Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Market Down .... Look For Reasons

The classical reaction by pundits and so called experts... market move up or down, they need to find a reason for it. When you attach reasons to market movements - we have to bear in mind if its justified, yes there can be a lot of market moving macro factors such as liquidity, currency or interest rate outlook, somebody important said something, etc... but by and large most market relevant information are being factored into prices continually.

The Sarawak election ceramahs over the weekend got people hopping and yelping that thats why the market moved down. Ya lor, 1,000 odd attended BN's events while more than 10,000 attended the opposition's rallies. Errr ... what did you expect? I said many times over the past few weeks that Sarawak elections is going to turn heads. I am surprised that people who can read market trends cannot read the people's sentiment.

I already planned weeks back to be completely zero on stocks by this Thursday. Its a reality, politics tie itself with the stock markets closely. Its not a matter of whether you choose to believe, its a reality. It has to do with certainty or uncertainty. I am sure my readers know where I stand politically, no need to guess. Even if my portfolio get whacked a bit because of certain outcome, I will be a happier person.

Do not equate your losses or gains with what happens in the political arena. The former is a far greater cause and quest, markets will always be there. Hence while the Sarawak wave is underway, we also have the Invest Malaysia day thing. Having said all that, its not exactly a fine time to be overly long on local stocks. What would you be giving up by not investing for 2 weeks?

Having said all that, the market corrected today because of exhaustion more than anything else. The oil and gas counters looked tired, even MAA looked plump and immobolised - what that meant is that when certain people try to push some stocks, nobody is willing to follow, thats market exhaustion, either all were too long or long enough in the market already. If its not going up, all you have are sellers reducing their position.

Alex Lu commented in his blog: "Our market has entered into a correction, with FBM-KLCI pulling back towards the 10-day SMA line at 1546. If this line is violated, the next support would be the 20-day SMA line at 1535. This is the most severe correction since the market recovered from its 3 months' consolidation (from January to March). In that recovery, the FBM-KLCI rallied from a low of 1476 on March 15 to hit a high of 1565 on April 4. If the current correction leads to a retracement of 38% of the recent gain of 89 points, then the FBM-KLCI may decline to 1531. That's quite close to the 20-day SMA line. I think the 1530-1535 level would be the likely downside limit for the current correction."

Anyway, Sarawakians to the fore, the last elections the East Malaysians said to West Malaysians "hey, you didn't tell us you were going to do that!!!", now they know and the Sarawakians will lead the rest this time around. Over this weekend, things are going to go viral ... If any of you disagree with my political position, you can go fuck yourself (pardon my language but I cannot think of a better phrase, who in their right fucking mind would think otherwise??!!).

Of course, some of my readers will say, hey don't put yourself out there like that lah .... dangerous you know. Sometimes when you live, you need to stand for something, or else why bother living at all.









p/s now, this posting is important enough for me not to put girl photos up...

22 comments:

nr.24 said...

great great post!

value investing in malaysia said...

Fellow Sarawakians, with your future generations in mind,vote for free and fair government!

Sunday's headline:
Sarawak Gaddafied Pek Mo!

limko said...

I like it, you got brain and you got balls!

David Koay said...

Totally agree with you!! It doesn't matter to have some short term pain especially those in the market. Malaysia's political situation is of much greater importance as compared to our pockets. Sarawakians, you're the kingmaker!! Vote wisely and oust corrupted leaders!!!

kinyuen said...

Totally agree with you that sometimes when you live, you need to stand for something, or else why bother living at all. I hope our friends in Sarawak will vote for their future.

nr.24 said...

do visit my blog anyway, i think yesterday i wrote the same thing.lol. theklsewolf.blogspot.com

Ping said...

Dali,
You have more balls than a golf range. RESPECT.

elizabeth said...

I did not sell down fast enough, but who cares... Come on Sarawak, this is your moment. Don't waste it!!

TehGK said...

I will be happier to lose money in Bursa should BN loses like shit

TehGK said...

I will be happier to lose money in Bursa should BN loses like shit

David Koay said...

Elizabeth and TehGK, very well said, very well said!! Sarawak people, dun disappoint us!!

Kingsmen said...

turning political? better to post something than nothing for people like us who have itchy ears....

brian.wong said...

Sarawakians where is ur balls? show us!

Ivan said...

great great post!

i super support u . . .!


for better generation, we need to CHANGE! or else, our next generation will suffer and hardly growth due BN makan too much!!!

Tea said...

Check out who are those top losers today and you will see how Bursa had voted with conviction...

Marco said...

I really hope BN will be kicked out from Sarawak. We need to show the Rakyat power as the fool BN is going to build a rare earth processing plant in Kuantan and a nuclear power plant in peninsular Malaysia.

Wei Li said...

You stand for something and you're vocal about it. For that, I salute you.

ABC said...

second class citizen.
vote out this UM NO LAW and Binasa Negara (BN) and corrupt goverment...

ABC said...

kick this UM NO LAW & (BN) Binasa Negara & corrupt out from this EARTH

wiggle17 said...

I think you Sarawakians have the chance to re-shape history, not only for Sarawak but also for Malaysia. We are ready in the Peninsular but we can't do it without your support. Vote for the future of Sarawak and our beloved Malaysia!!

novusconcepts said...

Dear Malaysians.

We Singaporeans support you if you dare to seek change. However, it would be disappointing if it is not forthcoming. What if the bumis vote the other way?

What will you do then? BN and PKR balance each other? Is PKR able to run the economy like we do in Singapore? Too many uncertainties

Kenneth said...

Any comments on this?

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/utusan-tells-bn-to-ignore-chinese-vote-after-sarawak-polls/