Wednesday, October 17, 2012

In Life, How Many Decades Do You Have?

The smarter ones (who knows Cantonese) will know that the headline is a famous phrase from a very popular TVB series a couple of years back. How many decades does one have in their lifetime? We can sometimes waste 10 years pining for someone, or unwilling to change for 10 years because of a grudge with a family member or close friend.... why waste 10 years, its not like we have so many 10 years to waste things on regret.

That is why I always think of my longevity in terms of how many more World Cups I will get to watch. Guys, when you put it in that frame of reference, its very sobering. How many more World Cups will you get to watch??? Less than 10 or 15? If something is less than 10 or 15, shouldn't you be more "concerned", maybe you should really watch one LIVE at the venue ... and it is sobering because, we may not have that much time on earth to really do all that we want. 

Sidetrack to investments, below shows a comparison of how asset classes have performed over the last 10 years. If its commodities, thing can go up and down a lot, even over a few months. But when you talk about normal business industries, its a reflection of a trend, do not go against it because they reflect a paradigm shift. If steel is bad, it is unlikely that somehow steel will stage a 200% rebound in the next 5-10 years.



Oil and maybe silver  may be because of the rise of consumerism and the rise of middle class populations in emerging countries, and I do not see that abating. Gold is a reflection on the real value of floating currencies and I also do not see printed money increasing in value anytime soon, will central banks be buying back most of the stuff they printed recklessly over the last 10 years???

Japan will be dead for as long as I am alive I think because for the last 20 years they have not addressed the crux of their problems and not likely to do so with their structured way of business relations and politics.

You can see that consumer stocks are up and up and that should continue. Financials may bounce back eventually but you will be better off to bet elsewhere for the next couple of years. Telecommunications is going through what airlines went through 20 years ago, they get bigger but they make it harder for themselves to make money by undercutting and buying subscribers, leave them alone.

Surprisingly healthcare was weak,probably only in the US which had many reforms to bring them back down to earth. As this is a US index, I think healthcare in developing nations are still good. I would still favour energy, material, technology and consumer staples for the next 5 years.

1 comment:

Woky said...

Salvatore dali, i agree with your analysys this time particularly Healthcare and furthermoee, not inluded in your data, life sciences/bio mdeic