Thursday, May 26, 2011

Commentary On Selected Stocks

UEM Land - Rose to the top of volume charts but price was still in the negative territory. Obviously there was a push, looks to be a sustainable one but will have to take out a lot of stale bulls holding the stock when it went above RM3.00. Indications are that Singapore government agencies will be inking some mega land deals in Iskandar region.

MAA - The boy who cried wolf. So many times that many are dismissing it. Following the torrid run up recently, the stock has held up extremely well, indicating a genuine deal is likely. Submission has been made to Bank Negara for approval. Apparently should be forthcoming very soon. Pricing may not be as enticing as some silly rumours but still good. The deal is likely to be struck around 2.5x book which is close to RM2.30 range.

Century Software - Following the bonus issue, looks like wanting to have a run. Pure trade.

K Fima - Strong whispers on taking the other subsidiary private, which will boost liquidity and earnings visibility, and unlock some value. OK to buy and hold.

http://collider.com/wp-content/uploads/Maggie-Q-image-1.jpg

NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). I may have a position in the counter already. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

6 comments:

Jeff said...

Hi Dali,
Regarding your short note on MAA i do agree a deal is forthcoming soon. On the pricing based on NTA i think 3-3.5x is more likely cos MAA is a composite insurer unlike the recent deals which is based on the General Insurance business only.

In my opinion since the deal is 100% sale of MAAB (as per Bursa Disclosure) which holds both life & general insurance it should command a higher premium not forgeting the Takaful sale will come later.

However looking at Jerneh which recently proposed A large dividend & capital repayment after months of searching another business, MAA will take a shorter route cos TY is not selling the Takaful business now. The Takaful business generated may stand alone & enable MAAH to declare a capital repayment of RM1.50 to RM2.00

In this respect only then the investing community will hold on to MAAH shares otherwise this wolf cannot make money.

Layman said...

Dear Dali,

Any view on hwgb and w recently?
thanks

Jeff said...

Dali,
CAn i answer layman for u?

Layman.......If u buy or have hwgb u are living on hope & prayer. These syndicates will take your money cos u will be the last to know on their plans

They let u make one round, spread rumours, force u to buy back, then get u to average down until u can take it no more.

They are masters in human behaviour, they will play tricks with your mind & at the end of the day take your money & laugh at your stupidity for not going your homework. All their deals will be unbelievable & yet we fools believe them.

At the end of the day, their contracts or mou will lapse & we will be left holding the baby.

I have been following Dali's blog for some time & i can't remember even once he recommends shitty counters. Perhaps he has learned the syndicates secret & stayed out of their game.

Sorry but i had to say my 2 cents worth cos i had learned the hard way. I do trade the shitty couners sometimes but NEVER EVER PICK UP or AVERAGE. Gain or pain it all happen in 3 days with a cut loss strategy.

Loo said...

Adding on to Jeff's comments, I just want to say that there are so many more counters with fundamental which are a safer bet. Unfortunately many still insist on sticking to highly speculative ones. Many of my friends have been eyeing HWGB but I have gracefully asked them to avoid. Counters like this may be in the top 10 everyday but are also top disaster stocks too.

Layman said...

Jeff,

thanks for your input.

But records showed royal family of Peral owned 35% of it. What you said possible to happen?

Jeff said...

Layman,
HWGB is now at 0.425. Down > 30% since the last posting. What i feared has happened.
Yes the Perak Royalty may have it but these syndicates use them as as they hold on behalf of the PR.

Beneficial owner is the syndicates. We fools would believe that story of the big boys holding big stakes hence we do not cut but do the opposite & average.

The PR will buy quality shares like Gamuda which the held for years & sold majority when the md Lin cashed out some time ago.

I hope you learn from this as i have cos it has cost me dearly. I only play contra now & do not pick up any shares.

Am only waiting for some signal on MAA hope i have it when the deal gets done. This is living on hope & prayer again but the difference is that there is Zurich there but in HWGB its all hot air.

Sorry mate.............