Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Vellapan To the Markets?

A good friend just got back from holidays with her kids and asked what happened to the Malaysian markets? She said that I wrote about the bull market being back and so on. I said, yes, everywhere else the bull is moving steadily... but in Malaysia there are two things which pulled it back. 


One was the article saying EPF had sold so much shares. That article was true and factual but not complete. And by being incomplete, it gives off the wrong signal to a lot of retail investors. We all know how much retail investors' participation there was since the beginning of the year. Go to any broking gallery now and ask them what shares they are buying, they'd be saying how to buy shares when even EPF is selling.


The article is incomplete in that to be a fair article, it has to note the times when EPF has been selling, how about every March for the past few years? I suspect it is portfolio rebalancing rather than an actual selling because, seriously, the article did not note the amount of local shares EPF is holding. It is more likely to be a seasonal effect, just as EPf is more likely to do window dressing towards year end closing. 


As a percentage of holdings its so miniscule. But if you did not elaborate, the general public will think something is amiss. Anyway, bygones be bygones.


The second effect which is a relatively new phenom, as families grew richer, school holidays are a must to venture somewhere. It is almost akin to the Western world's Christmas holidays. This is a relatively new phenom, maybe for the past 3 years or so. There you go, shifting cultural and social norms. I can safely say that almost one third of the movers and shakers in the market place were on holidays - how to move the markets?


Then I tried to extricate myself by saying, the bulls are primarily first into indexed stocks, which is why index wise everywhere have held up. Then after a while, it will move to the broader market. I know one and all are hoping that I am right.

7 comments:

Green Bull said...

STI also failed to go near 3,200 high that they reached last year, and had been struggling to hang on 3,000 for the past one month. Any comment?

Green Bull said...

STI also failed to go near 3,200 high that they reached last year, and had been struggling to hang on 3,000 for the past one month. Any comment?

Kingsmen said...

lots of retailers got deliberately gored by the bull's horn recently. CSL...classic run and dump case....TMS ...conningly cornered to 40cts level fishing the retailers to exercised its warrants...then dump its share price ahead of the listing of new conversion warrants....drbhicom....3.20 (house is yelling buy calls endlessly)...and who can forget the sanichis, winsuns, versatiles, harvest, wijayas, syfs, ytlpowers, deepaks....and now the ariantec globals....

every runs are classical dumping grounds for these ravaging financial wolves.

markets needs to come down for cheaper entries to buy otherwise please enjoy the 6% epf is throwing at us.

Remnant 888 said...

Another two hear-says that ppl are reluctant to buy further in ...
1) the sell down of shares as the GE draws closer: a lot of guys are holding cash to catch the plunge in share prices (as do the 2008 post-GE results)...
2) US markets is recovering albeit slowly and Euro markets is at great discounts so these're seen as offering better potential ...

Nevertheless local mkt is holding on quite well, as if just waiting for a catalyst to kick in or its butt ..!

ahbeng said...

dali u may be right. wait till end of this month we will see fireworks.
get ready everyone. like chinese proverb, "everything is ready, only awaiting East wind."
and the East wind would blow latest by next week

ahbeng said...

all those excuse given by ppls, EPF, conman manipulation, pre-erection sell down, are pure nonsense.
in my 20yrs in mkt, i cant recalled of anyone year mkt doesnt have any worries. all we have to know is the mkt follow the malaysian mindset. slow to react and when react overreact.

emacro said...

Yes EPF is selling some shares, but WHO is buying. The last few weeks 'Foreign' institutions seem to be net buyers, while 'Local Inst' and 'Retail' net sellers, according to Bursamalay sia...