Sunday, August 02, 2009

Smart & Dumb Money - Their Favourite Trading Time




Smart traders and dealers already know this. Good to have factual confirmation. In a normal market, the not-so-smart money would buy in the first hour of trading. The smarter money would buy towards the close as there is ample indication of "trends and information digestion". Of course in a bull market, everybody is "smart" regardless of when you buy.

The Malaysian market has its nuances, especially those contra players (in and out within 3 days without having to pick up shares), and they tend to think by buying in the early morning, somehow they will get better full value of the full 3 days - that is a fallacy. Even when you are a contra player, your in and out depends largely on your price entry level for it to be a good trade. Time value is secondary to getting the right entry price.

Same for selling, most contra players will wait for the full 3 days to sell their positions. In a normal market, the best time to sell is in the first half hour of the final day.

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Bespoke: Below we highlight the average hourly performance of the S&P 500 since the March 9th lows. As shown, the first and last two hours of the day have seen the biggest gains, while the 11 AM to 2 PM time frame has been the weakest. The "smart money" indicator suggests that the dumb money (individual investor) trades in the morning while the smart money (institutional investor) trades at the close. Followers of the "smart money" theory like a weak open and a strong close. During the current rally, however, both the smart and dumb money has been buying. So far, they've all been pretty smart.

Avghourly



p/s photos: Sonja Kwok Sin Ney

2 comments:

Andrew Chua said...

Very useful confirmation of a long-suspected psychological quirk.

nice new light blue template, btw. prefer this to the pink one.

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solomon said...

Generally, you might be right. If the market is active, sell during the first hour of the morning.

But, if the stock is in bullish mode, it is irregardless right?