank you for your caveat emptor, might have missed the last sentence...

Ya it is akin to the Last call in roulette table....see how the groupier decided the next course then....

bruno said...

The markets took back on Friday what it gave up on Thursday.This bullmarket is very resilient,because market participants are getting more and more complacent.They have all bought into the Bernanke doctrine and mentality.

The herd are getting fed and been bombarded with this 1625-1650-1700 by as early middle to end of year thing.The more bulls the better it is for the bears to soon have a very sumptous meal on them.

I still maintain the view that the dow will be headed for the 5000-3000 range in the next few years.

If Big Ben is still the fed chairman when the dow reaches 5000-3000 range,he and the herd of bulls will be squatting on Wall Street wailing like babies with only their boxers on.

With this type of complacency I wouldn't be surprised if the dow loses a few thousand points by middle of this year.We are still up a few points in the S&P,giving up ten points today.

The feds and their counterparts have no other choices but to keep jawboning their support for the markets.They are in this too deep,infact its almost all into their asses.Most if not almost all the toxic papers are in the feds vaults.

The feds and their counterparts are stalling for the markets to give them the time to suck in new suckers for them to exit.With the US economy slowly picking up,time is what the feds and their cronies do not have.They needed years to slowly to exit the toxic dumps.It will just be a matter of time before the markets forced Big Ben's balls to be sandwitched between the legs of sawhorses.Just imagine how painful if the balls are crushed between sawhorses.

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