Asian Business Issues - Rants & Raves, Illusions & Collusions etc.
Imenwe,I was going through Dali's older postings when I saw your comment.I am mostly a technical trader,and sometimes do check on the fundamentals.But my trades on entries and stop losses are all based on technicals.Most of the times commercials leave elephant's footprints on the charts,prior before market action.Soybeans at 12.00 is a very consevertive figure.I expect soybeans to trade at 10.00 or below sometime before middle of next year.Soybeans have topped.The trend is definitely down.But of course there will be corrections along the way.It is just a matter of time before the bottom falls off.Just like any speculative trading,never forget to put in your stop losses.Like CPO has drop to 2,100 and there is still room on the downside.My target for CPO is 1,750and below.Commodities trading is a take no prisoners game and it will always overshoot and surprised even the most experienced players.I have paid my tuition fees a very long time ago.Take care.
And one more thing That I left out.Do you know that now is the low yield season of oil palm.No,I do not know.But if now is the low yield season of oil palm,and prices are so depressed,what will happen when it is the high yielding season.Do we have to extend twelve months credit to the Chinese and Indians and beg them to take the palm oil.The most important thing in trading is to do your own homework.Because your job is to take money from the guy,who is taking a position against you.Do not trade on news or reports from trading houses,because you will lose more often than winning.
Bruno, Thanks for the tip. I agreed there is a very very big surplus of palm oil. Not to mention Indonesia has surplus also. May I know which months are the high yield season?
Ninja turtle,you are welcome.I am more a technical trader and a contrarian one,so I do not follow the fundamentals as closely as technicals.Sometimes I am in a trede for hours only,but mostly a few days.But if I am on the ride side of the trend I might hang on much longer,like a few weeks.Maybe if Imenme were to tuned in,he can supply us with the information.He is more like a fundamental guy.
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