Wednesday, March 16, 2011

High Illicit Financial Outflows



Well, following my article on Koon Yew Yin, I managed to be in touch with the man and has had a few tele-conversations. I was about to write on this issue when he highlighted to me that he already wrote something on it.

My take is, have a look at the nations with high measured illicit financial outflows, and then think of the similarities all these countries have in common. The sore point is, Malaysia is very tiny, and we certainly cannot "afford" such things. I mean the other countries, save for Venezuela, really can "afford" to have such outflows. I think the only country with justifiable outflows on the list is Mexico, with the huge number of illegals flowing out to the US.





Royal Commission Needed on Illicit Outflows


Written by Koon Yew Yin Friday, 11 March 2011 11:21 Columnists

Although much attention has been focused on the fight against corruption, the evidence shows that this problem has in fact worsened. According to the Transparency International ranking of how corruption-free Malaysia is, the country has shown a steady slide downwards. Malaysia’s placing has declined from 36th position in year 2000, to 43 in 2007, and 56 in 2010. (Note: First place ranking means least corrupt.)

Table:
Malaysia’s ranking in perception of being free of corruption, 2000–10

Year

Ranking

Total countries

2010

56

178

2009

56

180

2008

47

180

2007

43

179

2006

44

163

2005

39

158

2004

39

145

2003

37

133

2002

33

102

2001

36

91

2000

36

90

Source: Transparency International Corruption Perception Index, 2000–10.


Massive illicit financial outflow
The latest evidence of worsening corruption comes from a report by Washington financial watchdog Global Financial integrity (GFI) which found that Malaysia lost US$291 billion or RM889 billion through illicit outflows in the period between 2000 and 2008 (Malaysiakini , Jan 20, 2011)

The report shows that there has been a massive illicit capital outflow from the country during the past decade. What is especially worrying is that the outflow has tripled in the period of eight years monitored. No country can afford the systemic outflow that Malaysia is experiencing. It could well bankrupt the country and lead to instability.


An unknown quantum of this outflow is due to financial gains accumulated through corruption, kickbacks and other illegal means. How much specifically is due to these various causes is disputable, and can only be determined by a thorough investigation such as through the establishment of a Royal Commission.


An offer by
Dev Kar – one of the two authors of the report and a former senior economist with the International Monetary Fund – to help Malaysia find out the reasons for the outflow, has predictably been met with deafening silence.


In the meantime, the authorities are having their knickers in a twist in trying to respond to the GFI report.


On Jan 21, the Prime Minister Najib Razak, according to a Bernama report, stated that Bank Negara would provide specific comments on the report.


On Jan 25, the Deputy Finance Minister Donald Lim claimed that Bank Negara had already begun its probe and that the public could expect a response shortly.


On Jan 26, the Deputy International Trade and Industry Minister Mukhriz Mahathir contradicted the two earlier statements and said that the government would not look into the report.


Why the government refuses to investigate and stop the illicit financial outflows (which could be contributing to the country’s ultimate financial bankruptcy) is beyond anybody’s comprehension.


All citizens and taxpayers must demand that the government establishes a Royal Commission to investigate the astounding US$291 billion illicit outflow and to determine the extent and the reasons for the outflow.


Connection between wealth accumulation and illicit outflows


It is important to emphasize what the GFI report author Dev Kar pointed out when he made the offer of assistance to the government, i.e. that Malaysia's income distribution is highly skewed.


According to the latest (albeit slightly dated) 2004 World Bank survey data, the poorest 20 percent of the Malaysian population on the lowest income ladder rung accounted for just 6.4 percent of total gross national income.


By way of rough comparison, India’s poorest quintile accounted for 8.1 percent of total national income in 2005.
India’s skewed distribution of income was found to be an important driver of illicit flows. The reason is that a skewed distribution of income means that there are a relatively larger number of high net worth individuals than in a country with a more equitable distribution of income. These individuals are one of the primary – if not the main – drivers of illicit flows.


We do not have far to look for high net worth individuals. Besides the people that appear on Forbes list of richest Malaysians who can account for their wealth, there are many names that have not found their way into the list of extremely wealthy Malaysians for various reasons, including lack of proper accounting or disclosure.


These names are slowly but surely beginning to be exposed in this new era of transparency and Wikileaks.


The latest name to be in the limelight is the son of the Sarawak Chief Minister Taib Mahmud. According to his estranged wife who has filed a RM400 million divorce claim against him, Mahmud Abu Bekir Abdul Taib has income and properties running in the billions of ringgit. She has asked the court to declare Mahmud Abu Bekir’s other assets including seven luxury cars, thousands of hectares of land in Sarawak and shares in 15 companies as jointly-acquired property.


This court listing of merely one of the Taib family members’ wealth is only the tip of the fabulous wealth accumulated by the Sarawak Chief Minister and his family members (four children, brothers and sister and numerous other kin). An important question would be whether this wealth estimated at many billions of American dollars has remained within the country or been transferred out.


The greater possibility is that much of the Taib family wealth – as well as that of other members of our political elite – is parked outside the country. This is clear from the behaviour of similar elites in the countries of the Middle East whose populations are presently rising up in anger at the way in which their country’s economies have been pillaged and ruined by their political elites.


What next?


So is Mukhriz’s response the end of the Barisan Nasional government’s concern on this matter? If it is, I predict that it will become the final nail in the coffin for their rule over the country which may eventually go the way of Tunisia and Egypt.





4 comments:

hishamh said...

I'm really curious to know how many people actually read through the report, and what it's really talking about.

I think the use of the word "illicit" here is way too strong. Either that or the authors are being deliberately provocative. I wouldn't take "illicit" here on face value.

I've been able to partially verify the trade mispricing channel, but I have serious doubts over the BOP channel.

It's no secret that capital's been leaving the country in the past decade. But then, that's not necessarily illegal or nefarious - there's been a general move towards outward direct investment in the absence of good investment opportunities locally.

I find it funny that the BOP "illicit" outflows in the report are approximately close to actual direct outward investment.

tanhc said...

Can I venture one question?
Being a country that's swarming with millions of both legal and illegal migrant workers as well as non-workers, how much would these people's repatriation of money to their homeland amount to? Has this amount of money been accounted for in the outflows? Or is this figure insignificant compared with the real illicit outflows?

Dreamer said...

Let the would be voters see for themselves what they have done and what they can do to fix the situation that we've gotten ourselves into! Vote for difference!

syakir said...

@tanhc

that is an interesting question.

assuming that there are 1 million (very conservative estimates here) illegal Indo workers in malaysia.

assuming each worker makes on average RM700/mo and spend RM200/mo

they transfer back the balance back to their families at home. about RM500/mo outflow that is not accounted for

RM500 * 12 months * 1 million workers = RM6 billion/year. at today's exchange rate that is USD3 billion/year of 'illicit' outflow!

that is only a very conservative estimate for Indo workers. haven't accounted for workers from Nepal, Bangladesh, Burma,yemen and etc

and haven't factor in some workers can make RM3k/mo -RM70k/mo (I remember that article on a bangladeshi making 3k in mamak store and a sex worker making RM70k per month)

so yes.. I would say it is highly probable the majority of that USD100 billion plus comes from illegal immigrants.