Friday, July 17, 2009

Why I Would Buy Astro Now

We all know the story, you can be buying because of the story 3 months ago or even 6 months ago. Why now for me? My views:

1) Ananda will take the bloody thing private because markets never value Astro properly.

2) The disparity in valuation looks at Astro as just a normal business, and not sufficient merit is given to it as a near monopoly, and its library of assets.

3) The lawsuits in Indonesia basically will hamper any investor interest for some time, might as well take it private.

4) Taking it private, then cleaning up the legalities, and reinjecting into a bigger media concern would be the way to go.

5) But why now... its because I like the volume traded, I like the price movements, and I like the timing (not like 6 months ago when bank lending is tight and there were a lot more uncertainty then)

I would buy up to RM3.70 for a 2-3 week hold. A buyout if it eventuates, should be in the vicinity of RM4.20. I doubt I would lose money even if Ananda stays on the sidelines.

p/s photo: Karen Mok

1 comment:

Tony said...

wow! you are spot on. I am impressed. Here is the latest story:
KUALA LUMPUR, July 18 — Malaysian tycoon Ananda Krishnan is set to restructure his premier satellite television operator, Astro All Asia Networks, in a RM9 billion transaction that will rank as the region's largest corporate exercise so far this year.

Under the proposed corporate deal, Astro's two main shareholders — the Ananda-controlled private investment company Usaha Tegas and Malaysia's state-owned Khazanah Holdings — will acquire the satellite television company's fledgling and still unprofitable international business interests.